SC-WACCM! and! Problems with Specifying the Ozone Hole

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1 SC-WACCM! and! Problems with Specifying the Ozone Hole R. Neely III, K. Smith2, D. Marsh,L. Polvani2 NCAR, 2Columbia Thanks to: Mike Mills, Francis Vitt and Sean Santos

2 Motivation To design a stratosphere-resolving model that can be used for studies of middle atmosphere dynamics without the expense of running interactive chemistry.

3 SC-WACCM Physics Based on CESM(WACCM) Ozone and CO 2 specified from prior fully-interactive WACCM simulations Excludes comprehensive chemistry - solves only for H 2 O, CH 4, N 2 O, CFC- and CFC-2 Radiative transfer: CAM-RT below ~6 km Short-wave heating rates prescribed above >6 km from same fully-interactive simulations Non-LTE cooling calculated from model temperature and prescribed CO 2 >6km No auroral physics Parameterized non-orographic gravity waves as in WACCM TMS turned on

4 ! SC-WACCM Resolution.9 latitude x 2. longitude Same 66 levels as WACCM (fully-resolved stratosphere and mesosphere): model top at.x-6 hpa (~4 km) 8 pressure levels between the surface and hpa are identical to CCSM4 Stratosphere: 7 levels in WACCM between and 3 hpa (versus 8 in CCSM4) 9 levels above km. (a) WACCM/SC WACCM Vertical Resolution 4. (b) CCSM4 Vertical Resolution 4.. NO, atomic oxygen, CO 2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates prescribed Altitude (km) Altitude (km) Levels 26 Levels

5 SC-WACCM Performance SC-WACCM is half the computational cost of WACCM

6 Pre-Industrial WACCM and SC-WACCM Simulations WACCM & SC-WACCM! 2 years, coupled 8 pre-industrial control simulation! daily and monthly output (SC-WACCM available on glade and soon on the ESG)!! CCSM4! years, coupled 8 pre-industrial control simulation with monthly output! 4 years of daily output

7 Zonal Mean Differences in Wind and Temperature DJF JJA ΔT ΔU

8 Surface! 32 DJF$ (a) SAT (DJF) 3 JJA# (b) SAT (JJA) climate SAT (K) WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 SAT (K) 3 2 WACCM SC WACCM CCSM (c) SLP (DJF) (d) SLP (JJA) SLP (hpa) SLP (hpa) (e) PRECIP (DJF) (f) PRECIP (JJA) PRECIP (mm day ) PRECIP (mm day )

9 Problems with Specifying an Ozone Hole GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 3, L786, doi:.29/27gl32698, 28 Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere climate to zonal asymmetry in ozone Julia A. Crook, Nathan P. Gillett, and Sarah P. E. Keeley,2 Received 6 November 27; revised 4 February 28; accepted 27 February 28; published 3 April 28. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L89, doi:.29/29gl37246, 29 Sensitivity of climate to dynamically-consistent zonal asymmetries in ozone N. P. Gillett, J. F. Scinocca, D. A. Plummer, and M. C. Reader Received 9 January 29; revised 7 March 29; accepted 8 April 29; published 22 May 29. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L87, doi:.29/29gl449, 29 Effect of zonal asymmetries in stratospheric ozone on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate trends D. W. Waugh, L. Oman, P. A. Newman, 2 R. S. Stolarski, 2 S. Pawson, 3 J. E. Nielsen, 3 and J. Perlwitz 4 Received 6 August 29; revised 2 August 29; accepted 27 August 29; published 22 September 29.

10 Effect of Specifying ly Mean Ozone a) 3 ly Mean 2. 2 Daily Mean Ozone (ppm). Percent! Difference b) Percent Change (%). 3 2hPa, 9S-7S Mean over yrs Red minus Black Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

11 2 th Century Historical Simulations WACCM: 6 (3 New) members from 9 to 2 (started from differing atmospheric ICs) SC-WACCM: Uses ensemble mean values from prior WACCM runs for prescribed values 2 x9 to 2 ensembles: ) Zonal Mean, ly Mean O 3 2) Zonal Mean, Daily Mean O 3 8 (2 yrs) 8-9 Member ly Mean O3 9-2 Member Each Daily Mean O3 3 Members Each

12 Impact of a ly Mean Specified Ozone Hole Ozone! a) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) c) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) ly b) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) d) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) 3. Daily ΔO 3 (ppb) ΔSWH (K/day) e) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ΔT(K) WACCM minus SC; 9S-7S Mean; Dots Cover Insignificant Areas

13 Impact of a ly Mean Specified Ozone Hole Ozone! Short! Wave! Heating! a) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) c) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) b) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) d) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) e) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ly Daily ΔO 3 (ppb) ΔSWH (K/day) ΔT(K) WACCM minus SC; 9S-7S Mean; Dots Cover Insignificant Areas

