Climate Trends and projected. Climate Change in the Philippines. Observed PAGASA. Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco Assistant Weather Services Chief

Transcription

1 Observed Climate Trends and projected Climate Change in the Philippines Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco Assistant Weather Services Chief Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

2 Outline Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines Climate Projections: SRES and RCP based climate projections Using the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix

3 Distinguishing the difference Weather Is a specific meteorological event or condition that happens over a period of hours or a few days. Climate The average weather conditions over a long period of time (typically 30 years).

4 Weather and climate information being provided by Past Present Future

5 The SW and NE monsoons in the Philippines June-July-August October-November-December

6

7 What is Climate variability? Climate variability refers to shorter term fluctuations in climate such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon.

8 El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño La Niña Source:

9 El Niño affects several regions across the globe

10 Some of the Impacts of El Niño in the Philippines

11 Some of the Impacts of La Niña in the Philippines ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

12 Climate Change? Is that really happening?

13 Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising? 0.85 C (IPCC AR5) Source: IPCC AR5 WG1

14 Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising? Earth s Long Term ( ) Warming Trend (5-year average) Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

15 2016 global mean temperature is a record high

16 August 2017 is the second highest

17 Latest from WMO DOST-

18 What are the Observed Climate Trends in the Philippines?

19 Observed climate trends in the Philippines: Over the past 65 years ( ), a 0.68 C increase in annual mean temperature has been observed 0.99 C annual minimum temperature increase 0.24 C annual maximum temperature increase

20 Wetting/drying tendency of annual total rainfall in the Philippines ( ) Parts of central and northern Luzon Parts of eastern Visayas Northeastern and southwestern sections Mindanao Northern sections of Luzon Parts of western Visayas Central and western sections Mindanao

21 Increasing and decreasing trends in seasonal rainfall ( ) Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Source: IAAS, 2016

22 Increasing number of hot days and decreasing cold nights Hot days Cold Nights Source: Cinco et al. 2014

23 Increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events ( ) Intensity Frequency Source: Cinco et al. 2015

24 Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical Cyclones TCs Source: Cinco et al., 2016

25 Slightly increasing number of intense TCs (maximum sustained winds >170kph)

26

27 Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Metro Manila for the period 1948 to 2016

28 Will those changes continue in the future?

29 Understanding the difference Weather forecast The state of the atmosphere (or the weather situation) at a particular location over a short period of time Climate projection A likelihood of something to happen in climate several decades or centuries in the future Highly dependent on the initial state of the atmosphere and the upper ocean Conditional climate expectations based on scenarios (e.g., increase in green house gases)

30 Understanding how Climate Projections are made

31 Different scenarios SCENARIO SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios RCP Representative Concentration Pathways DESCRIPTION BASES Socio-economic driven scenarios Demography Economic development Regionalization Energy production/use Technology Agriculture Forestry Land use Emission-driven scenarios Describes a wide range of potential futures for the main drivers of climate change greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions & land use RADIATIVE FORCING RCP scenarios are new scenarios that specify concentrations and corresponding emissions, (No fixed sets of assumptions related to population growth, economic development, or technology associated with any RCP) NAMES A1, A2, B1, B2 families RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm -2 )

32 SRES vs RCP Comparison of CO 2 concentrations from SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) RCP 8.5 RCP 6 Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m² in Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 RCP 4.5 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 RCP 2.6 Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m² before 2100 and decline Source: IPCC AR5 WG1

33 Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change* SUMMARY of CHANGES Scenario Mid-21 st century End of the 21 st century A1B +1.4 to to +3.8 RCP to to +2.5 RCP to to C 1.2 C 1.4 C 0.9 C ( ) 2.3 C 2.0 C 1.9 C ( ) ( ) MDGF 12 SEACAM 7 model Report simulations* Report SRES A1B *relative to 1971 to 2000

34 Possible risks associated with warmer temperature

35 Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21 st Century ( ) based on RCP8.5 scenario Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Wettest Possible Median Driest Possible

36 Possible risk associated with increased/enhanced rainfall in the future

37 Possible risk associated with drier condition in the future Source:

38 Projected future change in tropical cyclones to affect the Philippines Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

39 Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones

40 So, what can we do now to make our families, communities, businesses, and our whole locality resilient to climate variability and change?

