S2S Researches at IPRC/SOEST University of Hawaii
|
|
|
- Charleen Cross
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 S2S Researches at IPRC/SOEST University of Hawaii Joshua Xiouhua Fu, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, and Baoqiang Xiang 1 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
2 Outline S2S Research Highlights at IPRC/SOEST/UH. Development of S2S Forecasting Systems. Experimental S2S Forecasting. Summary and Future Study. 2 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
3 Impacts of ENSO, BSISO, and MJO 3 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
4 ENSO=>EASM PNA Wang, Wu and Fu, S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
5 H L H L H H L L H L L H H L H L H Moon et al. 2013; Ding and Wang S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
6 MJO and the Record-Breaking East Coast Snowstorms in 2009/2010 L H L H L H H L Bar: Eastern US snow Line: Central Pacific MJO Moon et al S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
7 S2S Forecasting Systems 7 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
8 UH Hybrid Coupled GCM (UH) Atmospheric component: ECHAM-4 T30 (vers_1) &T106 (vers_2) L19 AGCM (Roeckner et al. 1996) Ocean component: Wang-Li-Fu 2-1/2-layer upper ocean model (0.5 o x0.5 o ) (Fu and Wang 2001) Wang, Li, and Chang (1995): upper-ocean thermodynamics (2-1/2 ocean model) McCreary and Yu (1992): upper-ocean dynamics (2-1/2 ocean model) Jin (1997) : mean and ENSO (intermediate fully coupled model) Zebiak and Cane (1987): ENSO (intermediate anomaly coupled model) Fully coupling without heat flux correction Coupling region: Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (30 o S-30 o N) Coupling interval: once per day 8 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
9 Madden-Julian Oscillation 9 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
10 Climatology of Tropical Cyclones 10 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
11 Two Versions of New Coupled Model POEM1 (T42) & POEM2 (T159) Structure of the new POEM2 POEM (POP/CICE-OASIS-ECHAM) model ECHAM5.3 (T159) Atmosphere and Land OASIS3-MCT Coupler POP2.01 (1 o lon x 0.5 o lat) Ocean CICE4.1 (1 o lon x 0.5 o lat) Sea Ice 11 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
12 ENSO in POEM1 and POEM2 12 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
13 Sea Ice Climatology Annual Mean Sea Ice Concentration Observation Hadley Center POEM2 13 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
14 A Multi-Model Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast System NCEP CFS Forecast NCEP/CPC Statistical Forecast UH-HCM Forecast Other (e.g., NMME, CLIPAS, NICAM) Forecasts Formula are developed from long-term reforecasts with three models MME Forecast over Asian-Pacific Region Downscaling MME Forecast to Specific Regions or Individual Islands 14 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
15 Experimental S2S Forecasting 15 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
16 UH Multi-Model Seasonal Forecast Skill (Prec.) 16 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
17 Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble Forecasting Skill of Southeast Asian Monsoon ISO in 2008 Rainfall U850 Individual Statistical or Dynamical Models Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble Fu et al. (2013) 17 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
18 Extended-range Forecasting of TC Nargis (2008) Initial Date: April 10, 2008 Fu and Hsu (2011) 18 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
19 MJO Skills in Three GCMs during DYNAMO/CINDY (Wheeler-Hendon Index) (Sep Mar 2012) GFS: 14 days Fu et al. (2013) CFSv2&UH: 25/25 days CFSv2&UH MME: 37 days 19 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
20 Numerical Experiments with Different SST Settings Names of Experiments SST Settings CPL Fcst_SST (or fsst) Atmosphere-ocean coupled forecasts. Atmosphere-only forecasts driven by daily SST derived from the cpl forecasts. Pers_SST (or psst) Atmosphere-only forecasts driven by persistent SST. TMI_SST (or osst) Atmosphere-only forecasts driven by observed daily TMI SST. 20 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
21 SST-Feedback Significantly Extends MJO Forecast Skill Potential Persistent SST Forecasted Daily SST CPL Observed Daily SST 21 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
22 Summary and Future Study Combination of Multiple Dynamical and Statistical Model Forecasts is a Practical Approach to Improve S2S Forecasting Skill. Using Daily SST Forecasted from Good Coupled Models as Boundary Conditions is Expected to Improve the S2S Skill of High-resolution AGCMs (e.g., TIGGE Models). Researches are Needed to Better Understand the Sources of S2S Predictability of High-impact Weather and Climate (or Extreme) Events, Such as Tropical Cyclones, Heat Waves, and Flooding et al. Further Develop and Improve Dynamical and Statistical S2S Models. Explore the Ways to Advance S2S Forecast Skills (e.g., MME) and to Efficiently Utilize Available S2S Products for Societal Applications. 22 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
