Workshop on Sub- seasonal to Seasonal Predictability of Monsoons
|
|
|
- Carol Phelps
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Masaki Satoh (AORI, The University of Tokyo) Masuo Nakano (JAMSTEC) Tomoki Miyakawa (AORI, The University of Tokyo) Yoshiyuki Kajikawa (AICS, RIKEN) and NICAM group members Workshop on Sub- seasonal to Seasonal Predictability of Monsoons June 2015 NaNonal InsNtute of Meteorological Research Jeju, Republic of Korea hqp://s2spredicnon.net/workshop/
2 Outline IntroducNon Recent studies with NICAM 870m- mesh experiment Miyamoto et al. (2014, Geophys. Res. Le,.) Climatology: AMIP- type 20 years exp. Kodama et al. (2015, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan) MJO simulanons Miyakawa, T., et al. (2014, Nature Commun.) Indian summer monsoon onset Kajikawa, Y., Yamaura, T., Tomita, H., Satoh, M. (2015, SOLA) Boreal Summer ISO (BSISO) and TC genesis Nakano, M., et al. (2015, Geophys. Res. Le,.)! IntroducNon to BSISO and TC genesis! Experimental design and methods! Results! August 2004 (AcNve BSISO phases only)! August (various BSISO phases)! Summary
3 NICAM: Nonhydrostatic Icosahedal Atmospheric Model Development since 2000 Tomita and Satoh (2005, Fluid Dyn. Res.) Satoh et al. (2008, J. Comp. Phys.) First global dx=3.5km run in 2004 using the Earth Simulator (JAMSTEC) Tomita et al.(2005, Geophys. Res. Le,.) Miura et al.(2007, Science) K computer era (10PF; Kobe,Riken,2012) Toward higher resolunon: dx=870m (Miyamoto et al. 2013) MulN ensemble simulanons (Miyakawa et al Nat. Comm; Nakano et al. 2015, Geophys. Res. Le,.) MulN decadal simulanons (Kodama et al. 2015, JMSJ)
4 NICAM 870m-mesh run Miyamoto, Y., Kajikawa, Y., Yoshida, R., Yamaura, T., Yashiro, H., and Tomita, H., 2013: Deep moist atmospheric convecnon in a sub- kilometer global simulanon. Geophys. Res. LeQ., 40, DOI: /grl Miyamoto, Y., R. Yoshida, T. Yamaura, H. Yashiro, H. Tomita and Y. Kajikawa, 2015: Does convecnon vary in different cloudy disturbances? Atmospheric Science LeQers, accepted. DOI: /asl2.558.
5 GL08 28km GL09 14km GL10 7km GL11 3.5km GL12 1.7km GL13 870m 6UTC, 25 Aug K-computer by Y. Miyamoto (AICS,RIKEN)
6 NICAM 870m-mesh simulation Miyamoto et al. (2013,GRL) using the K computer dx=870 m dx=3.5 m 16 (a) (b) (c) (d) z (km) 14 z (km) 14 z (km) 14 z (km) 14 z (km) 14 (e) 0.87 w (m s ) x (grid) x (grid) x (grid) x (grid) x (grid) Radius- height cross secnons for composites of verncal velocity w 0
7 A 20-year climatology of a NICAM AMIP-type simulation Kodama, C., Yamada, Y., Noda, A. T., Kikuchi, K., Kajikawa, Y., Nasuno, T., Tomita, T., Yamaura, T., Takahashi, T. G., Hara, M., Kawatani, Y., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, in press, 2015, hkp://jmsj.metsoc.jp/eor/ pdf 14km horizontal mesh and 38 verncal levels up to 40km. 1- moment 6- category bulk cloud microphysics (Tomita 2008). No cumulus convecnon parameterizanon parameters tuned by several seasonal- scale experiments AMIP configuranons except for slab ocean model (D=15m & τ=7days) with SST nudging and fixed sea ice monthly mean AMIP2 SST/SSI.
