Environmental changes
|
|
- Erick Tobias Hood
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Environmental changes What are the fishery, environmental, and trophic effects in historical data? Can we use short-term predictions from multiple regression models? Two kind of predictions: What happens when? What happens if? IPCC 2001, Box 6-1
2 Normalised catches of 11 commercial fish species (accounting for about 40% of the world s marine catch) have fluctuated together over the 20th century. Catches also show a strong relationship with the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI). ACI is a large-scale, multi-decadal climatic index based on the direction of atmospheric air mass transfer. Adapted from Klyashtorin (2001) IGBP Science Series, Marine Ecosystems and Global Change
3 Global ecosystem Includes atmosphere, lithosphere biosphere Modified from Karl et al. (2003)
4
5 Artist: Glynn Gorick Iverson (1990) All biological production in the sea depends on plankton
6 Regional Climatology Affects Ecosystems The Northern Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO)
7 The Northern Atlantic Oscillation NAO Index The Atlantic Multidecal Oscillations (AMO) Sutton and Hodson(2005)
8 North sea changes Trends in the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (CPR) data. Annual mean biomass (mg C m -3 ) in the upper 10m, and as a proportion of the biomass of species representing all omnivorous zooplankton.
9 Changes in species composition between a cold water and warm water temperate copepod species in the North sea.
10 Climate (NAO) influence biology r 2 = 0.58 Relationship between annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from CPR Surveys and the winter NAO index in the North Sea. Blue triangles are from when the relationship broke down in the late 1990s. Redrawn in Skjoldal (2004) after Reid and Beaugrand (2002)
11 Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the long termaveraged temperature (the AMO signal) Toresen og Østvedt (2000)
12 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Historical sea surface temperature index (ENSO) El Niño and La Niña events are characterized by warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. They are also associated with changes in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Once developed, El Niño and La Niña events are known to shift the seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world, even ones that are distant from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. For publications on ENSO and fisheries see:
13 El Niño Comparison of El Niño conditions (left) with normal conditions (right).
14
15 Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) index and modeled primary production (integrated from the surface to 120m) between 1962 and During the negative PDO, before 1978, the equatorial Pacific was cooler and primary productivity was higher. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the PDO was in the positive phase and, therefore, productivity in general was lower.
16 Climate change Time series of departures from the 1961 to 1990 base period for an annual mean global temperature of 14.0 C (bars) and for a carbon dioxide mean of 334 ppmv (solid curve) during the base period. From Karl et al. (2003)
17 Present level Present level
18 Historical data examined shows changes in the ocean heat content (to depths of 3000 m) to be slowly increasing with substantial decadal time scale variations related to climate variability. Levitus et al (Science, 1999)
19 Cod Recruitment and Temperature Warm Temperatures increases Recruitment 7 Warm Temperatures decreases Recruitment Recruits 3 Temp 10 2 Mean Annual Bottom Temperature Planque and Fredou (1999) 11 From Drinkwater (2004)
20 d(recruitment)/dt Cod Recruitment and Temperature R 2 = Bottom Temperature If BT < 5 and T warms stock recruitment generally increase If BT between 5 and 8.5 C little change in recruitment If BT >8.5 C recruitment generally decreases If BT 12 C we do not see any cod stocks Drinkwater (2004)
21 North sea Examples of North Sea fish that have moved north with climatic warming. Relationships between mean latitude and 5-year running mean winter bottom temperature for (A) cod, (B) anglerfish, and (C) snake blenny. In (D), ranges of shifts in mean latitude are shown. Bars on the map illustrate only shift ranges of mean latitudes, not longitudes. From Perry et al. (2005)
22 North sea cod fishing or environment?
23 Sea level changes
24 IPPC, WG1 TS Figure 24
25 Consequences for the PICs? Biologically little is known, but there seems to be a correlation between sea temperatures and coral bleaching. A. Coral showing normally pigmented regions and bleached regions to the upper side more sunlit side of colony. B. Coral in shallows showing similar pattern. Photographer: O. Hoegh-Guldberg.
26 Coral bleaching Weekly sea surface temperature data for Tahiti (149.5oW 17.5oS). Arrows indicate bleaching events reported in the literature. Horizontal line indicates the minimum temperature above which bleaching events occur (threshold temperature). Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
27 Coral bleaching Number of reef provinces bleaching since Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
28 Coral bleaching Regions where major coral reef bleaching events have taken place during the past 15 years. Yellow spots indicate major bleaching events.
