Use of mul*- tracers simula*ons for characterizing transport models (TransCom- HIPPO?)
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1 Use of mul*- tracers simula*ons for characterizing transport models (TransCom- HIPPO?) Prabir Patra, Steve Wofsy, Bri2on Stephens et al. Presented at HIPPO workshop Mar 212 NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, USA Research InsMtute for Global Change
2 IntroducMon UncertainMes in transport model impede use and interpretamon (inversion) of atmospheric observamons We believe use of mulm- tracers is crimcal to separate errors associated with surface fluxes and model transport HIPPO transects and seasonal measurements provide unique opportunity to characterize transport model propermes
3 Scheme of GHGs Simula*on in ACTM (Patra et al., 29) Model: CCSR/NIES/FRCGC Atmospheric General CirculaMon Model (AGCM) Meteorology: ECMWF/NCEP/JMA for the period is nuddged at relaxamon Mme of 1-5 day for U, V, and T Gases: CO 2, CH 3 CCl 3, CH 4, CFC- 12, N 2 O, SF 6, 222 Rn Tracers: 1. CO2a: CASA biosphere + Takahashi Ocean + Fossil Fuel 2. CO2b: TransCom inversions + Fossil Fuel 3. CO2c: HiRes (TDI- 64/ACTM) cyclosta*onary + Fossil Fuel 4. CO2d: TDI- 64/ACTM + TDI- 64/CTME IAV + Fossil Fuel Members: Prabir Patra Kentaro Ishijima Kazuyuki Miyazaki Ryu Saito 5. CH 4 : EDGAR Anthropogenic + GISS/VISIT Natural (simple OH chemistry, O 1 D, Cl) 6. CH 3 CCl 3 : McCulloch/Krol (OH, O 1 D chemistry; Photolysis, oceanic sink) 7. N 2 O: EDGAR terrestrial + Ocean model (O 1 D, Photolysis) 8. CFC- 12: EDGAR AFEAS modified for trends (O 1 D, Photolysis) 9. SF 6 : EDGAR + Univ. Heidelberg/Levin (for trends) 1. Radon: annual mean flux (simple decay) 11. Radon: monthly mean flux Updated from Gakujutsu Sousei Mee6ng CAOS, Tohoku University; 28 Jun 26
4 Atmospheric transport of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM- based Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) Patra et al., ACP, 29
5 ACTM simula*ons of CH 4 and CH 3 CCl 3 Patra et al., JMSJ, 29
6 Carbon balance of South Asia constrained by passenger aircrac CO2 measurements (Patra et al., ACP, 211) Measurements between Frankfurt, Germany and Chennai, India CONTRAIL for near- global coverage 28
![CONTRAIL and ACTM/CARIBIC CO 2 over Delhi, India: Role of fluxes on ver*cal profile simula*on Altitude [km] 12 1 8 6 4 a.](/docs-images/88/114993748/images/7-0.jpg "Jan, Feb, Mar CONTRAIL (average & 1 σ spread) 1. TDI64 2. TDI64/CARIBIC 3. TDI64/CARIBIC - modified 4.")
7 CONTRAIL and ACTM/CARIBIC CO 2 over Delhi, India: Role of fluxes on ver*cal profile simula*on Altitude [km] a. Jan, Feb, Mar CONTRAIL (average & 1 σ spread) 1. TDI64 2. TDI64/CARIBIC 3. TDI64/CARIBIC - modified 4. TDI22 (ACTM) b. Apr., Jun d. Oct, Nov, Dec 27 Altitude [km] c. Jul, Aug, Sep Strong CO 2 uptake CO 2 [ppm] CO 2 [ppm] Strong CO 2 release
8 TransCom CH 4 : linking chemistry, transport & emission Analyzed, AGCM or AGCM- nudged meteorology Photochemical loss, surface sinks and radioac*ve decay 9. CH 3 CCl 3 emission (for OH validamon) Chemistry- Transport models (CTMs) CH 4 emission scenarios 1. CH 4 CTL 2. CH 4 E4 3. CH 4 BB Radon emission (for synopmc Mmescale/ regional transport) 7. SF 6 emission (for annual Mmescale/ interhemispheric transport) 4. CH 4 BB_WL 5. CH 4 INV 6. CH 4 EXTRA Patra et al., ACP, 12813ff, 211
9 ParMcipaMng transport models and model variants in TransCom- CH 4 intercomparison (199-27)
10 List of 8 surface sites used in TransCom- CH 4 analysis