8 precipitation: SLAB vs. fixed SST
9 Time lastude secsons of daily precipitason anomalies averaged over E for Top: TRMM Middle: NICAM 7- km and BoKom: IFS 10- km 103- day- long hindcasts for the period 22 May 30 Aug 2006 Kinter et al. (2013,BAMS)
10 NICAM) Satoh et al ERA 8- year mean July U850 JJAS 20- yr Climatology JRA25 IFS NICAM NICAM NICAM - JRA25 shade: zonal wind@850hpa green/gray contours: +/- precipitation bias
11 variation WNPMI JJAS 20- yr Climatology Interannual varianon Normalized by standard devianon WNPMI Wang et al OLR
12 Miyakawa, T., et al. (2014) Madden Julian OscillaNon predicnon skill of a new- generanon global model. Nature Commun., 5, doi: /ncomms4769.
13
14 BSISO & TC Typhoon Kujira BSISO: Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillaion 00UTC, 22 June 2015, MTSAT
15 Boreal Summer ISO WNP:inacNve WNP:acNve Kikuchi et al. (2011 Clim.Dyn.)
16 Kajikawa, Y., Yamaura, T., Tomita, H., Satoh, M. (2015) Impact of tropical disturbance on the Indian summer monsoon onset simulated by a global cloud-systemresolving model. SOLA, 11, 80-84, doi: /sola Blue: May mean NICAM JMA
17 Mean of Exp. with IC at May 15-19
18
19 Nakano, M., Sawada, M., Nasuno, T., Satoh, M. (2015) Intraseasonal variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific simulated by a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi: /2014gl Typhoon season in N 20N 10N EQ 4TCs 8TCs 10S M J J A S O BSISO phase in August: 5=>2 Nakazawa (2006 SOLA)
20 Experimental design 2004 & Aug. 1 Sep. 2 Aug. 30 days 31 Aug.
21 IniNal date 6 out of 8 TCs are well simulated. 4 TCs are reproduced 2 weeks prior to genesis. Averaged # of FA is 3.5. Hit Early Late Missed 2 weeks 2 weeks 2 weeks 2 weeks
22 Contour: Observed OLR = 200W/m 2 Shade: OLR Overall, northward migranon in August and decay in September are well simulated.
23 What does control predictability of TC genesis? 7 runs =What is different between them? IniNal date 7 runs 7 runs Hit Early Late Missed
24 OBS 10- day mean U850 and OLR Contour: OLR < 200W/m2 Color: U850 IniNalized 3 weeks before Songda s genesis ConvecNon and monsoon trough retreat in late August.
25 OBS 10- day mean U850 and OLR Contour: OLR < 200W/m2 Color: U850 IniNalized 2 weeks before Songda s genesis ConvecNon and monsoon trough are well simulated.
26 BSISO forecast skill NICAM ECMWF METOFFICE JMA Comparable with world- leading operanonal models
27 Composite of U850 (initial phase=4 to valid phase=7) 3 # of cases
28 Summary NICAM 14km runs well capture ISO signals Indian summer monsoon onset is well represented Monsoon bias is drasncally reduced, mainly by use of the slab ocean model Westerly shear extension associated with BSISO is important for tropical cyclogenesis. Sub- seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis is prospecnve (> 2 weeks), depending on phases of BSISO.
Impact of Tropical Disturbance on the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Simulated by a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model
80 SOLA, 2015, Vol. 11, 80 84, doi:10.2151/sola.2015-020 Impact of Tropical Disturbance on the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset Simulated by a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model Yoshiyuki Kajikawa 1, Tsuyoshi
Structure of Tropical Convective Systems in Aqua-Planet Experiments: Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Versus the Earth-Like Experiment
220 SOLA, 2016, Vol. 12, 220224, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-044 Structure of Tropical Convective Systems in Aqua-Planet Experiments: Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Versus the Earth-Like Experiment Masaki
2006/12/29. MISMO workshop Yokohama, 25 November, 2008
Global cloud-resolving simulations of MJO events in November 2006 - January 2007 ---multiscale structure --- 2006/12/29 MTSAT-1R NICAM Tomoe NASUNO, Masaki SATOH, Hiroaki MIURA, NICAM development group
Contributions of Global cloud-resolving model simulations to YOTC
Contributions of Global cloud-resolving model simulations to YOTC M. Satoh Center for Climate System Research, Univ. of Tokyo Research Institute for Global Change(formery FRCGC), JAMSTEC Courtesy of H.