23 Thank You Very Much! 23 S2S Workshop, DC, Feb.10-13, 2014
24 24
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO Tim Li Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii DYNAMO workshop, April 13-14, Boulder, Colorado 1. MJO Initiation issue: Role of air- sea
APCC/CliPAS. model ensemble seasonal prediction. Kang Seoul National University
APCC/CliPAS CliPAS multi-model model ensemble seasonal prediction In-Sik Kang Seoul National University APEC Climate Center - APCC APCC Multi-Model Ensemble System APCC Multi-Model Prediction APEC Climate
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast
Introduction of climate monitoring and analysis products for one-month forecast TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast on 13 November 2018 10:30 11:00 1 Typical flow of making one-month forecast Observed
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring 1 Typical flow of making one month forecast Textbook P.66 Observed data Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions Analysis Numerical model Ensemble forecast
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
Forecasting the MJO with the CFS: Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO. Jon Gottschalck. Augustin Vintzileos
Forecasting the MJO with the CFS: Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO Augustin Vintzileos CPC/NCEP CICS/ESSIC, University of Maryland College Park Jon Gottschalck CPC/NCEP Problem statement: In
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Augustin Vintzileos (1)(3), Tim Marchok (2), Hua-Lu Pan (3) and Stephen J. Lord (1) SAIC (2) GFDL (3) EMC/NCEP/NOAA During
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. 1 Outline 30 years ago: the start of ensemble, extended-range predictions
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center
Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Africa Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center NOAA Forecast Con/nuum e.g. Disaster management planning and response e.g. Crop Selec6on, Water management
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Acknowledgements: Gilbert Brunet, Jacques Derome ECMWF Seminar 2010 September
Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii
Potential Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) in the ISVHE multi-model framework
UCLA Potential Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) in the ISVHE multi-model framework Neena Joseph Mani 1,2 1 Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Sci. & Engineering / UCLA, USA
Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP
Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific Wei Mei 1 Shang-Ping Xie 1, Ming Zhao 2 & Yuqing Wang 3 Climate Variability and Change and Paleoclimate Working
Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center
International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction 12 th February 2014 Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center Hae Jeong Kim 1, Matthew C. Wheeler 2, June
Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)
Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE) June-Yi Lee 1, Bin Wang 1, D. Waliser 2, H. Hendon 3, I.-S. Kang 4, K. Sperber 5 and ISVHE Team members 1 International Pacific Research Center, University
March Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions
1934-2 Fourth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models: Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Extended-Range Prediction 3-14 March 2008 Regional
Differences of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in an Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Model and an Atmosphere-Only Model*
1263 Differences of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in an Atmosphere Ocean Coupled Model and an Atmosphere-Only Model* XIOUHUA FU IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu,
Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society
Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America
Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Christopher L. Castro,, Stephen Bieda III, and Francina Dominguez University of Arizona Regional Climate Forum for Northwest
Charles Jones ICESS University of California, Santa Barbara CA Outline
The Influence of Tropical Variations on Wintertime Precipitation in California: Pineapple express, Extreme rainfall Events and Long-range Statistical Forecasts Charles Jones ICESS University of California,
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts
The ECMWF Extended range forecasts Laura.Ferranti@ecmwf.int ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Slide 1 TC January 2014 Slide 1 The operational forecasting system l High resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km 91-level,
Climate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier
The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier for the MJO Augustin Vintzileos EMC/NCEP SAIC Points to take back home. Forecast of the MJO is at, average, skillful for lead times of up to circa 2 weeks.
