Deducing the Future from Models: Other Model variables.

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1 Deducing the Future from Models: Other Model variables. Arnoldo Bezanilla Center for Atmosfheric Physics INSMET, Cuba Institute of Meteorology, Cuba 1

2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION Recap Regionalization techniques, Models, Output from models and List of Variables Examples of analysis and uses in some cases. Tropical Cyclones Cold fronts. Heavy rainfalls Other examples. (dust, radiation, drought, renewable energy) Summary. 2

Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007 Conservation of energy

3 Recap 1 Equations of a climate model The equations of a climate model (atmosphere) Conservation of momentum Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15, Conservation of energy Conservation of mass Conservation of water (or chemical tracer) Equation of state

4 Recap 2 What is a Numerical modeling? Numerical modeling is simply taking the equations that govern a system and using them to simulate the changes in a system with math. With the right equations and the proper math techniques, scientists can use numbers and variables to create a rather accurate portrayal of atmospheric processes. The equations are solved for specific variables which can be used in visualizations so that we can see how the atmosphere changes with time. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, IV Encuentro RUPSUR, June Universidad 15, del Valle, Cali, Noviembre-2006

5 RECAP 3 How RCM's work from a GCM's output Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, IV Encuentro RUPSUR, June Universidad 15, del Valle, Cali, Noviembre-2006

6 Recap Work Scheme ACTUAL CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE A2 PERTURB B2 REANALYSIS PRECIS is running and driving using observe data CONTROL PRECIS is running and forcing with outputs from a GCM CLIMATE CHANGE PRECIS is running and forcing with outputs from a GCM using an A2 or B2 scenarios CHANGE=PERTURB-CONTROL Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,

7 Recap 5 Models are the best!!! Most agree that GCMs are currently the best way to predict climate change and they are constantly being improved. However, there are two complications for decision makers to consider when using GCMs. First, irreducible uncertainties are an inherent element of climate change, regardless of the sophistication of modelling techniques. The second challenge concerns the resolution of these models. GCMs are built by creating a grid that covers the entire globe. Predictions are made by resolving the model equations for each square and then linking this to the surrounding squares. The complexity of the models limits the resolution at which predictions can be generated. Currently, most GCMs generate information for grid squares that are about 2 square. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, IV Encuentro RUPSUR, June Universidad 15, del Valle, Cali, Noviembre-2006

8 Regionalization techniques. Downscaling Estadístico (SDSM) Regional Climate Models. (RegCM, PRECIS, ETA componente climática) Statistical-Dynamical downscaling Time slices simulations Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,

analogous to the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect

9 SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model) Predictand (local-scale) = function (predictor (GCM)) Statistical downscaling is analogous to the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog approaches used for short range numerical weather prediction. 9

downscaling predictor variables Model calibration Weather

10 SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model) Key functions of SDSM Quality control and data transformation Selection of downscaling predictor variables Model calibration Weather generator Data analysis Graphical analysis Scenario generation 10

11 What is a Regional Climate Model? A HiRes Limited Area Model (LAM) (for atmosphere and earth surface ) that includes representations of the key processes inside the climate system (e.g., clouds, radiation, precipitation, hydrology, etc). Examp. REMO, EC2, CWRF, ReGCM, PRECIS Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, IV Encuentro RUPSUR, June Universidad 15, del Valle, Cali, Noviembre-2006

RegCM (Regional Climate Model) Group of Physics for

of Theoretic Physics (ICTP) Trieste, Italia.

MM4, but in the present its dynamical component is

MM5. Essentially, it is a compressible, grid point

12 RegCM (Regional Climate Model) Group of Physics for Water and Climate (PWC Group) International Centre of Theoretic Physics (ICTP) Trieste, Italia. RegCM3 was developed from the NCAR mesoscale model MM4, but in the present its dynamical component is more similar to that of the hydrostatic version of MM5. Essentially, it is a compressible, grid point model with hydrostatic balance and sigma vertical coordinates 12

inclusion of full gas-phase chemistry, upgrades of some physics schemes

13 RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model) Model improvements currently under way include the development of a tropical band version, coupling with a regional ocean model, inclusion of full gas-phase chemistry, upgrades of some physics schemes (convection, PBL, cloud microphysics) and development of a non-hydrostatic dynamical core. 13

14 RegCM (Variables) 14

15 RegCM (Variables) 15

developed by the Hadley Centre of the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom

16 PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) is a PC-based regional climate model developed by the Hadley Centre of the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom for use by non-annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 16

17 PRECIS (Possibilities) Obtain and Use our own scenarios for climate change To share the obtained results with all the scientific community, and stakeholders. The improvement of the South-South Collaboration Using the outputs to feed other numeric models (Hydrological, Crops models, etc ) The investigation of the extreme events in the future (strength, duration, frequency, season shiftings, etc. ) 17

18 Precis (Variables) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,

19 Precis (Variables) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,

20 The Frequency of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations Cyclone representation is a potential tool to: Investigate and assess the Model ability to represent this type of event Investigate or project future TC behaviour in the area 20

21 TCLVs detection methodology It is designed to work with daily mean fields. On a grid of 0.44 o (50 km), a point of minimum in surface pressure is sought so that the averaged pressure over a circumference of 6 o (700 km) centred in the point is at least 5.5 hpa greater than in the point. The difference between the maximum and minimum values of the wind speed in a neighbourhood of 3 grid points radius (1.3 o or 150 km) centred in the point of minimum pressure must be at least 40 km/h (11 m/s). The end of the track of each individual vortex occurs when in two consecutive days, the points of two consecutive TCLV position are located at a mutual distance of more than 7 o (800 km). The above criteria were adjusted in practice by trial and error based on a detailed visual analysis of selected animated image sequences in the output of the model. 21

