The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Rivers Basin of Korea Using Rainfall Elasticity

Transcription

1 Environ. Eng. Res. 213 Mrh,18(1) : 9-2 Reserh Pper pissn eissn X The Potentil Effets of Climte Chnge on Stremflow in Rivers Bsin of Kore Using Rinfll Elstiity Byung Sik Kim 1, Seung Jin Hong 2, Hyun Dong Lee 3 1 Deprtment of Urn Environmentl Prevention Engineering, Shool of Disster Prevention, Kngwon Ntionl University, Smhek , Kore 2 Deprtment of Civil Engineering, Inh University, Inheon , Kore 3 Constrution Environment Reserh Divison, Kore Institute of Constrution Tehnology, Goyng , Kore Astrt In this pper, the rinfll elstiity of stremflow ws estimte to quntify the effets of limte hnge on 5 river sins. Rinfll elstiity enotes the sensitivity of nnul stremflow for the vritions of potentil nnul rinfll. This is simple, useful metho tht evlutes how the lne of wter yle on river sins hnges ue to long-term limte hnge n offers informtion to mnge wter resoures n environment systems. The elstiity metho ws first use y Shke in 199 n is ommonly use in the Unite Sttes n Austrli. A semi-istriute hyrologil moel (SLURP, semi-istriute ln use-se runoff proesses) ws use to simulte the vritions of re stremflow, n potentil evpotrnspirtion. A nonprmetri metho ws then use to estimte the rinfll elstiity on five river sins of Kore. In ition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Speil Report on Emission Senrios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report ) limte hnge senrio n stohsti ownsling tehnique were use to rete high-resolution wether hnge senrio in river sins, n the effets of limte hnge on the rinfll elstiity of eh sin were then nlyze. Keywors: Climte hnge, Nonprmetri estimtion, Rinfll elstiity 1. Introution In the plnning n mngement of wter resoures, there hve een numerous stuies on the sensitivity of stremflow to limte, in prtiulr, to hnges in rinfll n potentil evpotrnspirtion. Most of the stuies inlue rinfll elstiity. Rinfll elstiity ws first introue y Shke [1] to ssess the effets of limte on stremflow. In most of the previous stuies on rinfll elstiity, hyrologil moels re use to ssess the effets of limte hnge. Where 1) oserve stremflow t were use to lirte the prmeters of the moel; 2) the input rinfll t re moifie to reflet limte hnge; 3) the moel is run using the moifie input t n the lirte prmeter vlues; n 4) the simulte stremflow is ompre ginst the historil stremflow to provie n estimte of the limte hnge impt on stremflow [1-4]. There re not mny previous stuies for rinfll elstiity, ut they n e summrize s follows: Shke [1] propose n elstiity inex to ssess the sensitivity of stremflow s rinfll hnges. The inex vrie epening on the pplie moel, prmeters, or estimtor. Nsh n Gleik [5] use the Ntionl Wether Servie River Forest System (NWSRFS) to evlute rinfll elstiity of the Anims River, triutry of the Coloro River, in the Unite Sttes. In this pper, it is propose tht if nnul rinfll inreses y 1%, nnul stremflow woul inrese y 1.9%. Shke [1] pplie the sme hyrologi moel to the sme sin, however, the result ws ifferent from the proposl s nnul preipittion inrese y 1% while stremflow inrese y 19.7%. In ition, in other stuies using the multivrite regression moel, stremflow inrese y 1.5% [6] n 19.% [7], n the results were ifferent from the result of Shke [1]. Snkrsurmnin et l. [8] propose new inex where the onepts of mein n men vlue re pplie to resolve prolems use y the estimtion of hyrologi moels or prmeters. This inex quntifies the vritions of nnul t on men vlues. It is known to present vlues, whih re oth esy to lulte n relile [9-11]. In this pper, the SLURP moel, semi-istriute hyrologil moel ws use to simulte the vritions of re l rinfll, re stremflow, n potentil evpotrnspirtion. Then, nonprmetri metho ws use to estimte rinfll elstiity on 5 river sins of Kore. In this stuy, using the A2 senrio is regionliztion, emphsis on humn welth Regionl, intensive (lsh of iviliztions). The A2 storyline n senrio fmily esries very heterogeneous worl. The unerlying theme is self-reline n preservtion of lol ientities. Fertility pt- This is n Open Aess rtile istriute uner the terms of the Cretive Commons Attriution Non-Commeril Liense ( org/lienses/y-n/3./) whih permits unrestrite non-ommeril use, istriution, n reproution in ny meium, provie the originl work is properly ite. Reeive Mrh 6, 212 Aepte Jnury 16, 213 Corresponing Author E-mil: hlee@kit.re.kr Tel: Fx: Copyright Koren Soiety of Environmentl Engineers 9

