Global Warming and Climate Change Part I: Ozone Depletion

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1 GCOE-ARS : November 18, 2010 Global Warming and Climate Change Part I: Ozone Depletion YODEN Shigeo Department of Geophysics, Kyoto University 1. Stratospheric Ozone and History of the Earth 2. Observations of Stratospheric Ozone 3. Ozone Hole and Stratospheric Polar Vortex 4. Trends in the Future

2 Solomon et al. (2005)

3 Textbooks Andrews, D.G., J.R. Holton, and C.B. Leovy, 1987: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, Academic Press, 489pp. Brasseur, G.P., J.J. Orlando, and G.S. Tyndall (Eds.), 1999: Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Change, Oxford University Press, 654pp. Wayne, R.P., 2000: Chemistry of Atmospheres (Third Edition), Oxford University Press, 775pp. WMO, 2007: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, WMO Report #50, 572pp.

4 1. Stratospheric O 3 and History of the Earth Solar system bodies with atmospheres the inner planets: Venus, Earth, Mars the outer planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune

5 Solar system bodies with substantial atmospheres Wayne (2000; p.2 data)

6 Evolution of the atmosphere primitive atmosphere: H 2, He out gassing: H 2 O, CO 2, N 2 formation of ocean: H 2 O, dissolving CO 2 evolution of life: photosynthesis O 2

7 Evolution of oxygen, ozone, and life on the Earth ozone O 2 Wayne (2000; p.672)

8 Stratospheric O 3 ozone layer: Max. O 3 at altitude ~ km stratosphere: O 3 heating Chapman theory(1930): pure-oxygen photochemistry

9 Brasseur et al. (1999; p.9)

10 Vertical profile of the temperature Brasseur et al. (1999; p.7)

11 Temperature profile without O 3 layer Shimazaki (1989)

NASA Obsevatorium OZONE Web site UV photo-dissociation O 2 + hv 2O Copyright 1995-1999 TRW

12 NASA Obsevatorium OZONE Web site UV photo-dissociation O 2 + hv 2O Copyright TRW Inc. O + O 2 + M O 3 + M

13 NASA Obsevatorium OZONE Web site UV O 3 + hv O + O 2 photo-dissociation O + O 3 2O 2 Copyright TRW Inc.

14 Vertical profile of ozone number density Chapman theory height (km) observation Ozone number density (cm -3 ) Shimazaki (1989; p.23)

15 2. Observations of Stratospheric O 3 Observational techniques in situ: aircraft, balloons, (ground) remote: ground, aircraft, balloons, satellites satellite obs.: TOMS, LIMS, SAGE, TOMS: Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ozole layer: Max. O 3 at altitude ~ km

16 Q5-1LowRes WMO (2007; Fig. Q5-1)

17 Wayne (2000; p.181)

18 Balloon borne observations for ozone and water vapor in Indonesia

20 Wayne (2000; p.182)

21 NASA TOMS Multimedia Files

22 Andrews, Holton, and Leovy (1987; p.395)

23 Movies of TOMS datasets seasonal variations summer: synoptic scale, small variability winter: planetary scale, large variability hemispheric difference in winter Southern H. Northern H. ozone hole: yes no mixing: isolated polar vortex large mixing spring max: small large its timing: late early (Nov.-Dec.) (Mar.-Apr.)

24 3. Ozone Hole and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Discovery of Ozone Hole ground/balloons obs. Chubachi (1984, 85): Syowa Station (69 S) Farman et al. (1985): Halley Bay (76 S) effects of CLOx and NOx satellite obs. TOMS, BUV

25 Total Ozone at Syowa Station (by Chubachi) before Feb during Feb Mar Total Ozone Month Science in the Antarctica 3. Meteorology [in Japanese] (1988; p.147)

26 Monthly mean total Ozone at Halley Bay Farman, Gardinev, and Shanklin, 1985: Nature, 315(16),

29 Observations of the October average ozone profiles measured at the South Pole and Syowa in different periods (Solomon et al. 2005), including the three-year period when aerosol abundances were enhanced by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

30 Photochemistry related to Ozone Hole CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons): catalytic ozone depletion by CLOx anthropogenic origin of CFCs: Freon (Du Pont), Arcton (ICI), Space Shuttle

31 CFCl 3 + hv CFCl 2 + Cl UV photo-dissociation Cl + O 3 ClO + O 2 ClO + O Cl + O 2 catalytic reaction: O 3 + O 2O 2 Copyright TRW Inc.

