Cosmic Ray Anomalies from the MSSM?

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1 Cosmic Ray Anomalies from the MSSM? Randy Cotta (Stanford/SLAC) In collaboration with: J.A. Conley (Bonn) J.S. Gainer (ANL/NU) J.L. Hewett (SLAC) T.G. Rizzo (SLAC) Based on:

2 Positron Fraction: e + / (e - + e + ) p / p The Astrophysical Theory Curve PAMELA PAMELA Anomalous Cosmic Ray Data? Measurements deviate from expected curves Excess CR antimatter could be a signal of DM annihilation E 3 * (e - + e + ) (GeV 2 m -2 s -1 sr -1 ) FERMI-LAT

3 Are We Seeing MSSM WIMPs? The Lore: No. i) Need: <σv> cm 3 s -1, MSSM: <σv> ~ cm 3 s -1 => Boost: B*<σv> ii) Need: DM DM (lepton) - (lepton) + DM DM quark quark Studied MSSM models not especially leptophilic. But: BUT: MSSM== msugra!! Also: Discovering DM Indirectly is very hard. LOTS of uncertainty unrelated to the particle model: Halo?????? particle????????????? astrophysics msugra: see e.g. Barger etal. ( )

4 # Models MLSP M_χi (GeV) <σv> (10-26 cm3s-1) SUSY Without Prejudice C.F. Berger, J.S. Gainer, J.L. Hewett, T.G. Rizzo (Re. Also: My Phuong Le s Talk) General Models Ωh2 Ωh2 LSP >= 0.1 (Ωh2 LSP ~ Ωh2 WMAP ) Ωh2 LSP <σv>*(ρ2/ρo2) (10-26cm3s-1) # Models LSP > 0.1 Models LSP Mass (GeV) Thermal Rescaling: ρ2=ρo2*(ωh2 LSP /Ωh2WMAP)2 ρo ~ 0.3GeV/cm3 LSP Mass (GeV)

5 Diverse Annihilation Phenomenology ~1.4M Annihilation cross sections from DarkSUSY <σv>*(ρ 2 /ρ o 2 )*BRi (cm 3 s -1 ) General Models Ωh 2 LSP >0.1 Models Annihilation Channel

6 Diverse Annihilation Phenomenology ~1.4M Annihilation cross sections from DarkSUSY <σv>*(ρ 2 /ρ o 2 )*BRi (cm 3 s -1 ) General Models Ωh 2 LSP >0.1 Models pmssm Model #11417 Annihilation Channel

7 Diverse Annihilation Phenomenology Studies often take: Br(χχ --> bb) ~ 80% Br(χχ --> τ + τ - ) ~ 20% Leptophilia? <σv> τ+τ- /<σv> bbbar 80%/20% General Models Ωh 2 LSP >0.1 Models <σv> τ+τ- *(ρ 2 /ρ o2 ) cm 3 s -1

8 Dealing with The Astrophysical Background Astrophysical background models have been VERY uncertain until VERY recently. E 3 * (e - + e + ) (GeV 2 m -2 s -1 sr -1 )!!! Grasso et al. (FERMI) ( ) With anomalies in the data we want to make sure we re not tuning background models to fit BG+Signal!! Positron Fraction: e + / (e - + e + ) Grasso et al. (FERMI) ( )!!!

9 Designing Astro-Models GALPROP/DarkSUSY, Scan+Constraints just like pmssm, but NOT without prejudice, we look for pars. that are better for SUSY. Par. Type Par. Names Constrained By Also Note First Proton Source N n, γ n Proton Abs. Flux (AMS01,ATIC,BESS, CAPRICE) Diffusion z h, D 0xx, δ, V A, V c B/C (HEAO-3, ATIC, CREAM) Electron Source N e, γ e e+/(e + +e - ), (e + +e - ) B-Field N B e+/(e + +e - ), (e + +e - ) Diffuse γ s ISRF (u FIR +u optical ), e+/(e + +e - ), (e + +e - ) u optical /u FIR Diffuse γ s These are fixed at the beginning and never floated thereafter z h and D 0xx are degenerate, we scan z h. Radio clocks: z h >~2Kpc. δ expected in ~ Here δ=0.33 N B ~ few µg (u FIR,u optical ) ~ default, Scan similar to Blandford etal. ( ) e+/(e + +e - ), (e + +e - ), pbar/p, fit above 10GeV Last

10 Our Astro-Background Scan (NO SUSY added) Antiproton/Proton Flux Ratio Boron/Carbon CR Flux Ratio Energy (GeV) ASTRO-ONLY E 3 * (e - + e + ) (GeV 2 m -2 s -1 sr -1 ) E 2 *(Flux) (MeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) Our Models (qty. 524) ASTRO-ONLY Energy (GeV) Diffuse Midlat. Gammas (10 o < b <20 o, 0 o <b<360 o ) Benchmark Model 1 Grasso et al. (FERMI, ) ASTRO-ONLY Energy (MeV)

11 Our Astro-Background Scan (NO SUSY added) Antiproton/Proton Flux Ratio Boron/Carbon CR Flux Ratio Positron Fraction: e + / (e - + e + ) Energy (GeV) Energy (GeV) ASTRO-ONLY ASTRO-ONLY E 3 * (e - + e + ) (GeV 2 m -2 s -1 sr -1 ) Our Models (qty. 524) E 2 *(Flux) (MeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) Energy (GeV) Our Models (qty. 524) ASTRO-ONLY Energy (GeV) Diffuse Midlat. Gammas (10 o < b <20 o, 0 o <b<360 o ) Benchmark Model 1 Grasso et al. (FERMI, ) Benchmark Model 1 Grasso et al. (FERMI, ) ASTRO-ONLY Energy (MeV)