2 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee Prmeter lirtion/verifition Elstiity & sin hrteristi Rinfll & stremflow Fig. 1. Flowhrt of stuy. Dily rinfll Strt Oserve limte t Hyrologil moel Estimtion of rinfll elstiity Moel prmeter estimtion over time (P1t,P11t,αt,βt Rsesonl), t=1,,tyer) Cnonil orreltion nlysis with ensemle memers Cross-vlition on gging (25%) Prmeter onstrint Two stte first Mrkov-hin moel Genertion of ily rinfll simultion Glol limte hnge informtion A2 limte hnge senrio Regionl limte moel Regionl limte hnge informtion Bsin wether hnge informtion Estimtion of impt on stremflow Mpping of elstiity iffereing Bis orretion sheme CC-wether genertor moel Sesonl rinfll mount Lrge sle limte pttern Fig. 2. Flowhrt of the nonsttionry Mrkov hin moel [16, 17]. terns ross regions onverge very slowly, whih results in ontinuously inresing glol popultion. Eonomi evelopment is primrily regionlly oriente n per pit eonomi growth n tehnologil hnge re more frgmente n slower thn in other storylines. In ition, the A2 limte hnge senrio n stohsti ownsling tehnique were use to rete high-resolution wether hnge senrio in river sins, n the effets of limte hnge on the rinfll elstiity of eh sin were then nlyze. Furthermore, rinfll elstiity mp for eh sin ws rete n ompre with tht of the present n the future. Fig. 1 shows the methoology n flowhrt. 2. Mterils n Methos 2.1. The Nonsttionry Mrkov Chin Moels This stuy ws intene to use regionl limte moel (RCM) whih is ynmil-se ownsling moel whih fouses on the SRES A2 limte hnge senrio. Dynmil-se moel outputs typilly ontin some systemti is n require orretion. Quntile mpping is onsiere here for is orretion of the monthly RCM preipittion t, n is se on two umultive istriution funtions (CDF). Eh CDF for oservtion n RCM preipittion is fit with gmm istriution n sves the shpe n sle prmeters. A given monthly RCM preipittion t is then isely orrete y mpping it from the orresponing month RCM CDF to the oserve CDF [12-14]. The hyrologil moel for ssessing the impt of limte hnge on wter resoures usully requires ily hyrologil t. In this regr sttistil ownsling moel utilizing limte hnge senrios s inputs ws employe. Sttistil ownsling moels inherently ount for ises y their empiril nture n n e use to isggregte monthly rinfll into ily sle. Rinfll ourrene n e efine y 2-stte first orer Mrkov hin moel tht uses onitionl proility on the previous y. Two trnsition prmeters (p1 n p11) re use to esrie rinfll ourrene. p1 inites the proility of wet y following ry y, n p11 is the proility of wet y following wet y. Similrly, the mount of rinfll on wet ys is esrie y proility ensity funtions (e.g., gmm istriution n exponentil istriution). In this stuy, the gmm istriution hving two prmeters (sle (α) n shpe (κ) prmeter) ws use for this purpose. To link the set of four prmeters (p1, p11, α, n κ) of the regulr Mrkov hin moel to the limte hnge pttern, regression frmework is use. The stohsti prmeters (p1, p11, α, n κ) re lulte for every month or seson using n oserve ily rinfll series in every yer. Given the onstrute reltionship etween sesonl rinfll n stohsti prmeters, stohsti prmeters re generte with the help of the RCM preipittion, n then ily rinfll sequenes re finlly simulte y using the generte stohsti prmeters for future projetion. A flowhrt for the nonsttionry Mrkov hin moel is isplye in Fig Hyrologil Moel Mny hyrologil moels hve een evelope n pplie for nlysis n evlution of the hyrologi yle. Therefore, strengths n weknesses of eh moel hve to e onsiere to selet the most pproprite moel tht meets purposes for trget sins [15]. To nlyze impts on wter resoures in trget sins onsiering limte hnge, hnges in physil hrteristis suh s evportion, n ln over hnge hve to e ssesse y geogrphil informtion system (GIS) in ition to long-term runoff simultion tking into ount limte hnge senrio. Consiering this, it hs een lrey onfirme y previous stuies tht the PRMS, SLURP, n SWAT moels re pplile to the river sins of Kore [16, 18]. Moels will e esrie riefly. The preipittion-runoff moeling system (PRMS) is eterministi, istriute-prmeter, physil proess se moeling system evelope to evlute the response of vrious 1