32 Q9-1LowRes (tropical and mid-latitude stratosphere) Q9-2LowRes (polar stratos.) WMO (2007; Fig. Q9-1,2)

33 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) August and September in 1987 ER2: flight height ~18km Late August 1987 Ozone Ozone Mid September 1987 Fig Latitude dependence of zone and chlorine monoxide (CIO) on entering the chemically perturbed region: late August 1987 Fig Latitude dependences as for Figure 4.31, but now in mid-september Wayne (1991; 2000; p.244) [Anderson et al., 1989: JGR, 94, ]

34 Micro wave Limb Sounder (MLS) on UARS Waters et al., 1993: Nature, 362,

35 Dynamics related to Ozone Hole in the S.H. cold temperature: polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) strong polar vortex: isolation of the polar air

36 C Zonal mean temperature [K] C W W W JAN. C W Zonal mean zonal wind [m/s] JULY C W E E W W W E W W W W Andrews et al. (1987; P.222~5)

37 Q10-1LowRes WMO(2007; Fig. Q10-1)

38 Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) Q10-2HighRes WMO(2007; Fig. Q10-2)

39 Brasseur et al. (1999; p.504)

40 Wayne (2000; p.252)

41 Our numerical experiments on the polar vortex SH : isolated polar vortex NH : breakdown of the polar vortex more horizontal mixing The SH-NH difference is due to the surface topography: large longitudinal contrasts in NH

42 A numerical experiment on the breakdown of the polar vortex (Juckes and McIntyre, 1987; Nature, 328, )

43 Q13-1LowRes Global total ozone change time variation latitudinal variation WMO(2007; Fig. Q13-1)

44 4. Trends in the Future Stratospheric loading of chlorine and fluorine Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer: agreed in September 1987 into force in January 1989 Past and expected future abundances of atmospheric halogen source gases observational facts

45 Q16-1LowRes WMO(2007; Fig. Q16-1)

46 WMO (2007) Fig. 1-1

47 Fig1-13 WMO (2007) Fig. 1-13

48 Year-to-year variation of ozone hole area ozone minimum mass deficit WMO (2007; Fig. 4-8)

49 Split of ozone hole due to the major stratospheric sudden warming event in 2002 Potential vorticity distribution on 850 K isentropic surface in September 2002 in the SH (Baldwin et al., 2003)

50 Future estimations 2-D chemical transport models 3-D climate-chemistry coupled models Schematic diagram of CCM Fig5-1 WMO (2007; Fig. 5-1)

51 performance of CCMs (hindcast experiments) WMO (2007; Fig. 5-3)

52 future projection experiments impact of climate change on total ozone 60S-90S 60N-60S 90N-60N For each model, i.e., E39C (red lines), ULAQ (black lines), and WACCM (blue lines), the solid curves show results derived from the reference simulations (REF). smoothed with a 13-month running mean. WMO (2007; Fig. 5-25, 26)

53 executive summary ozone-depleting substances, the ozone layer, and UV radiation past, present, and future WMO(2007; Fig. 1)

SCIAMACHY book. Ozone variability and long-term changes Michel Van Roozendael, BIRA-IASB

SCIAMACHY book. Ozone variability and long-term changes Michel Van Roozendael, BIRA-IASB SCIAMACHY book Ozone variability and long-term changes Michel Van Roozendael, BIRA-IASB 1928: start of CFC production 1971: 1 st observation of CFC in the atmosphere (J. Lovelock) 1974: identification