29 Predictions McWilliams et al Ecology. 86(8) IPCC predicts a 1-2 C rise in SST with doubling of CO 2 McWilliams et al. predicts 100% bleaching of coral colonies in the Caribbean with a rise in SST of only 0.85 C
30 Final comments Future climate changes are expected Impact on fish production unknown Individual stocks may change in abundance locally If stock increases the cause will be attributed to environment If the stock decrease the cause will be attributed to overfishing
31
32 Leftover slides
33 Time for fighting climate change! Record Heat Record Ice Melt Record Coral Bleaching Record Hurricane season Record Droughts
34 Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe. The scale bar indicates ±100 mm. IPCC 2001(
A Synthesis of Results from the Norwegian ESSAS (N-ESSAS) Project
A Synthesis of Results from the Norwegian ESSAS (N-ESSAS) Project Ken Drinkwater Institute of Marine Research Bergen, Norway ken.drinkwater@imr.no ESSAS has several formally recognized national research
More informationChapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016
Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record
More informationNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation Control of Climate in Puerto Rico
2713 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation Control of Climate in Puerto Rico BJÖRN A. MALMGREN Department of Earth Sciences, University of Göteborg, Goteborg,
More informationOcean cycles and climate ENSO, PDO, AMO, AO
Ocean cycles and climate ENSO, PDO, AMO, AO 3 2.5 2 enso-index 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 enso 3.4 -index - 1996 to 1999-1.5 1996 1997 1998 1999 Bob Tisdale Bob Tisdale Bob Tisdale ENSO mechanisms animation http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geoanimations/animations/26_ninonina.html
More informationWeather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
More informationThe biological importance of the major ocean currents
The biological importance of the major ocean currents Squid and the western boundary currents Illex illecebrosus, the short-finned squid Squid use the Gulf Stream to facilitate their migration. The center
More informationName: Date: Hour: Comparing the Effects of El Nino & La Nina on the Midwest (E4.2c)
Purpose: Comparing the Effects of El Nino & La Nina on the Midwest (E4.2c) To compare the effects of El Nino and La Nina on the Midwest United States. Background Knowledge: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation
More informationSpatial dynamics of small pelagic fish in the California Current system on the regime time-scale. Parallel processes in other species-ecosystems.
PICES/GLOBEC Symposium Honolulu, Hawaii April 19-21, 2006 Spatial dynamics of small pelagic fish in the California Current system on the regime time-scale. Parallel processes in other species-ecosystems.
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationAMOC Impacts on Climate
AMOC Impacts on Climate Rong Zhang GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA Paleo-AMOC Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA May 24, 2016 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Kuklbrodt et al. 2007 McManus et al.,
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationWinter. Here s what a weak La Nina usually brings to the nation with tempseraures:
2017-2018 Winter Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2017-2018. El Nino /
More informationPotential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS)
Potential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) Sang-Ki Lee 1, Yanyun Liu 1 and Barbara Muhling 2 1 CIMAS-University of Miami and AOML-NOAA 2 Princeton University and
More informationHow Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK
Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke
More informationEl Niño Update Impacts on Florida
Current Issues in Emergency Management (CIEM) Sessions 1 &2 October 12 th and 26 th, 2006 Florida Division of Emergency Management Tallahassee, Florida El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Bart Hagemeyer
More informationPlease be ready for today by:
Please be ready for today by: 1. HW out for a stamp 2. Paper and pencil/pen for notes 3. Be ready to discuss what you know about El Nino after you view the video clip What is El Nino? El Nino Basics El
More informationPacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ):
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2015-2016. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
More informationClimate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview
Climate Variability and Change Past, Present and Future An Overview Dr Jim Salinger National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Auckland, New Zealand INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY
More informationTHE ATMOSPHERE IN MOTION
Funding provided by NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Project THE ATMOSPHERE IN MOTION Basic Climatology Oklahoma Climatological Survey Factor 1: Our Energy Source Hi, I m the Sun! I provide 99.9999+
More informationWebsite Lecture 3 The Physical Environment Part 1
Website http://websites.rcc.edu/halama Lecture 3 The Physical Environment Part 1 1 Lectures 3 & 4 1. Biogeochemical Cycling 2. Solar Radiation 3. The Atmosphere 4. The Global Ocean 5. Weather and Climate
More informationCurrent and future climate of the Cook Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Penrhyn Pukapuka Nassau Suwarrow Rakahanga Manihiki N o r t h e r n C o o k I s l a nds S o u t h e Palmerston r n C o o k I s l
More informationLecture 28: Observed Climate Variability and Change
Lecture 28: Observed Climate Variability and Change 1. Introduction This chapter focuses on 6 questions - Has the climate warmed? Has the climate become wetter? Are the atmosphere/ocean circulations changing?
