The Weather and Climate Authority

Transcription

1 The Weather and Climate Authority

2 EL NIÑO UPDATE & Climate Outlook (September 2015 February 2016) Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) Updated: 10 September 2015

3 CONTENTS Updates on El Niño Monthly Rainfall Forecast (September 2015 June 2016) Dry Spell/Drought Outlook Summary

4 STATUS of EL NIÑO A mature strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean; Likely to strengthen further before the end of year 2015, and may last until March-April May 2016 season; This El Niño event will potentially be among the four strongest since 1950 ( , , ). - Press Release, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 01 September 2015

5 GLOBAL ADVISORIES INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS As of: 1 September 2015 CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI) As of : 20 August 2015 Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 01 September 2015 SUMMARY A mature and strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of international climate outlook models suggest that the El Niño is likely to strengthen further before the end of the year. El Niño strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-july; The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through Northern Hemisphere winter and is near 70% through spring (Mar-Apr-May) The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since ; All surveyed models indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen, and persist into early Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan As of : 10 August 2015 APEC Climate Center, Busan, S. Korea As of : 25 August 2015 El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific. It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF 2015/16). further strengthening of the El Niño, with the peak of Nino3.4 index being expected during the last quarter of 2015; Positive SST anomalies in the CEEP are expected to be enhanced through February 2016 Strong El Niño is now in progress in the tropical Pacific!

6 CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook Updated: 24 August 2015 The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through 2 nd quarter (MAM) 2016 and is near 70% through AMJ 2016.

7 About our Rainfall Maps For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (September 2015 February 2016)

8 CLIMATE OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016) Updated: September 3, 2015

9 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD (Sep 2015-February 2016) SEPTEMBER 2015 Southwest (SW) Monsoon Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Low Pressure Area (LPA) Ridge of High Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones OCTOBER* - FEBRUARY 2016 *Transition SW to Northeast (NE) Monsoon NE Monsoon Tail-end of Cold Front Easterly wave Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Low Pressure Area (LPA) Ridge of High Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones

10 About our Rainfall Maps For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (September 2015 June 2016)

11 CLIMATE OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016) Updated: September 3, 2015

12 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD (Sep 2015-February 2016) SEPTEMBER 2015 Southwest (SW) Monsoon Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Low Pressure Area (LPA) Ridge of High Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones OCTOBER* - FEBRUARY 2016 *Transition SW to Northeast (NE) Monsoon NE Monsoon Tail-end of Cold Front Easterly wave Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Low Pressure Area (LPA) Ridge of High Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones

13 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) September 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal

14 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) October 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal

15 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) November 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal

16 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) December 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal

17 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) January 2016 Forecast (mm) % Normal

18 Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ( ) February 2016 Forecast (mm) % Normal

19 RAINFALL OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016) Dry conditions will likely affect most parts of country starting September 2015.

20 EXTENDED RAINFALL OUTLOOK (MARCH JUNE 2016) MARCH -JUNE 2016 There are indications that dry condition will persist until April 2016 in most parts of country.

21 Forecast Rainfall Analysis in %N (September-February ) PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) ABRA AKLAN BENGUET ANTIQUE IFUGAO CAPIZ KALINGA GUIMARAS APAYAO ILOILO MOUNTAIN PROVINCE NEGROS ISLAND REGION REGION I NEGROS OCCIDENTAL ILOCOS NORTE NEGROS ORIENTAL ILOCOS SUR REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) LA UNION BOHOL PANGASINAN CEBU REGION II SIQUIJOR BATANES REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) CAGAYAN BILIRAN ISABELA EASTERN SAMAR NUEVA VIZCAYA LEYTE QUIRINO NORTHERN SAMAR REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) BATAAN SOUTHERN LEYTE BULACAN REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) NUEVA ECIJA ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE PAMPANGA ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR TARLAC ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY ZAMBALES REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) AURORA BUKIDNON NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CAMIGUIN METRO MANILA LANAO DEL NORTE REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL BATANGAS MISAMIS ORIENTAL CAVITE REGION XI (DAVAO REGION) LAGUNA CAMPOSTELA VALLEY RIZAL DAVAO QUEZON DAVAO DEL SUR REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO ORIENTAL MARINDUQUE REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) OCCIDENTAL MINDORO SOUTH COTABATO ORIENTAL MINDORO COTABATO ROMBLON SARANGANI PALAWAN SULTAN KUDARAT REGION V (BICOL) REGION XIII- CARAGA ALBAY AGUSAN DEL NORTE CAMARINES NORTE AGUSAN DEL SUR CAMARINES SUR SURIGAO DEL NORTE CATANDUANES SURIGAO DEL SUR MASBATE ARMM SORSOGON BASILAN MAGUINDANAO LANAO DEL SUR SULU

