Changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton production in the Nordic and the Arctic Seas under a warmer climatic regime.
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1 Changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton production in the Nordic and the Arctic Seas under a warmer climatic regime. Dag Slagstad, Ingrid Ellingsen and Morten Alver, Trondheim, Norway 2 nd ESSAS Open Science Meeting. 22 May 22-26, Seattle
2 Outline A short model description and a few results Model experiments using different atmospheric forcings: IPCC A1B (and A2) Modified reanalysed data
3 The SINMOD Basic Model Components CO 2 - system Air-sea flux Respiration Photosynthesis Zooplankton Phytoplankton Nutrients Fish and other predators Atmospheric forcing Hydrodynamics Flow Temperature Salinity Ice. Fresh water run-off 3
4 The SINMOD hydrodynamic model Model characteristics z-level model Mode splitting EVP ice model (Hibler 1979, Hunke 1997) Initialisations Temperature and Salinity: WOCE data: Ice. A course specification and then spin-up for 20 years. Forcing Atmosphere: ECMWF (ERA40, ERA INTERIM) For the Climate runs: ECHAM 5 - Max Plank model. ERA40 and specified increase in air temperature Freshwater run-off from rivers surrounding the model domain 4
5 Model domain
6 Mesozooplankton C. finmarch. C. glacialis HNANO Ciliates Detritus (fast sinking) Detritus (slow sinking) DOC Bacteria Flagellates Diatoms Algal leakage sloppy Respiration Export feeding Nitrate Ammonium Silicate N 2 Bottom sediments
7 Calanus Population model Females Egg production Egg + nauplii Stage CI CII Copepodites CV Weigh t 10% Overwintering CV
8 Barents Sea. Fraction covered by ice. ERA Interim forcing Observes and Simulated
9 Arctic Ocean. Fraction covered by ice. ERA Interim forcing Observes and Simulated
10 Annual Mean ( ) Gross Primary Production (GPP). Forcing: ERA Interim
11 Surface nitrate, Winter
12 Annual C. finmarchicus production. Mean Forcing: ERA Interim
13 Annual C. glacialis production. Mean Forcing: ERA Interim
14 Climatic experiments 1. Atmospheric input from Climate models 1. A2 Global, coarse resolution model 2. A1B Regional, high resolution model 2. Use present reanalysed atmospheric forcing and increase air temperature to melt down the summer ice.
15 IPCC scenarios and projected global warming
16 Projections of surface temperatures
17 A1B. Annual Primary and secondary production Norwegian Sea
18 A1B. Annual Primary and secondary production Barents Sea
19 A1B. Annual gross primary production
20 Annual mean production of C. finmarchicus
21 Annual mean production of C. glacialis
22 A1B (GCM) vs A2
23 A1B (GCM) vs A2 Barents Sea A1B A2
24 Specified increased air temperature. Depending on Latitude T air T ECMWF air f T (Latitude) Example: T airnp =8 C 24
25 Simulations Standard run, ECMWF data (ERA40), i. e. T airnp = 0. ( ) 4 scenarios using: 1. T airnp = +2 C 2. T airnp = +4 C 3. T airnp = +6 C 4. T airnp = +8 C Simulation period:
26 Arctic Ocean. Fraction covered with ice
27 Minimum ice cover (Barents Sea: Max ice cover)
28 Sections
29 Section along 40 o E. April
30 Section along 150 o E. April
31 Gross Primary production (gc m -2 )
32 Differece in GPP (gc m -2 ) CaseV Case I 32
33 Production of C. finmarchicus (g C m -2 )
34 Change in the distribution of C. glacialis
35 Annual Production (gc m -2 ) C. glacialis
36 Major findings Warming may cause: 1.Primary production will increase 2 or 3 fold in the Arctic. But stratification limits nutrient supply from below. 2.C. glacialis production will increase in the Arctic Ocean. 3.C. glacialis will disappear from the Northern Barents Sea. 4.Total primary production in the Barents Sea increases only slightly and decreases in the Norwegian Sea 5.C. finmarcicus production increases in the Greenland and Iceland Seas.
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