MC-KPP: Efficient, flexible and accurate air-sea coupling
MC-KPP: Efficient, flexible and accurate air-sea coupling Nick Klingaman NCAS-Climate, University of Reading Shortwave Longwave Latent Sensible Wind Prescribe SSTs and sea ice Pro: Computationally inexpensive,
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt Improving Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Drought Preparedness May 27-29, 2015 San Diego,
IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting)
Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting) Phil Klotzbach 7 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones November 18, 2010 Working Group: Maritza Ballester
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Using ECMWF forecasts, 4-6 June 2014 1 Outline Recent progress and plans
Background of Symposium/Workshop Yuhei Takaya Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
Background of Symposium/Workshop Yuhei Takaya ytakaya@met.kishou.go.jp Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Long-Range Forecast, Tokyo Japan, 8-10 December Outline Background of Dynamical
Intraseasonal Forecasting of Asian Summer Monsoon in Four. Operational and Research Models
1 2 3 Intraseasonal Forecasting of Asian Summer Monsoon in Four Operational and Research Models 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Xiouhua Fu *, June-Yi Lee, and Bin Wang IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu,
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction
Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction Draft Plan 8 January 2009 1. Introduction The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, Madden-Julian 1971, 1994) interacts with, and influences, a wide range of
Climate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
Yuqing Wang. International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822
A Regional Atmospheric Inter-Model Evaluation Project (RAIMEP) with the Focus on Sub-daily Variation of Clouds and Precipitation Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology
KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
MJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF)
MJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Slide 1 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 1 INDEX The S2S project and S2S Database MJO prediction in S2S models MJO teleconnections
The Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA
The 2011-2012 Texas drought Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA 1 outline Evolution of the 2011-2012 Texas drought Climatology and historical perspective The 2011 drought Onset Feedback
INDIAN OCEAN STATE February 28, 2018 MJO INDEX
Digana Village,Sri Lanka/ Male,Maldives/ New York, USA Phone: (+94) 81-2376746 (SL), (+960) 77880(MV) Web: http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives Blog: http://fectmv.blogspot.com E-mail: fectmv@gmail.com
The Boreal-Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in a Hybrid Coupled Atmosphere Ocean Model*
2628 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 The Boreal-Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations Simulated in a Hybrid Coupled Atmosphere Ocean Model* XIOUHUA FU ANDBIN WANG International Pacific Research Center, School
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts
ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Medium-Range (0-day) Partial coupling Extended + Monthly Fully coupled Seasonal Forecasts Fully coupled Atmospheric model Atmospheric model Wave model Wave
CLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL
CLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL JOSÉ A. MARENGO, IRACEMA F.A.CAVALCANTI, GILVAN SAMPAIO,
Data assimilation, Real-time forecasting and high-resolution
Data assimilation, Real-time forecasting and high-resolution simulation during the 2011 CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign Tim Li and X. Fu (UH), Kunio Yoneyama and Tomoe Nasuno (JAMSTEC) Real time observational
On the Appropriateness of Spectral Nudging in Regional Climate Models
On the Appropriateness of Spectral Nudging in Regional Climate Models Christopher L. Castro Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona, USA Dynamically Downscaled IPCC model
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
Dynamical Seasonal Monsoon Forecasting at IITM
Dynamical Seasonal Monsoon Forecasting at IITM H. S. Chaudhari, S. K. Saha, A. Hazra, S.Pokhrel, S. A. Rao, A. K. Sahai, R. Krishnan & Seasonal Prediction and Extended Range Prediction Group Indian Institute
Predicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier
Predicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier Suryachandra A. Rao Associate Mission Director, Monsoon Mission Project Director, High Performance Computing Indian Institute of Tropical
Impact of Atmosphere Ocean Coupling on the Predictability of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations*
