NCAS Unified Model Introduction. Part I: Overview of the UM system

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "NCAS Unified Model Introduction. Part I: Overview of the UM system"

Transcription

1 NCAS Unified Model Introduction Part I: Overview of the UM system University of Reading, December 2015

2 The Unified Model The UM is a numerical modelling system, developed by the UK Met Office, and used for operational weather forecasting and climate prediction. It is licensed to the UK academic community for research. There is also the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP), a strategic partnership between NERC and the Met Office for model development. It is used by forecast centres and climate agencies around the world. 2

3 Seamless modelling The same core model is used across spatial and temporal scales: Weather to climate timescales Global and regional models High to low resolution (horizontal and vertical) Various model heights It can be used in atmosphere only mode, or coupled to: UM ocean vn6.6.3 or earlier only (e.g. HadGEM2) NEMO ocean and CICE sea-ice via OASIS coupler UKCA chemistry and aerosols JULES land-surface It can also be used to perform idealised studies, e.g: Single Column Model (SCM) Aquaplanet 3

4 Crown copyright Met Office 4

5 Global & regional NWP system Parallel suite 36 Global 17km 70 levels (N768L70) EURO 4km 70 levels UKV 1.5km 70 levels [Retired NAE 12km 70 levels] Crown copyright Met Office 5

6 NWP at the Met Office The UM is just one part of a larger forecast system. An example workflow: Academic users can access this data Crown copyright Met Office 6

7 Global models Fixed resolutions: (at mid-latitudes) N96 N144 N216 N320 N512 N768 (192 x 145) (288 x 217) (432 x 325) (640 x 481) (1024 x 769) (1536 x 1152) ~135 km ~90 km ~60 km ~40 km ~25 km ~17 km x x x x x x 0.16 Common scientific configurations used across scales (weather, seasonal and climate): o o o o o GA = Global Atmosphere (UM) GL = Global Land (JULES) GO = Global Ocean (NEMO) GSI = Global Sea Ice (CICE) GC = Global Coupled (all of the above coupled together) These are ongoing developments with fixed releases. 7

8 Vertical resolutions Standard resolutions Defined by model levels and height Example: L85 with top at 85 km Crown copyright Met Office 8

9 NWP v Climate models Run length Global resolution NWP 5 day operational forecast, 15 day ensemble forecast Testing: N320 (40 km) with 15 min ts Operational: N768 (17 km) with 7.5 min ts Climate Months (seasonal) Years, decades, centuries+ Low resolution: N96 (135 km) with 20 min ts High resolution: N512 (25 km) with 15 min ts Calendar Gregorian Seasonal: Gregorian Other: 360 day Dynamics Non-bit reproducible Bit-reproducible Aerosols Climatological concentrations specified. Interactive schemes with emissions specified (not seasonal). Based on information from Dan Copsey 9

10 HadGEM2(-ES) HadGEM2-ES Full Earth system model Development completed in 2009 Used for IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) N96 1 ocean Physical climate Aerosols and chemistry (UKCA) Ocean biogeochemistry Interactive vegetation (TRIFFID) Other versions available: -A (atmosphere only) -AO (coupled atmosphere-ocean) -CC (carbon-cycle) Earth system minus UKCA Human emissions 10

11 HadGEM3(-AO) Under continuous development. There are versions with: different code releases different scientific configurations Multiple resolutions: N96 ORCA0.25 N216 ORCA0.25 N512 ORCA0.25 / ORCA12 (experimental) UM atmosphere (GA) OASIS3 coupler NEMO ocean model (GO) JULES land surface (GL) CICE sea ice (GSI) Can run atmosphere-only (Modified from a Met Office diagram.) 11

12 Other modelling systems MOGREPS: ensemble forecast Based on Parallel Suites GloSea: seasonal prediction Based on HadGEM3 DePreSys: decadal prediction Based on HadGEM3 (formerly HadCM3) 12

13 Terminology Model version: defines the code base used. Model configuration: defines the science options, eg GA6.0, GO5.0. Modelling system: application with specific configuration (eg HadGEM3-GC2, GloSea5). Parallel suite: version of operational forecast system Job: particular instance defined and run by user through (UMUI) Experiment: grouping of jobs in UMUI Suite: Rose job 13