11 CH 4 _CTL IH gradient [ppb] NIES-8i CCAM ACTM TOMCAT GEOS-Chem CAM IMPACT_1x1 PCTM ACTMACCESS GEOS-Chem_DOH IMPACT Obs ACTM_OH LMDZ MOZART TM5_1x1 y= *x (r=.87) TM5 Inter- Hemispheric (IH) gradient in transport models TransCom- CH 4 (Patra et al., ACP, 211) 8 HIPPO (Kort et al., GRL, 211) TM5_1x1 TM5 5m 45m 6.9 CH 3 CCl 3 IH gradient [ppt].4.2 NIES-8i GEOS-Chem_DOH CCAM ACCESS TOMCAT IMPACT IMPACT_1x1 PCTM ACTM ACTM_OH LMDZ GEOS-Chem CAM Obs MOZART y= *x (r=.71) SF 6 IH gradient [ppt] Observed Prior model o S 4 o S 2 o S Eq. 2 o N 4 o N 6 o N 8 o N SF 6 [ppt]
12 TransCom- HIPPO intercomparison expectamons 1. Never been able to validate the tropospheric cross- secmons CH 4 (ppb) 2. MulMple species our best bet to disentangle flux and transport model errors in forward simulamons 3. OH in two hemispheres : (crimcal for CO, NO x, SO x inversions) TCOM OH : NH/SH =.99 (σ press =1.-.1) ACTM OH : NH/SH = Others :
13 Possible Target species of TransCom- HIPPO Carbon cycle science: CO 2 (modelers choose their preferred fluxes too many opmons to choose from; inversion fluxes should be without HIPPO data) O 2 /N 2 (flux: SIO/Keeling makes one set) OCS (flux: UEA/Suntharalingam & ESRL) (wish list) Atmospheric chemistry and climate CH 4 (flux: RIGC/Patra makes two sets; prescribed chemistry) H 2 (flux: RIGC & ESRL; prescribed chemistry) CO (flux: WuR/Krol & GEOS- Chem; prescribed chemistry) N 2 O (flux: RIGC; prescribed chemistry) Halocarbons CH 3 CCl 3 (flux: WuR/Krol makes one set; prescribed chemistry) CFC- 12 and others (flux: RIGC & ESRL make one set; prescribed chemistry) HCFC- 22 and others (flux: RIGC & ESRL make one set; prescribed chemistry) Model transport validamon SF 6 (flux: RIGC & ESRL makes one set; no chemistry) 222 Radon (flux: available standard; radioacmve decay Mme)
14 Period of simulamon spin- up for establishing stratosphere- troposphere transport and photo- chemical equilibrium for most species analysis Other?
15 Model output Monthly- mean/daily- noon on constant pressure surfaces: (standard: 1-1 mb) 3- hourly output for the 5 HIPPO months (standard pressure: 1-1 mb) Profile sampling along the HIPPO tracks (fortran program will be provided) Hourly model output at a selected (1 odd) surface stamons 3D file format is NetCDF and sampling locamon as ASCII? Other issues?
16 Some addimonal thoughts APPLICATION OF HIPPO AND MODEL FOR INTERPRETING REMOTELY SENSED TOTAL COLUMNS
17 Comparison of ACTM simulamons with TCCOM 392 (a) Annual mean ConcentraMon 2 Bias, RMSE and CorrelaMon coefficient 1 X CO2 [ppm] (a) 18 (b) 2 (b) 1 X CH4 [ppb] ACTM: 29 TCCON: 29 ACTM: 21 TCCON: 21 (c) R (TS) X N2O [ppb] LAU WOL DAR IZO JPL TKB LAM LEF GAR Site name ORL KAR BRE BIA SOD EUR Tropical sites LAU WOL DAR IZO JPL TKB LAM LEF GAR ORL Site name KAR BRE (c) BIA SOD EUR.5
18 TCCON and ACTM seasonal cycles (amplitudes overesmmated at d. GAR, f. LAM, i. IZO) Saito et al., ACPD, 212
19 What s in the total column values? Red : troposphere Blue: stratosphere Saito et al., ACPD, 212
20 Why are the troposphere and stratosphere so different? Harnisch et al., GRL, 1996; Patra et al., JGR, 1997; Patra et al., ACP, 29; Saito et al., JGR, 211
21 ReconstrucMon of tracer (CO 2 ) profiles from age of air Sanriku, Japan (39.2 o N) Observed From ACTM age From ACTM- corrected Further validamon: 1. Use Andrews et al. for the lower stratosphere 2. AddiMonal data from balloon profiles from other lamtudes 3. Extension to other species, CH 4, N 2 O Miyamoto et al., in prep.
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