22 Forecast Rainfall Analysis in %N (March-June 2016) PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE PROVINCE MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) ABRA AKLAN BENGUET ANTIQUE IFUGAO CAPIZ KALINGA GUIMARAS APAYAO ILOILO MOUNTAIN PROVINCE NEGROS ISLAND REGION REGION I NEGROS OCCIDENTAL ILOCOS NORTE NEGROS ORIENTAL ILOCOS SUR REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) LA UNION BOHOL PANGASINAN CEBU REGION II SIQUIJOR BATANES REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) CAGAYAN BILIRAN ISABELA EASTERN SAMAR NUEVA VIZCAYA LEYTE QUIRINO NORTHERN SAMAR REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) BATAAN SOUTHERN LEYTE BULACAN REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) NUEVA ECIJA ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE PAMPANGA ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR TARLAC ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY ZAMBALES REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) AURORA BUKIDNON NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CAMIGUIN METRO MANILA LANAO DEL NORTE REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL BATANGAS MISAMIS ORIENTAL CAVITE REGION XI (DAVAO REGION) LAGUNA CAMPOSTELA VALLEY RIZAL DAVAO QUEZON DAVAO DEL SUR REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO ORIENTAL MARINDUQUE REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) OCCIDENTAL MINDORO SOUTH COTABATO ORIENTAL MINDORO COTABATO ROMBLON SARANGANI PALAWAN SULTAN KUDARAT REGION V (BICOL) REGION XIII- CARAGA ALBAY AGUSAN DEL NORTE CAMARINES NORTE AGUSAN DEL SUR CAMARINES SUR SURIGAO DEL NORTE CATANDUANES SURIGAO DEL SUR MASBATE ARMM SORSOGON BASILAN MAGUINDANAO LANAO DEL SUR SULU

23 DRY SPELL & DROUGHT OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016) Updated: Sept. 10, 2015

24 Dry Condition/Dry spell / drought assessment and Outlook Dry condition two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Or two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions. Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from average) or five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall condition.

25 Affected Provinces as of August 31, 2015 PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY CONDITION LUZON (2) VISAYAS (4) MASBATE, SORSOGON LEYTE, N. SAMAR, W. SAMAR, S. LEYTE MINDANAO (19) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCC., COM. VAL., DAVAO OR., S. COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SUR. DEL SUR, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY SPELL LUZON (2) VISAYAS (2) MINDANAO (1) ISABELA, CAMARINES NORTE EASTERN SAMAR SURIGAO DEL NORTE PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DROUGHT LUZON (3) VISAYAS (2) MINDANAO (2) QUIRINO, AURORA, QUEZON BOHOL, SIQUIJOR CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL

26 Provinces that are likely be affected in September 2015 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION LUZON (3) VISAYAS (2) MINDANAO (1) PANGASINAN, TARLAC, CAVITE CAPIZ, CEBU NORTH COTABATO PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL LUZON (2) ISABELA, SORSOGON VISAYAS (5) EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, W. SAMAR, S. LEYTE MINDANAO (12) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCC., COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SUR. DEL SUR, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT LUZON (3) VISAYAS (1) MINDANAO (0) AURORA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE BOHOL NONE

27 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION LUZON (3) VISAYAS (0) MINDANAO (6) OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015 APAYAO, CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE NONE BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, DAVAO DEL SUR, LANAO DEL SUR, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, NORTH COTABATO PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL LUZON (7) VISAYAS (2) MINDANAO (5) ABRA, ALBAY, BATANGAS, KALINGA, MASBATE, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BILIRAN, NEGROS ORIENTAL DAVAO ORIENTAL, LANAO DEL NORTE, SIQUIJOR, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY LUZON (25) VISAYAS (13) MINDANAO (9) PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT AURORA, BATAAN, BULACAN, CAMARINES NORTE CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, CAVITE, ILOCOS SUR ISABELA, LA UNION, LAGUNA, METRO MANILA, NUEVA ECIJA, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN, PAMPANGA, PANGASINAN, QUEZON, RIZAL, ROMBLON, SORSOGON, TARLAC, ZAMBALES AKLAN, ANTIQUE, BOHOL, CAPIZ, CEBU, EASTERN SAMAR, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, LEYTE, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, SARANGANI, SOUTH COTABATO, SULTAN KUDARAT SULU, TAWI-TAWI, ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 58% of the country will likely experience DROUGHT by end of Dec. 2015