A workshop on the theme of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity March in Schloss Ringberg, Germany
Clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity simulated by NICAM Global nonhydrostatic model simulations with single and double momentum cloud microphysics schemes and evaluation using satellite simulators
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO Tim Li Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii DYNAMO workshop, April 13-14, Boulder, Colorado 1. MJO Initiation issue: Role of air- sea
Future activities of HPC in meteorology using K-computer
The 14th ECMWF Workshop on High Performance Computing in Meteorology Future activities of HPC in meteorology using K-computer Hirofumi Tomita Research Institute for Global Change / JAMSTEC Advanced Institute
Projection of changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to greenhouse warming: Global cloud system resolving approach
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37,, doi:10.1029/2010gl042518, 2010 Projection of changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to greenhouse warming: Global
Development of a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model for Climate System Studies
Chapter 1 Earth Science Development of a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model for Climate System Studies Project Representative Tatsushi Tokioka Frontier Research Center
Development of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model (GCM) at the Frontier Research Center for Global Change
Chapter 1 Atmospheric and Oceanic Simulation Development of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model (GCM) at the Frontier Research Center for Global Change Project Representative Tatsushi
Vertical heating rate profiles associated with MJO in JRA-25
Vertical heating rate profiles associated with MJO in JRA-25 Tatsuya Motoyama 1 1 Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency t-motoyama@met.kishou.go.jp INTRODUCTION To study vertical heating
MJO modeling and Prediction
MJO modeling and Prediction In-Sik Kang Seoul National University, Korea Madden & Julian Oscillation (MJO) index Composite: OLR & U850 RMM index based on Leading PCs of Combined EOF (OLR, U850, U200) P-1
Examination of Tropical Cyclogenesis using the High Temporal and Spatial Resolution JRA-25 Dataset
Examination of Tropical Cyclogenesis using the High Temporal and Spatial Resolution JRA-25 Dataset Masato Sugi Forecast Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Correspondence: msugi@mri-jma.go.jp
4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction
4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,
Evaluation and Improvement of Clouds Simulated by the Global Nonhydrostatic Model NICAM and Satellite Data
Evaluation and Improvement of Clouds Simulated by the Global Nonhydrostatic Model NICAM and Satellite Data NICAM: dx=3.5 km simulations EarthCARE satellite mission (2016?) Joint Simulator for Satellite
7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon 7 December 2016 Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface climate and atmospheric/oceanographic
Development of a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model for Climate System Studies
Chapter Earth Science Development of a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land General Circulation Model for Climate System Studies Project Representative Akira Noda Frontier Research Center for
Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter
Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Shingo Yamada Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 2006/11/02 7 th Joint Meeting on EAWM Contents 1. Verification of the Seasonal
Observation and Simulation of the Genesis of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) in the Tropical Western Pacific
Observation and Simulation of the Genesis of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) in the Tropical Western Pacific Hiroyuki Yamada 1, Wataru Yanase 2, Masaki Sato 1,2, Kunio Yoneyama 1, and Ryuichi Shirooka 1 (1: JAMSTEC,
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
Role of the Vertical Structure of a Simulated Tropical Cyclone in Its Motion: A Case Study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008)
SOLA, 2016, Vol. 12, 203 208, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-041 203 Role of the Vertical Structure of a Simulated Tropical Cyclone in Its Motion: A Case Study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) Hiroyuki Yamada 1, Tomoe
Anticorrelated intensity change of the quasi-biweekly and day oscillations over the South China Sea
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L16702, doi:10.1029/2008gl034449, 2008 Anticorrelated intensity change of the quasi-biweekly and 30 50-day oscillations over the South
Pacific Storm Track at Different Horizontal Resolutions Snap-shot of Column Liquid Water Content
Color Plates Pacific Storm Track at Different Horizontal Resolutions Snap-shot of Column Liquid Water Content Fig. 2.8 A snapshot of the cyclone frontal-system by a nonhydrostatic model run with two very
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring 1 Typical flow of making one month forecast Textbook P.66 Observed data Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions Analysis Numerical model Ensemble forecast
Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines
International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies at Tsukuba, October 4, 2017 Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines Jun Matsumoto
1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011
Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region
Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Acknowledgements: Gilbert Brunet, Jacques Derome ECMWF Seminar 2010 September
Tropical cyclone simulations and predictions with GFDL s prototype global cloud resolving model