14 Major UM developments Old dynamics New dynamics FCM NEMO & CICE ENDGame Rose Shared repositories UM 4.5 UM 5.2 UM 6.1 UM 6.6 UM 7.1 UM 8.5 UM 9.0 UM Climate models HadCM3 HadGEM1 HadGEM2 HadGEM3 NWP models PS12 PS19 PS20 PS34 PS35 PS36 Dynamical core Infrastructure Ocean model 14

15 UM software (pre vn9.0) UMUI Database of user jobs Graphical job editor FCM Code manager Compilation and build PUMA HPC Reconfiguration Prepares initial model state Atmosphere model Dynamical core Physics Diagnostics (STASH) [JULES and/or UKCA] OASIS Coupler Ocean model Input file tools Prepare ancillary data Output file tools Data processing Analysis and visualisation Local / Jasmin 15

16 UM software (vn10.0 onwards) UMUI Rose Database of user jobs Graphical job editor Cylc / Rose Job submission Workflow manager PUMA FCM Code manager Compilation and build MOSRS HPC Reconfiguration Prepares initial model state Atmosphere model Dynamical core Physics Diagnostics (STASH) [JULES and/or UKCA] OASIS Coupler Ocean model Input file tools Prepare ancillary data Output file tools Data processing Analysis and visualisation Local / Jasmin 16

17 NCAS supported machines NOC PUMA Code repositories Web server (Trac) User /home space UMUI, Rose/Cylc and FCM MOSRS Repositories: Code (UM 10.x) Rose suites UM submission Lander Rose VM MONSooN Polaris HPC Wales File systems: /home and /work RDF File systems: /home, /projects MASS Jasmin 17

18 Upcoming UM developments Short-term: Release of GA7 (and GC3) Medium term: N1024 -> N2048 global forecasts UKESM(-Hi /-Lo) Earth system model To include land ice sheets, ocean biogeochemistry, plus carbon and nitrogen cycles Long term: LFRiC replacement for the UM GungHo highly scalable dynamical core 18

Designing experiments to assess the need for high resolution models for coupled prediction

Designing experiments to assess the need for high resolution models for coupled prediction Designing experiments to assess the need for high resolution models for coupled prediction Helene Hewitt, Malcolm Roberts, Richard Wood, Adam Scaife, Jonathan Gregory, Craig MacLachlan (Met Office) Justin

More information

ESM development at the Met Office Hadley Centre

ESM development at the Met Office Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES RT1/RT2A Meeting ECMWF, 8-9 th Jun 2006 ESM development at the Met Office Hadley Centre Tim Johns, and HadGEM model development teams Crown copyright Page 1 Model Development Timeline: HadGEM1a/GEM2/GEM2ES

More information

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere

More information

interpreted by András Horányi Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Seasonal Forecasts Anca Brookshaw (anca.brookshaw.ecmwf.int)

interpreted by András Horányi Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Seasonal Forecasts Anca Brookshaw (anca.brookshaw.ecmwf.int) interpreted by András Horányi (C3S) Seasonal Forecasts Anca Brookshaw (anca.brookshaw.ecmwf.int) Seasonal forecasts in C3S essential climate variables climate indicators reanalysis Climate Data Store (CDS)

More information

The Climate and Weather Science Laboratory an integrated facility for our research community

The Climate and Weather Science Laboratory an integrated facility for our research community The Climate and Weather Science Laboratory an integrated facility for our research community www.cawcr.gov.au Tim F. Pugh NeCTAR Project Leader ACOMO Conference, Canberra 3-4 October 2012 Climate & Weather

More information

Model Error Diagnosis across Timescales

Model Error Diagnosis across Timescales Model Error Diagnosis across Timescales Sean Milton THORPEX PDP Workshop Diagnosis of Model errors Traceable Model Error Diagnosis Framework Characterizing Model Systematic Errors across timescales (Study

More information

UK plans and recommendations for CMIP6

UK plans and recommendations for CMIP6 UK plans and recommendations for CMIP6 Catherine Senior Presentation to WGCM17, Victoria, October 1st, 2013 UK Model Development for CMIP6 2013/4: HadGEM3-GC2 (physical coupled N216(~60km), O(1/4)º) NEMO+CICE

