Global SUSY Fits with IceCube

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1 Global SUSY Fits with IceCube Chris Savage * Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics Stockholm University For the IceCube Collaboration * associate member

2 Overview All processes depend on WIMP mass Silk, Olive & Srednicki (1985), Freese (1986) Sun Neutrinos Annihilation channel (branching ratios) Annihilation Annihilation cross-section Capture (scattering) Scattering cross-sections (SI & SD)

3 Overview IceCube Neutrino Observatory Cerenkov detector at South Pole km 3 of instrumented ice All 86 strings installed (2011) DeepCore Denser instrumentation Improved light collection (better DOMs) Lower energy threshold

4 Overview Neutrino detector analyses (e.g. IceCube) Too many parameters requires assumptions to be made in order to show some results for generic WIMP e.g. SD-only, single annihilation channel ( bb) Typical analyses aim for exclusion based on absence of signal rather than reconstruction of positive signal Supersymmetric (SUSY) dark matter, e.g. the neutralino Above assumptions need not be made (parameters can be calculated) Want analysis framework that can be combined with other results to constrain the SUSY parameter space global SUSY fit Outline IceCube SUSY analysis framework Results: IC-22 (actual), IC-86 (pseudo) Other SUSY dark matter constraints and global fits

5 IceCube SUSY Analysis

6 IceCube Data Neutrino-induced muons Muon event rate: depends on m, SI, SD, < v> Muon energy spectrum: depends on m, BR s Muon incoming direction: neutrinos come from direction of the Sun significant backgrounds Typical analyses: Only hard cuts on muon event energy and angular data Number of events only quantity used in statistical analysis

7 Simple Exclusion Analysis Hamish Silverwood s MSc Thesis SI SD excludable at > 3 CL excludable at > 1 CL not excludable Predicted sensitivity of IceCube-86 (180 days) MSSM-25 model exclusion level using only number of events Based upon a p-value, not likelihood (no parameter estimation) Analogous to existing analyses, but in context of SUSY framework Couplings, < v>, BR s given by models: no assumptions required MSSM-25: MSSM-25: H. H. Silverwood, Silverwood, J. J. Adams, Adams, A.M. A.M. Brown, Brown, P. P. Scott* Scott 2/24/2012 C Savage - UCLA DM Global SUSY fits with * associate IceCube member

8 Likelihood Analysis Likelihood analysis desired Allows for parameter estimation (in event of positive signal) Can use all data, not just number of events i.e. muon energies, incoming angles Allows multiple experimental results to be combined Combined likelihood IceCube neutrino fluxes WMAP relic density Precision EW, b s, g-2 LEP bounds on light SUSY partners ( ) IC( ) WMAP ( ) b s Direct detection, indirect detection, accelerator searches (not now) global SUSY fit M. Danninger, CS*, P. Scott*, J. Edsjö* & K. Hultqvist 2/24/2012 C Savage - UCLA DM Global SUSY * fits associate with IceCube members L tot L L L ( )

9 Likelihood Analysis IceCube likelihood (unbinned) L L n L IC ( ) IC( n s ( ) b) spec( Ek ) ang(cos k ) k 1 L : WIMP or SUSY parameters n: Number of muon events E k : Muon energy cos k : Muon angle from Sun Both signal and background contributions to each piece Corrected for: Finite energy resolution (energy estimated by number of DOM hits) Finite angular resolution Systematic uncertainty in effective area

10 SUSY Scans DarkSUSY + SuperBayeS (MultiNest) DarkSUSY + SuperBayeS (MultiNest) * analysis framework to be included in future DarkSUSY release SUSY models CMSSM, msugra, MSSM-7, -25, BMSSM, analysis framework can be used for non-susy dark matter (e.g. Kaluza-Klein) Statistics Bayesian: marginalized posterior PDF Frequentist: profile likelihood

11 SUSY Scans (Results)

12 Without IceCube Priors Relic density, LEP bounds, No IceCube constraints

13 IC-22 IC-22: real data No detection, but limited sensitivity

14 IC-22 (simulated signal) Inject ~60 signal events from 500 GeV WIMP on ~180 background events Non-zero SI cross-section found!

15 IC-86 Installation recently completed (86 strings) Data cuts, calibrations, etc. not optimized/completed Effective areas not yet determined Projected sensitivity: approximate as 100 effective area of IC-22 Overestimate for high energy s Underestimate for low energy s

16 Without IceCube Priors Relic density, LEP bounds, No IceCube constraints

17 IC-86 (IC-22 results) IC-22 ( 100): real data, but assuming effective area is 100 times larger Order of magnitude approximation to IC-86

18 Non-IceCube Analyses and Global SUSY Fits

19 Direct/Indirect Detection Scattering within detector Depends on WIMP mass and scattering cross-section Annihilation of WIMPs in galactic halos: cosmic rays (, e +, p - ) Depends on WIMP mass, annihilation cross-section, branching ratios 1σ 2σ Direct Detection Akrami, Savage, Scott, Conrad, Edsjö (2011) -rays (Fermi-LAT) Segue 1 analysis Scott et al. (2009) -rays (H.E.S.S.) Galactic center analysis Ripken, Conrad & Scott (2011)

20 Accelerators Neutralino production Depends on neutralino mass, various couplings relativistic: couplings not same as direct/indirect detection ATLAS (CMSSM) SU3 benchmark analysis Bridges et al. (2010) ATLAS/CMS (CMSSM) Current results Buchmueller et al. (2011)

21 Global Fits Combine direct, indirect, accelerator searches Direct Detection vs. -rays MSSM, msugra Bergström, Bringmann & Edsjö (2010) SI cross-section vs. annihilation cross-section See Trotta et al., JHEP 0812:024 (2008)

22 Global Fits Combine direct, indirect, accelerator searches accelerators Direct Detection vs. -rays MSSM, msugra Bergström, Bringmann & Edsjö (2010) SI cross-section vs. neutralino mass See Trotta et al., JHEP 0812:024 (2008)

23 Summary and Remarks Developed a framework to use full eventlevel IceCube data to analyze SUSY models Implemented in DarkSUSY, to be made available in a future release IC-22 analyzed, IC-79 analysis in progress Event data will be released in form suitable for use with DarkSUSY routines Global SUSY fits can make full use of IceCube results

24 Backup Slides

25 Marginalized Posterior PDF (Bayesian) Slides

26 Without IceCube Priors Relic density, LEP bounds, No IceCube constraints

27 IC-22 IC-22: real data No detection, but limited sensitivity

28 IC-22 (simulated signal) Inject ~60 signal events from 500 GeV WIMP on ~180 background events Non-zero SI cross-section found!

29 IC-86 (IC-22 results) IC-22 ( 100): real data, but assuming effective area is 100 times larger Order of magnitude approximation to IC-86

30 Direct/Indirect Detection Scattering within detector Depends on WIMP mass and scattering cross-section Annihilation of WIMPs in galactic halos: cosmic rays (, e +, p - ) Depends on WIMP mass, annihilation cross-section, branching ratios 1σ / 2σ Direct Detection Akrami, Savage, Scott, Conrad, Edsjö (2011) -rays (Fermi-LAT) Segue 1 analysis Scott et al. (2009) -rays (H.E.S.S.) Galactic center analysis Ripken, Conrad & Scott (2011)

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