28 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT LUZON (34) VISAYAS (16) MINDANAO (15) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI 80% of the country will likely experience DROUGHT by end of Feb. 2016

29 SEVERITY OF DROUGHT* SEVERITY OF DROUGHT September 2015 February 2016 EXTREME DRUGHT SEVERE DROUGHT MODERATE DROUGHT How severe? *Assessment is based on the deviation of forecast dryness or wetness from normal at a given time scale Central Luzon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, MIMAROPA, Panay Island, Negros Occidental, Cebu, Leyte, Zamboanga Provinces, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, parts of Quezon, mainland Cagayan Valley, and mainland ARMM SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS in NCR & Biliran

30 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT LUZON (34) VISAYAS (16) MINDANAO (15) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU, TAWI-TAWI 80% of the country will likely experience DROUGHT by end of Feb. 2016

31 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF MARCH 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION MINDANAO (1) None PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL SURIGAO DEL NORTE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT LUZON (36) VISAYAS (16) MINDANAO (18) ABRA, BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO,ILOCOS NORTE ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO ORIENTAL SOUTH COTABATO, NORTH COTABATO SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR,SULU

32 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF APRIL 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION MINDANAO (5) LUZON (2) COMPOSTELA VALLEY, DAVAO, AGUSAN DEL NORTE AGUSAN DEL SUR, SURIGAO DEL SUR PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL IFUGAO MOUNTAIN PROVINCE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT LUZON (36) VISAYAS (16) ABRA, BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES MASBATE, SORSOGON AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE MINDANAO (17) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO NORTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT SURIGAO DEL NORTE, MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR

33 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF MAY 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION NONE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL NONE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT NONE

34 OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF JUNE 2016 PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION NONE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL NONE PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT NONE

35 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N) way below normal below normal near normal above normal

36 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS SEP 2015-FEB in (mm) and (%N) way below normal below normal near normal above normal

37 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS in millimeter and percent of normal (%N) way below normal below normal near normal above normal

38 TEMPERATURE FORECAST

39 DRY DAYS FORECAST DRY DAY a day with 1 mm or less MONTH ARMM CAR NCR NIR R01 R02 R03 R04-A R04-B R05 R06 R07 R08 R09 R10 R11 R12 R13 SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

40 Tropical Cyclone FORECAST MONTH Forecast September 2 to 4 October 2 or 3 November 1 or 2 December 0 or 1 January 0 or 1 February 0 or 1

41 Average tropical cyclone tracks ( )

42 SUMMARY Consensus ENSO prediction indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the August-October 2015 season in progress, with the event lasting into MAM Significant reduction in rainfall is predicted beginning September 2015 to February 2016 over most parts of the country; Moderate to severe drought conditions will be likely during the forecast period; Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during the forecast period; slightly cooler than average over mountainous Luzon; 5-8 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until Feb. 2016;

43 SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook for September provinces likely to experience dry condition; o 19 provinces likely to experience dry spell; o 4 provinces likely to experience drought

44 SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of Dec o 9 provinces likely to experience dry condition; o 14 provinces likely to experience dry spell; o 47 provinces likely to experience drought

45 SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of forecast period (Feb. 2016) o 1 province likely to experience dry condition; o 6 province likely to experience dry spell; o 65 provinces likely to experience drought, some of which might suffer moderate to severe drought.

46 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the situation and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Use water wisely!

47 The Weather and Climate Authority MARAMING SALAMAT!

48 Date May 1, 2014 November 28, 2014 March 11, 2015 Actions taken for the current El Niño Issuances PAGASA Issued El Niño Watch issued Dry Condition Advisory Press Statement - Weak El Niño in Progress issued El Niño Advisory No. 1 April 07, 2015 issued El Niño Advisory No. 2 May 06, 2015 issued El Niño Advisory No. 3 June 03, 2015 issued El Niño Advisory No. 4 July, issued El Niño Advisory No. 5 August 05, 2015 issued El Niño Advisory No. 6