3 Domesti Rinfll Elstiity Chgnes Due to Climte Chnge Fig. 3. Five river sins in Kore. omintions of limte n ln use on stremflow n generl wtershe hyrology. Soil & wter ssessment tool (SWAT) is river sin sle moel evelope to quntify the impt of ln mngement prties in lrge, omplex wtershes. It is hyrology moel with the following omponents: wether, surfe runoff, return flow, peroltion, evpotrnspirtion, trnsmission losses, pon n reservoir storge, rop growth n irrigtion, grounwter flow, reh routing, nutrient n pestiie loing, n wter trnsfer. Also, SWAT n e onsiere wtershe hyrologil trnsport moel. Finlly, semiistriute ln use-se runoff proesses (SLURP) is sin moel whih simultes the hyrologil yle from preipittion to runoff inluing the effets of reservoirs, ms, regultors, wter extrtions/iversions n irrigtion shemes. The moel my e use to exmine the effets of propose hnges in wter mngement within sin or to see wht effets externl ftors suh s limte hnge or hnging ln over might hve on vrious wter users. In this pper, the SLURP moel ws selete euse it hs vntges in knowleging hnges in ftors for limte hnge, inluing multiple ms, ln over, n vegettion. The SLURP moel is ily hyrologil moel, n uses physiogrphil prmeters, time-series t, n physil prmeters s input t. For the stremflow simultion of the SLURP moel, the vertil wter lne of eh smll sin lle ggregte simultion re (ASA) is nlyze, n the river hnnel routing of eh ASA is performe to otin the stremflow t the outlet of the sin [18] Nonprmetri Rinfll Elstiity Shke [1] opte the onept of elstiity s shown in Eq. (1) to evlute the sensitivity of stremflow for limte. The metho hs wekness of hving ifferent results epening on pplie moels n prmeters for estimting the stremflow. Snkrsurmnin et l. [8] propose new inex in whih onepts of mein n men vlue re pplie s shown in Eq. (2), n nme it nonprmetri metho. This inex quntifies the vritions of nnul t on men vlues [9-11]. = Q Q QP p P / P = PQ (1) Qt Q P = p mein( ) P t P Q Where, P n Q re the men nnul rinfll n stremflow, respetively. Q t n P t re nnul stremflow n rinfll for t yer. 3. Results n Disussion 3.1. Bsins n Dt Colletion In this pper, 45 meteorologil oservtion sttions on five river sins were selete, n wether t from 1973 to 26 were ollete. Tle 1 illustrtes the urrent sttus of wether oservtions on eh river sin use in this pper n the five river sins re shown in Fig. 3. (2) Tle 1. Meteorologil oservtion sttions on 5 river sins Hn River Nkong River Geum River Yeongsn River Seomjin River Gnghw Sokho Degu Cheongju Gwngju Yimsil Inheon Inje Busn Dejeon Mokpo Nmweon Seoul Chunheon Jinju Chupungryeong Sunheon Suwon Hongheon Yeongju Gunsn Yngpyeong Wonju Mungyeong Jeonju Eheon Jeheon Gumi Boeun Cheongju Gngreung Yeongheon Cheonn Boeun Degwnryeong Geohng Boryeong Mungyeong Teek Hpheon Buyeo Yeongju Bonghw Snheong Geumsn 11

