Potential Earthquake Risk Reduction Opportunities for GEM Caribbean Programme

Transcription

1 Potential Earthquake Risk Reduction Opportunities for GEM Caribbean Programme THREE-DAY REGIONAL WORKSHOP TO LAUNCH GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME KAPOK HOTEL, PORT OF SPAIN, TRINIDAD 2 ND TO 4 TH MAY 2011 Lloyd L. Lynch Instrumentation Eng. Seismic Research Centre The University of the West Indies

2 The Global Earthquake Model - Caribbean Perspectives GEM is NOT intended to be a vehicle to promote EPA in the Caribbean a vehicle to carry out the work of the large insurance/reinsurance companies Opportunities for GEM GEM can extend the achievements of previous projects GEM can piggyback on ongoing programs and Projects GEM as a Opportunity To establish regional Earthquake Risk Reduction (ERR) fraternity To unite ERR professionals across borders and disciplines To provide much needed tools to realize Disaster Risk Management for the earthquake phenomena.

3 Long ago Earthquakes were perceived as acts of God that humans could do nothing about

4 With improved understanding of the natural processes that trigger hazardous events a more technocratic approach emerged which saw public policy application of geophysical and engineering knowledge as the most appropriate way to deal with disasters. Science & Engineering Earthquake Safety Public Building & Construction

5 Next to emerge was the approach which placed emphasis on preparedness measures, such as stockpiling of relief goods, preparedness plans, and a growing role for emergency management organizations.

6 In recent years it was realized that disasters are closely linked to unresolved development problems and requires input from several sectors to solve.

7 Strong Link Between Development and Disasters The advantage of economic growth is not that wealth increases happiness, but that it increases the range of human choice. - Lewis, Arthur (1955) Theory of Economic Growth Disasters are closely linked to the development choices that we make. - Clinton, Bill (2006) Early Warning Conference, Bonn Germany

8 RISK MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES RISK COPING ACTIVITIES * REMITTANCES PREPAREDNESS * MONITORING * FORECASTING * PEO & DRILLS * CONTINGENCY PLANNING * EVACUATION PLANNING * NETWORK OF RESPONDERS RISK IDENTIFICATION * HAZARD ASSESSMENT * VULNREABILITY ASSESSMENT MITIGATION * VULNERABILITY REDUCTION * BUILDING CODE * REGULATION * LAND USE PLANNING * POLICIES * FINANCIAL MARKET * SAVINGS * AID/GRANTS * INSURANCE * EWS

9 Caribbean Earthquake Statistics INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION Region Intensity X IX VIII VII VI Cuba Jamaica Haiti Dom. Rep Puerto Rico Virgin Is Lesser Ant., North Lesser Ant., Central Lesser Ant., South Barbados Trinidad Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs) Mag. (Mw) Carib. Only 6.0 1/yr 2/yr 6.5 1/3 yrs 1/yr 7.0 1/5 yrs? 7.5 1/8 yrs?? 8.0 1/50 yrs??? Carib & Atlantic 1/3 Yrs? 1/6 Yrs?? 1/15 Yrs??? *Taken from C. McCreery, ICG-C, 2006

10 Eastern Caribbean Earthquake Statistics Expected Frequency based on 2009 study of boxed area Mag. (Mw) Freq. (Year) Since (# of Evts.) (250) (77) (12-14 N) 6.3 1/ (58) 6.8 1/ (25) 7.3 1/ (13) 7.8 1/ (4) 8.0 1/270? 1530 (2)

11 No. Killed Pop.(Mil) Caribbean Fatalities from Earthquakes and Tsunamis ( ) Earthquake Fatalities ( ) Total Deaths ~16,500

12 Population in Thousands TRINIDAD and TOBAGO Damaging Earthquakes (IX) 1766 Felt at/above MMI VI Chronology, Population Size and Intensity (VIII) (VI) Seismic Energy (VIII) (VII) (VIII) (VIII)

13 Dynamics of Earthquake Risk in the Caribbean E.g. Trinidad and Tobago: A B C D Earthquake Hazard: M (MMI:VIII-X), <250 Km Range, Ret. Period yrs. M (MMI:VII- IX), < 50 Km Range, Ret. Period yrs*. Exposure: People, property or assets that are within range of the hazard. Vulnerability: Conditions that leads to greater susceptibility to the hazard.