49 Initiatives of PAGASA on the current El Niño Conduct of Climate Outlook Forum National at the PAGASA Central Office (monthly); Local Fora in partnership with partner NGOs at various areas in the country (approx. 20 local fora) Local Climate Forum for Regional Stakeholders thru PAGASA PRSD (3 fora- Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon and Mindanao) Membership/attendance to Technical Working Group (TWG) meetings; Department of Agriculture (thru PCAF meetings, Agripinoy Quarterly Planning Workshop, ATI Workshops, SWISA (Irrigators), BSWM) TWG for Angat Dam thru the National Water Resources Board (twice monthly) Membership/Meeting with Food Security Committee on Rice thru NEDA Refresher Workshop on Climate Information and Seasonal Forecasting for PAGASA PRSD (Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon and Mindanao)

50 Initiatives of PAGASA on the current El Niño Monthly Assessment of Dry Spell Situation and Outlook at Possible affected areas (whole country, major rice-producing areas and watershed areas) Installed and operationalized 12 AWS In partnership with various NGO and International organizations (i.e., FAO) Dissemination of forecasts and advisories thru quad-media

51 Plans of PAGASA on the current El Niño Continuous monitoring of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) as indication for developing El Nino and refer with other global advisories on El Nino Status Continuous Monthly update of 6-month Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Assessment of Dry Spell Situation and Outlook at Possible affected areas; Issuance of Drought Advisory whenever necessary Continuous dissemination of climate forecast and advisories thru quad-media

52 Plans of PAGASA on the current El Niño Continuous conduct of Climate Outlook Forum Local Fora in partnership with partner NGOs at various areas in the country; Local Climate Forum for Visayas, Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon and NCR Stakeholders; Regular Technical Working Group (TWG) meetings; Department of Agriculture (thru PCAF meetings, Agripinoy Quarterly Planning Workshop) TWG for Angat Dam thru the National Water Resources Board Meeting with Food Security Committee on Rice Matters thru NEDA Refresher Workshop on Climate Information and Seasonal Forecasting for PAGASA PRSD-Visayas, N. Luzon, S. Luzon and NCR

53 RECOMMENDATION Initiate nationwide water conservation; Maintain close coordination with DOST PAGASA and other water-related government agencies; Activate multi-sectoral El Niño mitigating measures; Conduct extensive information and education campaign.

54 Actual Rainfall in mm. & % of Normal for Nov 2014 June 2015

55 Actual Rainfall for July 2015 Normal RR(mm) ( ) Actual Rainfall Observed (mm) % Normal

56 Actual Rainfall for August 2015 Normal RR(mm) ( ) Actual Rainfall Observed (mm) % Normal

57 SOME IMPACTS AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS Soil Moisture Availability, Crop yields, planting dates, pests and diseases HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS Streamflows, Water supply, Water quality, forest resource /watershed management MARINE BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS Fish migration, Fish production, Fish kills, red tide, other impacts on marine life HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS Malnutrition, Hygiene and Sanitation, Drinking water quality, Outbreak of diseases, Excessive heat, Poor air quality

58 Seasonal and 12-monthly (October to September) inflow ( ) in percentile rank at the Angat multi-purpose water reservoir 120 Oct-Mar (NE) Inflow (Percntile Rank) Year 120 Apr-Sep (SW) Inflow (Percntile Rank) Year Oct-Sep (12-month) Inflow (Percntile Rank) Year

59 List of Drought Events in the Philippines ( ) Drought Events Areas affected Drought Events Areas Affected Damages Oct Mar April 1983-Sept Oct Sept April 1987-Sept Oct March 1990 Western and Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Northern Visayas, Bohol and Western Mindanao Moderate to severe drought affected most of Luzon, Negros Occidental and Iloilo Severe drought affected Bicol Region, SouthernNegros, Cebu and Western Mindanao; Severe drought affected mainland of Luzon, Central Visayas and Western Mindanao Drought affected Cagayan Valley, Panay Island,Guimaras, Palawan and Southern Mindanao; Affected rice and corn area totaled 283,562 hectares; major multipurpose water reservoirs reduced inflow 6.4 x 105 mt of rice and corn; insurance claims amounted to P38 M; hydropower generation loss was P316 M Estimated agricultural damages of P47 M Estimated hydro-energy generation loss was P671 M Estimated 5 x 105 mt of rice and corn production losses; hydropower generation loss of P348 M 10% cutback in water production in Metro Manila Severe drought affected Manila, Central and Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; affected agricultural area of 461,800 hectares About 70% of the Philippines experienced severe drought; about 292,000 ha of rice and corn area completely damaged P4.09 Billion agricultural losses; 20% shortfall in Metro Manila water supply 622,106 mt of rice production loss and 565,240 mt of corn amounting to P3 B; water shortages; forest fires and human health impacts