More informationEarth Science Lesson Plan Quarter 2, Week 6, Day 1
Earth Science Lesson Plan Quarter 2, Week 6, Day 1 1 Outcomes for Today Standard Focus: Earth Sciences 5.f students know the interaction of wind patterns, ocean currents, and mountain ranges results in
More informationATMOSPHERIC MODELLING. GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13
ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13 Agenda for February 3 Assignment 3: Due on Friday Lecture Outline Numerical modelling Long-range forecasts Oscillations
More information6. What has been the most effective erosive agent in the climate system? a. Water b. Ice c. Wind
Multiple Choice. 1. Heinrich Events a. Show increased abundance of warm-water species of planktic foraminifera b. Show greater intensity since the last deglaciation c. Show increased accumulation of ice-rafted
More informationlecture 11 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part II
lecture 11 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part II SYSTEM MEMORY: OCEANIC WAVE PROPAGATION ASYMMETRY BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN The atmosphere and ocean are not symmetrical in their responses
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationGlobal Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather
Global Climate Patterns and Their Impacts on North American Weather By Julie Malmberg and Jessica Lowrey, Western Water Assessment Introduction This article provides a broad overview of various climate
More informationImpacts of Climate on the Corn Belt
Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Great Lakes Crop Summit 2015 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool
More informationObserved Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
More informationHere s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
More informationLecture 8: Natural Climate Variability
Lecture 8: Natural Climate Variability Extratropics: PNA, NAO, AM (aka. AO), SAM Tropics: MJO Coupled A-O Variability: ENSO Decadal Variability: PDO, AMO Unforced vs. Forced Variability We often distinguish
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions
More informationThe New Normal or Was It?
The New Normal or Was It? by Chuck Coffey The recent drought has caused many to reflect upon the past and wonder what is in store for the future. Just a couple of years ago, few agricultural producers
More informationGlobal Warming is a Fact of Life
RECENT HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE AND TRADE-WIND INVERSION VARIATIONS IN HAWAI I Global Warming is a Fact of Life Tom Giambelluca Geography UH Manoa 1976-2005: 0.177 o C per decade 1906-2005: 0.074 o C per
More informationSeasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
More informationMonitoring and Prediction of Climate Extremes
Monitoring and Prediction of Climate Extremes Stephen Baxter Meteorologist, Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Deicing and Stormwater Management Conference ACI-NA/A4A Arlington, VA May 19, 2017 What
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationAn ENSO-Neutral Winter
An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook
More informationNorth Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: August 2009
North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: August 2009 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2008 through
More informationPhytoplankton. Zooplankton. Nutrients
Phytoplankton Zooplankton Nutrients Patterns of Productivity There is a large Spring Bloom in the North Atlantic (temperate latitudes remember the Gulf Stream!) What is a bloom? Analogy to terrestrial
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationAntigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
More informationSouthwest Climate Change Projections Increasing Extreme Weather Events?
Southwest Climate Change Projections Increasing Extreme Weather Events? Jeremy Weiss Climate and Geospatial Extension Scientist School of Natural Resources and the Environment University of Arizona jlweiss@email.arizona.edu
More informationClimate Changes due to Natural Processes
Climate Changes due to Natural Processes 2.6.2a Summarize natural processes that can and have affected global climate (particularly El Niño/La Niña, volcanic eruptions, sunspots, shifts in Earth's orbit,
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationClimate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What?
