The U.S. Certified Mid Atlantic Regional Metocean Network as a Testbed for GOOS

Transcription

1 The U.S. Certified Mid Atlantic Regional Metocean Network as a Testbed for GOOS Scott Glenn, Josh Kohut, Hugh Roarty, Travis Miles, Joe Brodie, Greg Seroka Oscar Schofield, Grace Saba, Mike Crowley Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA State: NJ-BPU, NJ-DEP Regional: MARACOOS National: IOOS, OOI, IOOC International: IOC, GEO, OceanGliders, Antarctic

2 Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab 25 Years of Continuous Observatory Operations, Data Fusion & Training Center Since October 29, 1992 Satellites CODAR Glider Lab Ocean & Atmospheric Forecasts

3 Mid-Atlantic Bight is Physically Complex Seasonal Cycle Intense Stratification Summer Winter Temperature Difference Mid Atlantic Winter (1-layer) Cold Pool Mid Atlantic Summer (2-layers)

4 Mid-Atlantic Drivers 1/4 of U.S. Population 1/4 of U.S. GDP World s Largest Navy Port Commercial Ports Fishing Fleets Energy - Offshore Wind.. Mid-Atlantic Stressors Warming Oceans Sea Level Rise Land Subsidence Hurricanes & Winter Storms Flooding Extreme and Nuisance Multi-use Waterways, Urbanized Coasts Water quality, Hypoxia, Acidification.

5 MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSOCIATION COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM 10 States - 78 Million People 1000 km Cape to Cape PA NJ DE MD VA NY U.. CT RI MA Cape Cod MARACOOS: An Integrated, Sustained & Certified Real-time Observation and Forecast System NC Cape Hatteras

6 Integration MARACOOS Matrix: Capabilities Integration Support Matrix Multiple Themes Regional Priority Themes Weather Mesonet Regional Observation & Modeling Capabilities HF Radar Network Statistical STPS Satellite Imagery Glider Surveys Dynamical Ocean Forecasts Theme 1. Maritime Commerce & Safety Operational Input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS SST for survivability planning Assimilation dataset for forecast models Surface currents for SAROPS Theme 2. Fisheries Weather forecast ensemble validation Circulation and divergence maps for habitat SST & Color for habitat Subsurface T & S for habitat 3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitat Theme 3. Public Health & Water Quality Winds for transport, river plumes, & upwelling Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Ocean color for river plumes Nearshore dissolved oxygen surveys Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Theme 4. Coastal Flooding Weather forecast ensemble validation Assimilation dataset for forecast models SSTs assimilation into forecast models Assimilation dataset for forecast models Nested forecast ensembles Theme 5. Offshore Energy Historical analysis & wind model validation Historical current analysis & wind model validation Historical analysis surface fronts & plumes for siting Historical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumes Coupled oceanatmosphere models for resource estimates

7 Integration MARACOOS Matrix: Capabilities Integration Support Matrix Multiple Themes Regional Priority Themes Weather Mesonet Regional Observation & Modeling Capabilities HF Radar Network Statistical STPS Satellite Imagery Glider Surveys Dynamical Ocean Forecasts Theme 1. Maritime Commerce & Safety Operational Input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS SST for survivability planning Assimilation dataset for forecast models Surface currents for SAROPS Theme 2. Fisheries Weather forecast ensemble validation Circulation and divergence maps for habitat SST & Color for habitat Subsurface T & S for habitat 3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitat Theme 3. Public Health & Water Quality Winds for transport, river plumes, & upwelling Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Ocean color for river plumes Nearshore dissolved oxygen surveys Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Theme 4. Coastal Flooding Weather forecast ensemble validation Assimilation dataset for forecast models SSTs assimilation into forecast models Assimilation dataset for forecast models Nested forecast ensembles Theme 5. Offshore Energy Historical analysis & wind model validation Historical current analysis & wind model validation Historical analysis surface fronts & plumes for siting Historical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumes Coupled oceanatmosphere models for resource estimates

8 Integration MARACOOS Matrix: Capabilities Integration Support Matrix Multiple Themes Regional Priority Themes Weather Mesonet Regional Observation & Modeling Capabilities HF Radar Network Statistical STPS Satellite Imagery Glider Surveys Dynamical Ocean Forecasts Theme 1. Maritime Commerce & Safety Operational Input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS SST for survivability planning Assimilation dataset for forecast models Surface currents for SAROPS Theme 2. Fisheries Weather forecast ensemble validation Circulation and divergence maps for habitat SST & Color for habitat Subsurface T & S for habitat 3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitat Theme 3. Public Health & Water Quality Winds for transport, river plumes, & upwelling Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Ocean color for river plumes Nearshore dissolved oxygen surveys Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Theme 4. Coastal Flooding Weather forecast ensemble validation Assimilation dataset for forecast models SSTs assimilation into forecast models Assimilation dataset for forecast models Nested forecast ensembles Theme 5. Offshore Energy Historical analysis & wind model validation Historical current analysis & wind model validation Historical analysis surface fronts & plumes for siting Historical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumes Coupled oceanatmosphere models for resource estimates

