Daniel B. Gilbert CHIEF METEOROLOGIST Weather Modification, Inc. Fargo, North Dakota USA. Terry W. Krauss PROJECT DIRECTOR

Transcription

1 Weather Modification Annual Meeting Desert Research Institute Reno, Nevada April 2014 Daniel B. Gilbert CHIEF METEOROLOGIST Weather Modification, Inc. Fargo, North Dakota USA Terry W. Krauss PROJECT DIRECTOR Alberta Hail Suppression Project Alberta Severe Weather Management Society Alberta CANADA Bruce A. Boe DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY Weather Modification, Inc. WMI Photograph by Andreas Bertoni

2 AHSP Project Area

3 AHSP Project Area

4 AHSP Project Area RADAR & OPS CENTER Approximately 11,100 mi 2 (28,800 km 2 ) SEEDING BUFFER ZONE PROTECTED AREA Cities and towns, not agriculture

5 Quick History Alberta Research Program Calgary storm The Alberta Severe Weather Management Society (ASWMS) Rebirth of AHSP in 1996

6 Hail frequency in Canada

7 Hail frequency in Canada

8 Population Density 2011 Census

9 Thousands of Dollars CAD 2,500,000 Canadian Natural Disasters (IBC, PCS) 2,000,000 Canada Disasters Alberta Storms 1998 Quebec Ice Storm 2011 Slave Lake Alberta Fire 1,500,000 1,000,000 7 Sep 1991 Calgary Hailstorm 1996 Quebec Flooding 2005 Ontario Wind/Rain storm 500, Year

10 Dollars CAD AFSC Crop Hail Award 4.50E E+08 Silage St Hail Crop 3.50E E E E E E E E Year

11 Concepts

12 Seeding Concepts Illustration from Canadian Geographic, based on WMO schematic, 1995

13 Targeting Potential hailers headed for or developing over urban areas are targeted. Simultaneous seeding at cloud top and at cloud base.

14 Propagation Vector TARGET AREA Cell Motion Storm Motion

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17 Five Aircraft: three Beechcraft C90 King Airs, two Cessna 340As. Two aircraft bases, one in the south, west of Calgary, the other up north just SW of Red Deer. Operations are all directed from central operations area about halfway between Calgary and Red Deer. Operations Design

18 Cessna 340A 310 HP per side 1,650 fpm climb rate 244 kts max speed 29.8 kft service ceiling BIPs, 102 EJs 2 wingtip generators Two Cessna 340A aircraft are employed in the AHSP. Hailstop 2 is based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 4 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

19 King Air C HP per side 2,137 fpm climb rate 230 knots max cruise 30 kft service ceiling 48 BIPs and 306 EJs Three King Air C90 aircraft are deployed in the AHSP. Hailstop 1 and 5 are based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 3 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

20 AHSP Infrastructure

21 The War Room Shown here, the Operations Room contains, TITAN, CIDD, AirLink, VHF radio, radar log, etc.

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26 The Key Personnel Alberta Severe Weather Manager Society Chairman: Todd Klapak Project Director: T.W. Krauss Weather Modification, Inc. On-Site Project Manager: J.M. Fischer Chief Met./Operations Director: D.B z. Gilbert Configuring TITAN parameters prior to the 2012 season. (Gilbert and Krauss, front to back.)

27 Recent Improvements Radar upgrade in 2011 Krauss became ASWMS Project Director 2011 Hailstop 5 added at Springbank in 2013 Insurance industry CEU tours and lectures New paint! 2013 Overhaul AZ/EL radar gear system 2014 Computer models and forecasting

28 Recent Improvements - Radar HiQ digital receiver with Doppler New transmitter (modulator and power supply) now Pulse Systems solid state Latest TITAN version Ubuntu Operating System