14 Impact of a ly Mean Specified Ozone Hole Ozone! Short! Wave! Heating! a) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) c) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) b) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) d) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) e) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ly Daily ΔO 3 (ppb) ΔSWH (K/day) Temperature! ΔT(K) WACCM minus SC; 9S-7S Mean; Dots Cover Insignificant Areas

15 Impact of a ly Mean Specified Ozone Hole Ozone! Short! Wave! Heating! ly a) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) c) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) Daily b) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) d) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) e) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ΔO 3 (ppb) ΔSWH (K/day) Temperature! ΔT(K) WACCM minus SC; 9S-7S Mean; Dots Cover Insignificant Areas

16 Impact of a ly Mean Specified Ozone Hole Ozone! Short! Wave! Heating! ly a) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) c) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) Daily b) Ozone: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) d) SW Heating Rate: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) e) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ΔO 3 (ppb) ΔSWH (K/day) Temperature! ΔT(K) WACCM minus SC; 9S-7S Mean; Dots Cover Insignificant Areas

17 2 Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Changes in the DJF Zonal Mean Winds! (99-2 mean minus mean) WACCM Peak = 3 m/s a) WACCM Pressure (mb) b) SC-WACCM(monthly) SC-ly Peak = m/s Pressure (mb) c) SC-WACCM(daily) SC-Daily Peak = 2 m/s Pressure (mb)

18 2 Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Changes in the DJF Zonal Mean Winds! (99-2 mean minus mean) WACCM Peak = 3 m/s a) WACCM Pressure (mb) b) SC-WACCM(monthly) SC-ly Peak = m/s Pressure (mb) c) SC-WACCM(daily) SC-Daily Peak = 2 m/s Pressure (mb)

19 Impact on Surface Climate Trends a) DJF Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at 867hPa WACCM SC-WACCM(monthly) SC-WACCM(daily) DJF Zonal Mean! Wind at 867hPa Trend (m/s/decade). Climotology (m/s) b) DJF Zonal Mean Precipitation WACCM SC-WACCM(monthly) SC-WACCM(daily) 2 2 DJF Zonal Mean! Precipitation Trend (mm/decade) Climotology (mm)

20 Summary SC-WACCM s climatology in the troposphere and stratosphere are indistinguishable from WACCM. /2 Cost Of WACCM (with Chemistry) Temporal smoothing of the specified ozone forcing file leads to significant changes in southern hemispheric trends from 9 to 2.

21 Back Up Slides and Extra Info

22 SC-WACCM (8) Ozone 9 WACCM Total Column Ozone J F M A M J J A S O N D 2

23 Annual Short-Wave Heating Rate Differences WACCM. (a) WACCM QRS (ANN). (b) QRS (K day ; ANN). (c) QRS (%; ANN) #km#

24 Annual Short-Wave Heating Rate Differences. WACCM (a) WACCM QRS (ANN) WACCM minus SC-WACCM! (b) QRS (K day ; ANN).. (c) QRS (%; ANN)

25 Ozone has a diurnal cycle in WACCM but not SC-WACCM ozone%that% WACCM%sees% ozone%that%% SC/WACCM%sees% Instantaneous)zonal)profile)of)ozone)(ppmv))for)a)day)in)January)at)the)equator,)at)6km,) and)at)2)midnight)e.)solid)in)waccm)ozone)and)dashed)is)schwaccm)ozone)(sassi% and%garcia,%2).)

26 Annual Short-Wave Heating Rate Differences.. WACCM (a) WACCM QRS (ANN) 64.. WACCM minus SC-WACCM! (b) QRS (K day ; ANN) WACCM minus SC-WACCM (%)!.. (c) QRS (%; ANN)

27 Interpolation of monthly QRS onto model time-step causes seasonal biases.. (a) WACCM QRS (DJF) (b) QRS (K day ; DJF)..2.. (c) QRS (%; DJF)

28 Surface! 32 DJF$ (a) SAT (DJF) 3 JJA# (b) SAT (JJA) climate SAT (K) WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 SAT (K) 3 2 WACCM SC WACCM CCSM (c) SLP (DJF) (d) SLP (JJA) SLP (hpa) SLP (hpa) (e) PRECIP (DJF) (f) PRECIP (JJA) PRECIP (mm day ) PRECIP (mm day )