Climate modeling: 1) Why? 2) How? 3) What? Matthew Widlansky mwidlans@hawaii.edu 1) Why model the climate? Hawaii Fiji Sachs and Myhrvold: A Shifting Band of Rain 1 Evidence of Past Climate Change? Mean
More informationMarine Ecoregions. Marine Ecoregions. Slide 1. Robert G. Bailey. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station
Slide 1 Marine Ecoregions Robert G. Bailey Marine Ecoregions Robert G. Bailey USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station rgbailey@fs.fed.us Draft of 7/20/2006 8:44 PM Abstract: Oceans occupy some
More informationAssessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Judith Curry
Assessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes Judith Curry Overview Uncertainties in historical landfall data base Impact of modes of natural climate variability Impact of global warming
More informationAt it s most extreme very low pressure off Indonesia, every high off SA, ~8 o C difference over the Pacific and ½ m water level differential) ENSO is
This summer : El Niño (ENSO) and the NAO (Ocean/Atmosphere coupling teleconnections) A teleconnection (as used in the atmospheric sciences) refers to climate anomalies that are related across very large
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More informationFirst-Order Draft Chapter 3 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
0 Figure... Estimates of linear trends in significant wave height (cm decade - ) for the regions along the major ship routes for the global ocean for the period 0 00. Trends are shown only for the locations
More informationWinds and Global Circulation
Winds and Global Circulation Atmospheric Pressure Winds Global Wind and Pressure Patterns Oceans and Ocean Currents El Nino How is Energy Transported to its escape zones? Both atmospheric and ocean transport
More informationResearch on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China
Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting
More informationTROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS
Notes of the tutorial lectures for the Natural Sciences part by Alice Grimm Fourth lecture TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS Anomalous tropical SST Anomalous convection Anomalous latent heat source Anomalous
More informationGlobal Climate Systems
Global Climate Systems I. Earth s Climate A. Past Climate B. Present Climate and Classification 1. Climate components 2. Classification 3. Köppen Climate Classification 4. El Nino III. Global Climate Change
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationClimate Change. Unit 3
Climate Change Unit 3 Aims Is global warming a recent short term phenomenon or should it be seen as part of long term climate change? What evidence is there of long-, medium-, and short- term climate change?
More informationHistorical Changes in Climate
Historical Changes in Climate Medieval Warm Period (MWP) Little Ice Age (LIA) Lamb, 1969 Hunters in the snow by Pieter Bruegel, 1565 Retreat of the Rhone Glacier shown by comparing the drawing from 1750
More informationlecture 10 El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part I sea surface height anomalies as measured by satellite altimetry
lecture 10 El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Part I sea surface height anomalies as measured by satellite altimetry SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF ENSO In 1899, the Indian monsoon failed, leading to drought
More informationMozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationChapter 4. Understanding the Weather. Weather is short-term and caused by various air and ocean circulations
Video: Meteorologist Paul Douglas April 2013 Understanding the Weather Weather is short-term and caused by various air and ocean circulations There are natural climate cycle that cause large climate changes
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that
More informationImpacts of Long-term Climate Cycles on Alberta. A Summary. by Suzan Lapp and Stefan Kienzle
Impacts of Long-term Climate Cycles on Alberta A Summary by Suzan Lapp and Stefan Kienzle Large Scale Climate Drivers The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997] is the dominant mode of
More informationMajor climate change triggers
Major climate change triggers Variations in solar output Milankovitch cycles Elevation & distribution of continents Ocean interactions Atmospheric composition change (CO 2 and other volcanic gasses) Biological
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
More informationWeather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season
Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Cycle of El Niño Events
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
More informationWeather Elements (air masses, fronts & storms)
Weather Elements (air masses, fronts & storms) S6E4. Obtain, evaluate and communicate information about how the sun, land, and water affect climate and weather. A. Analyze and interpret data to compare
More informationClimate Variability. Andy Hoell - Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011
Climate Variability Andy Hoell - andrew_hoell@uml.edu Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011 The Earth System Earth is made of several components that individually change throughout time, interact
More informationTHE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE TELECONNECTIONS ON WINTER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEW YORK INTRODUCTION
Middle States Geographer, 2014, 47: 60-67 THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE TELECONNECTIONS ON WINTER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEW YORK Frederick J. Bloom and Stephen J. Vermette Department of Geography and Planning