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33 CDC Strategy Description -3 No Seed -2 No Seed -1 No Seed 0 Recent Improvements - Forecasting Patrol flights and potential seeding +1 Seed +2 Seed +3 Seed +4 Seed +5 Seed Clear skies, fair weather cumulus, or stratus (with no rain). No deep convection. Towering cumulus, altocumulus, alto-stratus, or nimbostratus producing rain for several hours or weak echoes (e.g. virga). Scattered convective rain showers but no threat of hail. No reports of lightning. Thunderstorms (at least one) but no hail. VIL < 20 kg/m 2 within the project area or buffer zones on north, east, and south sides. Thunderstorms with pea or shot sized hail (0.5 to 1.2 cm diameter). 20 kg/m 2 < VIL < 30 kg/m 2 Thunderstorms with grape sized hail (1.3 to 2.0 cm diameter). 30 kg/m 2 < VIL < 70 kg/m 2 Thunderstorms with walnut sized hail (2.1 to 3.2 cm diameter). 70 kg/m 2 < VIL < 100 kg/m 2 Thunderstorms with golf ball sized hail (3.3 to 5.2 cm diameter). VIL > 100 kg/m 2 Thunderstorms with greater than golf ball sized hail (>5.2 cm diameter).

34 ForecastCDC Forecast vs. Observed CDC Daily Values Green - The forecast and observed CDCs were the same (perfect forecasts). Yellow - The observed CDC was greater than those forecast (underforecasts). Blue - The observed CDCs were less than those forecast (overforecasts). Observed Convective Day Category (CDC) Days Days Percent correct exact CDC category = 45/107 = 42% (38% in 2012) Percent correct within one CDC category = 85/107 = 79% (76% in 2012)

35 F O R E C A S T I N G POD, FAR, HSS, and CSI PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, FALSE ALARM RATIO, HEIDKE SKILL SCORE, AND CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX POD (Hailcast) POD (WMI) FAR (Hailcast) FAR (WMI) HSS (Hailcast) HSS (WMI) CSI (Hailcast) CSI (WMI)

36 Seeded Storm Days Aircraft Missions Total Flight Time (hours) Storms Seeded AgI Per Storm (kg) Ejectable Flares BIP Flares Seeding Solution (gallons) Season Activity Rank Season Operational Statistics Mean * * *The 1996 and 1997 seasons began on June 15, not June 1, which has been the norm ever since. Past four seasons have all ranked in top 10 most active Two busiest seasons were 2011 and 2012 AgI per storm highest in 2013 likely due to addition of fifth aircraft

37 Storm Tracks 2013

38 12 August 2012 The Bad & Ugly 12 August Seed Flights 12.8 hrs flight time 584 Ejectable flares 90 End-Burner flares 14.8 Gallons of Acetone 26.5 kg of seed agent

39 A closer look at 12 August 2012 South of Water Valley received a report of loonie sized hail. Hail was intermittent and heavy rain lasted about half an hour.

40 Received multiple reports of 30min of twoonie to golf ball sized hail North of Cochrane,

41 From Twitter #ABStorm hail bigger than a golf ball. Picture had golf ball with hail for reference.

42 Multiple reports of golf ball and hen egg sized hail in NW Calgary, AB. Event ongoing.

43 Received at least 25 reports of golf ball or bigger sized hail in NW, NE and SE Calgary, AB. Some reports of broken windows in homes and hail accumulations on the level. Smaller hail (~nickel) accumulating inches deep in various regions of the city. Event ongoing.

44 Received multiple reports of accumulating nickel to quarter sized hail in the NW area of Calgary, AB.

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46 Storm Track & Intensity Max VIL Track Reduced VIL After Seeding

47 Vil from maxz (kg/m2) Reduced VIL after seeding Scatterplot of Vil from maxz (kg/m2) vs time 200 Seeding Storm enters Calgary N S1 150 S2 S3 S4 100 Seeding Before Seeding time

48 Percent VIL of Seeded storm < Natural storm VIL Probability Plot of Vil from maxz (kg/m2) Lognormal - 90% CI Seeded Not Seeded SeedT B S Loc Scale N AD P < Vil from maxz (kg/m2)

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50 Brooks Med Hat Taber Lethbridge Foremost Cardston

51 Questions? Photograph by B. Waller,