9 Integration MARACOOS Matrix: Capabilities Integration Support Matrix Multiple Themes Regional Priority Themes Weather Mesonet Regional Observation & Modeling Capabilities HF Radar Network Statistical STPS Satellite Imagery Glider Surveys Dynamical Ocean Forecasts Theme 1. Maritime Commerce & Safety Operational Input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS SST for survivability planning Assimilation dataset for forecast models Surface currents for SAROPS Theme 2. Fisheries Weather forecast ensemble validation Circulation and divergence maps for habitat SST & Color for habitat Subsurface T & S for habitat 3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitat Theme 3. Public Health & Water Quality Winds for transport, river plumes, & upwelling Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Ocean color for river plumes Nearshore dissolved oxygen surveys Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Theme 4. Coastal Flooding Weather forecast ensemble validation Assimilation dataset for forecast models SSTs assimilation into forecast models Assimilation dataset for forecast models Nested forecast ensembles Theme 5. Offshore Energy Historical analysis & wind model validation Historical current analysis & wind model validation Historical analysis surface fronts & plumes for siting Historical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumes Coupled oceanatmosphere models for resource estimates

10 Integration MARACOOS Matrix: Capabilities Integration Support Matrix Multiple Themes Regional Priority Themes Weather Mesonet Regional Observation & Modeling Capabilities HF Radar Network Statistical STPS Satellite Imagery Glider Surveys Dynamical Ocean Forecasts Theme 1. Maritime Commerce & Safety Operational Input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS Operational input to USCG SAROPS SST for survivability planning Assimilation dataset for forecast models Surface currents for SAROPS Theme 2. Fisheries Weather forecast ensemble validation Circulation and divergence maps for habitat SST & Color for habitat Subsurface T & S for habitat 3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitat Theme 3. Public Health & Water Quality Winds for transport, river plumes, & upwelling Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Ocean color for river plumes Nearshore dissolved oxygen surveys Surface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill response Theme 4. Coastal Flooding Weather forecast ensemble validation Assimilation dataset for forecast models SSTs assimilation into forecast models Assimilation dataset for forecast models Nested forecast ensembles Theme 5. Offshore Energy Historical analysis & wind model validation Historical current analysis & wind model validation Historical analysis surface fronts & plumes for siting Historical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumes Coupled oceanatmosphere models for resource estimates

11 Optimizing HF Radar for SAR using USCG Surface Drifters Art Allen U.S. Coast Guard Scott Glenn Rutgers and Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System Based on a Defined Need, a Process for Positive Impact 1. Observations + Scientific Analysis > Understanding (Models) 2. Models + Observations > Forecasts 3. Forecasts + Decision Aids > Actionable Information 4. Actionable Info + Knowledgeable User > Positive Impact

12 Search And Rescue Cases in MARACOOS Region U.S. Coast Guard Search And Rescue Data, FY2014 Bays, Rivers, Near Shore (< 3 NM) Offshore (> 3 NM to 200 NM) Total Cases 2, ,688 Lives Saved Lives Assisted 3, ,651 Lives Lost

13 CODAR Omnidirectional Direction Finding (DF) 13 MHz Combined Transmit and Receive Antenna 4 meters

14 Resilient CODAR Shore Site: Shed, Enclosure, Tx/Rx, Comms, Power, GPS, AIS monitor A.C. unit transmitter computer & external hard drive UPS system receiver Two lines of Communication Shed Lightning Protection Enclosure

15 Surface Current Mapping Capability 25 MHz Radar l: 12 m Ocean l: 6 m Range: >30 km Resolution: 1 km 13 MHz Radar l: 23 m Ocean l: 12 m Range: >80 km Resolution: 3 km 05 MHz Radar l: 60m Ocean l: 30 m Range: >180 km Resolution: 6 km

16 Mid-Atlantic Bight HF Radar Network 1000 km Cape to Cape Mid-Atlantic HF Radar Network 17 Long-Range CODARs 8 Medium-Range CODARs 16 Short-Range CODARs 41 Total CODARs in Region +5 CODARs Roaming 46 Total CODARs Triple Nested, Multi-static, Multi-use Industry Partner: CODAR Ocean Sensors

17 Search And Rescue Data Availability Metrics MARACOOS 17-Site Long Range Network: Consistently exceeds U.S. Coast Guard Metric 80 % spatial coverage 80% of the time Every 6 Months since 2011 Achieved through site resiliency and active spares approach. Accomplished with 2.5 Field Technicians

