Mesoscale NWP Model Intercomparison for The Maritime Continent : Preliminary Results and Future Plans. Tri Wahyu Hadi

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1 Mesoscale NWP Model Intercomparison for The Maritime Continent : Preliminary Results and Future Plans Tri Wahyu Hadi Atmospheric Science Research Group Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology Institut Teknologi Bandung INDONESIA

2 Acknowledgement Kyoto University Active Geosphere Investigation for The 21 st Century COE Program (KAGI 21) : Profs. T. Tsuda and S. Yoden Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM), ITB : Prof. Emmy Suparka MEXT Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology Research assistants and students : Nurjanna Joko T., I Dewa G. A. Junnaedhi, Amry Widyatmoko Other supporting agencies and research collaborators

3 Outline 1. Background and Motivation 2. Previous works and some results : Near real-time downscaling experiments A numerical study on strong convective system 3. Current works Mesoscale NWP model intercomparison Another study on strong convective system 4. Future Plans

Background and Motivation : Meteorological Disasters in The

Small twister in Yogyakarta (http://www.detik.

transient weather disturbance Flooding over wide area (Aceh 2006,

system Increasing frequency and intensity (?

4 Background and Motivation : Meteorological Disasters in The Maritime Continent of Indonesia Extreme Winds Extreme Rainfall Small twister in Yogyakarta ( and other web sites) Small scale but relatively strong transient weather disturbance Flooding over wide area (Aceh 2006, Central Java 2008) Torrential rain due to mesoscale convective system Increasing frequency and intensity (?) Effort to reduce these disaster necessitates a high resolution NWP system Severe floods in Jakarta, Jan/Feb 2002, Feb. 2007, Feb 2008

Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (1) Global domain Regional Model domains (figure by JMA) Data freely available on the internet, NCEP GFS global model output :

5 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (1) Global domain Regional Model domains (figure by JMA) Data freely available on the internet, NCEP GFS global model output : Horizontal resolution : 0.5 & 1 available Vertical resolution : 24 sigma levels Time resolution : 3 hr (downloaded at 6 hr interval) Prediction range : up to 384 hr (var. res.) Number of output parameters : 128 GRIB ver. 2 data format Targetted regional model characteristics Coarse grid res. : 30 km x 30km Finer grid res. : 10 km x 10 km Vertical resolution : 32 sigma levels Time resolution : 3 hr Two-way nesting between coarse and finer domain

6 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (2) Block A : Internet Resources Block B : Download Server Block C : PC Cluster NOAA Dept. Atm. Sci. University of Wyoming Dept. Inf. Science Kochi University Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) University of Wisconsin GFS Data Topgraphy and land-use data (fixed) Sonde Data MTSAT IR mages MTSAT/GOES latest images?? Postprocess Regional model Preprocessing (if data is adequate) Daily rainfall estimation -Monitoring -Prediction -Nowcasting -Forcast Verification Model run up to 48-hour lead time prediction Post processing of regional model output Block D : Web Server

Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (3) MM5 modeling system : Non-hydrostatic Primitive equations Developed by PSU/NCAR Free software Parallel

7 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (3) MM5 modeling system : Non-hydrostatic Primitive equations Developed by PSU/NCAR Free software Parallel version with MPI Model Setup -boundary-layer parameterization : MRF - cumulus parameterization : Grell (30 km) & KF (10 km) Downscaling without additional input except refinement of tropography

8 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (4) Download Time Data downloaded at 6 hr fcst interval MM5 Forcast Run MM5 Regional Prediction effective forecast lead time NCEP-GFS Forecast Run at 1200 UTC 2100 UTC The system has recently been upgraded resulting in reduced latency 0000 UTC 1200 UTC 1200 UTC PC Cluster assembled inhouse : 8 nodes AMD Athlon 64; 10 GB total memory 4 TB total data storage

9 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (5)

10 Previous Works and Some Results : Near Real-Time Downscaling Experiments (6) pure downscaling not much improvement in average error

11 Previous Works and Some Results : A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (1) Synoptic scale condition related to Jakarta flood event of Jan/Feb 2002 Southward migration of monsoon trough Appearance of cyclonic vortex over the Indian Oceansouth-west of Jakarta Data : NCEP global tropospheric analysis and GMS IR imageries (daily averaged TBB) T BB (K) Pwat (kg/m 2 ) Northern coastal plain of Java Island is prone to heavy rainfall during end of Jan.-beginning of Feb.