JANUARY 2007 F U E T A L. 157 Impact of Atmosphere Ocean Coupling on the Predictability of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations* XIOUHUA FU IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii BIN
The Madden Julian Oscillation in the ECMWF monthly forecasting system
The Madden Julian Oscillation in the ECMWF monthly forecasting system Frédéric Vitart ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom F.Vitart@ecmwf.int ABSTRACT A monthly forecasting system has
California DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop
California DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROGER V. PIERCE NOAA & WESTERN STATES FEDERAL AGENCY SUPPORT TEAM (WESTFAST) WestFAST Environmental Protection
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
INDIAN OCEAN STATE February 14, 2018 MJO INDEX
Digana Village,Sri Lanka/ Male,Maldives/ New York, USA Phone: (+94) 81-2376746 (SL), (+960) 77880(MV) Web: http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives Blog: http://fectmv.blogspot.com E-mail: fectmv@gmail.com
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
South African Weather Service SWIOCOF-5 Pre-Forum. Seasonal Forecast, Water Resources and Expected Outcomes
South African Weather Service SWIOCOF-5 Pre-Forum Seasonal Forecast, Water Resources and Expected Outcomes Marc de Vos, September 2016 South Africa: Context BCRE, 2016, adapted from Boebel et al., 2003
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather
Relative importance of the tropics, internal variability, and Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate and weather Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center College Park, Maryland, USA Workshop on Arctic
Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño Prediction
1 Supplementary Material Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño Prediction N. S. Keenlyside 1, Hui Ding 2, and M. Latif 2,3 1 Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January
Sea Surface Temperature Feedback Extends the Predictability of. Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (TISO)
Sea Surface Temperature Feedback Extends the Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (TISO) Xiouhua Fu *1, Bo Yang 1, Qing Bao 3, and Bin Wang 1,2 1 IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa,
TCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast.
TCC Training Seminar on 17 th Nov 2015 JMA s Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) and their Products for Climate Forecast Takashi Yamada Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 1 Contents
Effects Of Aerosols On Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall During El Niño
International Workshop on Atmospheric Composition and the Asian Summer Monsoon Bangkok 8th-10th June 2015 Effects Of On Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall During El Niño Suvarna Fadnavis, CHAITRI ROY, Ashok
Sensitivity of Dynamical Intraseasonal Prediction Skills to Different Initial Conditions*
2572 M O N T H L Y W E A T H E R R E V I E W VOLUME 139 Sensitivity of Dynamical Intraseasonal Prediction Skills to Different Initial Conditions* XIOUHUA FU IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa,
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center
The pilot real-time sub-seasonal MME prediction in WMO LC-LRFMME
The pilot real-time sub-seasonal MME prediction in WMO LC-LRFMME Suhee Park, Jin Ho Yoo, Soonjo Yoon and Miah Kim WMO LC-LRFMME May 2016 1. Introduction WMO and many operational centers realized the necessity
Assessing Land Surface Albedo Bias in Models of Tropical Climate
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Assessing Land Surface Albedo Bias in Models of Tropical Climate William R. Boos (PI) Yale University PO Box 208109 New
Numerical Seasonal Prediction: Approaches and Challenges
Numerical Seasonal Prediction: Approaches and Challenges Malaquías Peña Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgments: Huug van den Dool (CPC), Suru Saha (EMC), Yuejian Zhu (EMC), NMME,
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
Lecture 8: Natural Climate Variability
Lecture 8: Natural Climate Variability Extratropics: PNA, NAO, AM (aka. AO), SAM Tropics: MJO Coupled A-O Variability: ENSO Decadal Variability: PDO, AMO Unforced vs. Forced Variability We often distinguish
TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
Notes of the tutorial lectures for the Natural Sciences part by Alice Grimm Fourth lecture TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS Anomalous tropical SST Anomalous convection Anomalous latent heat source Anomalous
Variations of the Asian Monsoon and Simulations and Predictions by the NCEP CFS Song Yang
Variations of the Asian Monsoon and Simulations and Predictions by the NCEP CFS Song Yang NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA Song.Yang@noaa.gov Contents, Coauthors, and References
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
Fidelity and Predictability of Models for Weather and Climate Prediction
