State of the Climate: Recent Developments

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1 State of the Climate: Recent Developments Deke Arndt Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 1

2 Outline Disclaimers, introductions, and other fun! Climate: it s complicated How do we know the globe is warming? How do we know warming is driven by human activity? What else do we know about the state of today s climate versus the recent past 2

3 Today Focused on the hereand-now of climate, climate variability and clmatechange. No polar bear pics okay, just one 3

Climate Monitoring Branch http://www.ncdc.noaa.

temperatures Interest in climate [and its change] was high CMB provides

4 Climate Monitoring Branch CMB established 1998 During record-breaking global temperatures Interest in climate [and its change] was high CMB provides regular updates of the State of the Climate Mission: to monitor and assess the state of the climate 4

5 In other words 12/18/2012 5

6 And a little bit of this 12/18/2012 6

7 About Me I m a meteorologist by training & education I learned about weather systems, jet streams, storms, tornadoes, etc. Then I got into drought Then I got into local climate Then I got into big-picture climate But my meteorology background is only a tiny part of the climate system, as we re about to see in nasty detail 7

8 Data sources and resources BAMS State of the Climate (annual, peer-reviewed) State of the Climate (monthly, internally reviewed) Climate Monitoring (updated daily-to-monthly-to-annually, depends on what you re after) 12/18/2012 8

9 State of the Climate Annual supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Annual physical of the climate system Click on Key Climate Indicators 9

BAMS SotC Authors & Editors 305 authors from 43 Nations Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt,

10 BAMS SotC Authors & Editors 305 authors from 43 Nations Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Niger, Paraguay, Peru, Russia, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe

11 What is in there? Chapter 2: Global Climate Atmospheric states, composition, terrestrial Chapter 3: Global Ocean Ocean color, currents, ocean salinity, deep-water Chapter 4: The Tropics Hurricanes,, El Nino / La Nina and similar features Chapter 5: The Arctic Glaciers and permafrost and sea ice Chapter 6: Antarctica Ditto, except upside down, and really different Chapter 7: Regional Climates Play-by-play accounts of climate events and trends in specific places 12/18/

1880-2009 Global Temperature 2010 1990s warmest decade at the time.

12 Global Temperature s warmest decade at the time. Every year of 2000s warmer than 1990s average. 1980s warmest decade at the time. Every year of 1990s warmer than 1980s average.

13 Historical Perspective

14 Looking under the hood 14

15 Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface Atmosphere: Upper-Air Atmosphere: Composition Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial Air Temperature Earth Rad n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen Sfc Rad n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water Sulfur Hexafluorides CO 2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance 12/18/

16 Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface Atmosphere: Upper-Air Atmosphere: Composition Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial Air Temperature Earth Rad n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen Sfc Rad n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water Sulfur Hexafluorides CO 2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance

17 Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface Atmosphere: Upper-Air Atmosphere: Composition Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial Air Temperature Earth Rad n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen Sfc Rad n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water Sulfur Hexafluorides CO 2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance 12/18/

18 Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface Atmosphere: Upper-Air Atmosphere: Composition Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial Air Temperature Earth Rad n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen Sfc Rad n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water Sulfur Hexafluorides CO 2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance 12/18/

19 Atmosphere: Surface Air Temperature Precipitation Air Pressure Sfc Rad n Budget Wind Speed & Dir Water Vapor 12/18/

20 Atmosphere: Upper-Air Earth Rad n Budget Temperature Wind Speed & Dir Water Vapor Cloud Properties 12/18/

21 Atmosphere: Composition Carbon Dioxide Methane Ozone Nitrous Oxide CFCs Hydro CFCs Hydrofluorocarbs Sulfur Hexafluorides Perfluorocarbons Aerosol Properties 12/18/

