Atmospheric Inversion results
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1 Atmospheric Inversion results Viterbo RECCAP Philippe Peylin LSCE, France Rachel Law CSIRO, Australia Kevin Gurney, Xia Zhang Arizona State University/Purdue University, USA Zegbeu poussi LSCE, France and model participants
2 1 of these is previous T3 average Tutorial 1 : Logistics These exclude some submissions that were too short Results accessible at: Plotted maps and time series ( component fluxes X aggregated regions) no psswrd Data files ( component fluxes X aggregated regions and gridded) - psswrd 11 state of the art inversions (some multiple submissions) All re-gridded to a common grid (1 x1, monthly) Component fluxes = prior, fossil fuel, posterior (estimate) transcom Regional fluxes = land/ocean regions + various aggregates (109) Region mask boundaries of the chosen regional breakdown and aggregates (regular and extended) We urge regional leads to contact inverters for additional clarification The complete 1 x1, monthly files are also available roll your own regions
3 Tutorial 2 : Participants Name Time period Transport model Winds Atm Data Flux spatial res. Flux temp. Res. Inverse Method Lsce_an_v LMDZ v4 ECMWF Monthly mean gridcell monthly Bayesian Matrix Lsce_var_v LMDZ v3 ECMWF Raw gridcell 8 day with night & day sep Jena_s96_v TM3 NCEP reanalysis Variational Raw gridcell Daily Variational Carbntrckr_US TM5 zoom Raw 156 ecoregions weekly Kalman smoother Carbntrckr_EU TM5 zoom Raw 145 land + 30 ocean Rigc_patra NIES/FRCGC NCEP reanalysis T3 mean models 13 models (climatology) weekly Kalman smoother Monthly mean 64 Monthly Bayesian Matrix Monthly mean 22 Monthly Bayesian Matrix JMA Monthly mean 22 Monthly Bayesian Matrix Nicam_Niwa NICAM-TM Monthly mean 22 Monthly Bayesian Matrix C13_MATCH Rayner C13_CCAM Law MATCH NCEP 1999 (climatology) CCAM NCEP 1999 (climatology) Monthly mean 116 Monthly Bayesian Matrix Monthly mean 146 Monthly Bayesian Matrix We are choosing a start date of 1995 for RECCAP
4 Tutorial 3: Miscellaneous notes Fossil emissions differed between inversions: Attempted fix : Fossil adjustment with common fossil fuel CO 2 flux Uncertainties: (in progress, Enting et al., Transcom) Bayesian errors will be provided for key regions Spread induced by changing model components available for few cases (contact individual modeler) Validation against independent data (in progress) Atm. Vertical profile, campaign, independent C-cycle obs, etc Regridding & land/sea mask can create inaccuracies special care for regions with shaped coastal boundaries
5 Website Thank you Zegbeu!
6 Tutorial 4: Proceed with Caution 1. Well-constrained region (Europe) 2. Poorly-constrained region (Africa)
7 4 continued: Consequences of poor constraints Influence of prior Sensitivity to an individual site Jena (dark blue) only inversion without EIC and very different E-W flux split Australian seasonal cycle from 4 inversions. Posterior (solid), prior (dashed). Different prior seasonality due to inclusion or not of biomass burning.
8 4 continued: Caution with big region estimates Annual total flux (GtC/yr) North Asia Large flux dipoles : «regional estimates should be interpreted with great care depending on the boundary of the regions EUROPE spurious anti-correlations a form of representation error
9 Results 1 : Long term means Natural fluxes (GtC/yr) period Northern land + ocean Tropical land + ocean LSCE_an_v2.1 JENA_s96_v3.2 CTracker_EU LSCE_var_v1. C13_MATCH CTracker_US TRCOM_me RIGC_patra JMA_2010 C13_CCAM NCAM_Niwa Southern land + ocean
10 The following results are preliminary and based on current submissions. These may change at a future time.
11 Results 1 : Long term means Natural fluxes (GtC/yr) period N. America N. Atlantic LSCE_an_v2.1 JENA_s96_v3.2 CTracker_EU LSCE_var_v1. C13_MATCH CTracker_US TRCOM_me RIGC_patra JMA_2010 C13_CCAM NCAM_Niwa Europe N. Asia
12 Results 2: IAV (land) Total land LSCE_an_v2.1 JENA_s96_v3.2 CTracker_EU LSCE_var_v1. C13_MATCH CTracker_US TRCOM_me RIGC_patra JMA_2010 C13_CCAM NCAM_Niwa Northern land Tropical land Southern land
13 Results 2: IAV (ocean) Total ocean LSCE_an_v2.1 JENA_s96_v3.2 CTracker_EU LSCE_var_v1. C13_MATCH CTracker_US TRCOM_me RIGC_patra JMA_2010 C13_CCAM NCAM_Niwa Northern ocean Tropical ocean Southern ocean
14 Results 2: IAV (continental scale) N. America N. Atlantic Europe LSCE_an_v2.1 JENA_s96_v3.2 CTracker_EU LSCE_var_v1. C13_MATCH CTracker_US TRCOM_me RIGC_patra JMA_2010 C13_CCAM NCAM_Niwa N. Asia
15 Results 3 : Seas. Cycle & IAV Seas. Cycle Mean amplitude of all models Standard dev. of all models IAV Mean IAV for all models Standard dev. of all models
16 Results 4 : N-S zonal mean integrated fluxes
17 Summary New set of 11 inverse results (which includes TRcom3 mean as 1) WEB-site available for downloading Uncertainties & Validation in progress (part of Transcom) Results may be updated with announcement Proceed with caution together with inverse specialists Differences in long term mean but coherence in IAV at large scales Small scales regional results sensitive to: Network, Priors, Flux resolution
18 Thank You
19 Global Inversion Status/Plans 1) Results accessible at: 2) 11 results available at 1 x1 & region (individual and aggregate: 109) 3) 1995 to 2008 (inc) but individuals will run back to 1980 monthly/annual 4) Fluxes include: prior, fossil, posterior, total, adjusted fluxes 5) Region mask and explanation available 6) Updates will occur (we will announce) 7) Uncertainty work & decisions ongoing 8) Decision on a weighted mean ongoing 9) Proceed with caution (tentative inverter assignments made for ocean) 10) TransCom meeting: December San Francisco AGU
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