18 HFR Data Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) Regional Information Coordination Entity - RICE From QARTOD Manual for HF Radar QA/QC of End to End Data Flow

19 19 Operational Use of HF Radar Surface Currents for Search And Rescue Since May 4, 2009 Surface Currents Data Acquisition Data Product Generation & Management Search And Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS)

20 USCG SAROPS Ocean Current Product Requests Rank Product Orders Percent Orders/Week 1 North Atantic HYCOM (NCEP) 22,661 26% Aggregated ADCIRC Global HYCOM (NCEP) 13,494 16% Global HYCOM (NCEP) 8,978 10% 75 4 San Fran Bay tides (ASA) 8,367 10% 70 5 Chesapeake Bay (NOS) 7,538 9% 63 6 Global NCOM (Navy) 6,762 8% 57 7 Aggregated ADCIRC NCOM 5,506 6% 46 8 HF Radar Data and Predictions 4,501 5% 38 9 Global HYCOM (Navy) 2,720 3% Tampa Bay (NOS) 1,699 2% NY HOPS (Stevens Institute) 1,135 1% Delaware Bay (NOS) 1,111 1% 9 13 Mariano - Ship Drift 557 1% 5 14 Aggregated NCOM Tidal 527 1% 4 15 FVCOM Mass Bay (UMass) 498 1% 4 Total 86, % 723 Rank Product Orders Percent Orders/ Week 1 Global HYCOM (Navy) 11,836 35% NAVGEM (Navy) 4,244 13% North Atantic HYCOM (NCEP) 3,826 11% Espresso ROMS 3,425 10% Global HYCOM (NCEP) 3,213 10% HF Radar Data & Predictions 2,541 8% 98 7 Chesapeake Bay (NOS) Currents 1,379 4% 53 8 Mariano - Ship Drift 976 3% 38 9 NY HOPS (Stevens Institute) 514 2% FVCOM Mass Bay (UMass) 427 1% Columbia River Estuary (NOS) Currents 407 1% Global NCOM (Navy) Currents 235 1% 9 13 Tampa Bay (NOS) Currents 190 1% 7 14 ADCIRC - East tides 183 1% 7 15 Delaware Bay (NOS) Currents 182 1% 7 Total 33, % 1,291 Global HYCOM Products Always there metric HF Radar Data & Statistical Predictions #8 Assimilative Regional Espresso ROMS - not on the list Global HYCOM Products Still Always there metric HF Radar Data & Statistical Predictions up to #6 Assimilative Regional Espresso ROMS - up to #4

21 2016 Surface Current Drifter Skill Score Navy HYCOM Region 1 HFR Data No HFR Assimilation National Search and Rescue School Yorktown, VA January 19, 2017 Active Education & Outreach to USCG Users of the HFR Data & Data Assimilative Products Coast Guard Sector NY Staten Island, NY March 21, 2017

22 Nested High Resolution HF Radars in NOAA PORTS 5 MHz- 17 Stations 13 MHz- 7 Stations 25 MHz- 16 Stations Outside- 6 Stations TOTAL 46 Stations Winter Storm Jonas 2016/01/23 20:00 UTC

23 Medium Range HF Radar Network Nearshore Waves New Jersey 13 MHz HFR wave observations combined with colocated Surfcams Gap fills a sparse buoy network in regions of high variability & interest

24 Mid-Atlantic Bight Glider Fleet RU01 RU15 RU29 Satellite Ocean Color G1 G1-Ruggedized G2 Satellite SST Subsurface Glider Data Operated in water depths ranging from 1200 m to as shallow as 5 m Industry Partner: Teledyne Webb Research

25 Gliders are configurable with a wide variety of sensors Acoustic Modem ADCP/DVL Altimeter Bathyphotometer (bioluminescence) Beam Attenuation Meter Echo Sounder Optical Backscatter Optical Attenuation Oxygen Conductivity, Temperature, Depth Fish Tracking Fluorometer Hydrocarbon Hydrophones Nitrates PAR sensor Radiometer Scattering Attenuation Meter Spectrophotometer (red tide) Turbulence Wave Accelerometer Internal Payload Bay External Payload Area Internal External Mounted

26 Rutgers Glider Statistics

27 Glider Data QA/QC Quality Assurance Project Plan: Glider Mission Planning SeaBird CTD Aanderra Optode 3835 Documents for pre- and post- deployment glider, CTD and DO QA QARTOD

