Regional Drought Decision Support System (RDDSS) Project Update and Product Concepts

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1 Regional Drought Decision Support System (RDDSS) Project Update and Product Concepts

2 Part of the Red River Basin Decision Information Network (RRBDIN) NEXT-GEN RRBDIN Decision Support for the Red River of the North Basin RDDSS - Drought Forecast Tool Crowd Sourcing/Social Networking Flood Forecast Tool Phase 6 tool n...

3 Project Background The Regional Drought Decision Support System (RDDSS) for the Red River Basin is the vision of the International Water Institute and collaborators Broad and diverse audience access to a common base of drought related information for the Red River Basin of the North. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded the RDDSS project in 2009 through the Sector Applications Research Program (SARP: Water Resources and Drought Management category). Demonstration project is intended to develop a regional template for a drought Decisions Support System that is consistent with and can be integrated into the efforts of NIDIS Being guided by a Steering Committee Expectations are that the products and applications developed through this project will become one component of the Red River Basin Decision Information Network (RRBDIN) (

4 Steering Committee Summarize work to date Show vision/options for future work Gather Feedback Consistent with vision? Rate priorities Desired time frame for forecasting (30-days? Further out?) Which products are most helpful (i.e., point observations, satellite imagery, modeled/measured data)

5 RDDSS Website Live within the Red River Basin Decision Information Network (RRBDIN) website. ( Similar in design to the Klamath Basin DSS site (i.e. welcome page, links to tools/collaborators/other info). ( News feed for relevant info Links to supporting info/other sites

6 RDDSS Web Page Structure General vision for content Note: links to supporting info and other relevant sites Note: 3 methods of communication Web Viewer Charts Reports Example Products

7 Presenting Results Three Primary Modes of Communication Viewer Reports Plots

8 Four Product Categories Measured Data from Existing Sources (regionally dense network) Precipitation (NCDC and regional sites) Streamflow (USGS gauges) Air temperature (?) Measured/Modeled Data Snow (SNODAS) Precipitation Satellite products (AMSR, vegetative index) Model States and Outputs (NWS River Forecast System) Soil moisture Snow water equivalent/snow depth Streamflow Existing Drought Information Drought indices (e.g., from drought.gov) Report all products as actual observed/modeled value and associated drought indices (Percent of Normal/Deciles). Product generation is fully automated.

9 Percent of Normal Statistical expression comparing an observed climate variable with the normal (i.e., historic) at a location Percent of Normal = [Observed / Normal ] or [Forecasted / Normal ] Normal = 30-year average Example: Week 19 percent of normal rainfall Week 19 normal = x normal = average (x 1980, x 1981, x 1982, x 2009 ); where x = week 19 rainfall Percent of normal = x 2010 /x normal

10 Total Monthly Precipitation (in) Deciles Groups data into 10 different groups with each group (or decile) being one-tenth of the long-term data distribution Alleviates some of the problems with the Percent of Normal approach by basing the analysis on the median (i.e., the 5th decile) of the long-term precipitation record Grand Forks Intl Airport May Precipitation ( ) Likelihood of Exceedance

11 Implementing Product Concepts Example Concept Mainly as envisioned for Viewer Priority (not all can be implemented) Value to user Difficulty to implement Feedback on these items. Are there other potential concept products?

12 Measured Data from Existing Sources

13 Measured Precipitation at Gages Precipitation Stations used in NCRFC operations Spatial scale: point 67 stations around Red River Basin 42 in the Red River Basin Interpolate between points (?) Temporal scale: automated daily download and calculation of index Show: current day, previous 7-days, previous 30-days Products: Viewer: observed data, indices: % Normal, Deciles Plots: observed data, indices: % Normal, Deciles

14 Example Product: Week 19 (May 7-13) Observed and % of Normal Precip / = Week 19 Observed (2010) Precipitation (in) Week 19 Normal ( ) Precipitation (in) Week 19 (2010) Percent of Normal Priority: High Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: Medium

15 Total Weekly Precip (in) Example Product: Week 19 (May 7-13) Deciles Grand Forks Intl Airport Week 19 Precipitation ( ) = 0.4 in 6 th decile Likelihood of Exceedance Priority: High Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: Medium Week 19 Deciles

16 Measured Streamflow at Gages US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage locations Spatial scale: point 99 stations in the RRB Temporal scale: daily download Show: current day, previous 7-days, previous 30- days Products: Viewer: observed data, indices: % Normal, Deciles Plots: observed data, indices: % Normal, Deciles

17 Example Product: Week 19 (May 7-13) Observed and % of Normal Flow / = Week 19 Observed (2010) Streamflow Volume (AF) Week 19 Normal ( ) Streamflow Volume (AF) Week 19 % Normal Streamflow Volume (AF) Priority: High Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: Medium

