The U.S. Drought Monitor: A Composite Indicator Approach

Transcription

1 The U.S. Drought Monitor: A Composite Indicator Approach Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln NWS IN Climate Services Meeting, Indianapolis, IN, June 23-24, 2011

2 Two Predictions: 1) This fall will be very rough given Huskers football red storm coming into Big10 country! 2) Winter in the Midwest is looking very mild as our basketball team is weak!

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5 The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC, NCDC, WRCC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies Western Region Climate Center on board authors in all Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC s, SC s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (300 experts)

6 Objectives Fujita-like scale NOT a forecast! NOT a drought declaration! Identify impacts (A, H) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Be as objective as possible

7 U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

8 U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators: - Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI - Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index - Soil Moisture - Mesonet data In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels - Snowpack (SNOTEL) - SWE - Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

9 The Importance of Local Expert Input The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & Ground Truth Listserver (300 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

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12 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Apr-11

13 The Drought Monitor is widely used: Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NOAA DGT/State drought plan triggers ~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/internet Media/ Network News/ CNN/NPR/etc. Presidential/Congressional briefings NIDIS portal/portlet A model of interagency/level collaboration

14 Some Examples of Decision Making Using the DM USDA Dried Milk Program USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor s declarations) USDA Livestock Assistance IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses) 2008 Farm Bill (NOT the only trigger) NWS Drought Information Statements (DGTs)

15 Essential Tools!

16 Monday DM Inputs 5 days of data available since last map release

17 What has happened since last week? Comments from last week s author Last week s changes Advance comments from experts Rain/snow in D0-D4 areas? No rain in D0-D4 areas AND other areas? Weighing Short-term vs. Long-term

18 Precipitation and Indicators Typically look at the following suite of products at 30-, 60-, and 90-days, Yearto-date, Water Year-to-date, 12-months and 24 months.

19 Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) is a key player..

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21 CoCoRaHS

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29 Monday continued Short-term and Long-term Blends Are there any areas where the Drought Monitor map is different from the Blends? Why?

30 Objective Blends Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

31 Objective Blends Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

32 Remote Sensing/Vegetation Health

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35 Regional and Local Products Various webinars/telecons/reports RCC s SC s NIDIS Pilot DEWS: UCRB/ ACF CA next? NC, HI, TX, AZ, AL, FL

36 UCRB Weekly Drought Assessment Consensus recommendation to USDM author

37 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 22 March 2011

38 TAMU OSC

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40 Provide Regional/County Views

41 Tuesday DM Feedback and Indicators 6 days of data available since last map release First waves of reaction to Draft #1 from DM Listserver Repeat iterative process to produce Draft #2

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43 Wednesday DM Feedback and Indicators 7 days of data available since last map release Repeat iterative process to produce Draft #3 and any other drafts as time allows until final map by COB on Wednesday

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46 Narrative Summary Written Capture key weather/climate features affecting the DM areas on last week s map Highlight status/changes to DM Categories (D0- D4) since last week (i.e. areas that have improved or worsened) Explain any unusual or mitigating circumstances to justify changes or lack thereof: reassessment as well as seasonal issues, regional issues, etc. Outlook section is written for those areas currently under a D0-D4. Based on 3-5 day, 6-10 day, and 8-14 day forecasts. Can mention other special weather features like hurricanes, ENSO, etc.

47 Next Steps Revisit and refresh the DM Classification Table IMPACTS: (S)hort and (L)ong-term drought vs. (A)gricultural and (H)ydrological? Gridded OBDI blends Continue to evaluate and integrate new tools (ET-ALEXI/GRACE/NLDAS/SM/GW ) Continue to work w/ states and basins on a coordinated DEWS: NIDIS: UCRB/ACF/4-Corners/CA HI, NC, TX, FL, AL, AZ Who s Next?!?! Continue to listen to your needs and do what we can.it is a living product

48 Thank You! Any Questions? Please contact me at: Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center