22 Ocean: Surface Temperature Salinity Sea Level Sea State Sea Ice Current Ocean Color CO 2 Partial Pressure 12/18/

23 Terrestrial Soil Moisture Snow Cover Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen Glaciers + Ice Caps River Discharge Water Use Ground Water Lake Levels Albedo Land Cover Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Leaf Area Index Biomass Fire Disturbance 12/18/

24 Multiple Climate Indicators 12/18/

25 11 companion indicators to T sfc Selected 11 indicators that would or would not reflect a warming world Each built on >2 independent data sets In a warming world, based upon simple physical principles we would unambiguously expect the following indicators to increase: land surface air temp, sea-surface temp, marine air temp, sea level, tropospheric temp, ocean heat content and specific humidity. the following indicators to decline: snow cover, sea-ice extent, glacier mass, and stratospheric temp (also influenced by ozone depletion). 25

26 Globally: Temperature over Land 26

27 Globally: Temperature over Oceans 27

28 Global Ocean Heat Content (upper layers) 28

29 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice 29

30 Stratospheric Temperature 12/18/

31 Global-scale evidence: a warming world 31

32 2010 update from State of the Climate Global: Global Analysis (surface temp & precip) Upper Air Snow & Ice Hazards (what happened) El Nino / Southern Oscillation United States: National Overview Drought Hurricanes & Tropical Storms Snow & Ice Tornadoes 12/18/

33 2010: Very Wet Year 12/18/

34 2010: Wettest Year on Record* Based on globallyaveraged GHCN (landbased) precipitation 12/18/

35 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 3 rd smallest annual minimum Last 4 years are 4 smallest Below-average extent for all 12 months Record smallest monthly extent for Jun and Dec (pictured ) Extended growth season Sea ice extent approached the long-term average in late March Short melt season March 31 st spring maximum is latest start to the melt season on record 12/18/

36 Tracking Stuff 12/18/

37 Eras & Epochs vs Episodes & Events There s more to our climate experience than long-term trends We also should monitor those things that directly or more obviously affect us That stuff is often called weather 12/18/

38 Relationship between weather & climate Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976) Weather Climate

39 El Nino / La Nina An oscillation or sloshing phenomenon. Has near-global impacts 12/18/

40 Unusual relationship w/ the Arctic 12/18/

41 Unusual meridional relationships 12/18/

42 Very Negative AO, with: El Nino La Nina 12/18/

43 STATE OF THE CLIMATE: IN THE U.S. 43

44 Annual Average U.S. Temperature Derived from 1,218 USHCN (v2) stations Warming since 1895 happens to be the same rate as the rest of the globe 2010: 53.8F (1.0F above 20 th C. average) 44

45 2010 Average Temperature: Ranks 45

46 2010 Average Precipitation: Ranks 46

47 US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures 47

48 2010 State Monthly Climate Extremes Month Records by State Season Records by State Jan Winter (DJF) Feb 1 st Qtr (JFM) NH VT ME FL MA RI MI Mar MA NJ RI Spring (MAM) MI NJ NY CT RI MA VT NH ME Apr CT IL ME NJ RI 2 nd Qtr (AMJ) LA NC VA MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH ME May LA RI Jan-Jun ME NH RI VT Jun LA NC VA MD DE NJ RI IA MI Summer (JJA) MS AL GA FL TN SC NC VA MD DE NJ RI WI Jul DE RI 3 rd Qtr (JAS) FL MA WI Aug LA FL Warm (Mar-Sep) LA FL SC NC TN KY IN OH VA WV MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH VT ME Sep NM MN Autumn (SON) Oct NV FL 4 th Qtr (OND) NV FL Nov Jul-Dec Dec GA FL NV UT Annual NH RI KEY: WARMEST COOLEST WETTEST DRIEST 48

49 July 23, 2010: Vivian, SD New National Record for: Hailstone diameter: 8.0 Hailstone weight: lb. Image courtesy Aberdeen, SD WFO 49