41 Link of DRR and CCA Climate Change Adaptation: Reduce risk to: Disaster Risk Management Reduce risk to: Gradual changes in climatic parameters Extreme weather event with increased frequency and severity Climate and weather related events Geophysi cal Events Ecological Events Sea Level Rise Changes in mean Temperature Changes in Precipitation patterns Direct connection Hazards that are associated with extreme events Other events (e.g. technological, terrestrial Hazards that are associated with changing climate Normals CCA and DRR: point of conceptual convergence (Source: Gotangco 2012)

42

43 Climate Change Impacts

44

45 Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Eastern Samar by the Mid-21 st Century ( ) based on RCP8.5 scenario Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Wettest Possible Median Driest Possible

46 How to Utilize the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix CLIRAM

47 Climate Risk Analysis Matrix CLIRAM Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21 st Century ( ) for Eastern Samar relative to Season Scenario Range* Projected Change Percent (%) Rainfall amount (mm) Projected Seasonal Rainfall Amount (mm) Information about patterns of Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option September-October- December-January- February (DJF) Observed baseline = 987 mm March-April-May (MAM) Observed baseline = 464 mm June-July-August (JJA) Observed baseline = 560 mm November (SON) Observed baseline = 871 mm Moderate Emission (RCP4.5) High Emission (RCP8.5) Moderate Emission (RCP4.5) High Emission (RCP8.5) Moderate Emission (RCP4.5) High Emission (RCP8.5) Moderate Emission (RCP4.5) High Emission (RCP8.5) Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound Lower Bound Median Upper Bound * upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile

48 In accomplishing the CLIRAM for seasonal values determine the projected patterns of change (Column 7 of Table 1) based on the following (refer to Columns 4 to 6): 1. The lower bound that indicates the lowest possible change; 2. The upper bound that indicates the highest possible change; and 3. The median which represents multi model central estimate the future change.

49 Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo ( Example of a filled-up CLIRAM for Agriculture sectors in Salcedo CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=200 Agriculture Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'change Percent'(%) Rainfall'amoun Potential' Season Scenario Range* Seasonal' Adaptation'Option Impacts (mm) Rainfall'Amou Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm) Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9 Lower(Bound =4.2 = Minimal(to(no(change Same(vulenrability(to((the(present Median Minimal(to(no(change The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(durin (Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( planting(sites Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(inwash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( Moderate( growing(period) Emission( of(45%(.(this(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(so (Pest(&(Disease(Infestation (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresp (Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops (Decrease(in(yield(/production December= January=February (DJF)((((((( (((((((((((((((( Observed( baseline(=((987( mm High(Emission (RCP(8.5) Lower(Bound =7.9 = Minimal(to(no(change Median Minimal(increase Upper(Bound Extend(cover/greenhouse(style(of(planted(cro Plant(water(resistant(varieties,(raise(beds,(tra Provide(good(farm(drainage,(by(construction( irrigation(canals(to(divert(excess(surface(run=of (Practice(cut&carry,(provide(permanent(shelt livestock (Use(flood(tolerant(/(water(resistant( varieties/drought(tolerant(varieties (Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to(make(farme more(resilient(to(climate(adversities Same(vulenrability(to((the(present (Provide(EWS(for(agriculture (Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( (Provide(insurance(to(farmers The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(durinwash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(mo Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(ingrowing(period) of(44%.(this(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(so (Pest(&(Disease(Infestation sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresp (Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops (Decrease(in(yield(/production

50 Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo ( CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=2000((((((((((( Agriculture Season Scenario Range* Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'chang Percent'(%) Rainfall'amoun Potential' Seasonal' Impacts (mm) Rainfall'Amou Adaptation'Option Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm) Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9 Lower(Bound =4.2 = Minimal(to(no(change Median Minimal(to(no(change Same(vulenrability(to((the(presen The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(chang (Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( Extend(cover/greenhouse(sty during(the(northeast((ne)(monsoon(or( wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( Moderate( of(planted(crops growing(period) Emission( Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(45%(.(This( Plant(water(resistant(varietie (Pest(&(Disease(Infestation (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(se (Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( raise(beds,(transfer(planting(si December= of(the(community,(as(this(season(correspcrops Provide(good(farm(drainage,( January=February to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( (Decrease(in(yield(/production construction(of(irrigation(cana (DJF)((((((( divert(excess(surface(run=off (((((((((((((((( (Practice(cut&carry,(provide( Observed( Lower(Bound =7.9 = Minimal(to(no(change Same(vulenrability(to((the(presenpermanent(shelter(to(livestock baseline(=((987( Median Minimal(increase (Use(flood(tolerant(/(water( mm (Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( resistant(varieties/drought( The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(changwash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(mo High(Emission tolerant(varieties during(the(northeast((ne)(monsoon(or( growing(period) (RCP(8.5) (Conduct(Climate(Field(Schoo Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(44%.(This( Upper(Bound (Pest(&(Disease(Infestation make(farmers(more(resilient(to increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(se (Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals climate(adversities of(the(community,(as(this(season(correspcrops (Provide(EWS(for(agriculture to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( (Decrease(in(yield(/production (Provide(insurance(to(farmers March=April=May (MAM)((((((((( (((((((((((((((((((((((((Ob served(baseline(= 464(mm June=July=August (JJA)((((((((((( Observed( baseline(=((560( mm September= October= November((SON) Observed( baseline(=((871( mm Moderate( Emission( (RCP(4.5) High(Emission (RCP(8.5) Moderate( Emission( (RCP(4.5) High(Emission (RCP(8.5) Moderate( Emission( (RCP(4.5) High(Emission (RCP(8.5) *(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentile Lower(Bound =2.6 = Minimal(to(no(change Median Minimal(to(no(change Upper(Bound Minimal(increase Lower(Bound Minimal(to(no(change Median Minimal(to(no(change Upper(Bound Minimal(increase Lower(Bound =6.7 = Minimal(to(no(change Median =1.1 = Minimal(to(no(change Upper(Bound Minimal(to(no(change Lower(Bound =14.0 = Minimal(reduction Median =0.6 = Minimal(to(no(change Upper(Bound Minimal(increase Lower(Bound =20.1 = The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change during(the(transition(period(from(ne(to(s monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(20% Median =16.6 = The(most(likely(future(rainfall(change(du the(transition(period(from(ne(to(sw(mon shows(a(reduction(of(17% Upper(Bound =3.8 = Minimal(to(no(change Lower(Bound =22.0 = The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change during(the(transition(period(from(ne(to(s monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(22% Median =9.3 = Minimal(to(no(change Upper(Bound Minimal(to(no(change Water(is((sufficient(for(farming(activ

