Modeling of Catastrophic Failures in Power Systems
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1 Modeling of tstrophi Filures in Power Systems hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Deprtment of Eletril nd omputer Engineering Texs &M hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
2 Motivtion Reent events suh s the Northridge erthquke nd Hurrine Ktrin hve resulted in signifint nd long-lsting dmge of distriution nd trnsmission systems. Modeling nd prediting the performne of these systems in order to prepre for nd reover from suh events is top priority. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
3 Distriution nd Trnsmission Systems Hve eome more omplex nd interdependent, oth in terms of physil omponents nd in terms of mngement tools; re ritilly dependent on the distriution infrstruture, suh s poles nd lines for relile supply of eletri power. lso depend on supporting ommunition systems for ontrol, monitoring, nd mngement of power grids. Deling with filures of multiple network elements in prtiulr re or region due to extreme environmentl onditions hs so fr reeived little ttention. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
4 Our gol Develop tools for understnding nd improving the reliility nd performne of power systems during tstrophi events suh s hurrines, nd erthqukes; This will inlude set of nlytil nd sttistil models for omplex power systems tht will llow: Proilisti predition of the performne of power systems during signifint or mssive outges due to nturl tstrophes; Effiient llotion of ritil resoures suh s k-up lines or genertion for improving survivility nd resiliene to mssive filures nd outges; Fst reovery nd system restortion fter tstrophes. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
5 Impt of nturl dissters Studies of power outges during hurrines hve found tht most power outges during hurrines re due to Physil dmge to poles nd lines in the distriution system due to trees flling on lines, Wind-orn deris dmging poles nd lines, Flooding of distriution filities. Due to the nture of the dmge, power outges during hurrines tend to e geogrphilly uneven outside of the re of highest winds. P.J. Vikery, L.. Twisdle, P. Montpellier, nd.. Stekley. Hurrine vulnerility nd risk nlysis of the VINLE trnsmission nd distriution system. Tehnil report, 996. R.. Dvidson, Liu H., I.K. Srpong, P. Sprks, nd D.V. Rosowsky. Eletri Power Distriution System Performne in rolin Hurrines. Nturl Hzrds Review, 4():36-45, 003. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
6 Modeling system reliility SIDI (System-verge Interruption Durtion Index) SIFI (System-verge Interruption Frequeny Index) hs een dpted s mesure of system reliility fter dverse events suh s lrge storm Disdvntge: if we verge over the whole yer, the filure proilities my e diluted euse of the low proility of ourrene of tstrophi events. Gol: Develop onditionl indies, i.e., the proilities nd extent of dmge given tht n event hs ourred. Sttistil methods n e used to estimte the risk of outges over time or in different ples. This pproh diretly estimtes the quntity of interest, suh s the numer of outges in different feeders or different geogrphil res. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
7 Ojetive Developing multi-sle hurrine system dmge modeling frmework. First, develop the struturl reliility model for estimting the proility of min filure modes of poles nd lines during hurines Then, the mrginl proility of individul trees eing lown over will e estimted s funtion of hurrine wind speed nd tree height Then, the onditionl proilities of impted power poles reking nd impted line eing pulled off poles will e estimted sed on the design strength of poles nd the estimted hrteristis of the tree impts This omined model will yield detiled estimtes of the numer of poles roken or down nd the numer of spns of distriution line down for n urn re. This will enle to forest outge risk nd dmge from pprohing hurrine hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
8 Sttistil Model Hurrine Simultion Mx. gust wind speeds Durtion of strong wind Lnd over/lnd use Sttistil Model Outge nd Dmge Risk Estimtes!! Mx. Gust Wind Speed!! Durtion of Strong Wind Frtionl soil moisture Men nnul preipittion Stndrdized preipittion index Numer of trnsformers Numer of swithes Numer of poles Miles of overhed line hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
9 Ojetive Developing n nlytil pproh. Gol: need to ount for dependenies due to mssive filures nd limittion of resoures for repir nd restortion. We will uild on the previous work on Mrkov ut Set pprohes. omintion of Mrkov s method nd minimum ut Set methods Explore oth sequentil simultion nd smpling of sttes We onjeture tht sequentil pproh my e more pproprite s the smpling gin is hrder to pply when dependenies re involved. Employ ggregte response pproh sed on GMDH method. hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
10 Test systems Disrete, Ts = 5e-005 s. powergui Gen I I Min Trnsformer Fdr Min Trnsformer Fdr I Res_Fdr signl rms RMS V I Three -Phse V-I Mesurement Susttionreker <= 55 ompre To onstnt I rms Setionlizer _ [Setionlizer (:,) Setionlizer (:,)] lok V om Min reker _Fdr rkst ommeril _Fdr Time Res3_Fdr Three -Phse PI Setion Line Setionlizer 7 _ om Res4_Fdr Res _Fdr Res 5_Fdr om Setionlizer 8_ Setionlizer _ WWTP _Fdr [Setionlizer (:,) Setionlizer (:,3)] Setionlizer 6_ om Fdr _ Setionlizer 3_ om Setionlizer _ WPS _Fdr om om om om Setionlizer 4_ Setionlizer 5_ hurh Fdr _ hurh Res4_Fdr hurh Setionlizer 9_ Setionlizer 0 _ Fdr _3 om Setionlizer _ om Min reker _ Fdr hurh _Fdr NOsw_Fdr /Fdr NO_Fdr _Fdr om Fdr _6 om Setionlizer 3 _ Setionlizer 5 _ Res7_Fdr Fdr _ om om om _Res Setionlizer 5_ Setionlizer 7_ Fdr Res 3 _Res4 Setionlizer 8_ Setionlizer 6_ om Setionlizer 9_ om Setionlizer _ Setionlizer 4_ Setionlizer _ Setionlizer 3_ Res _Fdr Res3_Fdr Res4 _Fdr NO_ NO_ NO_ NO_ NO_ NO_ ommeril _Fdr Res4 _ Fdr Fdr _3 Res_Fdr Res8_ Fdr Setionlizer 4 Res8 Res3 _Fdr om NO_Fdr om Setionlizer _ NO_Fdr Setionlizer _ Setionlizer 0 _ om om om _Res4 Setionlizer 3 Res3 Res6 _Fdr _Res6 Setionlizer _ Setionlizer 6 Res _Res7 _Res8 _Res 9 Fdr _4 _Res0 _Res Fdr _5 Setionlizer 0 _ Setionlizer _ Res _Fdr Res7 _ Fdr Setionlizer 4 _ Res 8 _Fdr Setionlizer 7 _ Setionlizer 9 _ Setionlizer 5 _ Res9_ Fdr Res5 _Fdr Setionlizer 8 _ Res_ Fdr Res0 _Fdr Use virtul ities Miropolis (pop. 5,000) nd Mesopolis (pop 50,000) onsists of numer of Geogrphi Informtion System (GIS) overlys tht represent the ity (i) relisti rod network; (ii) individul houses nd ommeril uildings with ssigned uses nd oupnies; hek TFMR vlue (Should e 37.5 for 4 homes X 7kW = 8 kw) Student Version of MTL hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
11 Mesopolis Mesopolis model Hurrine wind fields re simulted sed on pressure trnsets of pst storms mesured y ir Fore Hurrine Hunter hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
12 Potentil enefits Improving system reliility One the system is nlyzed, we n develop strtegies for improving its reliility. For exmple, for hurrines the key ftor is the tree-trimming pln of the utility ompny. Identify the omponents or susystems whose improvement will led to highest enefit to reliility improvement. Develop strtegies for rew deployment for restortion nd repirs hnn Singh nd lex Sprintson Modeling of tstrophi Filures
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