International Symposium on Natural Disaster Mitigation. Local vulnerability assessment of landslides and debris flows

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1 International Symposium on Natural Disaster Mitigation of landslides and debris flows Lessons learnt from Cam Pha town and Van Don district, Quang Ninh province, Vietnam Nguyen Quoc Phi Faculty of Environment Hanoi University of Mining and Geology

2 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Hazard zonation 3 4 Discussions

3 Introduction 11 dead and missing 16 injured Ban Khoang, Sa Pa, Lao Cai (4/9/2013)

4 Introduction Vu Quang, Ha Tinh (10/2013) Tam Duong, Lai Chau (8/2014) Son La (6/2015) Thanh Hung, Dien Bien (8/2015)

5 Introduction 8/2016

6 Introduction Phin Ngan, Bat Xat, lao Cai (8/2016)

7 Introduction 8/2016

8 Introduction 3/2017

9 Introduction

10 Introduction - Human loss: 3 dead, 7 missing, 1 injured - Houses: 20 collapsed/swept, >200 damaged - Rice field: > ha were flooded, deep in the water - Transportation was blocked, electricity system were off and damaged

11 Introduction The primary sources for geological hazard database were obtained mainly from news media, research reports, scientific papers, etc.

12 Introduction

13 Introduction

14 Introduction Ban Sen, Van Don, Quang Ninh (8/2015)

15 Introduction Mong Duong, Cam Pha, Quang Ninh (8/2015)

16 Introduction Ban Sen, Van Don 8 months later (4/2016)

17 Introduction Mong Duong, Cam Pha, 8 months later (4/2016)

18 Content 1 Introduction 2 Hazard zonation 3 4 Discussions

19 Landslide and debris flow zonation Inventory mapping Preparatory factors Triggering factors Susceptibility assessment Frequency analysis Runout analysis Hazard assessment Vulnerability analysis Exposure analysis Risk assessment Flow diagram

20 Landslide and debris flow zonation Modified Flash Flood Potential Index (Smith, 2003) Slope angle Rainfall Soil type Vegetation cover Watershed Flash flood

21 Landslide and debris flow zonation Vegetation cover (NDVI) Slope angle Rainfall

22 Landslide and debris flow zonation Annual rainfall: mm Rainy season: From May to Sep. (75% of total amount)

23 Landslide and debris flow zonation 75% Annual rainfall: mm Rainy season: From May to Sep. (75% of total amount)

24 Landslide and debris flow zonation Flash Flood Potential Index Method Equation References 1 Greg Smith (2003) 2 James Brewster (2009) 3 Raymond Kruzdlo and Joseph Cure (2010) 4 Joseph Cure (2012)

25 Landslide and debris flow zonation

26 Landslide and debris flow zonation A network in the form 7x4x1 nodes. Input layer with 7 input components. Output layer with 1 layer of landslide susceptibility (0/1). No. of hidden layer = (No. of input layer + no. of output layer)/2 Use sigmoid activation function and 10-fold scheme for network generation Lithology Lineament density Elevation Landslide susceptibility Slope NDVI Land use Drainage network

27 Content 1 Introduction 2 Hazard zonation 3 4 Discussions

28 Hotspots Areas with high potential of hazard and high density of elements at risk: Population; Infrastructure; Road networks; Economic activities; Van Don county: 7 locations Cam Pha city: 4 locations

29 Inventory mapping Preparatory factors Triggering factors Susceptibility assessment Frequency analysis Runout analysis Hazard assessment Vulnerability analysis Exposure analysis Risk assessment Flow diagram

30 Risk R = f (H, V) Hazard Risk Vulnerability

31 Model Authors Applications DAN Oldrich Hungr et al. (1995) Landslides LS-RAPID Kyoji Sassa et al. (1988, 2004) Landslides, debris flows Debris-2D Ko Fei Liu et al. (2006, 2009) Debris flows TRENT-2D Aronne Armani et al. (2005, 2007) Debris flows DFEM Naef D. et al. (2006) Debris flows Kanako Kana Nakatani et al. (2008) Debris flows FLO-2D (1993, 2014) Mud flow