Tropical cyclone simulations and predictions with GFDL s prototype global cloud resolving model S.-J. Lin and GFDL model development teams NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Workshop on High-Resolution
A GCM with cloud microphysics and its MJO simulation
DOI 10.1186/s40562-016-0048-1 RESEARCH LETTER A GCM with cloud microphysics and its MJO simulation In Sik Kang 1,2*, Min Seop Ahn 1 and Young Min Yang 3 Open Access Abstract The present study examines
Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU
Monsoon Activities in China Tianjun ZHOU Email: zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn CLIVAR AAMP10, Busan,, Korea 18-19 19 June 2010 Outline Variability of EASM -- Interdecadal variability -- Interannual variability
Characteristics of 2014 summer climate over South Korea
2 nd East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum Characteristics of 2014 summer climate over South Korea October 30, 2014 So-Young Yim, E-hyung Park, and Hyun-Sook Jung Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological
The Interdecadal Variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High as Measured by 500 hpa Eddy Geopotential Height
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2015, VOL. 8, NO. 6, 371 375 The Interdecadal Variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High as Measured by 500 hpa Eddy Geopotential Height HUANG Yan-Yan and
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA AKIO KITOH, MASAHIRO HOSAKA, YUKIMASA ADACHI, KENJI KAMIGUCHI Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan It is anticipated
Climate System Monitoring
TCC Training Seminar on Climate Analysis Information 26 30 November 2012 Tokyo, Japan Climate System Monitoring Shotaro TANAKA Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Outline 1. Introduction
Primary Factors Contributing to Japan's Extremely Hot Summer of 2010
temperature anomalies by its standard deviation for JJA 2010 Primary Factors Contributing to Japan's Extremely Hot Summer of 2010 Nobuyuki Kayaba Climate Prediction Division,Japan Meteorological Agancy
Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii
Background of Symposium/Workshop Yuhei Takaya Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
Background of Symposium/Workshop Yuhei Takaya ytakaya@met.kishou.go.jp Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Long-Range Forecast, Tokyo Japan, 8-10 December Outline Background of Dynamical
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast on 13 November 2018 10:30 11:00 1 Typical flow of making one-month forecast Observed
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Medium-Range (0-day) Partial coupling Extended + Monthly Fully coupled Seasonal Forecasts Fully coupled Atmospheric model Atmospheric model Wave model Wave
Impact of Resolution on Extended-Range Multi-Scale Simulations
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Impact of Resolution on Extended-Range Multi-Scale Simulations Carolyn A. Reynolds Naval Research Laboratory Monterey,
Challenges of convection-permitting regional climate simulations for future climate projection in Japan
Challenges of convection-permitting regional climate simulations for future climate projection in Japan - Program for Risk Information on Climate Change, SOUSEI program - NCAR Sep. 7, 2016 Hiroaki Kawase
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,
Data assimilation, Real-time forecasting and high-resolution
Data assimilation, Real-time forecasting and high-resolution simulation during the 2011 CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign Tim Li and X. Fu (UH), Kunio Yoneyama and Tomoe Nasuno (JAMSTEC) Real time observational
BCC climate prediction model system: developments and applications
EASCOF-5 BCC climate prediction model system: developments and applications Li Qiaoping Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Contributed by: Wu Tongwen, Liu Xiangwen,
Origin of the Summertime Synoptic-Scale Wave Train in the Western North Pacific*
MARCH 2006 L I 1093 Origin of the Summertime Synoptic-Scale Wave Train in the Western North Pacific* TIM LI International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at
Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics
Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics Tieh-Yong KOH 1 and Ricardo M. FONSECA 2 1 Singapore University of Social Sciences, Singapore 2
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center
Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Africa Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center NOAA Forecast Con/nuum e.g. Disaster management planning and response e.g. Crop Selec6on, Water management
NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Diurnal Convection Peaks over the Eastern Indian Ocean o Sumatra during Di erent MJO Phases
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 89A, pp. 317--330, 2011. 317 DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2011-A22 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Diurnal Convection Peaks over the Eastern Indian Ocean o Sumatra during
Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center
International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction 12 th February 2014 Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center Hae Jeong Kim 1, Matthew C. Wheeler 2, June
Variability of West African Weather Systems. Chris Thorncroft Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany
Variability of West African Weather Systems Chris Thorncroft Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany Variability of West African Weather Systems (1) Convectively Coupled
A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA
4th THORPEX workshop 31 Oct. 2012, Kunming, China A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA Masaomi NAKAMURA Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute / JMA Contents