15 August 2013, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL Fidelity and Predictability of Models for Weather and Climate Prediction Jagadish Shukla Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences (AOES),
Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast Verification. Frédéric Vitart and Laura Ferranti. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast Verification Frédéric Vitart and Laura Ferranti European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 Verification Workshop Berlin 11 May 2017 INDEX 1. Context: S2S
BCC climate prediction model system: developments and applications
EASCOF-5 BCC climate prediction model system: developments and applications Li Qiaoping Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Contributed by: Wu Tongwen, Liu Xiangwen,
NOAA Climate Test Bed Jin Huang CTB Director
Research Topics AO NCEP Co-PI LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Earth System Modeling Tropical oscillations Model physics Etc. Research Climate Forecast Products MME CFS Improvements R2O O2R Operations
High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes
High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes ALLISON MICHAELIS, GARY LACKMANN, & WALT ROBINSON Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North
The Australian Summer Monsoon
The Australian Summer Monsoon Aurel Moise, Josephine Brown, Huqiang Zhang, Matt Wheeler and Rob Colman Australian Bureau of Meteorology Presentation to WMO IWM-IV, Singapore, November 2017 Outline Australian
CPC. Dan Collins and Emily Becker* NOAA Climate Predic9on Center with slides from Jon Go?schalck and Dave DeWi?
S2S @ CPC Dan Collins and Emily Becker* NOAA Climate Predic9on Center with slides from Jon Go?schalck and Dave DeWi? * and Innovim CPC odds and ends Official U.S. NWS S2S climate forecasts Two Branches:
Funding Realities at NOAA Climate Program. NOAA Climate Goal
Funding Realities at NOAA Climate Program Jin Huang NOAA Climate Program Office June 2, 2009 NOAA Climate Goal Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society s Ability to Plan and Respond
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2017 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions, characterised by afternoon showers and winds that are generally
Role of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the coupling of the Atmosphere and Ocean
Role of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the coupling of the Atmosphere and Ocean C.Perigaud (*),J.D.Neelin (UCLA) and J. McCreary (IPRC) (* CALTECH/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA91109; 818-354-8203;
Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure of the MJO in AIRS Observations: An Update and A Comparison to ECMWF Interim Reanalysis
Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure of the MJO in AIRS Observations: An Update and A Comparison to ECMWF Interim Reanalysis Baijun Tian 1 Duane Waliser 1, Eric Fetzer 1, and Yuk Yung 2 1.Jet Propulsion
Challenges in forecasting the MJO
Challenges in forecasting the MJO Augustin Vintzileos University of Maryland ESSIC/CICS-MD Jon Gottschalck NOAA/NCEP/CPC Outline Forecasting at the interface between weather and climate Multi-scale impacts
Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia (Updated version with Jun-Dec forecasts) 3.
Research Brief 2014/02 Experimental Forecasts of Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia (Updated version with Jun-Dec forecasts) Johnny C L Chan 1 and Judy W R Huang 2 1 Guy Carpenter
A Hybrid Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Approach on the. Simulation of Tropical Asian-Pacific Climate
A Hybrid Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Approach on the Simulation of Tropical Asian-Pacific Climate Xiouhua Fu a, Bin Wang a,b, Tim Li a,b, and Fei-fei Jin c a IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu,
ISO Hindcast Experiment ( ): A joint effort by APCC, AAMP, YOTC, AMY
Climate Prediction and its Association to Society ISO Hindcast Experiment (1989-2009): A joint effort by APCC, AAMP, YOTC, AMY Bin Wang, J.-Y. Lee, H. Hendon, D. Waliser, I.-S. Kang, J. Shukla, K. Sperber
1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011
Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region
The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2012, VOL. 5, NO. 3, 219 224 The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times LU Ri-Yu 1, LI Chao-Fan 1,
Global Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather
Global Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather By Julie Malmberg and Jessica Lowrey, Western Water Assessment Introduction This article provides a broad overview of various climate
Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 32, MAY 2015, 585 600 Major Modes of Short-Term Climate Variability in the Newly Developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM) CAO Jian 1,2,3, Bin WANG 1,2,3,4, Baoqiang
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)
Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through