32 Model Authors Applications DAN Oldrich Hungr et al. (1995) Landslides LS-RAPID Kyoji Sassa et al. (1988, 2004) Landslides, debris flows Debris-2D Ko Fei Liu et al. (2006, 2009) Debris flows TRENT-2D Aronne Armani et al. (2005, 2007) Debris flows DFEM Naef D. et al. (2006) Debris flows Kanako Kana Nakatani et al. (2008) Debris flows FLO-2D (1993, 2014) Mud flow

33 Ban Sen, Van Don

34

35

36

37 Initiation Zone A landslide: materials are easily mobilized Down stream ~3500 m 3

38 Methods for debris flow volume estimation: 1. Geomorphic analysis: Estimate the volume of material that can be easily removed by debris flows 2. Empirical analysis: Empirical relations between catchment properties (e.g. area, geology, slope) and expected debris flow volume 3. Rainfall estimates: Estimation using rainfall parameters and professional experience Information: Volumes of debris, triggering conditions, inundated areas, field mapping

39 Ban Sen, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

40 Ban Sen, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

41 Ban Sen, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

42 Ban Sen, Van Don 44 houses affected: 30 houses with >1m mud 14 houses with <1m mud Modelling of debris flow

43 Ha Long, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

44 Ha Long, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

45 Ha Long, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

46 Ha Long, Van Don Modelling of debris flow

47 Ha Long, Van Don 54 houses affected: 13 houses with >1m mud 41 houses with <1m mud Modelling of debris flow

48 Cam Thuy, Cam Pha Modelling of debris flow

49 Cam Thuy, Cam Pha Modelling of debris flow

50 Cam Thuy, Cam Pha Modelling of debris flow

51 Cam Thuy, Cam Pha Modelling of debris flow

52 Cam Thuy, Cam Pha 1334 houses affected: 384 houses with >1m mud 950 houses with <1m mud Modelling of debris flow

53 Components of vulnerability Event Physical vulnerability Exposure/ Affected area Humanenvironment system Economic vulnerability Environmental vulnerability Socio-cultural vulnerability

54 Components of vulnerability Physical vulnerability Exposure: Raw exposure Relative exposure Location Structural aspects: Materials Design Environmental vulnerability Depletion/degradation of resources or services Soil Water Air Vegetation Biodiversity

55 Components of vulnerability Economic vulnerability Economic status Dependence Access to economic resources and networks Socio-cultural vulnerability Access to food and water Health status and access to services Education, literacy and access to Info Age structure Culture and language Governance and policy Population movement

56 Component Indicator Source data Social Physical Population Built-up area Transportation Statistics Administrative maps Exposure Community area Economic Land value Landuse Environmental Collecting data from: Field survey Historical information Simulation Expert opinion Natural reserve Forest Cultural sites Administrative maps

57 Content 1 Introduction 2 Hazard zonation 3 4 Discussions

58 Discussions The landslide/debris flow hazard in the area is realistic but not very high, resulting in an underestimation of the real risk. It is impossible to move/reinforce every building located within the high susceptibility zones (due to high costs) It is important that disaster managers are provided with detailed information (location of buildings, infrastructures, groups of people..) that are vulnerable to events. This leads to cost effective mitigation measures and good prioritization of resources. A GIS database of elements at risk and their characteristics is necessary It can be used by various stakeholders according to their needs and priorities and that different weight factors can be applied to the data.

59 Discussions Preparedness High vulnerability: Prepare for the coming rainy season (May-Sep./Oct.) Precautionary evacuations for those in potential direct path of debris flows Who to move?

60 Discussions

61 Discussions The disaster situation in Vietnam is compounded by increased vulnerabilities related to rapidly growing population, unplanned urbanization and rapid development in high risk areas, environmental degradation and climate change There are the urgent needs to: Improve understanding of landslide/debris flow activities Capacity build for disaster management Monitor and evaluate of geohazards Improve disaster risk reduction

62 Discussions There are the urgent needs to: Improve understanding of landslide/debris flow activities Understand from geotechnical aspects, modeling and prediction with time Capacity build for disaster management Professional training on geohazard management Monitor and evaluate of geohazards Develop of warning system, protection designs Improve disaster risk reduction Disaster mitigation, community based risk management

63

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