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, VOL. 3, NO. 1, 25 30 The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO HU Kai-Ming and HUANG Gang State Key
The Madden Julian Oscillation in the ECMWF monthly forecasting system
The Madden Julian Oscillation in the ECMWF monthly forecasting system Frédéric Vitart ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom F.Vitart@ecmwf.int ABSTRACT A monthly forecasting system has
Winter Forecast for GPC Tokyo. Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Winter Forecast for 2013 2014 GPC Tokyo Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) NEACOF 5, October 29 November 1, 2013 1 Outline 1. Numerical prediction 2. Interannual
The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2012, VOL. 5, NO. 3, 219 224 The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times LU Ri-Yu 1, LI Chao-Fan 1,
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
Differences of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in an Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Model and an Atmosphere-Only Model*
1263 Differences of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in an Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Model and an Atmosphere-Only Model* XIOUHUA FU IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu,
- Introduction - Technical Presentation 49 th Session of the Typhoon Committee. Yokohama, Japan 21 February Munehiko Yamaguchi
- Introduction - The Latest Model Simulation and Observational Studies related to Tropical Cyclone in Japan Technical Presentation 49 th Session of the Typhoon Committee Yokohama, Japan 21 February 2017
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for
京都大学防災研究所年報第 49 号 B 平成 18 年 4 月. Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B,
京都大学防災研究所年報第 49 号 B 平成 18 年 4 月 Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B, 2006 170 1978 2003 26 30-60 10-20 :. 10 60 (Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976; Hartmann and Michelsen, 1989 )Hartmann
Introduction to tropical meteorology and deep convection
Introduction to tropical meteorology and deep convection TMD Lecture 1 Roger K. Smith University of Munich A satpix tour of the tropics The zonal mean circulation (Hadley circulation), Inter- Tropical
NICAM Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral
NICAM Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model Masaki Satoh (AORI, the Univ. of Tokyo/RIGC, JAMSTEC) 13 Sep 2008 (7km-NICAM by H.L.Tanaka) 1 th Workshop on Dynamical Cores for Climate Models December
Seasonal Forecast (One-month Forecast)
Seasonal Forecast (One-month Forecast) Hiroshi Ohno Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Outline Introduction Predictability and Ensemble Prediction
The pilot real-time sub-seasonal MME prediction in WMO LC-LRFMME
The pilot real-time sub-seasonal MME prediction in WMO LC-LRFMME Suhee Park, Jin Ho Yoo, Soonjo Yoon and Miah Kim WMO LC-LRFMME May 2016 1. Introduction WMO and many operational centers realized the necessity
Understanding Predictability and Model Errors Through Light, Portable Pseudo-Assimilation and Experimental Prediction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Understanding Predictability and Model Errors Through Light, Portable Pseudo-Assimilation and Experimental Prediction Techniques
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific Wei Mei 1 Shang-Ping Xie 1, Ming Zhao 2 & Yuqing Wang 3 Climate Variability and Change and Paleoclimate Working
Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii
478 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 0 Horizontal and Vertical Structures of the Northward-Propagating Intraseasonal Oscillation in the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by an Intermediate Model*
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Augustin Vintzileos (1)(3), Tim Marchok (2), Hua-Lu Pan (3) and Stephen J. Lord (1) SAIC (2) GFDL (3) EMC/NCEP/NOAA During
Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
Update of the JMA s One-month Ensemble Prediction System
Update of the JMA s One-month Ensemble Prediction System Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division Atsushi Minami, Masayuki Hirai, Akihiko Shimpo, Yuhei Takaya, Kengo Miyaoka, Hitoshi Sato,
NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Skillful Time Scale of Climate Models
Journal January of 2016 the Meteorological Society of Japan, I. TAKAYABU Vol. 94A, pp. and 191 197, K. HIBINO 2016 191 DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2015-038 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Skillful Time Scale of Climate
S2S Researches at IPRC/SOEST University of Hawaii
S2S Researches at IPRC/SOEST University of Hawaii Joshua Xiouhua Fu, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, and Baoqiang Xiang 1 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014 Outline S2S Research Highlights at IPRC/SOEST/UH. Development
The Australian Summer Monsoon
The Australian Summer Monsoon Aurel Moise, Josephine Brown, Huqiang Zhang, Matt Wheeler and Rob Colman Australian Bureau of Meteorology Presentation to WMO IWM-IV, Singapore, November 2017 Outline Australian
Contents of this file
Geophysical Research Letters Supporting Information for Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations Kohei Yoshida 1, Masato Sugi 1, Ryo Mizuta 1, Hiroyuki
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts Laura.Ferranti@ecmwf.int ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Slide 1 TC January 2014 Slide 1 The operational forecasting system l High resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level,
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Factors Controlling Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific*
MARCH 2011 G A O A N D L I 885 Factors Controlling Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific* JIANYUN GAO Fujian Climate Center, CMA, Fuzhou, Fujian, China TIM LI IPRC and Department
Where does precipitation water come from?
