Center Report from KMA
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1 WGNE-30, College Park, Maryland, United States, March 2015 Center Report from KMA Forecasting System Operation & Research Dong-Joon Kim Numerical Prediction Office Korea Meteorological Administration
2 Outlines KMA s Operational NWP System Overview Hardware and NWP Systems Major R&D Activities in 2014 and Performance Operational NWP System upgrade Verification Scores KIAPS Development Further Development / Research Plans 2
3 Operational NWP Systems Hardware(HPC) and Software
4 Current Operational HPC (Cray XE6) Main System (20 Cabinets, 379TFlop/s) Ref Main (HaeOn) Backup (HaeDam) Total Installation Year HaeOn Backup / R&D System (20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s) Core Number 45,120 45,120 90,240 Core Type AMD 2.1 GHz, 12 core Peak performance 379 TF 379 TF 758TF Main Memory 60 TB 60 TB 120TB Capacity of Disk Capacity of Tape drive 4 PB 8 PB HaeDam OS Suse Linux 11 4
5 New HPC Introduction Contract : June 2014 Installation of Initial Stage System : November 2014 Installation of Final Stage System : Q System architecture CRAY XC40-LC (3 cabinets) CRAY XC40-LC (16 cabinets*2set) Peak Perf. (TF) 447 5,800 Processor type & Memory Intel haswell 2.6GHz 24cores/node 128GB/node Intel haswell 2.6GHz 24cores/node 128GB/node(comp) 258GB/node(pre-post) # Nodes computational (448nodes) Pre-post (12nodes) computational (2,904nodes*2set) Pre-post (56nodes*2set) Login nodes 4 set 8 set I/O System 3.3PB > 50GB/sec > 13.5PB > 248GB/sec The initial stage system (Uri) was ranked #148 on Top 500 list (Nov.2014) 5
6 Operational NWP Systems Global Medium-range Prediction Deterministic : UM 25km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC), T+87hrs (06/18UTC) / Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR Ensemble : UM 40km L70 / T+288hrs (00/12UTC) / 24 Members / Perturb. : ETKF, RP, SKEB2 Short-range Prediction (E-Asia) UM 12km L70 / T+87hrs (6 hourly) / 4DVAR / Deterministic (Very) Short-range Prediction (Local) Deterministic : UM 1.5km L70 / T+36hrs (6 hourly) / 3DVAR (3 hourly) Ensemble : In preparation (Q3 2015) 6
7 Operational NWP Models (March 15) Model Resolution Target Length Target / Purpose Seasonal GloSea5(Global) N215(60km) L days(m2) 60 days(m2) Seasonal prediction (~6months) Medium -range (Very) Shortrange Applica -tion Models GDAPS (Global) N512(25km) L70 T+288 (00/12) T+87 (06/18) Global deterministic Global EPS (Global) N320 L70 M24 T+288 Global probabilistic RDAPS (E.Asia) 12km L70 T+87 East Asia / Short-range LDAPS (Korea) 1.5km L70 T+36 Korea / Short-range KLAPS (Korea) 5km T+12 Korea / Very short-range Wave Watch III 55km T+288 Global 8km T+87 Northeast Asia 1km T+72 Coastal ADAM (Dust & Aerosol) 30km T+72 Asia dust DBAR (Typhoon) 35km T+72 Track Tide/Storm Surge 9km T+87 Northeast Asia 7
8 Operational NWP Models (March 15) Complexity GloSea5 : UM (N216L85)+NEMO(ORCA025L75) 60 days prediction(2mem) : weekly prediction (~ 8weeks) 220 days prediction (2Mem) : monthly prediction(~ 6months) Hindcast(42Mem=3Mem/yr): 1996~2009(14 years) Earth System A-O Coupling Atmos.(+Sfc.) 8 Resolution 100km 10km 1km 1day 3days 10days 1month 6months >year LDAPS RDAPS NWP GDAPS Global EPS GAP Seasonal Prediction Climate Research Climate Models Earth System Model Target Length
9 Major Upgrades in 2014 and NWP Performance
10 Operational System Upgrade (2014) Global NWP System (GDAPS) No major upgrade in 2014 MetOp-B (ATOVS, IASI) data is used since Nov Regional NWP System (RDAPS) Revision of Background Error Covariance for the East Asia domain T+12 Forecast Error OLD NEW Reduction of Continental (China) Warm Bias in the New D.A. System Software version upgrade of observation pre-processing (OPS), variational D.A. (VAR) and atmospheric model (UM) Ancillary data (LAI) update : Heat/Moisture flux improved 10
11 Operational System Upgrade (2014) Regional NWP System (RDAPS) - continued Percentage Improvement (New vs. Oper.) / RMS Error / Verification against Analysis Local NWP System (LDAPS) Software version upgrade of atmospheric model (UM) Physics configuration update : Improvement of surface temperature and fog prediction performance 11
12 Operational Global Model Performance Model : GSM T106 GSM T213 GSM T426 UM N320 UM N512 D. A. : 1dVar 3DOI 3dVar FGAT 4dVar Hybrid 4dVar (TOVS) 12
13 13 Operational Global Model Performance
