EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN JAKARTA FLOOD CASE 2013 BASED ON COSMO MODEL

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1 EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN JAKARTA FLOOD CASE 2013 BASED ON COSMO MODEL Erma Yulihastin 1,2) and Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono 2) Center for Science and Technology of Atmosphere, LAPAN, Indonesia 1) Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB, Indonesia 2) International Conference on Ecohydrology November 10-12, 2014, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 1

2 Conclusion 4 Background 1 3 Result and Discussion 2 Method Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 2

3 Jakarta flood disaster which occurred on January 17, 2013, impact to economic losses at about ten of trillions of rupiah and killed 38 people [1]. Source: Trilaksono et.al., 2011 Event Date Killed Evacuated Damaged House Floods 17 Jan Floods 17 Jan Source: BNPB, Based on previous studies, floods in Jakarta during DJF (December- January- February) are influenced by synoptic scale disturbances related to Asian winter monsoon intensification. Strong Asian winter monsoon blowing northerly from Sout China Sea crossing equator to Jakarta coast, coincide with cold surge [2,3,4,5]. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 3

January Climatology of Wind 850 mb During January (latephase of Boreal Winter), strong surface (lower level) wind blowing from South China Sea crossing the equator to Java Sea and usually reaching

4 January Climatology of Wind 850 mb During January (latephase of Boreal Winter), strong surface (lower level) wind blowing from South China Sea crossing the equator to Java Sea and usually reaching north of Jakarta coast. The northerly wind, accompanied by lower temperature, then so-called Cross Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS). Source: Hattori dkk., 2011 Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 4

5 V&Div V&Div V&Div Source: Chang, 2005 Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 5

Describe evolution of heavy rainfall caused Jakarta floods on 17 January 2013.

6 Describe evolution of heavy rainfall caused Jakarta floods on 17 January Verify the COSMO model for capture extreme event to improve our Satellite Disaster Early Warning System (SADEWA-LAPAN). Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 6

7 This study using a Numerical Weather Prediction of Consortium of Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) with a 7 km spatial resolution. Verification of the model results using TRMM satellite with 25 km spatial resolution, station ground based data, reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR. A non-hydrostatic COSMO model is designed for operational purposes and other scientific purposes. COSMO Model developed by the DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) Germany in 2007, using the basic equations that describe the thermo-hydrodynamics of compressible flow in a moist atmosphere. Meteorological conditions at the time of the flood was simulated using the most optimum model spatial resolution of 7 km. Spatial resolution of 7 km used to detect regional circulation over Java and surrounding areas (parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan). Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 7

Grid spacing: 7 km Layers: 40 Simulation range: 15-25 January 2013 12 h forecast, at 00 UTC, hourly INPUT COSMO model: The global model GME covers the

8 Grid spacing: 7 km Layers: 40 Simulation range: January h forecast, at 00 UTC, hourly INPUT COSMO model: The global model GME covers the Earth with an icosahedral-hexagonal grid; grid spacing: 20 km and 60 layers. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 8

9 Topographical data INPUT: GME Initial data (analysis) Regional NWP COSMO Model Output Lateral boundary data Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 9

10 mm mm mm Precipitation January 2013 (TRMM and Station) (a) TRMM (106,875 o BT, o LS) (b) Soeta St (c) Tj. Priok St (d) Jkt. Obs. St. 133, Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 10

11 Evolution Precipitation 17 January COSMO Model (a) (c) TRMM Satellite (b) (d) Based on the model results, it is seen that the COSMO could capture the signal of extreme events such as the maximum precipitation over Jakarta. This is evidenced by the results of the model precipitation values which are approaching the value of TRMM. The maximum precipitation concentrated in Jakarta and surrounding areas shown by TRMM about mm/3hr dan COSMO mm/3hr. In addition, pattern of precipitation results both of COSMO and TRMM show similar, which maximum precipitation is concentrated over Jakarta whereas over Java Sea and Strait of Karimata precipitation was minimum. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 11