More information

Nowcasting for the London Olympics 2012 Brian Golding, Susan Ballard, Nigel Roberts & Ken Mylne Met Office, UK. Crown copyright Met Office

Nowcasting for the London Olympics 2012 Brian Golding, Susan Ballard, Nigel Roberts & Ken Mylne Met Office, UK. Crown copyright Met Office Nowcasting for the London Olympics 2012 Brian Golding, Susan Ballard, Nigel Roberts & Ken Mylne Met Office, UK Outline Context MOGREPS-UK AQUM Weymouth Bay models Summary Forecasting System Generic Products

More information

UKESM1 developments and plans for CMIP6

UKESM1 developments and plans for CMIP6 UKESM1 developments and plans for CMIP6 Alistair Sellar UKESM science manager Outline Current status of UKESM core group UKESM1 development status and timeline UKESM1 plans for CMIP6 UKESM core group:

More information

September 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook June Report (Using May Data)

September 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook June Report (Using May Data) Met Office September 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook June Report (Using May Data) K.A. Peterson, C. MacLachlan, E.W. Blockley, and A.A. Scaife Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK June

More information

Ocean model, Interconnections within the climate model

Ocean model, Interconnections within the climate model Ocean model, Interconnections within the climate model Vladimir Djurdjevic and Bora Rajkovic EXPERT WORKSHOP SEE RESEARCH FRAMEWORK IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING FOR 2012-2017 Belgrade, Serbia, April 11-13,

More information

MACSSIMIZE. Measurements of Arctic Clouds, Snow, and Sea Ice nearby the Marginal Ice ZonE. Principal investigator. Chawn Harlow

MACSSIMIZE. Measurements of Arctic Clouds, Snow, and Sea Ice nearby the Marginal Ice ZonE. Principal investigator. Chawn Harlow MACSSIMIZE Measurements of Arctic Clouds, Snow, and Sea Ice nearby the Marginal Ice ZonE Principal investigator Chawn Harlow chawn.harlow@metoffice.gov.uk Met Office Areas of contribution Polar atmospheric

More information

Crossing the Chasm. On the Paths to Exascale: Presented by Mike Rezny, Monash University, Australia

Crossing the Chasm. On the Paths to Exascale: Presented by Mike Rezny, Monash University, Australia On the Paths to Exascale: Crossing the Chasm Presented by Mike Rezny, Monash University, Australia michael.rezny@monash.edu Crossing the Chasm meeting Reading, 24 th October 2016 Version 0.1 In collaboration

More information

An Overview of HPC at the Met Office

An Overview of HPC at the Met Office An Overview of HPC at the Met Office Paul Selwood Crown copyright 2006 Page 1 Introduction The Met Office National Weather Service for the UK Climate Prediction (Hadley Centre) Operational and Research

More information

Seamless weather and climate for security planning

Seamless weather and climate for security planning Seamless weather and climate for security planning Kirsty Lewis, Principal Climate Change Consultant, Met Office Hadley Centre 28 June 2010 Global Climate Models Mitigation timescale changes could be avoided

More information

On the Paths to Exascale: Will We be Hungry?

On the Paths to Exascale: Will We be Hungry? On the Paths to Exascale: Will We be Hungry? Presentation by Mike Rezny, Monash University, Australia michael.rezny@monash.edu 4th ENES Workshop High Performance Computing for Climate and Weather Toulouse,

More information

Climate Services in Practice UK Perspective

Climate Services in Practice UK Perspective Climate Services in Practice UK Perspective Chris Hewitt ICCS, Columbia University, October 2011 Overview Perspectives on: Why have a climate service? What is a climate service? UK activities Examples

More information

DFID - Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP)

DFID - Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) DFID - Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) WORKPLAN 1. Background 1a) Meeting the Science Requirements for Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Planning Climate variability

More information

Australian CMIP5 activities

Australian CMIP5 activities Australian CMIP5 activities www.cawcr.gov.au Tony Hirst Earth System Modelling Program, CAWCR 21 October 2011 Outline Coupled modelling for CMIP5 CSIRO Mk3.6 Established global AOGCM CMIP5 long term only

More information

Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections

Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues

More information

Forecasts for the Future: Understanding Climate Models and Climate Projections for the 21 st Century

Forecasts for the Future: Understanding Climate Models and Climate Projections for the 21 st Century Forecasts for the Future: Understanding Climate Models and Climate Projections for the 21 st Century Linda E. Sohl NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Center for Climate Systems Reseearch

More information

From GungHo to LFRic. Replacing the Met Office Unified Model Steve Mullerworth. Crown copyright Met Office

From GungHo to LFRic. Replacing the Met Office Unified Model Steve Mullerworth. Crown copyright Met Office From GungHo to LFRic Replacing the Met Office Unified Model Steve Mullerworth Summary the perspective from a Computational Scientist point of view Where are we now What are Gung Ho and LFRic LFRic plan

More information

Regional Atmosphere. Developing a unified science configuration for Convection- Permitting Climate and NWP simulations

Regional Atmosphere. Developing a unified science configuration for Convection- Permitting Climate and NWP simulations Regional Atmosphere Developing a unified science configuration for Convection- Permitting Climate and NWP simulations Mike Bush + a cast of thousands! GEWEX Convection-Permitting Climate Modelling Workshop

More information

Introduction to HadGEM2-ES. Crown copyright Met Office

Introduction to HadGEM2-ES. Crown copyright Met Office Introduction to HadGEM2-ES Earth System Modelling How the climate will evolve depends on feedbacks Ecosystems Aerosols Chemistry Global-scale impacts require ES components Surface temperature Insolation

More information

From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models

From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models Christian Jakob, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia! Special

More information

Performance of Met Office Weather and Climate Codes on Cavium ThunderX2 Processors. Adam Voysey, Maff Glover HPC Optimisation Team

Performance of Met Office Weather and Climate Codes on Cavium ThunderX2 Processors. Adam Voysey, Maff Glover HPC Optimisation Team Performance of Met Office Weather and Climate Codes on Cavium ThunderX2 Processors Adam Voysey, Maff Glover HPC Optimisation Team Contents Introduction The Met Office and why we use HPC UM and NEMO Results

More information

Convective-scale NWP for Singapore

Convective-scale NWP for Singapore Convective-scale NWP for Singapore Hans Huang and the weather modelling and prediction section MSS, Singapore Dale Barker and the SINGV team Met Office, Exeter, UK ECMWF Symposium on Dynamical Meteorology

More information

T2.2: Development of assimilation techniques for improved use of surface observations

T2.2: Development of assimilation techniques for improved use of surface observations WP2 T2.2: Development of assimilation techniques for improved use of surface observations Matt Martin, Rob King, Dan Lea, James While, Charles-Emmanuel Testut November 2014, ECMWF, Reading, UK. Contents

More information

Using Aziz Supercomputer

Using Aziz Supercomputer The Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Using Aziz Supercomputer Mansour Almazroui Director, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR) Head, Department of Meteorology King Abdulaziz

More information

A Scientific Challenge for Copernicus Climate Change Services: EUCPXX. Tim Palmer Oxford

A Scientific Challenge for Copernicus Climate Change Services: EUCPXX. Tim Palmer Oxford A Scientific Challenge for Copernicus Climate Change Services: EUCPXX Tim Palmer Oxford Aspects of my worldline 1. EU Framework Programme PROVOST, DEMETER EUROSIP 2. Committee on Climate Change Adaptation

More information

The ENSEMBLES Project

The ENSEMBLES Project The ENSEMBLES Project Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts by Dr. Chris Hewitt Abstract The main objective of the ENSEMBLES project is to provide probabilistic estimates

More information

Climpact2 and regional climate models

Climpact2 and regional climate models Climpact2 and regional climate models David Hein-Griggs Scientific Software Engineer 18 th February 2016 What is the Climate System?? What is the Climate System? Comprises the atmosphere, hydrosphere,

More information

Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis

Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis Matt Martin. ERA-CLIM2 Symposium, University of Bern, 14 th December 2017. Contents Introduction. On-going developments to improve ocean data assimilation for reanalysis.

More information

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Using ECMWF forecasts, 4-6 June 2014 1 Outline Recent progress and plans

More information

Climate Modeling in a Changed World

Climate Modeling in a Changed World Climate Modeling in a Changed World Lawrence Buja southern@ucar.edu National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341- Jim Hack Weather vs Climate Climate Change Boundary Conditions Threats

More information

Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK

Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK NCEO Early Career Science Conference 16th 18th April 2012 Introduction to data assimilation Page 2 of 20

More information

Climpact2 and PRECIS

Climpact2 and PRECIS Climpact2 and PRECIS WMO Workshop on Enhancing Climate Indices for Sector-specific Applications in the South Asia region Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune, India, 3-7 October 2016 David Hein-Griggs

More information

Understanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017

Understanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 Understanding Weather and Climate Risk Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 What is risk in a weather and climate context? Hazard: something with the

More information

Climate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales. John Houghton. C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth

Climate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales. John Houghton. C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth Climate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales John Houghton C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth 26 April 2011 Computer Modeling of the Atmosphere & Climate System has revolutionized Weather Forecasting and

More information

Porting and optimisation of the Met Office Unified Model on Petascale architectures

Porting and optimisation of the Met Office Unified Model on Petascale architectures UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for global Environmental risk ) Porting and optimisation of the Met Office Unified Model on Petascale architectures P.L. Vidale* R. Schiemann,

More information

Seamless prediction Science drivers/ Model development

Seamless prediction Science drivers/ Model development Seamless prediction Science drivers/ Model development Wilco Hazeleger Last winter. Anomalous geopotential height at 500 hpa (contour interval 3m) and 2-meter temperature (K) Seamless prediction The science

More information

18. ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING MAY 2015

18. ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING MAY 2015 18. ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA DURING MAY 2015 Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, and Andrew Ciavarella Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration,

More information

UK/Korea modelling for CMIP6

UK/Korea modelling for CMIP6 UK/Korea modelling for CMIP6 Catherine Senior WGCM-20, October 10 th 2017 Crown copyright Met Office HadGEM3 & UKESM1 Physical climate model Earth system model CMIP5 HadGEM2-AO HadGEM2-ES CMIP6 HadGEM3-GC31-LL

More information

New soil physical properties implemented in the Unified Model

New soil physical properties implemented in the Unified Model New soil physical properties implemented in the Unified Model Imtiaz Dharssi 1, Pier Luigi Vidale 3, Anne Verhoef 3, Bruce Macpherson 1, Clive Jones 1 and Martin Best 2 1 Met Office (Exeter, UK) 2 Met

More information

Progress in NWP on Intel HPC architecture at Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Progress in NWP on Intel HPC architecture at Australian Bureau of Meteorology Progress in NWP on Intel HPC architecture at Australian Bureau of Meteorology www.cawcr.gov.au Robin Bowen Senior ITO Earth System Modelling Programme 04 October 2012 ECMWF HPC Presentation outline Weather

More information

Climate model evaluation using GPS-RO data

Climate model evaluation using GPS-RO data Climate model evaluation using GPS-RO data Mark Ringer, Met Office Hadley Centre ROM-SAF workshop, ECMWF, 16-18 June 2014 Outline Intro using satellite data for model evaluation Evaluation of the new Hadley

More information

Towards the Community Intercomparison Suite within JASMIN DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS. NCAS Research Forum. 25/09/2012 University of Reading

Towards the Community Intercomparison Suite within JASMIN DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS. NCAS Research Forum. 25/09/2012 University of Reading Towards the within JASMIN DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS NCAS Research Forum 25/09/2012 University of Reading Philip Stier Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics University of Oxford Climate

More information

Operational event attribution

Operational event attribution Operational event attribution Peter Stott, NCAR, 26 January, 2009 August 2003 Events July 2007 January 2009 January 2009 Is global warming slowing down? Arctic Sea Ice Climatesafety.org climatesafety.org

More information

Seasonal forecasting activities at ECMWF

Seasonal forecasting activities at ECMWF Seasonal forecasting activities at ECMWF An upgraded ECMWF seasonal forecast system: Tim Stockdale, Stephanie Johnson, Magdalena Balmaseda, and Laura Ferranti Progress with C3S: Anca Brookshaw ECMWF June

More information

The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting

The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Emily Wallace Met Office 7 th June 2018 Research and Innovation Program under Grant 776868. Agreement Background: - Why are they useful? - What do we

More information

Weather at Home sub-project in climateprediction.net. Andy Bowery. BOINC Workshop London 2012

Weather at Home sub-project in climateprediction.net. Andy Bowery. BOINC Workshop London 2012 Weather at Home sub-project in climateprediction.net Andy Bowery BOINC Workshop London 2012 Weather at Home Weather at Home (WAH) is a sub-project within climateprediction.net Weather at Home started in

More information

Baseline Climatology. Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE

Baseline Climatology. Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE Baseline Climatology Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE Copyright EDF Energy. All rights reserved. Introduction

More information

Torben Königk Rossby Centre/ SMHI

Torben Königk Rossby Centre/ SMHI Fundamentals of Climate Modelling Torben Königk Rossby Centre/ SMHI Outline Introduction Why do we need models? Basic processes Radiation Atmospheric/Oceanic circulation Model basics Resolution Parameterizations

More information

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r C3S European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) Webinar 18 th Oct 2017 Philip Bett, Met Office Hadley Centre S e a s

More information

The Met Office climate model HadSM3 and climateprediction.net

The Met Office climate model HadSM3 and climateprediction.net The Met Office climate model HadSM3 and climateprediction.net Michael Saunby 25 January 2007 Page 1 The Hadley Centre for Climate Change Branch of the Met Office - UK national meteorological service Opened

More information

EC-Earth update, new developments and future priorities

EC-Earth update, new developments and future priorities EC-Earth update, new developments and future priorities Colin Jones (formerly SMHI), Wilco Hazeleger (KNMI) Paco Doblas-Reyes (IC3) and Klaus Wyser (SMHI) EC-Earth consortium Denmark* DMI, Univ Copenh

More information

MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS

MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS Characteristics of the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems operational and under development at ECMWF, JMA, UKMO, Météo France, NCEP, MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS and Hydrometeorological Centre

More information

Introduction to climate modelling: Evaluating climate models

Introduction to climate modelling: Evaluating climate models Introduction to climate modelling: Evaluating climate models Why? How? Professor David Karoly School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Experiment design Detection and attribution of climate change

More information

Skilful seasonal predictions for the European Energy Industry

Skilful seasonal predictions for the European Energy Industry Skilful seasonal predictions for the European Energy Industry Hazel Thornton, Philip Bett, Robin Clark, Adam Scaife, Brian Hoskins, David Brayshaw WGSIP, 10/10/2017 Outline Energy industry and climate

More information

Antarctic sea ice changes natural or anthropogenic? Will Hobbs

Antarctic sea ice changes natural or anthropogenic? Will Hobbs Antarctic sea ice changes natural or anthropogenic? Will Hobbs When is a trend not a trend? Antarctic sea ice trends are significant (compared to our 35-year record), but are they significant compared

More information

Storm surge forecasting and other Met Office ocean modelling

Storm surge forecasting and other Met Office ocean modelling Storm surge forecasting and other Met Office ocean modelling EMODnet stakeholder meeting Clare O Neill + many others Outline Ocean modelling at the Met Office Storm surge forecasting Current operational

More information

LONDON & TE December 2009

LONDON & TE December 2009 LONDON & TE2100 10 December 2009 Tim Reeder Environment Agency How is London vulnerable to CC? Flooding Overheating Water resources Air Quality Subsidence and heave Wind storms Global climate events What

More information

Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)

More information

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes

Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. 1 Outline 30 years ago: the start of ensemble, extended-range predictions

More information

Advances in weather modelling

Advances in weather modelling Advances in weather modelling www.cawcr.gov.au Robert Fawcett - speaking on behalf of CAWCR Earth-System Modelling and CAWCR Weather and Environmental Prediction May 2013 The Centre for Australian Weather

More information

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NCAR s climate model data A bit of history... 1960s - 1990s Self-designed self-implemented binary formats 1990s-2000s netcdf-3

More information

The UK Flood Forecasting Centre

The UK Flood Forecasting Centre Storm Surge Networking Forum, Venice: Tuesday 19 th November 2013 The UK Flood Forecasting Centre Dave Cox - Senior Hydrometeorologist FFC Exeter, England. In My talk today I will cover: Ü Overview of

More information

Update on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office

Update on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing

More information

CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project

CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project Chris Folland, UK Met office 6th Climate of the Twentieth Century Workshop, Melbourne, 5-8 Nov 2013 Purpose and basic methodology Initially

More information

Weather and Climate Modelling: ready for exascale?