14 Forecast Sensitivity to Observation FSO based on the operational global NWP system (Dry Energy Norm, J/kg) - Global Domain Total Impact Mean Impact per Observation Satellite Data 58%, Non-Satellite Data 42% Sonde >> GPS_RO > IASI (vertical sounding) - East Asia Domain Total Impact Mean Impact per Observation 14 Impact of Synoptic Obs. (Sonde) is still dominant in the East Asia domain
15 KIAPS Development Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (2011~2019)
16 Major Achievement in 2014 (D.A.) Building 3DVAR System on a Cubed-Sphere 3DVAR system on a cubed-sphere Spectral filter and Eigenvalue analysis Background error covariance Variable transform method Improvement of cost-function minimization enhanced computational efficiency Combination of 3DVAR system and KIM (KIAPS Integrated Model) Successful generation of analysis field via 3DVAR 16
17 Major Achievement in 2014 (Model) Building β-version of KIAPS global model Horizontal resolution : 25km (ne120np4) 50 vertical layers / Top = 0.3hPa Dynamical core : Hydrostatic/Non-hydrostatic system on a cubed sphere (based on CAM-SE HOMME) Dynamical core and physics packages are successfully combined Preliminary Evaluation DCMIP(Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project) tests Severe weather events Medium-range (10-day) experiments 17
18 KIM Results Typhoon Bolaven Case (August 2012) KIM GRIMs (Reference Model) Operational Models Initial Condition : GFS Analysis (No D.A.) Verification score from 10-day forecast for a month (July 2013) RMSE, AC are comparable to the reference model 18
19 KIAPS Development Plan for 2015 Further development of β-version KIAPS NWP System Complete building a 3DVAR-EnKF Hybrid D.A. cycling system Design end-to-end system from observation data acquisition to post-processing/verification system Refine dynamical core and physics package of KIM More emphasis on non-hydrostatic version (Near) real-time run and evaluation of KIM system Operating Scripts (Python) ODB Q.C. D.A. Model Post process Verification Diagnostics 19
20 On-going Research/Development and Further Plans
21 Convective scale EPS Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) Resolution : 3km (horizontal) / 70 vertical layers (~40km) Target length : T+45 hours (03/15UTC) # of Members : 11+1 (or 23+1) Initial Perturbation : from global EPS (LETKF to be tested) Model Perturbation : None (Random Parameter to be tested) Planned to be in Operation in Q
22 Convective scale EPS Preliminary Evaluation Rank histogram and time series show small ensemble spread Initial ensemble spread needs to be increased Warm temperature bias and negative 10m wind bias Ensemble spread needs to be increased by random parameter, etc. 22
23 23 Convective scale EPS LETKF Initialization
24 Further Development of Local NWP System Expanding the outer (low-resolution [4km]) domain Mitigating negative impact of lateral B.C. from global model which sometimes degrades the forecast accuracy 744 * 928 Typhoon NAKRI case (July 2014) 36hr accumulated rainfall amount OBS RDAPS LDAPS XLDAPS 1076 *
25 Further Development of Local NWP System Development of Atmosphere-Wave Coupled System Coupling of LDAPS(UM) with WaveWatch III using OASIS- MCT coupler Considering the air-sea interaction to enhance the short-range forecast performance Optimization of physical parameterizations (especially microphysics scheme) using dual polarization radar and single column model 25
26 Summary of Future Plans
27 Future Plans (Development Strategy) Medium-range NWP (Global Model) Collaboration among UM Community (UK Met Office, CAWCR, etc.) 17km resolution Global NWP System with ENDGame DyCore Real-time run and evaluation ( 15) Operational Implementation ( 16) Use of additional observation (CrIS, ATMS, etc.) Short-range NWP Tuning / Optimization of operational short-range NWP systems LDAPS domain expansion ( 15) Atmosphere-Wave coupled LDAPS (~ 16) Local ensemble prediction system (LENS) Operational implementation ( 15) Enhancement of initial perturbation, etc. ( 16) 27
28 Future Plans (summary table) Year HPC Cray XE6 Cray XC40 (1 st stage) Cray XC40 (final stage) Short-range Deterministic 12km L70 / 4DVAR (East Asia Domain) [Frozen with minor upgrade (new observation, etc.)] 1.5kmL70 / 3DVAR 1.5kmL70 / 3DVAR (-> 4DVAR?) Extended Domain Extended Domain / WW3 Coupled Short-range Ensemble Medium-range Deterministic Medium-range Ensemble 3kmL70 12M (Newly Operational) 25kmL70 Hybrid 4DVAR 40kmL70 24M 3kmL70 12M~24M (ETKF / Random Parameter) 17kmL70 (ENDGame core) Hybrid 4DVAR 32kmL70 (or 25km) 24(44)M (ENDGame core) Seasonal Prediction GloSea5 [60kmL85 (Atmos.) / 0.25deg L75 (Ocean)] Met Office KMA joint seasonal prediction system 28
29 Questions
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