12 Evolution Precipitation 17 January COSMO Model (a) (c) TRMM Satellite (b) (d) Figures illustrates the evolution of precipitation from noon till tonight. Next, in the afternoon, 13:00 to 16:00 pm, the higher precipitation over West Java still shown by the results of the model (5-15 mm), which is also shown by the TRMM satellite (10-15 mm). While in the afternoon until the evening, 4:00 p.m.- 19:00 pm, precipitation over the West Java reduced to its minimum value. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 12

13 Model Verification of Wind NCEP/NCAR (a) 00UTC Model QUICKSCAT (d) (b) 06UTC (c) 12UTC Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 13

Evolution of Wind Surface 17 January 03UTC

strong northerly (8-12 m/s) blowing from the

The CENS occured especially in the middle

14 Evolution of Wind Surface 17 January 03UTC 09UTC 06UTC 12UTC During that time, very strong northerly (8-12 m/s) blowing from the South China Sea to the north coast of Jakarta. The CENS occured especially in the middle ( o E,3 o N-6 o S) continously from morning (7:00AM) to 19:00PM. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 14

( 21-23 o C ) of the Java Sea to the northern coast of Jakarta and West Java as a whole.

15 Evolution of Temperature 17 January 03UTC 09UTC 06UTC 12UTC Besides evidenced by the wind from the north, the existence of CENS headed to the area of Jakarta (West Java ) is also shown by the propagation cooler temperatures ( o C ) of the Java Sea to the northern coast of Jakarta and West Java as a whole. This condition occurs in the morning 10:00 am until 13:00 pm noon. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 15

Evolution of Total Cloud Cover 17 January

cloud cover shows that convection process

16 Evolution of Total Cloud Cover 17 January 03UTC 09UTC 06UTC 12UTC Evolution of total cloud cover shows that convection process persistent over West Java from morning to night. This total cloud cover appropriate to the heavy rainfall which is occurred over Jakarta. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 16

17 Trans-equatorial monsoon flow is shown by the vertical structure of the northerly and uniform in most of the Karimata Strait, Java Sea and across the equator in 17 January during flood event. The clearly and strongly CENS pattern effectively has triggering convection occurs rapidly and extends over around Jakarta and caused heavy rainfall in the morning on the northern coast of Jakarta. The COSMO model could forecast for 12 hr of extreme event case well. Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 17

18 [1] Wu, P., Arbain A.A., Mori, S., Hamada, J., Hattori, M., Syamsudin, F., & Yamanaka, M.D., The Effects of an Active Phase of the Madden-Juian Oscillation on the Extreme Precipitation Event over Western Java Island in January 2013, SOLA, 9, pp , [2] Chang, C.P., Harr P.A., & Chen, H.J., Synoptic Disturbance over the Equatorial South China Sea and Western Maritime Continent during Boreal Winter, Monthly Weather Review, 133, pp , [3] Wu, P., Hara, M., Fudeyasu, H., Yamanaka, M.D., & Matsumoto, J., The Impact of Transequatorial Monsoon Flow on the Formation of Repeated Torrential Rains over Java Island, SOLA, 3, pp , [4] Taryono, Kajian Aktivitas Cold Surge dan Southerly Surge Saat Monsun Asia Musim Dingin di Wilayah Jawa, Master Thesis, Program Studi Sains Kebumian, ITB, [5] Trilaksono, N.J., Otsuka, S., & Yoden, S., A Time-Lagged Ensemble Simulation on the Modulation of Precipitation over West Java in January-February 2007, Monthly Weather Review, 140, pp , [6] Hidayat, R. & Kizu, S., Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Indonesian Rainfall Variability in Australia Summer, International Journal of Climate, 30, pp , [7] Hattori, M., Mori, S., & Matsumoto, J., The Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge over the Maritime Continent and Its Realtionship to Precipitation Patterns, Jornal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 89A, pp , [8] Aldrian, E., Dominant factors of the Jakarta s three largest floods, Jurnal Hidrosfir Indonesia, Yulihastin and Trilaksono, Evolution of Heavy Rainfall in Jakarta Flood Case 18

The Effects of an Active Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the Extreme Precipitation Event over Western Java Island in January 2013

79 The Effects of an Active Phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the Extreme Precipitation Event over Western Java Island in January 2013 Peiming Wu 1, Ardhi Adhary Arbain 2, Shuichi Mori 1, Jun-ichi