4 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee 3.2. The Impt of Climte Chnge on Annul Rinfll The effet of limte hnge on rinfll in the sins ws nlyze using the A2 limte hnge senrio. The vrition of rinfll in omprison to the present (1973 to 26) ws nlyze. It ws simulte tht rinfll inrese y 7.66% from 27 to 23 (215) ompre to the present, 6.11% from 231 to 26 (245), n 7.18% from 261 to 29 (275) on the sin of Hn River. In ition, nnul men rinfll tene to inrese. The results of the nlysis were s follows in Tle 2 n Fig. 4. 2,5 2, (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 3, 2,5 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) Annul rinfll (mm) 1,5 1, Annul rinfll (mm) 2, 1,5 1, ,5 2, (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 2,5 2, e (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) Annul rinfll (mm) 1,5 1, Annul rinfll (mm) 1,5 1, ,5 2, (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) Annul rinfll (mm) 1,5 1, Fig. 4. Outlook on the vrition of nnul rinfll on eh river sin. () Hn River, () Nkong River, () Geum River, () Seomjin River, (e) Yeongsn River. Tle 2. Men nnul preipittion flutution River sin (mm) (mm) Hn River 1, , , ,429.3 Nkong River 1,29. 1, , ,525.7 Geum River 1, , , ,445.2 Seomjin River 1, , , ,774.1 Yeongsn River 1,33.6 1, , ,

5 Domesti Rinfll Elstiity Chgnes Due to Climte Chnge 3.3. The Impt of Climte Chnge on Annul Stremflow In orer to nlyze the vrition of stremflow on five river sins in Kore, the SLURP moel, semi-istriute hyrologil moel, ws use to ivie the sins of Hn River into 139 ASA smll sins, those of Nkong River into 149, those of Geum River into 63, those of Seomjin River into 25, n those of Yeongsn River into 29. The results of the nlysis were s follows in Tle 3 n Fig. 5. 1,4 1,2 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 1,4 1,2 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) Men flow rte (CMS) 1, Men flow rte (CMS) 1, ,4 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 1,2 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 1,2 1, e Men flow rte (CMS) 1, Men flow rte (CMS) ,2 (1973~26) (27~23) (231~26) (261~29) 1, Men flow rte (CMS) Fig. 5. Outlook on the vriition of nnul stremflow. () Hn River sin, () Nkong River sin, () Geum River sin, () Seomjin River sin, (e) Yeongsn River sin. Tle 3. Men nnul flow flutution River sin (CMS) (CMS) Hn River Nkong River Geum River Seomjin River Yooungsn River CMS: ui meters per seon. 13

6 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee Frequeny 2 1 Frequeny 2 1 Frequeny Elstiity Elstiity Elstiity 1 2 e 6 f Frequeny 5 Frequeny 1 Frequeny Elstiity Elstiity Elstiity Fig. 6. Comprison of rinfll elstiity histogrm. () Hn River, () Nkong River, () Geum River, () Seomjin River, (e) Yeongsn River, (f) five river sins Estimtion of Rinfll Elstiity The men vlue, stnr evition, moe, istriution, n qurtile rnge of rinfll elstiity on five river sins in Kore were estimte (Tle 4). Fig. 6 illustrtes the istriution of elstiity on eh river sin n Fig. 7 illustrtes omprison of oxplot for elstiity. As result of nlyzing orreltions etween nnul men rinfll, potentil evpotrnspirtion, stremflow, n re it turne out tht s rinfll or evpotrnspirtion got higher, the vlue of elstiity n stremflow inrese, n tht of elstiity erese. In ition, it turne out tht re, geomorphi vrile, i not signifintly ffet elstiity. Fig. 8 show tht the elstiity reltive with thment hrteristis suh s rinfll, evpotrnspirtion, strem flow, n re Effets of Climte Chnge on Rinfll Elstiity on Eh Bsin The elstiity of 5 river sins ws gre to ssess the effets of limte hnge on rinfll elstiity on the sins. It is importnt in egring elstiity to evelop methoology tht omprehensively nlyzes the elstiity with ifferent levels epening on sins. As for the methos for gring elstiity, stnriztion n min-mx stnriztion hve een use. However, sine these methos nlyze the hrteristis of existing t y limiting the t to speifi istriution or intervl, they might o mge to the hrteristis of t. In this regr, kernel ensity estimtion ws opte in orer to efine the series of t with proility ensity funtions rnging from to 1 without ssuming proility istriution. Fig. 7. Comprison of oxplot for elstiity Gring using nonprmeti kernel ensity funtions Sine the informtion onerning the istriution of the popultion group, whih is the exmintion ojet, is insuffiient, methos for sttistil resoning y the nlysis of sttistis Tle 4. Comprison of sttistis for rinfll elstiity Bsin Men vlue Mein Stnr evition Moe Distriution Qurtile rnge Rnge Stnr error Hn River Nkong River Geum River Seomjin River Yeongsn River