28 depth Rutgers ROMS 4DVAR uses all available data from a modern coastal ocean observing system more and diverse data is better (T, S, u, sea level) bias correction to OBC and MDT is essential Useful subsurface skill for real-time applications: 4 days for temperature and salinity; 1-2 days for velocity Future directions: variational methods for observing system design; coupling; ecosystems Data used [ real-time SOURCE] *THREDDS Data Server 72-hour forecast NAM 0Z cycle at 2 am EST [NCEP NOMADS] RU regional CODAR hourly [RU TDS*] RU glider T,S [RU TDS] USGS daily average flow available 11:00 EST [USGS waterdata] AVHRR IR passes 6-8 per day [MARACOOS TDS] REMSS MW-IR blended SST daily average [NASA PO-DAAC] HYCOM NCODA 7-day forecast updated daily [NRL] Jason-2, CryoSat, AltiKa along-track altimeter OGDR [RADS.nl] SOOP XBT/CTD, Argo floats, on GTS [NOAA OSMC ERDDAP] correlation Forward model Forward model after bias removal Data assimilation analysis/hindcast 2-day forecast 4-day forecast Bottom temperature 28

29 Niche model: nonlinear extension of Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation (mechanistic basis in enzyme kinetics) Mechanistic Model v. 3.0 Temperature dependent seasonal migrations spring & fall between under-sampled coastal zone & shelf break habitats Summer + = Winter

30 From the Mid Atlantic Fishery Management Council (MAFMC) draft 2014 Environmental Assessment for the Butterfish and Longfin Squid fishery specifications: The butterfish fishery has mostly been an incidental fishery since is the first year of a small directed fishery, with a landings limit of 3,200 mt. If that limit is caught at 2013 average prices ($1,481 mt), the resulting revenues would be about $4.7 million. Under the proposed 2015 specifications, the average landings limit for would be 21,408 mt. This could potentially translate into $31.7 million additional ex-vessel revenues at 2013 prices. It is not clear that the fishery will actually land such higher amounts or if the price would remain near $1,481/mt at higher landings levels, so the $31.7 million value is likely an upper end possibility.

31 Hurricane Irene August 27-28, 2011 NOAA/NHC: Damage >$16B ( #7) Track Accurate Intensity Over-predicted Two Gliders Deployed

32 WHAT? Satellite SST Pre-Irene Post-Irene Difference 11C max Cooling WHEN? Glider Temperature? Eye Passage WHY? HF Radar Currents

33 Operations to Research (O2R) Demonstrated Integrated Ocean Observatory identifies processes responsible for rapid ahead-ofeye cooling. NOAA OAR Atmospheric model sensitivities identify aheadof-eye cooling as the missing process for rapid deintensification + Seroka et al., Mon. Weather Rev Seroka et al., JGR Miles et al., JGR, 2017

34 R2O - Hurricane Hermine - Glider Fleet Launched, 9/2016 Glider RU30 HYCOM RTOFS Next Step: Data Assimilation

35 R2O - Navy Global HYCOM: Temperature Below Summer Thermocline Operational GOFS 3.0 OpTest of GOFS 3.1 No Cold Pool Well Defined Cold Pool Isopycnal Layers on Shelf Sigma/Z-levels on Shelf

36 Global HF Radar Network Update 400 stations operating in 31 countries with 7 countries sharing surface current data Formed March 13, 2012 in London, UK

37 Global OceanGliders Network Update 8 countries operating in 3 major networks 4 task teams Formed September 27, 2016 in Southampton, UK

38 Challenger Glider Mission Indian Ocean Leg 1: 7,570 km, 330 Days Perth, Australia to Colombo, Sri Lanka with BMKG Academy students Glider RU29 4-day Station Keeping at.., RAMA Mooring

39 Rutgers Masters Degree in Integrated Ocean Observatories Training a new workforce: Capable of working together as a team to operate new observing technologies in frontier areas. Curate the data flow from the sea to the scientist (themselves). Produce products & forecasts with quantifiable uncertainties appropriate to inform decision makers. 15 Month Masters Degree Graduate Program (Lecture and Research Credits) Introduction to Physical Oceanography and Biological Oceanography (From Undergraduate) Software Bootcamp (Analysis Tools, Common File Formats, and QA/QC) Integrated Ocean Observing I & II (Platforms and Sensors) Ocean Observing Field Lab I & II (hands-on opportunities within an operating ocean observatory) Ocean Observing Cyber Lab I & II (data analysis techniques, model operation and validation) Thesis - MTS/IEEE Oceans Manuscript Process

40 The U.S. Certified Mid Atlantic Regional Metocean Network as a Testbed for GOOS Conclusions: Mid-Atlantic has a long history of synergistic ocean observing for science and society (O2R2O cycle) New observing system elements HF Radar and Gliders - are mature, their value has been demonstrated Training programs are expanding Need JCOMM support for the transition to global operations