Avoiding Nutrient Applications During Critical Periods with a Real-time Decision Support Tool: Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF)

Transcription

1 Avoiding Nutrient Applications During Critical Periods with a Real-time Decision Support Tool: Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) Dustin Goering National Weather Service 27 Feb 2015

2 Overview 1. NWS and River Forecast Centers 2. Why do we need runoff risk DSS? 3. What is the RRAF? 4. Future plans

3 NWS :: River Forecast Centers NWS Strategic Plan :: Weather Ready Nation Leverage existing capabilities towards water quality & Decision Support 13 RFCs Emphasis on real-time modeling of river flow and stage forecasts

4 Why Runoff Risk? ~2008: WI initiates taskforce & asks DATCP to provide tool USGS-Discovery Farm research has highlighted the significance of runoff timing to nutrient transport Critical periods for transport Late winter & spring/early summer Half of annual runoff can occur with snowmelt & frozen ground Awareness of runoff timing should be integrated into managing daily field activities RRAF ideal for incorporation into the 4R Approach Right Source, Right Place, Right Amount, Right Time Reduce application prior to expected runoff potentially reduce losses

5 Runoff vs. P Transport USGS SIR

6 Developing the RRAF First comprehensive, real-time tool for application timing guidance Collaboration of federal & state agencies, universities, and farming community RRAF is NOT only rainfall forecast, NOT straight model output Weather & watershed modeling :: 5 days future precip, 10-days temps Continuously model soil conditions, snowpack, and melt Developed with EOF Monitoring data Model validated against observed data (11 basins out of 216) Basin-specific biases used to develop thresholds to stratify risk

7 Wisconsin s RRAF Spatial scale was always a concern Average lumped-model basin in WI = 300 mi 2 Performance encouraging 80% EOF events captured by model 60+ year simulation for 216 basins 6% time in high risk Hits >> Missed Events Thresholds reduce false alarms focus attention on largest events Regarding false alarms & misses = validate USA with only ¼ of RI DATCP built, owns, and maintains the website (Public Face) With WI-DNR, they often do outreach, media interviews, etc.

8 Wisconsin s RRAF Issued 3 times per day Includes forecast precip (5-days) and temperature (10-days) Basin Pop-up box Normal Mode Winter Spring Mode

9 RRAF Considerations Many factors that applicators use are incorporated into RRAF Provides a second opinion back-up perspective Shouldn t base decision only on this tool Supplement the decision making process It shows my area in high risk, am I missing something? Divert to safer fields? Wait couple days until threat is over? If you have to apply when it s red look closer, be safer, use BMPs Important to communicate limitations to users Model s aren t perfect NOT intended to be regulatory

10 RRAF Gaining Momentum Nutrient pollution in the gaining attention in the news Aug 2014: Lake Erie HAB shuts down Toledo drinking water Des Moines Water Works possibly suing 3 Iowa counties RRAF mentioned in GAO report RRAF mentioned in Wisconsin Nutrient Reduction Strategy Other agencies involved & interested: GLNPO-EPA & GLRI, NRCS, USDA-ARS Ohio State State agencies in Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota

11 2 nd Gen RRAF Formed partnership with GLRI -- Priority Watershed Group Provided funding to develop tool for Michigan & Ohio Minnesota starting development as well Follow on development for IN, IL, NY, PA Transition from lumped model to gridded model (4km x 4km) Spatial scale was concern go from 300 mi 2 to 6 mi 2 Requires new model setup, all new analysis currently under way Looking for more EOF runoff data (between )

12 2 nd Gen Domain vs. EOF Current EOF Locations Working to get more 13 EOF sites vs 200,000 grid cells!

13 Model Basin Sizes vs EOF Green = lumped basin Red box = RDHM cell Pink dot = EOF location

14 2 nd Gen RRAF Mockup

15 Interacting with 2 nd Gen?

16 More Information Wisconsin RRAF Google Wisconsin RRAF Background Information NOAA Tech Report NWS 55 Further Questions & Comments Dustin Goering Steve Buan