Land use and landslides in Azad Kashmir and Jammu, Pakistan: A multidisciplinary approach to disaster risk reduction

Transcription

1 Land use and landslides in Azad Kashmir and Jammu, Pakistan: A multidisciplinary approach to disaster risk reduction Sudmeier-Rieux, K., A. Breguet, J. Dubois, M. Jaboyedoff, R. Jaubert, P. Peduzzi, R. Qureshi 31 août Lausanne

2 Outline 1. Earthquake and landslides in Kashmir, Pakistan 2. Study goals 3. Conceptual framework 4. Research questions/ methods 5. Field site 6. Results 7. Conclusions 8. Outcomes 9. Future research directions

3 1. Case study from AJK, Pakistan 8 october, 2005: 7.6 on the Richter scale 76,000 + casualities 3 million homeless + 2,000 landslides Numerous cracks Valleys were blocked Densely populated area 264 persons/km2 Jonas Nessi, UNIL-IGAR, 2007

4 2. Study goals applied research Strengthen decision-making tools for disaster risk reduction (DRR). Identify land use factors and strategies that affect the vulnerability of communities in Neelum Valley. Explore methodologies for a more integrative approach to disaster risk reduction.

5 3. Conceptual framework DRR a function of interrelated socioecological systems. Disasters often rooted in human agency and vulnerability. Effective DRR based on locally adapted methods and risk perceptions. Source: International Human Dimensions Programme, Global Land Project (Hewitt, 1997; Hufschmidt et al., 2005; Birkmann (ed). 2006; Oliver-Smith, 1996; Turner et al. 2003, Crozier, 1986)

6 4. Research questions: a. What type of information is required to improve decisionmaking for reducing risk from landslides? b.which land use factors may have caused slope fragility? c. What are the community land use strategies and perceptions that may contribute, or reduce risk from future landslides? AJK Planning and Development Dept, 2007

7 Land use strategies

8 5. Methods: both quantitative and qualitative Improve decision making tools for DRR: An integrated approach Better long term recovery, prevention and risk communication Hazard assessment: Remote sensing Landslide susceptibility GIS Groundtruthing Landslide profiles Geology, Slope gradients, Vegetation cover, Land use, Land tenure, Economic losses Land use strategies, local risk perceptions Household surveys Focus groups Mapping exercise Stakeholder analysis

9 6. Methods Question # 1 = What data are available?

10 5. Field site: Neelum Valley,AJK NE of Muzaffarbad 381 km2 Altitude: 800-2,600m Murree formation: sandstone/silt/clay Pakistan

11 6. Results: landslide susceptibility Parameters: Variation/ steepness of slopes, vegetation cover, distance from epicentres/fault line, roads, trails, rivers, type of geology. Peduzzi, P.(in prep) UNEP/GRID/EUROPE DEM model, NDVI, regression analysis Results: Statistically significant correlation between vegetation loss, roads, and landslides. (r = 0.74 and 54% of variance explained, p values less than 0.01).

12 6. Results: remote sensing, field study 100 landslides profiled 17 km 2 surface area 84 on right bank Similar geology and slope gradient (50-55 ) Private ownership vs. state regulated Vegetation cover highly degraded on right bank 56% grazing, followed by occurrence of roads 24 rainfall induced slides 21 on right bank

13 6. Results: socio-economic survey 2 villages Concern for future landslides higher than economic concerns. Arable taken out of production out of fear from landslides. Rain and «Allah» caused landslides. Need for information on how to stabilize slopes and cracks. Jonas Nessi, UNIL-IGAR, 2007 Communities with pre-disaster organisations recovered faster. Women higher risk perceptions. Early warning through local mosque.

14 7. Conclusions: Risk in a development context Need for interdisciplinary approaches for effective risk governance and post-disaster resource allocation. Need for participation and locally adapted solutions, building on community organisations and local monitoring. Build on local knowledge and risk perceptions. Limitations and advantages to «quick and dirty»?

15 8. Outcomes: did our stuff get used? GIS training, slope and geological maps provided Field study with local students AJK Forest department initiated slope stabilization training Report widely disseminated among policy makers I was invited to EGU! Biological measures for landslide stabilization, Abdur Rauf Qureshi, IUCN-AJK 2007

16 9. Future research directions Development More research on socio-ecological systems and DRR. Characteristics of a «disaster resilient community»? More integrated approaches to DRR. Ecosystem management Disaster risk management

17 THANK YOU! Suggestions welcome! Thank you project partners: University of Lausanne, Institute of Geomatics and Risk Analysis International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Switzerland IUCN Pakistan UNEP/GRID/EUROPE Institute for Development Studies, Switzerland Photo credits: Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, unless otherwise stated Funding from: Geneva International Academic Network