Using Aziz Supercomputer

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1 The Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Using Aziz Supercomputer Mansour Almazroui Director, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR) Head, Department of Meteorology King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

2 Climate Change and its Impact on Temperature and Rainfall in Saudi Arabia Mansour Almazroui Department of Meteorology, KAU

3 HPC is now Everywhere. FINANCE Portfolio risk analysis and optimization, derivatives pricing, fraud detection... ENGINEERING Simulate mechanical and electronic systems before building costly prototypes MEDICINE Simulate the effects and prognosis of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery ENTERTAINMENT Render photo-realistic scenes, customer materials, product illustrations and videos WEATHER & CLIMATE Weather forecasting, climate simulations OIL AND GAS Analyze seismic data to find oil and gas and determine how to extract it in the most efficient way Web source

4 Weather and Climate Research WEATHER & CLIMATE Weather forecasting climate simulations

5 Some Signatures of the changing climate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

6 Some extreme weather events in Saudi Arabia Jeddah: NOV 2009 Jeddah: JAN 2011 Tabuk: Feb 2013 Riyadh: MAY 2010 Aseer: 2012 Jeddah: NOV 2017

7 Establishment of CECCR In 2010, King Abdulaziz University established Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR) CECCR is unique in Saudi Arabia and in the Arab Region

8 Vision of CECCR To be a leading center of excellence for climate change research both on local and regional levels. Mission of CECCR To study climate change and its possible impacts on the society and to provide consultations for the decision makers. Strategies of CECCR Build climate database. Develop and utilize Global and Regional Climate Models. Study the future projections of climate and its possible impacts on the environment, the water resources, the agriculture, etc. Provide seasonal, annual and decadal prediction (projection). Offer scientific consultations for climate change impact and mitigation studies.

9 History of Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical weather prediction involves professionals from multidisciplinary fields. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson made first prediction by hand. It took 6-weeks to compute only 6-hours prediction. Richardson anticipated a forecast factory where he estimated 64,000 human (computer) each responsible for a small part of the globe, in order to predict weather conditions. Richardson Forecast Factory John Von Neumann, a mathematician, built first computer (ENIAC) in Jule Charney, a meteorologist, joint with Neumann to construct first 1-day weather prediction in April, 1950 on ENIAC (took 24 hours). The 1st global model became operational in John Von Neumann with ENIAC The idea of Richardson forecast factory is the current parallel computation in HPC.

10 Complexity of the Climate System

11 History of climate model development Time: Mid 60s to present Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2009)

12 Next Generation of climate model development: Earth System Models Some components of the Earth System Model (ESM) may contain: Atmosphere, Ocean, Biosphere, Land Surface Model, Carbon Cycle, Chemistry Component marine biology ocean model ocean-atmosphere boundary atmosphere model atmospheric chemistry ocean-ice boundary coupler land-atmosphere boundary dynamic ice ice model ice-land boundary land model land biology solid earth hydrological process

13 High Resolution Climate Models AGCM CGCM Spectral Dynamic Core 300km 300km Finite Volume Dynamic Core 300km 300km Physics parameterization improvement 100km 25km 100km 35km Non-hydrostatic Regular Grid Cloud Resolving Model 10km or more fine resolution

14 Climate Simulation Resolutions Source: Mitchell W. Moncrieff More fine resolution is required for many purposes particularly in simulation of Local Climate

15 IPCC depends on Climate Models 1990 FAR 1995 SAR 2001 TAR 2007 AR AR5

16 IPCC Reports and Climate Models Resolutions Increase of model resolution boost knowledge of understanding Climate phenomena Horizontal resolutions: First Assessment Report (FAR): ~500km Second Assessment Report (SAR): ~250km Third Assessment Report (TAR): ~180km Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): ~110km Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): ~70km Is it to increase only the Horizontal resolution?

17 Back to the First Numerical Weather Prediction In 1922, Richarson envisaged an array of people (64000) working each on a segment of the globe can do global forecast He mentioned that in Forecast Factory 32 people requires for each 200km grid In modern days, processors and cores replace people 20km 10km 2.5km From 20km grid (left) to 2.5km grid (right) the accuracy of extreme weather prediction can be dramatically improved and help saving many lives

18 Computing Time (hour) Storage Size (GB) Computing time of High resolution Climate modeling Required Computing resources by resolution Test machine : Linux cluster, Intel E GHz, 1CPU Time Storage Lon x Lat Grid Size Computing time (per a month) Required Storage size 128 x km 1.5hr 0.3 GB x x km 16 hr 2 GB 50 km 6.5 days 9GB x km 23 days 30 GB x Km 62 days 50 GB Grid Resolution (km)

19 King Abdulaziz University Journey PC to HPC Example of Weather & Climate Applications

20 Computational Capacity Supercomputer at King Abdulaziz University 1hr 5min TARGET Exascale HPC KAU-Benchmark for one-month simulation 232 core HPC Sunblade TFLOP 1PB Storage Aziz: core HPC 250 TFLOP 7.5PB Storage 12hr 192hr 32 core HPC 4600 Sun Server PC

21 CECCR Climate Modeling Activities Climate Models & Forecasting Activities Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Global Climate Models (GCMs) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) RegCM REMO AGCM Seasonal Prediction (CGCM) Development (Earth System) MM5 WRF- ARW Global Forecast System ETA WRF- NMM PRECIS WRF- ARW Atmos Land-Use SPEEDY WRF- Dust Coupler (OASIS) Ocean Chemistry (Aerosol and Dust)

22 RCM Projection Rainfall Projection for the Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Change PRECIS-ECHAM Rainfall Change PRECIS-ECHAM Generation of climate projection for the entire globe required powerful machine and huge data storage Almazroui M Int. J. Climatol.

23 RCM Projection Temperature Projection for the Arabian Peninsula Tmean Change PRECIS-ECHAM Tmean Change PRECIS-ECHAM Generation of climate projection for the entire globe required powerful machine and huge data storage Almazroui M Int. J. Climatol.

24 Rainfall at Global Scale 300km resolution TRMM: Satellite data (Precipitation) 100km resolution 25km resolution

25 Saudi-KAU Climate Model Physics Core Dynamics Core Planetary Boundary Layer Convective Scheme Radiation Scheme Dust Module Land Surface Model Saudi-KAU Climate Model development (physics core) The development is conducted by KAU researchers

26 Saudi-KAU Coupled Climate Model Almazroui et al., Saudi-KAU coupled global climate model: Description and performance. Earth Syst Environ 1(1), DOI: /s

27 Saudi-KAU CGCM in Ensemble Prediction System (ESP) All Ensemble members 500-hPa heights (at 40-m intervals) for all 20 members of an 240 hour ensemble forecast from 1200 UTC on 20 November 2017 valid at 1200 UTC on 25 November 2017

28 Access by International Collaborators Access by National Collaborators RCM Ensembles run GCM 50km 25km 10 members 50km 100km At least 6 times speed and large storage required 320 processors required for single simulation At least 6 times speed and large storage required Aziz HPC with Large Storage More accessibility Access for M Sc Students Currently limited Access for Ph D Students Access for CECCR Researchers

29 CECCR contribution to the ENSO Plume

30 CONCLUSIONS CECCR is an example of successful utilization of Aziz Supercomputer for the Weather and Climate simulations. Weather and Climate simulations require models with high spatiotemporal resolutions. High resolutions models outputs require huge computational and storage resources. Published about 25 articles acknowledging Aziz. Overall, CECCR research based on Aziz HPC is having an impact, benefiting the local society and beyond. 2-D Domain decomposition of Saudi-KAU Weather Forecast Model is ongoing.

31 Thank You All