7 Domesti Rinfll Elstiity Chgnes Due to Climte Chnge Fig. 8. Elstiity versus thment hrteristis. () Rinfll, () evpotrnspirtion, () stremflow, () re. without impossile or urte premises re require. These re lle nonprmetri methos. In tritionl methos for estimting prmetri proility istriution, ojetively seleting one proility istriution funtion is the most iffiult. In ition, sine prmeters for t in short reors n istorte t nnot ensure reliility n severl other uses exist, it is iffiult to estimte prmetri proility istriution from t with ensity funtions of mixe istriution in tritionl methos. Nonprmetri kernel ensity funtion nlysis methos my inue istriution from oservtion t themselves without nee for the premise of istriution, the methos n resolve iffiulties in seleting istriution type, n selet n pproprite istriution type for oservtion t. Thus, nonprmetri nlysis metho tht suggests n pproprite proility vlue onsistently will e effetive for gring elstiity. A r grph is the si onept of the kernel ensity funtion estimtor n is tritionl metho. It is the most ommonly use proility ensity funtion estimtor. Another importnt ftor in the proility ensity funtion metho using r grphs is the setting of lss intervl. Depening on the size of lss intervl, the setting result my vry. While it is esy to unerstn r grphs n to lulte them mnully, r grphs re isontinuous ue to the vritions of lss intervl n the shpe of proility ensity funtions vries epening on the seletion of strt point in lss intervl n grphs. Thus, the r grph metho is very ineffiient in terms of integrte men squre error (IMSE). Although n ielly ientil lss intervl is use, very ifferent results of proility ensity funtions my e otine from the sme t epening on the lotion seletion of strt point. Thus, in orer to resolve the weknesses of r grphs, Rosenltt [19] evelope vrile r grph in whih lss intervl moves n the point of eh tum is lote t the enter of lss intervl. This vrile r grph is known s the urrent kernel ensity funtion metho. Rosenltt [2] evelope kernel ensity funtion estimtor using shift histogrm, whih enles the lotion of the enter of r grph to eh lotion of t retion n the shift of lss intervl. He efine the tul numer s Formul (3): n 1 1 x xi F(x) = K n i= 1 h h (4) In this formul, x i re tul oservtion vlues istriute inepenently n evenly, K (formul) is the kernel funtion, n h is the positive nwith vlue. In this pper, simple rule of thum ws use to estimte the nwith. 1/5 h = 2.78σ n (5) Fig. 9 is the totl of kernel funtions y loting them to the oserve t lotions. The totl is shown in proility ensity funtion. Fig. 9 illustrtes kernel ensity funtion using kernel funtion whose numer of oservtion t is 1 n whose nwith is 1. The forementione kernel ensity funtion estimtor hs onsistent vlue without the vritions of nwith, thus, it is lle the fixe kernel ensity funtion estimtor. The proeures for gring elstiity using kernel ensity funtions re s follows: 15

8 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee 1 Cumultive ensity funtion Elstiity of stremflow Fig. 9. Fixe kernel ensity funtion. Fig. 11. Aumulte kernel ensity funtion using t on five river sins. 1 Clss -5 f NΔx F(x) ΔF(x) Δx X Cumultive ensity funtion Clss -4 Clss -3 Clss -2 Δx Clss Fig. 1. Estimtion of umulte proility se on umulte kernel ensity funtion. X Elstiity of stremflow Fig. 12. Proeures for gring elstiity. First, rete t on the elstiity of eh sin regrless of smll sins from t on the five river sins of the present (1973 to 26). Seonly, pply kernel ensity funtion to the entire t on elstiity, n onvert elstiity into n umulte kernel ensity funtion (Figs. 1 n 11). Thirly, estimte the elstiity for eh smll sin of the five river sins from the umulte kernel ensity funtion estimte from the pst t on the five river sins s shown in Fig. 11, n onvert the result into proility rnging from to 1 (Figs. 12 n 13). Fourthly, the umulte proility of eh smll sin estimte in step 3 is tegorize into five levels. Tht is, tegorize the proility intervl from to 1 into five levels (.2,.2.4,.4.6,.6.8,.8 1.) n ompre them to the umulte proility estimte on eh smll sin. Finlly, gre eh smll sin. Cumultive ensity funtion Elstiity of stremflow Comprison etween urrent elstiity n future one In orer to exmine how elstiity flututes ue to limte hnge senrios in omprison to the present, the urrent elstiity vlue ws ompre to elstiity onsiering the limte hnge in eh zone. Figs sptilly show the gring of elstiity in eh zone using the forementione kernel ensity funtions. It ws onfirme tht rinfll elstiity inrese on ll river sins Fig. 13. Comprison etween urrent kernel ensity funtions for elstiity n future ones. other thn the Hn River. This shows tht the sensitivity of wter irultion ftors on most of the river sins my inrese ue to limte hnge n tht the lne of the wter resoure struture my hnge. 16