29 Surface Climate 289 (a) Global Mean SAT 29 (b) NH Polar Cap SAT 26 (c) SH Polar Cap SAT SAT (K) Standard Deviation (K) J F M A M J J A S O N D 2.. WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 (d) Standard Deviation of Global Mean SAT WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 SAT (K) Standard Deviation (K) J F M A M J J A S O N D 2.. (e) Standard Deviation of NH Polar Cap SAT SAT (K) Standard Deviation (K) J F M A M J J A S O N D 2.. (f) Standard Deviation of SH Polar Cap SAT J F M A M J J A S O N D igure 2. J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Surface air temperature (SAT) in WACCM, SC-WACCM and CCSM4 as a function f month. (a) Global mean, (b) Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar cap average and (c) Southern

30 Surface Climate Model SAT(K) P (mmday ) SLP(hP a) SIE( 6 km 2 ) Global WACCM (.2) 2.83 (.3).3 (.) SC-WACCM (.2) 2.83 (.3).4 (.) CCSM (.2) 2.93 (.2).2 (.4) 2-9 N WACCM 28. (.3) 2. (.4) 6.9 (.4) 4. (.6) SC-WACCM 28. (.3).99 (.) 6.9 (.4) 4. (.) CCSM4 28. (.3) 2.3 (.4) 4.9 (.) 3.3 (.) 2 S-2 N WACCM (.4) 4. (.8).6 (.4) SC-WACCM (.) 4. (.8).7 (.4) CCSM (.4) 4.2 (.7).9 (.3) 2-9 S WACCM (.2) 2.2 (.4) 6.6 (.4) 6.4 (.9) SC-WACCM (.2) 2.2 (.4) 6. (.4) 6. (.7) CCSM (.2) 2.33 (.4) 6.7 (.4) 2.4 (.) Table. WACCM, SC-WACCM and CCSM4 annual mean surface air temperature (SAT ), precipitation (P ), sea-level pressure (SLP), and sea ice extent (SIE)forpreindustrialconditions. Climatological means are calculated over 2 years for WACCM, 9 years for SC-WACCM and years for CCSM4. The 2 uncertainties in the means are listed in parentheses.

31 Zonal Mean Temperature Comparison. (a) DJF T ZM (WACCM). (b) JJA T ZM (WACCM) (c) DJF T ZM (SC WACCM) (d) JJA T ZM (SC WACCM) (e) DJF T ZM (CCSM4) (f) JJA T ZM (CCSM4)

32 Zonal Mean Wind Comparison. (a) DJF U ZM (WACCM). (b) JJA U ZM (WACCM) (c) DJF U (SC WACCM) ZM (d) JJA U ZM (SC WACCM) (e) DJF U ZM (CCSM4) (f) JJA U ZM (CCSM4)

33 The residual circulation is also well represented in SC-WACCM

34 The residual circulation is well represented in SC-WACCM

35 The tropical water vapor tape recorder Plots&show&the&devia.on&in&water&vapor&mixing&ra.o&(ppmv)&from& the&.me8mean&average&profile&averaged&over& N8 S.&

36 Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency

37 Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency Winter'Frequencies:''' 'WACCM'' '.'SSWs'yr 6' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 'SC6WACCM '.4'SSWs'yr 6 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 'CCSM4 ' '.8'SSWs'yr 6 '

38 Polar vortices U"at"6N,"hPa" U"at"6S,"hPa" NH" SH" RMSE"of"U"at"6N,"hPa" RMSE"of"U"at"6S,"hPa"

39 DJFM Heat Flux and hpa Temperatures Probability Density (a) DJFM hpa Heat Flux WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 Probability Density (b) DJFM hpa Temperature WACCM SC WACCM CCSM Heat Flux (m K s ) Temperature (K).2 (c) DJFM hpa Heat Flux Anomalies.8 (d) DJFM hpa Temperature Anomalies Probability Density Probability Density Heat Flux (m K s ) Temperature (K)

40 NAO WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4 DJFM NAO Index Probability Density NAO Index

41 NINO 3.4 Period (years) 3 2. WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4.4.4 DJF Nino 3.4 Index WACCM SC WACCM CCSM4.3 Power Spectral Density Probability Density Frequency (cyc mo ) Nino 3.4 Index

42 Difference (m/s) Change in Difference (m/s) Change in Difference (m/s) Changes in the Zonal Mean Winds! (99-2 mean minus mean) a) WACCM Pressure (mb) b) SC-WACCM(monthly) Pressure (mb) c) SC-WACCM(daily) Pressure (mb) Difference Change from WACCM

43 Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Difference (m/s) Jet Changes and Temperature a) DJF Zonal Wind: WACCM Pressure (mb) b) DJF Zonal Wind: SC-WACCM(monthly) 7 c) DJF Zonal Wind: SC-WACCM(daily) Pressure (mb) Pressure (mb) d) DJF Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(monthly) f) DJF Temperature: WACCM minus SC-WACCM(daily) ΔT(K) ΔT(K)

Linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude

Linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather patterns Response of the wintertime atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline Gudrun Magnusdottir and Yannick