50 Deke Arndt THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME 50

51 Rank Ten Significant Global Wx/Cx Event Events 1 Euro-Russo-Asian Heat Waves (& accompanying drought) Global Temperature 3 Pakistani Flooding 4 ENSO Transition (huge swing in intra-year measures) 5 Negative AO* (voters only considered Jan/Feb episode) 6 Brazilian Drought (record low streamflow at Rio Negro / Rio Amazon) 7 Historically Inactive Pacific Hurricane Season 7 Record NH Snow retreat (from near-largest in Jan to smallest by May) 9 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 10 Chinese Drought Not considered due to timing: Late year Australian / Worldwide Flooding December AO reprise 51

52 Ten Significant US Climate Events Rank Event 1 Extreme Snow Season / Consecutive Snowstorms ( Snowmaggedon, etc.) 2 May Flooding in Central Tennessee (Nashville) 3 Extremely Warm Summer in Eastern U.S. 3 Midwest U.S. Superstorm Extra-tropical Cyclone 5 Historic Drought in Hawaii 6 No Hurricanes Made U.S. Landfall despite Active Atlantic 7 Near-Eradication of CONUS Drought in Mid-Year 8 National Record Hailstone, Vivian, SD: 8.0 diameter; 1 lb., 15 oz. 9 New England Flooding: Late Winter and Early Spring 10 Upper Midwest Tornadoes Minnesota as #1 Tornado State of 2010 (?) Not considered due to timing: Late year California/Western Flooding December AO reprise 52

53 2010 Global Temps at a Glance Global Temp Anomaly * : +0.62C / +1.12F Tied 2005 for warmest Ocean Temp Anomaly: +0.49C / +0.88F Tied 2005 for 3 rd warmest Land Temp Anomaly: +0.96C / +1.73F Tied 2005 for 2 nd warmest * vs. 20 th Century ( ) average Monthly Temperature Anomalies 12/18/

Climate Data: Fallacy #1 Fallacy: Homogeneity Adjustment inflates global temperature trends Truth: Adjusted trends are as often smaller than raw trends Comparing trends between raw and adjusted data

54 Climate Data: Fallacy #1 Fallacy: Homogeneity Adjustment inflates global temperature trends Truth: Adjusted trends are as often smaller than raw trends Comparing trends between raw and adjusted data shows an even split for the globe as a whole 51%: Increase in trend when adjusted 49%: Decrease in trend when adjusted This and the following two slides were presented by Jay Lawrimore at the AMS Meeting in Atlanta

Climate Data Fallacy #2 Fallacy: The loss of stations in colder climates creates artificial warming Truth: Absolute temperatures are not used to calculate the global temperature Global temperature

55 Climate Data Fallacy #2 Fallacy: The loss of stations in colder climates creates artificial warming Truth: Absolute temperatures are not used to calculate the global temperature Global temperature calculations are made using local temperature anomalies departures from climatological average Anomalies in colder climates are often warmer (larger positive) than in warmer climates; i.e., poleward stations actually show more warming.

56 Climate Data Fallacy #3 Fallacy: Grid box averaging corrupts global average Truth: Provides equal weight to heavily and lightly populated areas Station temperature anomalies are averaged within 5x5 degree areas before the global average is calculated As a result: the global temperature is not disproportionally weighted to heavily populated areas

57 Climate Change Data: Fallacy #4 (NEW!) Fallacy: NOAA has deleted stations since the 1990s Truth: In the late 1990s, NOAA found, rescued and added thousands of stations from the 50s-80s. Greatest coverage during 1960s and 1970s ~ stations are routinely updated. Monthly Updates via Global Telecommunication System Available since 1997 as GHCN Version 2.0

Climate and Weather Extremes What s the Relationship?

Climate and Weather Extremes What s the Relationship? Deke Arndt Climate Monitoring Branch NOAA s National Climatic Data Center If You Can Only Stay One Minute Climate: it s complex it s changing Extreme