12 Global Fit (Astro)X(SUSY) The SUSY-Added fits do significantly better than the ASTRO-ONLY fits. Most cases: a significantly better fit to the PAMELA positron fraction data χ 2 (posi. frac.) / χ2 (tot.) ASTRO+SUSY fits All Astro Models and all SUSY Models ASTRO-ONLY fits Global Fit χ 2 /dof (dof=36) Benchmark Model 1 and Our SUSY Model Set BEST FITS: χ 2 /dof = 1.54 With boosts in: B ~ Best Fit Boost Factor B<500, χ 2 /dof <2.0 Global Fit χ 2 /dof (dof=36)

13 TEN Best SUSY Models 1) annihilate dominantly to τ + τ - 2) Most important to have a light stau. <σv> τ+τ- /<σv> bbbar 3) (Ωh 2 LSP ~ Ωh2 WMAP ), some co-annihilation 4) LSP is a (mostly bino) bino-higgsino admixture <σv> τ+τ- *(ρ 2 /ρ o2 )cm 3 s -1 5) Rest of spectrum => Leptophilic.

14 Best-Fit CR Spectra for My Favorite SUSY Model e+/(e + +e - ) (e + +e - ) B=156 B=156 Diffuse Midlat. Gammas (10 o < b <20 o, 0 o <b<360 o ) E 2 *(Flux) (MeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) B=156 pbar/p B=156

15 Best-Fit CR Spectra for My Favorite SUSY Model e+/(e + +e - ) B=156 (e + +e - ) B=156 E 2 *(Flux) (MeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) For Much More: Diffuse Midlat. Gammas (10 o < b <20 o, 0 o <b<360 o ) pbar/p B=156 B=156

16 Backup Slides

17 So how do we choose δ e +/- are not as simple as stable nuclei but 1D result gives rough idea: diffusion convection reacceleration energy losses decay fragm. Many more e - than e + Background Positron Fraction: e+/(e + +e - ) ~ e+/e - ~ 2 ary /1 ary ~ E γ e γ n - δ Signal Positrons (SUSY): e + SUSY ~ E - γ s - δ Small δ is desirable for SUSY visibility in e+/(e + +e - ) with lower Boosts. We use δ=0.33 δ=0.33 δ=0.40 δ=0.50

18 Is δ=0.33 OK? CR e +/- and CR nuclei probe different regions of the galaxy E>10GeV e +/- are cooled very efficiently by synchrotron, IC and brem. => e +/- come from the local ~ kpc. Nucleonic CRs radiate negligibly => diffuse substantially throughout the galaxy. B/C probes the average condition of a large portion of the galaxy. Very tricky to associate the δ describing B/C with the δ that should be used to propagate local CR e +/- Fraction of Local Signal Dist to Origin (kpc) ~ 0.5Kpc Delahaye etal, Irvine, CA.

19 SUSY ONLY Signals Shown: positron and antiproton fluxes from a single SUSY model for each astro-model used Our Model Propagation E*(Pbar Flux) (m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) Model 1 ( ) Propagation E 2 *(Positron Flux) (GeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) Energy (GeV) Energy (GeV) Green s functions appropriate to each custom astro-model are used to compute the SUSY signals (i.e. GALPROP -> DarkSUSY )

20 We Have More Ways to Fit the Data Scanning over loss parameters widens the basin of fit that one would get by tuning γ e alone A wider variety of astrophysical backgrounds to which we ll add our signal A wider variety of green s functions with which we ll propagate our signal. On to the Results

21 Astro AND SUSY, Gammas Diffuse Midlat. Gammas (10 o < b <20 o, 0 o <b<360 o ) Assuming the SAME B applies diffuse mid-latitude γs SUSY Contribution to diffuse mid-lat. γs: Some tension with FERMI preliminary data E 2 *(Flux) (MeV m -2 sr -1 s -1 ) B=156 But Components from IC, π 0 -decay, Brem., point sources uncertainties in the normalization of each component. Did not use this quantity in the global fit b/c Astro-BGs bad fit to all data sets, new GALPROP default model will fit the FERMI data together, but all models built on the assumption of NO SUSY SIGNAL, all ordinary astrophysics.

22 Astro AND SUSY, Gammas OLD Assuming the SAME B applies to dwarf galaxies Dwarfs: boosted signals near LAT detection, pure τ models are hardest to see. NEW Dwarfs may be the fastest way to obtain believable evidence for these scenarios! Essig etal

23 Direct Detection? Ten best pmssm models span a sizeable range of DD cross sections. Cross sections highlighted here DO NOT include Boosts. Appropriate boost factor depends on the considered origin of the boost

24 Awaiting More Data AMS-02 can measure CR antimatter better than any previous experiment. AMS-02: size, duration and combination of sub-detectors => high acceptance with proton e + /p + ~ Expected Performance (Superconducting)

25 Charge-Sign Dependent Solar Modulation Sign-INdependent solar modulation factors out of the positron fraction. Clem etal. ApJ 464 (1996) Our strategy: avoid data below 10 GeV!! G. Tarle, UCLA DM 2010 Conf., paper to appear

26 3BFSs Channels w/ extra W/Z compete with direct channels as the extra vector lifts the helicity suppression Very interesting! Calculated in a toy model that does a pretty good job reflecting the MSSM result But Bell, etal For our models annihilation to taus will always dominate over annihilation to electrons. The numerator is universal: f(m W /M χ ), denominator is not: ~ (M f /M χ ) 2

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