12 Previous Works and Some Results : A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (2) MM5 daily accumulated rainfall 3 km horizontal resolution NCEP-FNL initial and boundary condition Concentration of heavy rainfall over Jakarta area R c (mm)

13 Previous Works and Some Results : A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (3) From Edvin Aldrian (BPPT), Courtesy of BMG Characterized by North-South movement of convective system T BB (K)

14 Previous Works and Some Results : A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (4) Convective mechanism : 27 Jan 2002, 0200 LT 27 Jan 2002, 0300 LT cold pool advection 27 Jan 2002, 0400 LT 27 Jan 2002, 0500 LT Clw (g/kg)

15 Previous Works and Some Results : A Numerical Study of Strong Convective System (4) Convective mechanism : mixed layer blocking Clw (g/kg)

16 Previous Works and Some Results : Anticipated Problems in NWP Application Model accuracy High resolution simulation using NWP model has revealed a detailed structure of the convective system related to heavy rainfall events but downscaling alone does not seem to significantly improve average forecast error local data assimilation Model uncertainty Model uncertainty is an inherent problem of atmospheric predictability quantification by means of (multi-model) ensemble forecasting learning from other projects, model intercomparisons is an important step

17 Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (1) BRDP08, Courtesy of Dr. Hiromu Seko (MRI-JMA)

Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (2) Improvement of Computational Infrastructure The same look and number of nodes but now with : PC Cluster assembled inhouse : 8 nodes (1 master and 7

18 Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (2) Improvement of Computational Infrastructure The same look and number of nodes but now with : PC Cluster assembled inhouse : 8 nodes (1 master and 7 diskless nodes) Processor : single AMD Athlon (2.0 GHz) per node 10 GB total memory OS : SLES 9.0 Processor : Intel Core2 Quad Core (2.4 GHz) per node (32 cores in total) 32 GB of total memory OS : Open SuSE 10.2 (free version) MM5 and WRF test runs show that Hybrid SMP-MPI system reduce computational time by a factor of 4 to 6

quite results at 30 km resolution downscaling WRF

19 Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (3) MM5-WRF output samples Apart from accuracies, MM5 and WRF produced quite results at 30 km resolution downscaling WRF accumulated rainfall is more characterized wih small scale features

20 Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (4) WRF 3km simulation of heavy rainfall MM5 WRF R c (mm)

21 Current Works : Mesoscale NWP Intercomparison (5) WRF with cumulus parameterization WRF explicit Convection initiated at the top of PBL Gravity-wave induced convection (?) Sensitivity to cumulus parameterization at 3 km resolution

22 Current Works : Another Study of Strong Convective System (1) Floods in Karawang : Long duration of inundation (more than 10 days) Relatively large area Seems to be triggered by rainfall event of Feb. 6, 2008 Less effect of topography(?)

Current Works : Another Study of Strong Convective System (2) 2008/02/06 19:06 2008/02/06 20:06 2008/02/06 21:06 2008/02/06 22:06 2008/02/06 22:30 2008/02/06 23:06

23 Current Works : Another Study of Strong Convective System (2) 2008/02/06 19: /02/06 20: /02/06 21: /02/06 22: /02/06 22: /02/06 23: /02/06 23: /02/07 00: /02/07 00:30 C-band Radar Images Courtesy of HARIMAU Project (JAMSTEC-BPPT) Eastward moving convective cells along the coastal plain

Current Works : Another Study of Strong Convective System (3) 30-hour forecast of 3-hourly convective rainfall (07/02/2008 0100 LT) MM5 WRF New

24 Current Works : Another Study of Strong Convective System (3) 30-hour forecast of 3-hourly convective rainfall (07/02/ LT) MM5 WRF New resolution set-up km nesting (2 online and 1 off-line) Another type of blocking (land-breeze?) Too strong blocking in WRF WRF requires more parameter tuning

3-hourly precipitation, 27 km resolution JMA-NHM has been

25 Future Plans : Three-model Intercomparisons with JMA-NHM 06 February 2008, JMA-NHM test run 24 and 30 hour forecast of 3-hourly precipitation, 27 km resolution JMA-NHM has been installed and being tested to run donwscaling forecast with NCEP-GFS data

26 Future Plans : Coal Mines at Berau as Forecast Test Ground Partial funding by PT. Berau Coal Installation of 6-7 AWS Near real time data transfer to ITB Experiments on local data assimilation Decision support system in mining opration as a part of research activities

possibility to obtain near real-time GPS/Met data through collaboration with BAKOSURTANAL (National

27 Future Plans : C-Band Radar and GPS/Met over West Java Courtesy of Cecep Subarya (BAKOSURTANAL) Another high-resolution simulation and forecast test ground Relatively dense GPS network as part of INATEWS High possibility to obtain near real-time GPS/Met data through collaboration with BAKOSURTANAL (National Survery and Mapping Agency) More powerful if combined with C-band radar at Serpong through collaboration with JAMSTEC

28 Concluding Remarks Capacity building We have developed an entry-level computational infrastructure to conduct NWP research in SEA (The Maritime Continent of Indonesia). We are setting up an environment for model intercomparison Near-real time downscaling experiments MM5-WRF intercomparison shows that WRF requires more model parameter tuning in the tropics Process study Strong convections related to heavy rainfall involve complex mechanisms Future plan We are trying to setup two ground tests for model intercomparison (Berau and Jakarta)

February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia

February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia MEXT Special Coordination Funds for for Promoting Science and Technology Asia S&T Strategic Cooperation Program International Research for Prevention and Mitigation