War of the Forecasts: Model vs Project
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1 War of the Forecasts: Model vs Project Tennessee Model Users Group Dan Thomas, P.E. NCDOT - Transportation Planning Branch March 6, 2008
2 Outline Planning in North Carolina Modeling in North Carolina Past Present Future Role of consultants
3 Outline Project level forecasting Evolution Process - handling Procedure - technical Lessons learned Role of consultants
4 Transportation Planning 78,000 miles of roads Responsible for project forecasts 17 MPOs 3 Regional models (9 MPOs) 8 Individual models
5 Branch Manager TED I Mountains TES III Asheville MPO I Hickory MPO Transportation Planning Staff Engineer Western Unit TEM I 20 RPOs Western Traffic Triad Small Urban Plans TES III Forecast Triangle Southeast TES III TES III TES III Traffic Capital Area Fayetteville Asheville MPO County Plans I Forecasting MPO MPO I I Metrolina TES III TSE III Eastern Unit TEM I Northeast TES III MPO/RPO I Eastern Traffic Forecast TES III Mecklenburg- Union MPO I Cabarrus- Traffic Durham-Ch.Hill- Wilmington Rocky Mount Traffic Triangle Regional Operational Asheville MPO Rowan MPO Forecasting Carrboro MPO MPO MPO Forecasting Modeler Strategies Eng I Transportation I TE Planning II Branch I I Traffic Jacksonville Greenville Traffic Metrolina Gaston MPO Hickory MPO AQ Specialist Forecasting MPO MPO Forecasting Regional Modeler Organization I I Admin Officer Traffic Forecasting Admin Staff Model TES III Triad Regional Modeler I Admin Staff Technical Services TEM I Systems TES III State Traffic Forecast Eng. I Admin Staff Traffic Survey TES III See TSU Org Chart Research & Development TEM I Admin Staff Research Engineer. I Research Engineer I Research Staff Engineer Hickory MPO Traffic Forecasting Goldsboro MPO CTP Studies Traffic Forecasting Model Research & Training I AQ Specialist I Research Staff Engineer Hickory MPO Traffic Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Modeling Applications Research Technician TT IV Traffic Forecasting TFM I Traffic Forecasting TFM I Modeling Applications Librarian Technician TT III Technician TT II
6 Travel Demand Modeling The Past 70 s - 80 s NCDOT - model expert MPO - land use expert TranPlan Into the 90 s CHANGE WAS A COMIN
7 ISTEA Changing Times Nationally more requirements regular updates Air Quality conformity Travel demand modeling
8 Changing Times North Carolina Planning staff spread thin Project level traffic forecasts High growth Staff turnover and over and over
9 Travel Demand Modeling The Past Our models became stagnate 100% S-E data survey model drives planning schedule 1st Regional model 1 MPO had model that NCDOT could not use Travel Model Improvement Program
10 Travel Demand Modeling The Present TransCAD Different types of models regional models 4-step (minus mode split) models hand allocation and trend line
11 Travel Demand Modeling The Future Different tool for different needs regional models standard 4-step models quick response (under development) manual allocation trend line
12 Forecasts Model vs Project WHAT S THE PROBLEM? & (WHY) DO WE CARE?
13 Project Level Traffic Forecast Evolution
14 Project Level Traffic Forecast Process Request is made Communicate with Requestor Official Review Distribution
15 Request is Made Tracking status assignment Coordinate with Groups review work load analysis tool (model) project history
16 Request is Made Assignment Planning Group Forecasting Group Consultant
17 Project Level Traffic Forecast Process Request is made Communicate with Requestor Official Review Distribution
18 Communicate with Requestor State Traffic Forecast Engineer Forecaster bridge project 5 months simple widening 6 months major widening/new location > 6 months
19 Project Level Traffic Forecast Process Request is made Communicate with Requestor Official Review Distribution
20 Official Review Internal State Traffic Forecast Engineer AND Forecast Group to Planning Group OR Planning Group to Forecast Group
21 Official Review Private Engineering Firm State Traffic Forecast Engineer AND Forecast Group AND Planning Group
22 Project Level Traffic Forecast Process Request is made Communicate with Requestor Official Review Distribution
23 Distribution Requestor Highway Design Project Development and Environmental Planning Traffic Engineering etc...
24 Project Level Traffic Forecast Procedure Analysis tools and data Scenarios Documentation Resolution of Issues
25 Analysis Tools Traffic Forecast Utility straight line simple interest
26
27 Analysis Tools Travel Demand Model (beware of mixing model output)
28 Project Level Traffic Forecast Procedure Analysis tools and data Scenarios Documentation Resolution of Issues
29 Scenarios Base year no-build * Base year build Future year no-build Future year build * Other alternatives * Required Scenario
30 Project Level Traffic Forecast Procedure Analysis tools and data Scenarios Documentation Resolution of Issues
31 Documentation If the goal were inconsistency - we would win the gold! Planning Group - random Forecast Group - better - standard outline Consultants - good - establishing expectations and standards
32 Project Level Traffic Forecast Procedure Analysis tools and data Scenarios Documentation Resolution of Issues
33 Resolution of Issues State Traffic Forecast Engineer
34 Model vs Project Why are they different? assumptions outputs use Who cares? public
35 Model vs Project What can we do? better labeling/education documentation How is NCDOT doing? getting better and heading in the right direction
36
37 Model & Project - Forecasts at Peace Dan Thomas, P.E. NCDOT - Transportation Planning Branch ext. 389 danthomas@dot.state.nc.us
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