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15 Milestones in the DRR in the Caribbean Caribbean Dev. Bank funded the development of CUBiC ( ) CDB Funded CROSQ to develop Regional Building Standard IDRC/PAIGH ( ) Seismic Hazard Project GSHARP IDNDR ( ) -> OAS/PAHO Safe Schools &Hospitals CCEO/CROSQ requested support to revise and update CUBiC (1999/2004) CDERA/CDEMA Projects Caribbean Hazard Assessment Project (CHAMP) Risk Benchmarking Tool Regional DRM Strategy for the Tourism Sector in the Caribbean Promotion of CDM (Post IDNDR), Adoption of Hyogo Framework of Act. F.W.I. Led Natural Risk Reduction Strategy SEISCARE Conference Establishment of Key institutions e.g. CCRIF, DRRC, CCCCC DRR support International Funding Institutions (CDB, IDB, World Bank) Projects/Programs that have precipitated from misfortunes of others Papua New Guinea Tsunami Puerto Rico Tsunami Program Regional Hurricanes Enhancement in capacity of DMO Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004) CTWS Initiated in 2005 Haitian Earthquake -> COCONet ( ) Partnerships: UWI/CCEO/EUCENTRE, UWI/NGI, UWI/ISTRUCTE

16 Key product of the PAIGH Project PSHA Map

17 Key outcome of the IDRC/PAIGH Project - Recommendations An invaluable output from the IDRC/PAIGH project was a list of recommendations to improve earthquake hazard programmes in the project region. These comprise a list of actions that were deemed necessary : to improve and extend data collection, maintain and improve the catalogue and software used to produce the maps, conduct investigations to help determine the socioeconomic impact of earthquakes and to promote the use of the seismic hazard products. The recommendations also pointed out specific research that needed to be carried out to address certain shortcomings of the catalogue.

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19 2009 Revision of East. Caribbean Hazard Maps depicting Spectral Acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0sec for Return Period of 2475 years

20 CHALLENGES, VULNERABLE SECTORS AND DISCIPLINES INVOLVED < PROBLEM CONTEXT > Primary Challenges Technological Constraints Environmental Constraints Fragmentation Development Pressure SIDS Related Constraints Demographic Changes Uncertainty Ignorance and Indifference < BUILT ENVIRONMENT > Vulnerable Sectors Health Housing Infrastructure Energy and Mines Trade and Agriculture Hospitality Education and Religion Utilities and Lifelines Security Facilities < SOLUTION DOMAIN > Disciplines Involved Government/ Policy Makers Insurers Architect/ Struct. Eng. Geotechnical Engineer Social Scientist Disaster Managers Physical Planners Geo-Scientists Private Sector and NGOs

21 Causes for the unsatisfactory seismic performance of RC frame buildings lie in: the poor choice of a building site, the inappropriate choice of building architectural forms that offer poor seismic performance, the absence of structural design for expected earthquake behaviour, the lack of special seismic detailing of key structural elements, inadequately skilled construction labour, poor quality building materials, and absence of construction supervision.

22 Regional Challenges: Scarcity and Limitations of Vulnerability Information

23 Caribbean Geodynamics Setting [after, e.g., Jordan, 1975; Adamek et al., 1988; Holcombe et al., 1990; Mascle and Letouzey, 1990; Pindell and Barrett, 1990; Heubeck and Mann, 1991; Mann et al., 1995; Flinch et al., 1999; Weber et al., 2001]. Bathymetry from Smith and Sandwell [1997]. Subduction rates from DeMets et al. [2000] and Weber et al. [2001].

24 Closing Statements We have a lot of work to do ahead Microzonation, land use, planning Code compliance mechanisms Structural Vulnerability Pre-disaster Financing We cannot continue to do business as usual We need to mobilize all hands on deck We need to put more shoulders to the wheel Governments must commit to taking concrete and urgent action to reduce future disaster risks We cannot rely on governments to do it alone Volunteers Partnerships Innovation

25 Thanks for your attention Q & A