22 S W E N 22

23 TCLV's Detection

24 ( Allen(I Huracán 24

25 ( Allen(II Huracán 25

26 ( Allen(III Huracán 26

27 ( Allen(IV Huracán 27

28 ( Allen(V Huracán 28

29 ( Allen(VI Huracán 29

30 Reanálisis Precis Vs Reanalisis 2.5x2.5 o 30

31 Hadley A2 31

32 Hadley B2 32

33 TCLV's future-baseline

34 TCLV's future-baseline

35 ERA INTERIM 50 Vs 25 Km 35

36 Partial Conclusions PRECIS model has shown a remarkable skill to recreate cyclonic vortices from information given by GCMs. Despite big differences between A2 and B2 SRES results do not show a notable difference in the number of days with TCLV. Both GCMs show a big difference in the distribution of number of days with TC. 25 Km resolution performed better than 50 km resolution. 36

37 Debate The projected increase in temperature in Eastern Pacific near the coast of Mexico and the smaller increase projected for Western Tropical Atlantic seem to be consistent with greater projected increase of TCLVs for Eastern Pacific 37

38 Cold Fronts A cold front is defined as the leading edge of a cooler mass of air, replacing (at ground level) a warmer mass of air. In our region it is the main contributor to rain in the non-rainy season. 38

39 Cold Fronts how variables behave

40 Cold Fronts Searching scheme

41 Cold Fronts Comparison

42 Cold Fronts Comparison

43 Cold Fronts 1- The algorithm has the ability to identify cold fronts using inputs like the output of a RCM RegCM 2- The method was effective in 92% of the cases. Compare with the synoptic maps from INSMET. 3- At this moment an improved algorithm is being tested at Center for Atmospheric Physics to apply to daily forecast.

44 PRECIS and extreme precipitation: a case study

45 Experimental Purpose Extreme Precipitation can have a severe impact on human life and livelihood Policy makers and planners have an interest in determining how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation could change in the coming century PRECIS can be used to generate detailed climate projections which will include extreme precipitation It is thus important to establish whether PRECIS can realistically simulate detailed extreme precipitation

46 Experimental Set-up The PRECIS RCM (HadRM3P) was run over four different areas of the world, each featuring differing characteristics and influences on climate. Output data from the RCM was then compared to historical records of rainfall amount (also called observations ). The model was run between December 1958 and December 1999 over each region. The input data was from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 quasi-observational data set (i.e. reanalysis data)

47 Experimental Set-up Precipitation varies in quantity (some days it rains more than other days) Precipitation varies in time (it s not always raining) Precipitation varies in space (rain is a localised weather phenomenon) Extreme precipitation is, by definition, a relatively rare occurrence These factors must be taken into consideration when comparing PRECIS output data against historical observations of precipitation

48 Indices for Comparison Index 1: Multi-annual seasonal mean precipitation Provides a big picture of how well PRECIS simulates precipitation vs. historical observations (i.e. what actually occurred) Seasons are abbreviated via the first day of the month: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON.

49 Indices for Comparison Index 2: Wet day intensity Wet day intensity is defined as the multi-annual seasonal mean of precipitation on rainy days. A rainy day (also called wet day ) is a day which there is more than 0.1mm of rain. Allows for comparison of the total amount of rain which PRECIS produces in comparison to how much rain actually occurred (on rainy days )

50 Indices for Comparison Index 3: Wet day frequency Wet day frequency is a percentage of the total days in which precipitation occurs Allows for comparison between how often PRECIS produces precipitation vs. how often precipitation occurred in historical records

51 Indices for Comparison Index 4: Extreme Precipitation Allows for comparison of the times when PRECIS produces rainfall in the upper 5% vs. the upper 5% of historical observations. Useful to gauge how well that PRECIS simulates extreme precipitation

52 Wet day intensity PRECIS produces too much precipitation in the mountainous west, but overall does well in capturing the spatial patterns of wet day intensity

53 Wet Day Frequency PRECIS performs very well in capturing the spatial distribution of wet day frequency for JJA. Example: the observations show it rains almost everyday in Florida, and rarely in California. PRECIS reproduces this feature.

54 Mean Precipitation Annual mean precipitation produced by PRECIS matches the trends of the observations very well

55 Extreme Precipitation For DJF the pattern correlation is extremely good -- PRECIS is producing extreme precipitation in all the right places. However, it produces too much extreme precipitation in the southeast and mountain west

56 Conclusions Overall, PRECIS showed better performance in time and location in the regions in which large-scale (i.e. frontal) precipitation dominates (the USA and Europe) than in the regions in which convective rainfall dominates (South Africa and India) Mountainous areas were problematic for PRECIS in that it tended to overestimate rainfall in these areas

57 Some Examples (dust)

58 Some Examples (drought) PRECIS_Had SRESA2 SRESB2 Precis ECH PRECIS_ECH SRESA2 SRESB2 Precis Had Zones of Increasing SCPe y SPe40c

59 Some Examples (Wind power & Renewable energy)

60 ( Summary ) Other model Variables RCMs provide a lot of output variables. Many of these variables can be used directly to generate future climate change scenarios. A large number of products and analyses can be made from the output variables or combinations of these. For the postprocessing process it is crucial to know from the users the number of variables and the time resolutions. 60

61 Thanks!!!! PRECIS Online Access Contacts PRECIS Group in Cuba Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero 61

FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING

FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATES FROM STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING Arnoldo Bezanilla Morlot Center For Atmospheric Physics Institute of Meteorology, Cuba The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre