Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA

Transcription

1 Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo

2 Major Changes in Operational NWP System

3 Major NWP Changes Global (Deterministic medium-range) T426L40 (GDAPS) GSM from JMA 3DVAR Operation since 1997 UM N320L50 The Unified Model from UKMO 4DVAR Operation since May 2010 Regional (Deterministic short-range) 30kmL33 (RDAPS) MM5 Model FDDA Operation since kmL40 (KWRF) WRF ARW Model Operation since 2007 UM 12kmL38 The Unified Model from UKMO Initialized from Global UM Operation since May kmL40 (KWRF) WRF ARW Model L.B.C. from Global UM - 3 -

4 UM Implementation Background KMA decided to import the Unified Model as a next-generation NWP system (Q4 07) UM Research license (Q4 07) Collaboration Agreement including Science Plan - between KMA and UK Met Office (Operational License, Q2 08) Routine operation of global/regional UM started (Q2 08) Initialized from UK Met Office s initial condition Global D.A. cycle for UM including ODB implementation ( 08~ 09) Migration of UM system to the 3 rd supercomputer (Q4 09) Parallel run of UM system on Cray XT5 Interim (March 10~) Operational run of UM system on Cray XT5 (14 th May 10~) - 4 -

5 Operational UM System GTS/FTP Parallel Suite : ~ Operational Suite : ~ Decoded Obs. (ODB) COMIS Pre-/Post-Server (New) Cray XT5 (3 rd HPC) Global Model (UM N320L50) 10-day Forecast Data Assimilation Atmos. 4DVAR (VAR) Surf. Analysis (SURF) Observation Pre-Processing Obs. Pre-proc. System (OPS) Regional Model (UM 12km) Regional Model (KWRF 10km) Application/Statistical Models Post-Processing - 5 -

6 UM Configuration in KMA Global Horiz. : N320 (~40km / x0.375 ) Vert. : 50 layers (top ~ 60km) +252hr Forecast Initialized by 4DVAR Version : UM 6.6 Regional Horiz. : ~12km (540x432 / 0.11 x0.11 ) Vert. : 38 layers (top ~ 39km) +72hrs Forecast Initialized from Global I.C. Version : UM

7 Main Operational Models ( 10.5~) MODELS Horiz. Resol. (Vert. Layers) Forecast Length Target UM (GLOBAL) 40km (50) 10 days Global Medium-range Fcst. GDAPS 30km (40) 10 days Global Medium-range Fcst. 55km (40) 10 days Global Medium-range (EPS) 110km (21) 120 days Seasonal Forecasting UM (REGIONAL) 12km (38) 72 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst. RDAPS 30/10/5km (33) 66/24/24 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst. KWRF 10 km (40) 66 hours East-Asia SRF UM-based KLAPS 5km 12 hours Korean Peninsula Wave Models (Wave Watch-III) Sand Dust Model (ADAM) Tide and Storm Surge (RTSM) Typhoon Model (DBAR) 60km 10 days GWW3(Global) UM-based 8km 66 hours RWW3(E-Asia) UM-based 1km 24 hours CWW3(Coastal) UM-based 30km 8km 72 hours 72 hours Yellow-Dust (East Asia) UM-based Regional Tide & Storm Surge UM-based 35km 72 hours Track & Intensity Statistical/Digital Fcst days UM-based

8 Operational NWP Models Unified Model Governing Eq. UM-GLOBAL Complete equation (Non-hydrostatic) Horiz. Resolution N320 (40km x0.375) 12km (0.11x0.11) Vertical Layers L50 (top ~ 63km) L38 (top ~ 39km) Forecast Length 10.5 days (252 hours) 3 days (72 hours) Timestep Size 900 sec 240 sec UM-REGIONAL I.C./ Data Assimilation 4DVAR Downscaling from global initial condition Spatial Discretization Time integ. / Advection Radiation Process Surface Process PBL Process Convection Process Microphysics Gravity Wave Drag Surface B. C. Finite Difference method Semi-implicit Semi-Lagrangian scheme Edwards-Slingo general 2-stream scheme MOSES-II land-surface scheme MOSES-II Non-local PBL Mass flux convection with CAPE closure Mixed-phase precipitation G.W. drag due to orography (GWDO) Surface Analysis + Climatology Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC) / 6hour D.A. cycle Twice daily (00/12 UTC) - 8 -

9 Operational NWP Models Others / Global / Atmos. GDAPS (Deterministic) GBEPS (Ensemble) Base Model Governing Eq. GSM (Global Spectral Model from JMA) Primitive Equation (Hydrostatic) Horiz. Resolution T426 ( x ) T213 (0.5625x0.5625) Vertical Layers L40 (top : 0.4 hpa) Forecast Length 252 hours 240 hours I.C./ Data Assimilation 3DVAR Breeding Method + Factor Rotation / 3DVAR Ensemble Size - 17*2 (12 hour time-lag) Spatial Discretization Time integration Spectral Transformation Semi-implicit Scheme Radiation Process SW : Lacis and Hansen (1974) / LW : JMA (Sugi et al., 1989) Surface Process SiB (Simple Biosphere, Sellers, 1986) PBL Process Non-Local PBL (Holtslag and Boville, 1993) Convection Process Kuo Type (Kuo, 1974) Microphysics Large-scale condensation (Sundqvist, 1978) Gravity Wave Drag GWD due to orography (Iwasaki et al., 1989) GWD due to cumulus convection (Chun and Baik, 1988) Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC) 6hour 3DVAR cycle Twice daily (00/12 UTC) 6hour 3DVAR cycle - 9 -

10 Operational NWP Models Others / Regional / Atmos. RDAPS 30km 10km 5km Base Model MM5 WRF ARW Dynamic Frame Non-hydrostatic Non-hydrostatic Horiz. Resolution 30km(171x191) 10km(160x178) 5km(141x141) 10km(574x514) KWRF Vertical Layers 33 Layers / ~50 hpa 40 Layers / ~50 hpa Forecast Length 66 hours 24 hours 24 hours 66 hours I.C./Data Assim. FDDA 3hr cycle (IAU) 1-way interact. 3DVAR / DFI Lateral B.C. Relaxation (12hr) Time & inflow/outflow dependent relaxation (3hr) Updated every 6 hrs (global UM) Spatial Discretization Finite Difference Finite Difference Radiation Process Cloud Radiation RRTM Surface Process 5-layer Soil Model Noah LSM PBL Process MRF PBL YSU PBL Convection Process New Kain-Fritsch None New Kain-Fritsch Microphysics Mixed phase WSM6-10 -

11 Data Assimilation System for Global UM Observation Data and Global D.A. Observation DB : ODB CY32R3 Observations Used Surface (SYNOP/Ship/Buoy), Sonde (TEMP, Pilot, Wind Profiler), Aircraft, Satwind, AIRS (AQUA), Scatwind, IASI (MetOp), GPSRO (COSMIC), SSMIS ~80,000 observations per cycle (80~85% compared to UK Met Office) Analysis Scheme : 4-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Analysis Time : 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC Cut-off Time : 2 hours 25 minutes for Early Analysis 6 hours 25 minutes for Update Analysis Spatial Resolution (Inner Model) : N108(1.67x1.11deg) L50 Assimilation Window : -3 hours to +3 hours of Analysis Time

12 NWP Performance - Global Forecast error comparison (GDAPS vs. UM)

13 NWP Performance - Global RMS error for 500 hpa Geopotential Height / N. Hemisphere Old (GDAPS) New (UM) +5days +3days

14 NWP Performance - Global Verification against Analysis Verification Period April ~ September 2010 ~15% enhancement compared to GDAPS for 500 hpa Geopotential Height (+120 hours)

15 NWP Performance - Regional (Precipitation) Precipitation Verification (against 76 ASOS obs.) UM versus KWRF KWRF(10km) UM12 The Regional UM outperforms KWRF Light Precipitation is significantly overestimated in the UM UM(12km) KWRF(10km)

16 New Supercomputer and Upcoming NWP Changes

17 KMA s Supercomputer 1 st Supercomputer NEC SX-5/28M ~ Theoretical performance 0.2 TFlops 90 2 nd Supercomputer CRAY X1E 1024/MSP ~ Current Status ( 10.10) - 1 st phase of 3 rd Supercomputer - Cray XT5-2,560 cores / TFlops Theoretical performance 18.5 TFlops 37 3 rd Supercomputer CRAY XE6 90,240 cores 2010 ~ Theoretical performance TFlops

18 KMA s 3 rd Supercomputer Initial Phase Cray XT5 MPP System with Lustre Global Parallel File System Processor : AMD 2.7GHz (4 core) Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform. TFlop/s Storage Backup Interim Cray XT TB Main Computational System Cray XT PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) 4.5 PB System 1 Main Computational System System 2 Interim System

19 KMA s 3 rd Supercomputer Final Phase Cray Next Generation XE6 (Baker) MPP System Processor : AMD 2.1GHz (12 core) Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform. TFlop/s Storage Backup Interim Cray Baker XE TB Main Computational System Cray Baker XE PB (Tier0) 1.4 PB (Tier1) 4.5 PB System 1 - Operational Main Computational System System 2 Research/Backup Main Computational System System 3 Interim System

20 KMA s Supercomputer Center Construction : June 2008 ~ Jan 2010 Official Opening Ceremony: Feb 2010 Total Cost: 25.3 billion won(about 23M USD) Total Construction Area : 23,092m2 / KMA HQ: ~16,500m2 Building area: 7,052m2, 3 rd floors Electricity: 250 % greater than HQ UPS: 475 % greater than HQ Cooling : 360 % greater than HQ

