Contents 1 Global Change and Natural Hazards: New Challenges, New Strategies Flood Forecasting for the River Inn...35

Transcription

1 1 Global Change and Natural Hazards: New Challenges, New Strategies...1 J. Stötter, H. Weck-Hannemann, E. Veulliet 1.1 Introduction Global Change Processes Changes in the temperature system Changes in the hydro-meteorological system Explanation - trying to find the key driver Consequences Global Climate Change and its Future Regional Implications The Global Frame Regional Implications for the 21 st Century Globalization: Socio-economic Change and its Regional Implications Changing risks as a consequence of the overlay of Global Change processes Contributing to a sustainable natural hazard management: Our main task...28 References Flood Forecasting for the River Inn...35 S. Senfter, G. Leonhardt, C. Oberparleiter, J. Asztalos, R. Kirnbauer, F.Schöberl, H. Schönlaub 2.1 Introduction The River Inn in Tyrol Risk Management and Flooding An Overview of the Forecast Model Meteorological Data Forecast data Observed Data Hydrological Model HQ SIM Model Description Data...45

2 VIII Calibration Definition of the Hydrotopes Glacier Model SES Model Description Data Calibration The Hydrodynamic Model Model Description Data Calibration Rule-Based Operation of Power Plants Hydrodynamic Model for the Bavarian Inn Potential for the Optimization of the Operational Management of Alpine Reservoirs Example Based on the Flood in August Summary...64 References Runoff and bedload transport modelling for flood hazard assessment in small alpine catchments - the PROMAB GIS model...69 M. Rinderer, S. Jenewein, S. Senfter, D. Rickenmann, F. Schöberl, J. Stötter, C. Hegg 3.1 Introduction Simple approaches for total sediment load assessment Simulation models for hydro-sedigraph estimation PROMAB GIS a process-based approach for massbalances in small alpine catchments Modell concept PROMAB GIS Runoff Bedload Transport Case study Erlenbach Overview Geology and Processes Hydrological setting Modell validation...89 References...97

3 IX 4 Modelling peak runoff in small Alpine catchments based on area properties and system status C. Geitner, M. Mergili, J. Lammel, A. Moran, C. Oberparleiter, G. Meißl, H. Stötter 4.1 Introduction Background and motivation Challenges and objectives State of the art Study areas Location and catchment characteristics Data basis and hydrological comparison Model General model layout Input data and parameters Parameter estimation System status model Pool model Runoff model Results Comparison of modelled and gauged discharges in the Stampfangertal catchment Comparison of modelled and gauged discharges in the Längental catchment Conclusions and discussion References Process-based investigations and monitoring of deep-seated landslides C. Zangerl, C. Prager, W. Chwatal, S. Mertl, D. Renk, B. Schneider- Muntau, H. Kirschner, R. Brandner, E. Brückl, W. Fellin, E. Tentschert, S. Eder, G. Poscher, H. Schönlaub 5.1 Introduction Landslide classifications Temporal distribution of dated landslides in the East Alpine region Basic principles of deformation and failure processes of landslides Fracture mechanical processes Sliding processes Failure and temporal behaviour of sliding zone materials Temporal deformation behaviour of landslides Geophysical investigation methods...158

4 X Active seismic methods Ground Penetrating Radar Monitoring of landslides Deformation Monitoring Seismic monitoring Summary References Alpine tourist destinations a safe haven in turbulent times? Exploring travellers perception of risks and events of damage C. Eitzinger, P.M. Wiedemann 6.1 Introduction Theoretical approaches in risk perception research Bounded rationality, heuristics und biases The Psychometric Paradigm The Cultural Theory Context dependency of risk perception The role of affective processes Risk and damage perception in alpine tourist destinations Interviews: What are typical risks of alpine destinations? Online questionnaire: Risk perception and trust building safety measures in alpine tourist destinations Psychometric study: Qualitative dimensions of damage perception Experiment on Story Effects in damage perception Summary and outlook References Protective measures against natural hazards are they worth their costs? A. Leiter, M. Thöni, H. Weck-Hannemann 7.1 Introduction Alternative Decision Support Instruments Cost Benefit Analysis and Cost Effectiveness Analysis Cost Benefit Analysis - a conceptual approach The Valuation of Benefits Survey design primary data collection Descriptive statistics Econometric analysis Results Application of the results and an outlook Conclusion References...225

5 XI 8 Analysing Decision Mechanisms for Natural Hazard Management C.D. Gamper, P.A. Raschky, H. Weck-Hannemann 8.1 Introduction A process-oriented economic approach How can a process-oriented analysis be designed? Multi Criteria Decision Analysis combining output- and process-orientation for an efficient decision-making process MCA the procedure MCA s potential for natural hazard management Conclusions References Alternative Risk Transfer and Alternative Risk Financing M. Gruber, R. Wiesner 9.1 Introduction Self-insurance, Captives and Risk Retention Groups Securitisation Financial Reinsurance and Finite Risk Contingent Capital Structures Multi-line/Multi-year und Multi-trigger Products Weather Derivatives References Risk management S. Ortner, J. Lammel, M. Pöckl, A.P. Moran 10.1 Introduction Risk Risk management model System Framework - Definitions Process stages of risk management Application of risk management Communal level the city of Innsbruck Risk assessment Corporate level TILAK (The Tyrolean Provincial Hospital Company) Corporate level Ski lift operator Schlick 2000 Schizentrum AG, Bergbahn AG Kitzbühel Outlook References...307

6 XII 11 Laser scanning - a paradigm change in topographic data acquisition for natural hazard management T. Geist, B. Höfle, M. Rutzinger, N. Pfeifer, J. Stötter 11.1 Introduction Description of the technology Description of data products Laser point cloud Digital Elevation Models (DEM) Digital Intensity Models Existing applications in natural hazard management Rockfall Landslides and debris flow deposits Hydrology (torrent activities and floods) Hazards related to glaciers and permafrost conditions Avalanches Protection forest Object protection Conclusion Laser scanning data and products a substantial input for natural hazard management Data management: GIS and database embedding strategies Data analysis ALS land cover classification Topographic analysis Opening new dimensions - future potentials of laser scanning in natural hazard risk management References Improving Safety in Alpine Regions through a combination of GSM/GPRS with satellite communication, GIS, and robust positioning technology S. Baumann, J. Czaja, W. Lechner 12.1 Introduction User requirements and market analysis User requirements Market overview Application scenario definition Background Mobile Mission Centre scenario System architecture with innovative mobile modules...355

7 XIII 12.5 Validation of system components Simulation of SatCom availability GSM/SatCom availability in the Alps Performance analysis of low-cost GPS-receivers Multi-Sensor Box (MSB) Multi-Communication Box (MCB) Validation of the PANORAMA core system System Overview Geo-data User terminal GIS with www-interface Test campaign Conclusions References Pros and cons of four years experience of alps E. Veulliet, H. Weck-Hannemann, J. Stötter Introduction Main Objectives Basic Approach Structure Research Program Lessons learned Integrative Organisation Challenges, Development and Adaptation Future Challenges List of reviewers List of contributors List of partners...401