More information11/24/09 OCN/ATM/ESS The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. What is the PDO? Causes of PDO Skepticism Other variability associated with PDO
11/24/09 OCN/ATM/ESS 587.. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation What is the PDO? Causes of PDO Skepticism Other variability associated with PDO The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). (+) ( ) EOF 1 of SST (+)
More informationClimate Variability Natural and Anthropogenic
Climate Variability Natural and Anthropogenic Jim Renwick NIWA Climate Research j.renwick@niwa.co.nz Climate equilibrium and climate forcings Natural forcings Anthropogenic forcings Feedbacks Natural variability
More informationThe North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact
1 The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact James W. Hurrell National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Climate Analysis Section
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationWeather & Ocean Currents
Weather & Ocean Currents Earth is heated unevenly Causes: Earth is round Earth is tilted on an axis Earth s orbit is eliptical Effects: Convection = vertical circular currents caused by temperature differences
More informationCurrent and future climate of Vanuatu
Hiu Torres Islands Vanua Lava Gaua Banks Islands Espiritu Santo Malekula Ambae Épi Maéwo Pentecost Ambrym Shepherd Islands Éfate PORT VILA South Pacific Ocean Erromango Tanna Aneityum Current and future
More informationMarine Heat Waves: A general overview and case studies in the Mediterranean and around Australia. Eric C. J. Oliver1,2
Marine Heat Waves: A general overview and case studies in the Mediterranean and around Australia Eric C. J. Oliver1,2 Matthew A. Chamberlain3, Simon J. Wotherspoon1, Neil J. Holbrook1,2 1 Institute for
More informationEl Niño / Southern Oscillation
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Student Packet 2 Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan. Packet Contents Introduction on
More informationThe Climate System and Climate Models. Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado
The Climate System and Climate Models Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado The climate system includes all components of the physical earth system that affect weather
More informationGlobal Weather Trade Winds etc.notebook February 17, 2017
Global Weather 1 north pole northern hemisphere equator southern hemisphere south pole 2 We have seasons because of the Earth's tilt The seasons are opposite in the northern and southern hemispheres winter
More informationCurrent and future climate of Vanuatu. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Hiu Torres Islands Vanua Lava Gaua Banks Islands Espiritu Santo Malekula Ambae Épi Maéwo Pentecost Ambrym Shepherd Islands Éfate
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More information[This page intentionally left blank.]
[This page intentionally left blank.] Changes in Ice Storm Frequency Across the United States Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program University of Oklahoma Carly Kovacik and Kevin Kloesel June 2014
More informationCurrent and future climate of the Marshall Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program North Pacific Ocean Bikini Enewetak Ailinginae Rongelap Rongrik Utrik Taka R a Bikar t a Ujelang R a l i k Wotto Ujae C h a Lae
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018 March 2018 was characterised by significantly higher pressure than normal to the east of New Zealand. This pressure pattern, in
More informationThe U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2018-2019 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2017-18 U. S.
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 227, May 2018 Current climate April 2018 Overall, April 2018 was characterised by lower pressure than normal over and to the southeast of New Zealand. Unlike the first three
More informationEarth s Heat Budget. What causes the seasons? Seasons
Earth s Heat Budget Solar energy and the global heat budget Transfer of heat drives weather and climate Ocean circulation A. Rotation of the Earth B. Distance from the Sun C. Variations of Earth s orbit
More informationNOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal
More informationChanging Climate and Increased Volatility What it Means for the Energy Sector in the Future April 3, 2014 Jeff Johnson, Chief Science Officer
Changing Climate and Increased Volatility What it Means for the Energy Sector in the Future April 3, 2014 Jeff Johnson, Chief Science Officer There is no doubt that the climate has changed, and it will
More informationGlobal climate change
Global climate change What is climate change? This winter was really cold! Temp difference ( C): Jan 2004 vs. Jan 2002-2003 Make your own maps at: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/maps/ 1 What
More informationTHE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND
THE STUDY OF NUMBERS AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER PART OF THAILAND Aphantree Yuttaphan 1, Sombat Chuenchooklin 2 and Somchai Baimoung 3 ABSTRACT The upper part of Thailand
More informationNortheast River Forecast Center s
Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions
More informationLesson Overview. Climate. Lesson Overview. 4.1 Climate
Lesson Overview 4.1 THINK ABOUT IT When you think about climate, you might think of dramatic headlines: Hurricane Katrina floods New Orleans! or Drought parches the Southeast! But big storms and seasonal
More information