18 Measured/Modeled Data

19 Estimated (Gridded) Snow Water Equivalent and Snow Depth National Hydrologic Office Remote Sensing Center SNODAS data Spatial scale: 1000 m raster dataset Can also summarize by sub-basin Temporal scale: daily (automated process) Show: daily, pre-defined week, pre-defined month Products: Viewer: observed data, indices: % Normal

20 Example Product: Weekly (Feb 22-28) Avg Observed and % of Normal SWE / = Weekly Avg Observed (2010) SWE (mm) Weekly Avg Normal ( ) SWE (mm) Weekly Avg % Normal SWE (mm) Priority: Medium Perceived Value: Medium Difficulty to Implement: High

21 Estimated (Gridded) Rainfall NCDC observed rainfall/radar data (WSR88-D NEXRAD) Spatial scale: 4 km raster dataset Can also summarize by sub-basin Temporal scale: daily Show: daily, pre-defined week, pre-defined month Products: Viewer: observed data

22 Example: Daily (June 7, 2010) Observed Priority: Medium Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: High * Image shown is from the NWS website. RDDSS Viewer product will be similar.

23 NASA Satellite (MODIS) Products AMSR soil moisture data, vegetation indices Spatial scale: 24 km raster dataset Could also summarize per sub-basin/basin Temporal scale: daily Show: daily, pre-defined week, pre-defined month Products: Viewer: observed data

24 Example: AMSR Daily (May 30, 2010) NASA AMSR soil moisture data Note: daily data often has gaps; if that became an issue, we could potentially use longer-term averages Priority: Low Perceived Value: Medium Difficulty to Implement: Very High * Image shown is from the NSIDC website. RDDSS Viewer product would be similar.

25 Example: 8-day Avg Leaf Area Index Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation Priority: Low Perceived Value: Medium Difficulty to Implement: Very High NASA LAI data Note: satellite data often has gaps; if that became an issue, we could potentially use longer-term averages * Image shown is from the NASA website. RDDSS Viewer product would be similar.

26 Model States and Outputs

27 Modeled Soil Moisture Display SAC SMA model output for Upper Zone Tension Water Contents (UZTWC) UZTWC = water available for evapotranspiration Spatial scale: sub-basin NCRFC has 138 sub-basins in RRB Currently have 5 sub-basins set-up Temporal scale: 7-day and 30-day forecast Products: Viewer: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles Plots: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles

28 Example Product: Week 19 (May 7-13) Modeled Avg and % of Normal Avg UZTWC / = Week 19 Forecasted (20XX) Avg UZTWC (mm) 1 Week 19 Normal ( ) Avg UZTWC (mm) Week 19 % Normal Avg UZTWC Priority: High Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: High 1 Mock-up values for the forecasted (20XX) UZTWC to show the concept

29 Modeled Snow Display SNOW17 model output for snow cover Snow water equivalent, snow depth Spatial scale: sub-basin NCRFC has 138 sub-basins in RRB Currently have 5 sub-basins set-up Temporal scale: 7-day and 30-day forecast Products: Viewer: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles Plots: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles

30 Example Product: Monthly (February) Modeled Avg SWE To be filled with forecast / = To be filled with values computed from forecast February Forecasted (20XX) Avg SWE (mm) February Normal ( ) Avg SWE (mm) February % Normal Avg SWE Priority: Medium Perceived Value: Medium Difficulty to Implement: High

31 Modeled Streamflow Display NWSRFS model output for daily streamflow Spatial scale: point NCRFC has 138 pour points in RRB Currently have 5 pour points set-up Temporal scale: 7-day and 30-day forecast Products: Viewer: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles Plots: average values, indices: % Normal, Deciles

32 Example Product: Week 19 (May 7-13) Modeled Avg and % of Normal Avg Flow Similar to the observed flow, but using modeled values Priority: High Perceived Value: High Difficulty to Implement: High

33 Existing Drought Information

34 Drought Indices Display drought indices Spatial scale: region, state, division Temporal scale: varies (monthly to multimonthly) Products: PDSI, PHSI, Palmer Z Index, SPI

35 Example Products: Divisional PDSI Divisional PHDI Divisional SPI Priority: High Perceived Value: Medium Difficulty to Implement: Low

36 May Streamflow Volume (AF) Flow (cfs) Example Products: Charts of Observed Data 25,000 Red River of the North at Halstad, MN USGS Station: ,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Red River of the North at Halstad, MN USGS Station: Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 26-Apr 24-Apr 22-Apr 20-Apr Observed Apr 6-May 4-May 2-May 30-Apr Daily 'Normal' 8-May 10-May 12-May 14-May 16-May 500, , , ,000 Observed 2010 "Normal" ,000 0

37 Example Products: Reports

38 We need your feedback! Visit our online survey to tell us what you think and rate the products that we ve shown.

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