Weather and Climate Modelling: ready for exascale? A partnership in weather and climate research Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme Weather and Climate Modelling: ready for exascale? Pier Luigi Vidale Willis Professor of Climate System Science

More information

Climate Change Scenario, Climate Model and Future Climate Projection

Climate Change Scenario, Climate Model and Future Climate Projection Training on Concept of Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation 6 th December 2016, CEGIS, Dhaka Climate Change Scenario, Climate Model and Future Climate Projection A.K.M. Saiful

More information

ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System

ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System ECMWF Computing & Forecasting System icas 2015, Annecy, Sept 2015 Isabella Weger, Deputy Director of Computing ECMWF September 17, 2015 October 29, 2014 ATMOSPHERE MONITORING SERVICE CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE

More information

Who is TPAC? TPAC. Located at University of Tasmania, Hobart Partnership between: University of Tasmania CSIRO Marine Atmos. Res.

Who is TPAC? TPAC. Located at University of Tasmania, Hobart Partnership between: University of Tasmania CSIRO Marine Atmos. Res. Who is? Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing Partner in ARCS (Australian Research Collaboration Services Strengths, Earth Systems Science, Compute and storage facilities Located at University of

More information

How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University

How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University Overview of current short term rainfall forecasting Advancements and on going research

More information

Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future

Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Sarah Keeley Education Officer Erland Källén Director of Research ECMWF An independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1975

More information

Using a library of downscaled climate projections to teach climate change analysis

Using a library of downscaled climate projections to teach climate change analysis Using a library of downscaled climate projections to teach climate change analysis Eugene Cordero, Department of Meteorology San Jose State University Overview of Dataset Climate change activity Applications

More information

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Michael Uddstrom 1, Mike Revell, Stuart Moore, Ed Yang, Richard Turner, Sam Dean, Tony Bromley, Ben Liley, & Simon Vosper 2 1 Principal Scientist:

More information

SST forcing of Australian rainfall trends

SST forcing of Australian rainfall trends SST forcing of Australian rainfall trends www.cawcr.gov.au Julie Arblaster (with thanks to David Karoly & colleagues at NCAR and BoM) Climate Change Science Team, Bureau of Meteorology Climate Change Prediction

More information

HYCOM and Navy ESPC Future High Performance Computing Needs. Alan J. Wallcraft. COAPS Short Seminar November 6, 2017

HYCOM and Navy ESPC Future High Performance Computing Needs. Alan J. Wallcraft. COAPS Short Seminar November 6, 2017 HYCOM and Navy ESPC Future High Performance Computing Needs Alan J. Wallcraft COAPS Short Seminar November 6, 2017 Forecasting Architectural Trends 3 NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL OCEAN PREDICTION Trend is higher

More information

Recent activities related to EPS (operational aspects)

Recent activities related to EPS (operational aspects) Recent activities related to EPS (operational aspects) Junichi Ishida and Carolyn Reynolds With contributions from WGE members 31th WGE Pretoria, South Africa, 26 29 April 2016 GLOBAL 2 Operational global

More information

ECMWF Scalability Programme

ECMWF Scalability Programme ECMWF Scalability Programme Picture: Stan Tomov, ICL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Peter Bauer, Mike Hawkins, Deborah Salmond, Stephan Siemen, Yannick Trémolet, and Nils Wedi Next generation science

More information

How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events?

How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? WMO-IPCC Tokyo workshop for weather presenters, November 11, 2015 How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? Masahiro Watanabe Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University

More information

Ocean heat content and Earth s energy imbalance: insights from climate models

Ocean heat content and Earth s energy imbalance: insights from climate models Ocean heat content and Earth s energy imbalance: insights from climate models Matt Palmer 1, Chris Roberts 1, Doug McNeall 1, Freya Garry 2, Roberto Fernandez-Bilbao 3, Jonathan Gregory 1,3 1 Met Office

More information

From predicting weather to simulating climate. A European Earth System model open to the European climate science community

From predicting weather to simulating climate. A European Earth System model open to the European climate science community ec-earth.org From predicting weather to simulating climate A European Earth System model open to the European climate science community Ralf Döscher, Rossby Centre, SMHI Modeling of Climate and Weather

More information

BARRA: A high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over Australia for

