The United States Drought Monitor How is it Made?

Transcription

1 The United States Drought Monitor How is it Made? Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln September 14-17, 2009 Bamako, Mali

2 The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners

3 How do we get there???

4 Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or indicators Composite Indicator

5 The Drought Monitor Concept A partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and Regional Climate Centers (RCC) (authors) Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC s, State Climate Offices, federal/state agencies, etc.) (local experts) The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions

6 Drought Monitor Authors Currently 10 authors in the United States split amongst all the agencies involved. 1 Lead Author each week. This author is responsible for the production of the map and makes the final decision on all drought depictions on the map. Each author works a 2 week shift and then the responsibilities are assigned to the next author.

7 Original Objectives for the United States Drought Monitor Fujita-like scale for Drought Intensity The Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast! The Drought Monitor is NOT a drought declaration! Identify drought impacts; Agricultural (A), Hydrological (H), or both (AH) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Being as objective as possible

8 Original Objectives for the United States Drought Monitor Fujita-like scale for Drought Intensity The Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast! The Drought Monitor is NOT a drought declaration! Identify drought impacts; Agricultural (A), Hydrological (H), or both (AH) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Being as objective as possible

9 The Drought Monitor Concept A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts Rates drought intensity by Percentile Rankings

10 U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

11 U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

12 Key Variables For Monitoring Drought climate data soil moisture stream flow ground water reservoir and lake levels snow pack short, medium, and long range forecasts vegetation health/stress and fire danger Drought related Impacts other local drought indicators

13 Drought Monitor Timeline Day 1: Production of the next weekly map starts when the last map is published. In the United States, this is Thursday Day 2: Data and information continues to be collected and analyzed while feeback from the current map is received. In the United States, this is on Friday. Days 3-4: Not much is done over the weekend. It is at the authors discretion to continue on Saturday/Sunday. Days 5-7: Production of the Drought Monitor takes place with data for the full week and feedback from local experts considered. In the United States, the data period for the current Drought Monitor is from 12 Z Tuesday to 12 Z Tuesday, with the map being released on Thursday.

14 Drought Monitor Production (Period starts 12Z last Tuesday) Monday (Day 5) (5 Days of data available) Draft map sent to local experts Tuesday (Day 6) (6 Days of data available) Local expert feedback Draft map sent to local experts Draft text sent to local experts Wednesday (Day 7)(7 Days of data available; Local expert feedback ending 12Z yesterday) Draft map(s) sent to local experts Draft text(s) sent to local experts (Outlook) Final map and text sent to secured ftp server Thursday (Day 1 for the next week) Final map & text released on NDMC Website

15 Principal Drought Monitor Inputs USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model Palmer Drought Index SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings Satellite Veg Health

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17 These are the Local Experts

18 USDM Listserve Subscribers (Local Experts)

19 Integrates Key Drought Indicators: U.S. Drought Monitor Palmer Drought Index SPI KBDI - Modeled Soil Moisture 7-Day Avg. Streamflow Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: Crop Moisture Index Sat. Veg. Health Index - Soil Moisture - Mesonet data In The West: SWSI Reservoir levels - Snowpack - Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

20 Indices for The West

21 Objective Blends Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

22 Objective Blends Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

23 Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) is a key player..

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25 CoCoRaHS

26 The Drought Monitor is widely used: Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NOAA DGT/State drought plan triggers ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/internet Media/ Network News/ CNN/NPR/etc. Presidential/Congressional briefings NIDIS portal/portlet A model of interagency/level collaboration

27 Some Examples of Decision Making Using the DM USDA Dried Milk Program USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor s declarations) USDA Livestock Assistance IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses) 2008 Farm Bill (NOT the only trigger) NWS Drought Information Statements (DGTs)

28 The NDMC (and DM authors) have engaged stakeholder communities : USDM/NADM Forums and surveys USDM/NADM Listservers (participatory) USDA/RMA and other projects: workshops, listening session, focus groups w/ producers/etc. (50 since 2003) Meetings w/ Media (face-to-face, conferences) Meetings at annual conferences/trade shows/etc. Meetings/briefings/workshops with/for various federal/state/tribal officials

29 Any Questions? Any Questions? Thank you! Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center