Modelling tools for assessing lagoon water quality and biological resources
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1 Modelling tools for assessing lagoon water quality and biological resources Arturas Razinkovas-Baziukas Petras Zemlys
2 Spatial heterogeneity and morphological complexity requires not traditional tools for modelling of the Curonian lagoon ecosystem.
3 Two modelling approaches Box model (ESTAS) High resolution multi dimensional finite element model (SHYFEM)
4 Introduction Spatial heterogeneity and morphological complexity requires not traditional tools for modelling of the Curonian Lagoon ecosystem. Only application of coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models with varying spatial resolution enables to reproduce important features related to the water exchange between the Curonian lagoon and the Baltic Sea. Finite element model SHYFEM developed at Venice Marine institute (G.Umgiesser now also part of our team) is a good basis for development of such ecological models.
5 SHYFEM features Flexible mesh enables to resolve complex spatial features.
6 ζ U fv + gh + RU + X = 0 t x V ζ + fu + gh + RV + Y = 0 t y ζ U V =0 + + t x y
7 Multidimensionality. Possibility to create 2D and 3D models. Interface for coupling of hydrodynamics with ecological models (code level).
8 Model SHYFEM/AQUABC SHYFEM/AQUABC is coupled WQhydrodynamic model developed for the Curonian lagoon and coastal area of the Baltic Sea. AQUABC is WQ model coupled with finite element model SHYFEM. AQUABC consists of two modules: 1) Water column module; 2) Bottom sediment module (under development)
9 Main features of the water column module: 22 WQ state variables. 3 phytoplankton groups (diatoms, cyanobacteria, greens). Simulation of nitrogen fixation. One zooplankton group. Nutrients: Nitrogen, phosphorus, silica
10 Water column state variables 1. AMMONIUM NITROGEN 2. NITRATE NITROGEN 3. ORTHOPHOSPHATE PHOSPHORUS 4. PHYTOPLANKTON CARBON FOR GREENS 5. EXTERNAL LABILE DISSOLVED DETRITUS CARBON 6. DISSOLVED OXYGEN 7. EXTERNAL LABILE PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON 8. EXT. REFRACTORY DISS. DETRITUS CARBON 9. ZOOPLANKTON CARBON 10. NONBIOGENIC SILICA 11. EXTERNAL REFRACTORY PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON 12. PHYTOPLANKTON CARBON FOR DIATOMS 13. PHYTOPLANKTON CARBON FOR CYANOBACTERIA 14. INORGANIC CARBON 15. GREENS DISSOLVED DETRITUS CARBON 16. GREENS PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON 17. DIATOM DISSOLVED DETRITUS CARBON 18. DIATOM PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON 19. CYANOBACTERIA DISSOLVED DETRITUS CARBON 20. CYANOBACTERIA PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON 21. ZOOPLANKTON DISSOLVED DETRITUS CARBON 22. ZOOPLANKTON PARTICULATE DETRITUS CARBON
11 Possibility to choose different modelling domains
12 Open sea boundary condition: Operational hydrodynamic model HIROMB (1 nautical mile horizontal resolution). Lithuania coastal area HIROMB (300m horizontal resolution).
13 Performance. Water level
14 Temperature
15 Salinity
16 Phytoplankton carbon. Greens.
17 Phytoplankton carbon. Diatoms
18 Phytoplankton carbon. Cyanobacteria
19 Ammonia nitrogen
20 Nitrates nitrogen
21 Phosphates phosphorus
22 Under the development 2011: Bottom sediments model 12 state variables 3 vertical layers List of state variables: 1 BS amonia 2 BS nitrates 3 BS dissolved organic nitrogen 4 BS particulate organic nitrogen 5 BS dissolved orthophosphates phosphorus 6 BS dissolved organic phosphorus 7 BS particulate organic phosphorus 8 BS dissolved oxygen 9 BS dissolved organic carbon 10 BS particulate organic carbon 11 BS dissolved silica 12 BS particulate silica
23 A ECOPATH /ECOSIM SUBMODELS B C
24 ECOPATH - NPZD LINKAGE (A.Erturk & A. Razinkovas, 2009 To Higher Trophic Levels Curonian LagoonTrophic Network Model ESTAS / ALUKAS Greens Diatoms Cyanobacteria Zooplankton Ex. LabilePar. Det. C + Ex. RefractoryPar. Det. C + GreensPart. Det. C + Diatoms.Part. Det. C + Cyanobacteria Part. Det. C + ZooplanktonPart. Det. C Ex. LabileDiss. Org. C + Ex. RefractoryDiss. Org. C + GreensDiss. Org. C + DiatomsDiss. Org. C + Cyanobacteria Diss. Org. C + ZooplanktonDiss. Org. C To Nutrients
25 Curonian lagoon ECOSIM compartments Species Age groups 1 Bream 13 2 Roach 10 3 White bream 12 4 Vimba 1 5 Pikeperch 6 6 Perch 8 7 Ruffe 6 9 Three spine stickleback 1
26 Coastal Baltic sea ECOSIM compartments Species Age groups 1 Bream 3 2 Smelt 3 3 White bream 2 4 Flounder 2 5 Pikeperch 3 6 Perch 3 7 Lesser sandeel 1
27 Under the development 2011: ECOSIM coupling to NPZD model at the code level Provide possibility of dynamic simulations Provide possibility of water quality related forcing in ECOSIM Provide possibility of the feedback from ECOSIM to NPZD
28 Conclusions Model SHYFEM/AQUABC satisfactory reproduces dynamics of the main hydrodynamic and WQ variables for the Curonian Lagoon under real atmospheric forcing and boundary conditions from the river Nemunas and the Baltic Sea. Model can be used for the calculation of climate change scenarios when supplied by water runoff and nutrients loads from the rivers and information for the open boundary of the Baltic Sea.
29 Forthcoming publications: Razinkovas-Baziukas & Schernewski Climate change effects in the Oder and Curonian lagoons of the Baltic sea prepared for Transitional water bulletin Razinkovas-Baziukas et al. Commercial fish stock dynamics in Curonian lagoon : modelling approach (due in 2011) P. Zemlys et al. paper on benthic model
30 Message to the stakeholders: NPZD model results Different scenarios based on nutrient reduction measures in the catchment Effectiveness of the in-catchement measures
31 Message to the stakeholders: NPZD model results Total N
32 Message to the stakeholders: NPZD model results Total P
33 Message to the stakeholders: NPZD model results Chlorophyll A
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