9 Domesti Rinfll Elstiity Chgnes Due to Climte Chnge Fig. 14. Elstiity istriution on the sin of Hn River. () Elstiity of eh river sin in the present, () istriution of elstiity in the present (%), () elstiity of eh smll river sin in the future, () istriution of elstiity in the future (%). Fig. 15. Elstiity istriution on the sin of Nkong River. () Elstiity of eh river sin in the present, () istriution of elstiity in the present (%), () elstiity of eh smll river sin in the future, () istriution of elstiity in the future (%). 17

10 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee Fig. 16. Elstiity istriution on the sin of Geum River. () Elstiity of eh river sin in the present, () istriution of elstiity in the present (%), () elstiity of eh smll river sin in the future, () istriution of elstiity in the future (%). Fig. 17. Elstiity istriution on the sin of Seomjin River. () Elstiity of eh river sin in the present, () istriution of elstiity in the present (%), () elstiity of eh smll river sin in the future, () istriution of elstiity in the future (%). 18

11 Domesti Rinfll Elstiity Chgnes Due to Climte Chnge Fig. 18. Elstiity istriution on the sin of Yeongsn River. () Elstiity of eh river sin in the present, () istriution of elstiity in the present (%), () elstiity of eh smll river sin in the future, () istriution of elstiity in the future (%). 4. Conlusions In this pper, semi-istriute hyrologil (SLURP) moel ws use to simulte the vritions of rel rinfll re stremflow, n potentil evpotrnspirtion. A nonprmetri metho ws then use to estimte rinfll elstiity on 5 river sins of Kore. In ition, the A2 limte hnge senrio n stohsti ownsling tehnique were use to rete highresolution wether hnge senrio in river sins, n then the effets of limte hnge on the rinfll elstiity of eh sin were nlyze. The results of this pper re summrize elow. (1) As result of nlyzing the effets of limte hnge on the vrition of nnul preipittion, it ws simulte s follows: the vrition of rinfll in omprison to the present (1973 to 26) were nlyze. It ws simulte tht rinfll inrese y 7.66% from 27 to 23 (215) ompre to the present, 6.11% from 231 to 26 (245), n 7.18% from 261 to 29 (275) on the sin of Hn River. In ition, nnul men rinfll tene to inrese. However, it ws nlyze tht the rnge of rinfll vrition inrese ompre to the present n tht 1, mm or less of nnul rinfll ourre. The nlysis results were s follows: on Nkong River, nnul rinfll woul inrese y 21.14% in 215, 22.62% in 245, n 26.2% in 275. On Geum River, nnul rinfll inrese y 11.94% in 215, 4.1% in 245, n 12.62% in 275. On Seomjin River, nnul rinfll woul inrese y 1.51% in 215, 14.86% in 245, n 25.57% in 275. On Yeongsn River, nnul rinfll woul inrese y 9.82% in 215, woul erese y 6.16% in 245, n woul inrese y 3.8% in 275. On Yeongsn River, nnul rinfll woul erese in 245 only. (2) The results of nlyzing the effets of limte hnge on nnul stremflow re s follows: on the sin of Hn River, flow rte woul inrese y 26.23% in 215 ompre to the present ( ), y 1.3% in 245, n y 8.53% in 275. On the sin of Nkong River, flow rte woul inrese y 5.85% in 215, 4.66% in 245, n 11.4% in 275. On the sin of Geum River, flow rte woul inrese y 3.56% in 215, n woul erese y 17.9% in 245 n 5.63% in 275. On the sin of Seomjin River, flow rte woul inrese y 8.96% in 215, 1.48% in 245, n 34.2% in 275. On the sin of Yeongsn River, flow rte woul inrese y 16.98% in 215, n woul erese y 26.35% in 245 n 3.9% in 275. (3) As result of nlyzing rinfll elstiity on five river sins, the result showe the rnge of.68 to 2.3. As preipittion or evpotrnspirtion got higher, the vlue of oth elstiity n stremflow inrese, n tht of elstiity erese. In ition, it turne out tht re, geomorphi vrile, i not signifintly ffet elstiity. (4) It ws onfirme tht rinfll elstiity inrese on ll river sins other thn Hn River. This emonstrtes tht the sensitivity of wter yle ftors my inrese ue to limte hnge n tht the lne of the wter resoure struture my hnge. 19