BARRA: A high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over Australia for BARRA: A high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over Australia for 1990-2016 Chun-Hsu Su, Australian Bureau of Meteorology N. Eizenberg 1, G. Kuciuba 1, P. Steinle 1, D. Jakob 1, P. Fox-Hughes 1, R. Renshaw

More information

Numerical Weather Prediction in 2040

Numerical Weather Prediction in 2040 Numerical Weather Prediction in 2040 10.8 µm GEO imagery (simulated!) Peter Bauer, ECMWF Acks.: N. Bormann, C. Cardinali, A. Geer, C. Kuehnlein, C. Lupu, T. McNally, S. English, N. Wedi will not discuss

More information

Current verification practices with a particular focus on dust

Current verification practices with a particular focus on dust Current verification practices with a particular focus on dust Marion Mittermaier and Ric Crocker Outline 1. Guide to developing verification studies 2. Observations at the root of it all 3. Grid-to-point,

More information

Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives

Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives Seasonal Forecast for the area of the east Mediterranean, Products and Perspectives Dr Kleanthis Nicolaides Senior Meteorological Officer Department of Meteorology The need for weather forecasts from where

More information

ICON-ESM MPI-M s next-generation Earth system model

ICON-ESM MPI-M s next-generation Earth system model ICON-ESM MPI-M s next-generation Earth system model Climate and Earth system models are applied to simulate the past, present, and projected future climate, and to advance understanding of processes that

More information

CLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update

CLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update CLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update Tatiana Pavlova and Vladimir Kattsov Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia Workshop on Global

More information

Coupled Chemistry in the Met Office UM: current and in a future extended (thermosphere) version

Coupled Chemistry in the Met Office UM: current and in a future extended (thermosphere) version Coupled Chemistry in the Met Office UM: current and in a future extended (thermosphere) version David Jackson QEPPA Meeting, Lancaster 13/03/2013 Overview What is the UM? UKCA chemistry Link to QEPPA goals

More information

Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models

Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1530 Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURE 1. Annual tropical Atlantic SST anomalies (top

More information

REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT

REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT 2017 2019 MEMBER STATE: Sweden.... 1 Principal InvestigatorP0F P: Wilhelm May... Affiliation: Address: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University Sölvegatan

More information

Model projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18

Model projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18 Model projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18 SL SpaceWatch workshop 2016 03 22 Tom Howard, Matt Palmer, Jon Tinker, Jason Lowe,. Contents Overview of UKCP18 Marine

More information

Ensembles, Uncertainty and Climate Projections. Chris Brierley (Room 117)

Ensembles, Uncertainty and Climate Projections. Chris Brierley (Room 117) Ensembles, Uncertainty and Climate Projections Chris Brierley (Room 117) Definitions Ensemble: group of model simulations Uncertainty: doubt and ambiguity about future conditions Climate Projection: modeled

More information

Scatterometer Wind Assimilation at the Met Office

Scatterometer Wind Assimilation at the Met Office Scatterometer Wind Assimilation at the Met Office James Cotton International Ocean Vector Winds Science Team (IOVWST) meeting, Brest, June 2014 Outline Assimilation status Global updates: Metop-B and spatial

More information

Current Progress of CPDN. Andy Bowery, University of Oxford. BOINC Workshop Budapest 2014

Current Progress of CPDN. Andy Bowery, University of Oxford. BOINC Workshop Budapest 2014 Current Progress of CPDN Andy Bowery, University of Oxford BOINC Workshop Budapest 2014 Overview of talk - Introduction to climateprediction.net - Progress: virtualisation of CPDN backend - Progress: new

More information

Earth System Modeling & Prediction Processes & Observations

Earth System Modeling & Prediction Processes & Observations Earth System Modeling & Prediction Processes & Observations The ESMP/P&O programmes in the Deep South National Science Challenge Olaf Morgenstern 1 & Adrian McDonald 2 1 NIWA, Wellington 2 U. Canterbury,

More information

Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature

Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS Atmos. Sci. Let. 7: 81 85 (2006) Published online 18 September 2006 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com).136 Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature

More information

World Weather Research Programme WWRP. PM Ruti WMO

World Weather Research Programme WWRP. PM Ruti WMO World Weather Research Programme WWRP PM Ruti WMO Societal challenges: a 10y vision High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change Water: Modelling and predicting the

More information