51 Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(Agriculture(in(Salcedo CLIRAM:Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Temperature(in(the(Mid\21st((Century((2036\2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971\2000((((((((((( Agriculture Projected'Change Information'about' Change'in' Projected'Seasonal' Potential' Season Scenario Range* patterns'of'change Adaptation'Option Impacts Mean'Temperature' Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 ( )' Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 December\January\ February((DJF)((((((( (((((((((((((((((((( Observed(baseline(=(( 26.1( March\April\May((MAM)((((((((( (((((((((((((((((((((((((Observe d(baseline(=((27.7( June\July\August((JJA)(((((((((((((( Observed(baseline(=(( 28.3( September\October\ November((SON)(((((((((((((((( Observed(baseline(=(( 27.7( Moderate(Emission( (RCP4.5) High(Emission( (RCP8.5) Moderate(Emission( (RCP4.5) High(Emission( (RCP8.5) Moderate(Emission( (RCP4.5) High(Emission( (RCP8.5) Moderate(Emission( (RCP4.5) High(Emission( (RCP8.5) *(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentile Lower(Bound Coldest(season Median (to(27.7 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(28.0 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(29.4 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(29.8 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(30.1 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Hottest(season Median (to(30.5 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(29.5 Upper(Bound Lower(Bound Median (to(29.9 Upper(Bound Generally((all(seasons(becoming(( warmer(,(in(which(air(surface,(soil( and(groundwater(temperatures(will( be(warmer.(the(general(climate( effects(of(having(warmer(oceans(or( lakes(are(included(here. (Increase(in(temperature((ranging( from(1.0(to(2.2(degrees ( (Impotent(livestock/crops ( (Livestock(disease ( (Decrease(in(yield(/production( ( (Ice(Ice(effect ( (Fish(Kill ( (Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to( make(farmers(more(resilient(to( climate(adversities (Provide(EWS(for(agriculture (Provide(insurance(to(farmers (Translating(the(temperature( changes(to(impacts(to(different( crops

52 DAVAO"REGION May"Rainfall"vs"Mangostin y"="$0.7347x"+"

53

54

55 COMPONENTS Component A: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Component B: GHG Inventory and Review of Current Mitigation Actions

56 Key questions and elements for Component A in Step 3 Step 3 Component A: Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment LCCAP Key Questions: 1. Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Opportunities of climate change in communities 2. Types of climate-related and natural hazards 3. Issues that need to be addressed, 4. Location of climate change issues and hazards- current and are projected to happen (illustration/mapping) 5. Summary description on type of climate related hazards and issues will the LGU face in the future? 6. Analysis report on why and when should action be initiated

57 Activity Objectives: To be able to interpret the projected climate changes in the area assigned to you To identify the potential impacts of projected changes and provide possible adaptation options using the CLIRAM for seasonal rainfall and mean temperature Ø Determine the projected patterns of change in seasonal rainfall. Provide your inputs in Column 7 by referring to the information provided in Columns 4 to 6 of the CLIRAM: The lower bound indicates the driest possible change; The upper bound indicates the wettest possible change; and The median represents the multimodel central estimate of future change Ø Identify the sectors affected by the changes, potential impacts of projected changes and adaptation options

58 Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21 st Century ( ) for Metro Manila relative to

59 Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21 st Century ( ) for Metro Manila relative to

60 Pampanga

61 Albay

62 Leyte

63 Misamis Oriental

64 Davao del Norte

65 Acknowledgements Thelma A. Cinco, Emma D. Ares, Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II, John A. Manalo, Wilmer Agustin, Kimberli Anne Aquino Joseph Daron, Richard Jones, Ian Macadam, Florian Gallo, Ron Kahana, Claire Scannell, David Hein, Simon Tucker, Rosanna Amato, and David Corbelli; Jack Katzfey and Dewi Kirono.

66 Thank you! J Contact us: Impact Assessment and Application Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, DOST / Thelma A. Cinco telacebes@yahoo.com