21 Upcoming NWP Changes Global NWP System Improving the TC Bogussing Scheme for Global NWP Current Bogussing Method : Wind Bogussing (Obs. Bogussing) New Development : Wind + Sea Level Pressure Bogussing Effect : Improvement in intensity (and track) of simulated TCs Operational Application : Q Intensity error reduced Track error reduced

22 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer New Global Ensemble Prediction System GDAPS T213L40 (GBEPS) Model : GDAPS T213 (0.5625x0.5625) Bred Vector + Factor Rotation No Model Error Simulation 16+1 members (x2, 00/12UTC) 10 day Forecast 6-hourly 3DVAR Cycle 00, 12UTC CPRSS_New Forecast UM N320L50 (MOGREPS-G) Model : The Unified Model N320 (0.5625x0.375) ETKF Stochastic Physics included 23+1 members 15 day Forecast Currently CPRSS_Old on its Pre-operational Real-time Test Operational Run : Q Control I.C. from Deterministic Model 00, 12UTC Forecast Platform : Cray XE6 (final phase of KMA s 3 rd supercomputer) RMSE SPREAD Solid : OPER Dashed : N320L50 Results for Summer

23 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Resolution Change of Global NWP Model UM N320L50 N320 (640x481 / ~40km) 50 Vertical Levels (~63km) UM Version : vn6.6 4DVAR Inner Loop : N108 UM N512L70 N512 (1024x769 / ~25km) 70 Vertical Levels (~80km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later 4DVAR Inner Loop : N144 N320 N512 Max. Height in South Korea domain N320 orog. : 523m N512 orog. : 692m Operational Run : Q on Cray XE6-23 -

24 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Regional 4DVAR UM System UM 12kmL38 12km (0.11x0.11 deg) 38 Vertical Levels (~39km) UM Version : vn6.6 Initialized from Global Model (Cold-Start) 00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours) UM-4DVAR 12kmL38 12km (0.11x0.11 deg) 70 Vertical Levels (~80km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later 6-hourly Atmos. 4DVAR + Global Surface Analysis Downscaled 00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours) Operational Run : Q on Cray XE6-24 -

25 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Local High-Impact Weather Forecasting System UM 1.5kmL70 New NWP System Horizontal Resolution : 1.5km Variable Grid Vertical Levels : 70 Levels (~39km) UM Version : vn7.5 or later Data Assimilation : 3-hourly 3DVAR Cycle Radar Data 12km Domain Pre-Operational Parallel Run : Q Operational Run : Q km Domain

26 Two Tracks on the Future NWP at KMA Successful UM operation on new supercomputer Modification and Improvement Development of our own NWP System Own Techniques PBL scheme, Microphysics scheme, Gravity wave, own dynamics (DFS)

27 Development of an Original NWP System Long-Term Development Plan ( 11~ 19) 1 st Phase : Initial Development Stage Development of Core Modules : Dynamics Core, Physical Parameterization Schemes, etc. 2 nd Phase : Growing Stage Production of a Prototype Numerical Model : Combining Developed Modules and Preliminary Test 3 rd Phase : Mature (Pre-Operational) Stage Stabilization, Performance Enhancement : Preparation for the Operational Implementation # New organization out of KMA! # Invitation for the position of the head of new organization soon!

28 Climate Prediction Division LRF Climate Outlook International Cooperation CPD Climate Monitoring Technical Development

29 LRF and Climate Outlook 1-month Forecast - 3 rd, 13 th and 23 rd of the month 3-month Forecast - 23 rd of the month Seasonal Climate Outlook - Feb. for Summer, May for Autumn, Aug. for Winter, Nov. for Spring

30 Procedure Global SST Prediction Model Global Dynamic Model Statistical Analysis Model APCC MME(15 model, 8 contries) WMO LC-LRFMME(12 GPCs) Discussion (CPD) LRF ET Meeting (season) Int l Joint Meeting (summer, winter) Discussion Briefing Press Release Disaster Prevention System KMA Homepage Mass Media,

31 WMO LC-LRFMME No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries World Best 365 하늘을친구처럼, 국민을하늘처럼

32 Future Plan UM based Atmospheric Model - Operational Forecast System is going to be replaced with the UM based atmospheric model(n144l38) by 2011 GloSea4 - According to the agreement between UKMO and KMA on the joint seasonal forecast system( ), KMA is currently working to move its seasonal forecast system to the GloSea4(HadGEM3N96L85/ORCA1L75) < Major Plan > - Jan 2011: Migration of KMA-GloSea4 from Cray-XT5 to Cray-XE6-2011: Testing of KMA-GloSea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO : Semi-operational run of KMA-Glosea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO : Operational run of KMA-GloSea4 World Best 365 하늘을친구처럼, 국민을하늘처럼

33 Thank You for Your Attention See you again in Korea or other countries!!