Chapter II Climate and Meteorology Where does precipitation water come from? Introduction The source of water vapor existing over Mongolia has been considered to consist of evapotranspiration at several
The Influence of Intraseasonal Variations on Medium- to Extended-Range Weather Forecasts over South America
486 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW The Influence of Intraseasonal Variations on Medium- to Extended-Range Weather Forecasts over South America CHARLES JONES Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS),
Fidelity and Predictability of Models for Weather and Climate Prediction
15 August 2013, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL Fidelity and Predictability of Models for Weather and Climate Prediction Jagadish Shukla Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences (AOES),
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales Dan C. Collins NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Acknowledgements: Stephen Baxter and Augustin Vintzileos (CPC and UMD) 1 Outline I. Operational
Abstract: INTRODUCTION MODEL AND EXPERIMENT
Hydrological Research Letters 3, 49 53 (2009) Published online in J-STAGE (www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/hrl). DOI: 10.3178/HRL.3.49 Projection of changes in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution
Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune
Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Other Contributors: Soma Sen Roy, O. P. Sreejith, Kailas, Madhuri, Pallavi, Mahendra and Jasmine
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño
Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013
Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products 11-15 November 2013 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Regression method Single/Multi regression model Selection
ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary
The Roles Of Air-Sea Coupling and Atmospheric Weather Noise in Tropical Low Frequency Variability
The Roles Of Air-Sea Coupling and Atmospheric Weather Noise in Tropical Low Frequency Variability Hua Chen, 1,2,3 Edwin K. Schneider, 1,2 Ioana Colfescu 1 1 George Mason University 2 COLA 3 Nanjing Institute
KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
JAMSTEC Model Intercomparision Project (JMIP)
1 JAMSTEC Model Intercomparision Project (JMIP) 2 Chihiro Kodama 1*, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida 2,1, Shingo Watanabe 1, Takeshi Doi 1, 3 Hiroki Kashimura 3 and Tomoe Nasuno 1 4 5 1: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Highs in a Warming Climate Wenhong Li, Laifang Li, Mingfang Ting, and Yimin Liu 1. Data and Methods The data used in this study consists of the atmospheric
Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Numbers Using a Regional Climate Model
Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Numbers Using a Regional Climate Model Johnny Chan and Judy Huang* Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University
Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii
MJO and Maritime Continent Interactions: Evaluating State of the Art, Characterizing Shortcomings, Eric Maloney Colorado State University
S2S MJOTF Joint Research Project White Paper MJO and Maritime Continent Interactions: Evaluating State of the Art, Characterizing Shortcomings, Eric Maloney Colorado State University MJO Task Force : Background
Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP
Dynamical Statistical Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Hurricane Activity at NCEP Hui Wang, Arun Kumar, Jae Kyung E. Schemm, and Lindsey Long NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Fifth Session of North
JMA s Ensemble Prediction System for One-month and Seasonal Predictions
JMA s Ensemble Prediction System for One-month and Seasonal Predictions Akihiko Shimpo Japan Meteorological Agency Seasonal Prediction Modeling Team: H. Kamahori, R. Kumabe, I. Ishikawa, T. Tokuhiro, S.
TCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast.
TCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast Takashi Yamada Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Contents
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index