12 Byung Sik Kim, Seung Jin Hong, Hyun Dong Lee Referenes 1. Shke JC. From limte to flow. In: Wggoner PE, e. Climte hnge n U.S. wter resoures. New York: John Wiley & Sons In.; 199. p Chiew FH, MMhon TA. Moelling the impts of limte hnge on Austrlin stremflow. Hyrol. Proess. 22;16: MCrthy JJ, Cnzini OF, Lery NA, Dokken DJ, White KS; the Intergovernmentl Pnel on Climte Chnge. Climte hnge 21: impts, pttion n vulnerility. Cmrige, UK: Cmrige University Press; Xu CY. Climte hnge n hyrologi moels: review of existing gps n reent reserh evelopments. Wter Resour. Mng. 1999;13: Nsh LL, Gleik PH. Sensitivity of stremflow in the Coloro sin to limti hnges. J. Hyrol. 1991;125: Revelle RR, Wggoner PE. Effets of ron ioxie-inue limti hnge on wter supplies in the western Unite Sttes. In: Chnging limte: report of the Cron Dioxie Assessment Committee. Wshington: Ntionl Aemy Press; Vogel RM, Wilson I, Dly C. Regionl regression moels of nnul stremflow for the Unite Sttes. J. Irrig. Drin. Eng. 1999;125: Snkrsurmnin A, Vogel RM, Limrunner JF. Climte elstiity of stremflow in the Unite Sttes. Wter Resour. Res. 21;37: Fu G, Chrles SP, Chiew FH. A two-prmeter limte elstiity of stremflow inex to ssess limte hnge effets on nnul stremflow. Wter Resour. Res. 27;43:W Niemnn JD, Elthir EA. Sensitivity of regionl hyrology to limte hnges, with pplition to the Illinois River sin. Wter Resour. Res. 25;41:W Snkrsurmnin A, Vogel RM. Hyrolimtology of the ontinentl Unite Sttes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23;3: Blok PJ, Souz Filho FA, Sun L, Kwon HH. A stremflow foresting frmework using multiple limte n hyrologil moels. J. Am. Wter Resour. Asso. 29;45: Hmlet A, Snover A, Mote P, Slthe E, Lettenmier D. Climte hnge stremflow senrios for wter plnning suties [Internet]. Settle: Climte Impts Group; 212 [ite 213 Fe 28]. Aville from: hwr/senrioplnning.shtml. 14. Woo AW, Murer EP, Kumr A, Lettenmier DP. Long-rnge experimentl hyrologi foresting for the estern Unite Sttes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 22;17: Kite G. Applition of ln lss hyrologil moel to limte hnge. Wter Resour. Res. 1993;29: Kim BS, Kim BK, Kwon HH. Assessment of the impt of limte hnge on the flow regime of the Hn River sin using initors of hyrologi ltertion. Hyrol. Proess. 211;25: Kwon HH, Kim BS. Development of sttistil ownsling moel using nonsttionry Mrkov hin. J. Kore Wter Resour. Asso. 29;42: Kim BS, Kim HS, Seoh BH, Kim NW. Impt of limte hnge on wter resoures in Yongm Dm sin, Kore. Stoh. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 27;21: Kite G. Mnul for the SLURP hyrologil moel, ver Colomo: Interntionl Wter Mngement Institute; Rosenltt M. Remrks on some nonprmetri estimtes of ensity funtion. Ann. Mth. Stt. 1956;27: