ILLINOIS WATER AND CLIMATE SUMMARY
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1 ILLINOIS WATER AND CLIMATE SUMMARY October 9 Illinois State Water Survey 2204 Griffith Drive, Champaign, IL Tel (217) Fax (217) October 9 Overview (Bob Scott) Temperatures in Illinois during October were well below average (the seventh coolest October since 1895), and precipitation was well above average (the second wettest October since 1895). Soil moisture within the top 40 inches of soil was well above the long-term statewide average. Mean streamflows were above median values. Shallow groundwater levels were above long-term average depths. Temperatures across Illinois (Figure 1) for October were well below average (a -4.8-degree departure). Crop Reporting District (CRD) temperatures ranged from 4.0 degrees below average (east and southeast) to 5.9 degrees below average (west). Although October s temperatures were quite cool, the 49.8º F average across the state was more than 4 degrees warmer than the coolest October on record (45.7º F in 1925). Precipitation amounts for Illinois in October were well above average (Figure 1). The statewide average of 8.88 inches represented a 5.96-inch surplus or 305 percent of average for the month. The west-southwest CRD received the greatest amount of rainfall, inches (397 percent of average), while the northwest CRD recorded the smallest rainfall total with 6.83 inches (238 percent of average). October 9 ended just shy of the wettest October on record for Illinois, 9.23 inches in Nevertheless, precipitation totals in CRDs 6 through 8 recorded the wettest October on record. Soil moisture conditions in the 0- to 40-inch (0- to 100-centimeter) layer in Illinois at the end of October were above normal in all layers across the state (Figure 1). Mean provisional streamflow statewide was above the median flow in October, 825 percent of median (Figure 1). Rivers throughout Illinois recorded monthly mean discharges ranging from above normal to much above normal for October. The Illinois River, the Mississippi River below the Des Moines River, and the Ohio River at Cairo exceeded or were approaching local flood stages by October 31. Water surface levels at the end of October were below full pool/target operating level at one of 32 reporting reservoirs. At the end of October, Rend Lake was 4.0 feet above spillway level, Lake Shelbyville was 3.4 feet above seasonal target level, and Carlyle Lake was 4.9 feet above seasonal target level. Lake Michigan s mean level remains below the long-term average. Statewide, shallow groundwater levels were above normal with an average departure of +5.3 feet. Combined with the change in normal monthly groundwater levels between October and November, a 3.6-foot increase in departures from last month was observed (Figure 1). Levels averaged 3.6 feet higher than September levels and were approximately 3.6 feet above October levels of last year. Every station except Crystal Lake in McHenry County reported above normal water levels compared with the previous month and year. Figure 1. Statewide departures from normal Note: The WARM Network maps and extended network descriptions appear in the January and July issues. Water and Atmospheric Resources Monitoring Program Illinois State Water Survey Institute of Natural Resource Sustainability University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Contact Bob Scott: (217) , rwscott1@illinois.edu
2 Weather/Climate Information (Jim Angel and Bob Scott) Temperatures across Illinois for October were much below normal (Figure 2 and Table 1). The warmest temperature reported in Illinois for the month was 80º F in Cairo (Alexander County) on October 2. The coldest temperature for the month was 23º F in Elizabeth (Jo Daviess County) on October 11. Based on preliminary data, this was the seventh coolest October, fifth coolest August October (three months), ninth coolest May October (six months) and 15th coolest November October (12 months) since Precipitation for October was much above normal statewide (Figure 2 and Table 1). Mt. Olive (Macoupin County) reported the highest one-day precipitation of 4.86 inches on October 9, and Jerseyville (Jersey County) reported the highest monthly total of inches. Based on preliminary data, this was the second wettest October, third wettest August October (three months), wettest May October (six months), and second wettest November October (12 months) since Severe weather was not reported across Illinois in October. Illinois Climate Network (ICN) Data. Average daily wind speeds across Illinois for October (Figure 3) ranged from 3.8 mph at Dixon Springs to 9.0 mph at Monmouth. St. Charles reported the highest wind gust for the month, 43 mph on October 6. The prevailing wind direction for the month was south-southeasterly in central Illinois and southwesterly in both far northern and far southern Illinois. Wind speeds in excess of 8 mph during the month varied from 53 hours at Kilbourne to 402 hours at Monmouth. (October has 744 hours.) Average air temperatures in September ranged from 46 F at DeKalb and Freeport to 54 F at Dixon Springs. Solar radiation totals in October continued a seasonal decline, ranging from 215 Mega-Joules per meter squared (MJ/m 2 ) at Freeport to 315 MJ/m 2 at Rend Lake. Similarly, potential evapotranspiration observations decreased and varied from 1.4 inches at Freeport to 2.4 inches at Fairfield. Soil temperatures in Illinois maximized during October and ranged from 51 F at Big Bend to 59 F at Dixon Springs (4-inch level) and from 52 F in Big Bend and DeKalb to nearly 63 F at Rend Lake (8-inch level). Extended climate outlooks issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center for November call for a slight chance of above normal temperatures in far northwestern Illinois. Otherwise, long-range outlooks for November and for November January call for equal chances of above, below, and normal precipitation statewide. Figure 2. Illinois temperature and precipitation during October 9 2
3 Crop Reporting District Table 1. Illinois Precipitation (inches) and Temperature (ºF) by Crop Reporting District Oct 09 Amount Last Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months Last 12 Months % Temp Aug 09- % Temp May 09- % Temp Nov 08- % Avg Dev Oct 09 Avg Dev Oct 09 Avg Dev Oct 09 Avg Northwest Northeast West Central East West-southwest East-southeast Southwest Southeast State Average Note: Data are provisional. Complete, quality-controlled data are available about six months after a given month. Temp Dev Soil Moisture Information (Bob Scott) Precipitation in Illinois during October was well above average statewide. Consequently, soil moisture was above normal near the surface (Figure 4). In the 0- to 6-inch layer, values ranged from 124 percent of normal at Dixon Springs to 177 percent at Perry. Conditions in the 6- to 20-inch layer were more variable and ranged from 117 percent at Springfield to more than percent at Monmouth and in parts of southwestern and southeastern Illinois. Deeper layers were wet as well. The 20- to 40-inch layer soil moisture ranged from about 103 percent at Springfield and East Peoria to more than percent at Monmouth and in southeastern Illinois. Values in the 40- to 72-inch layer ranged from the only dry observation in the state, 71 percent at Freeport, to more than percent in eastern and southeastern Illinois. Overall, soil moisture in Illinois at the end of October continued to be above normal (Figure 1). Compared to conditions at the end of September, soil moisture in Illinois at the end of October increased substantially at some sites statewide (Table 2). Due to very heavy rains on October 30, soil moisture in the 0- to 6-inch layer increased by 140 percent at Belleville, 96 percent at Champaign and Stelle, and 55 percent at Bondville. Changes in the 6- to 20-inch layer included increases of 62 percent at Belleville and 35 to 40 percent at Stelle, Perry, and Olney. Perry s soil moisture in the 20- to 40-inch layer increased by 18 percent. Conversely, changes of 12 percent or less were observed in all layers at Freeport, East Peoria, Fairfield, and Dixon Springs. 3
4 7 Average Wind Speed (mph) Average Wind Direction (deg) Hours Wind Speed Above 8 mph Average Temperature (deg F) Total Solar Radiation (MJ/m*m) Total Potential Evap. (in) Average 4 Inch Soil Temperature (deg F) Average 8 Inch Soil Temperature (deg F) Figure 3. October monthly averages and totals as collected by the Illinois Climate Network 4
5 0-6 inch Soil Layer 6-20 inch Soil Layer inch Soil Layer inch Soil Layer Figure 4. November 1 observed percent-of-normal soil moisture based on mean 5
6 Location Table 2. Soil Moisture in Various Layers on November 1, 9 Nov (inches) Change from Oct 1 (%) Nov (inches) Change from Oct 1 (%) Nov (inches) Change from Oct 1 (%) Freeport (NW) DeKalb (NE) Monmouth (W) East Peoria (C) Stelle (E) Champaign (E) Bondville (E) Perry (WSW) Springfield (WSW) Brownstown (ESE) Olney (ESE) Belleville (SW) Carbondale (SW) Ina (SE) Fairfield (SE) Dixon Springs (SE) Surface Water Information (Bill Saylor and Vern Knapp) River and stream discharge and stage data are obtained from gaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) or the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). The USGS gaging station network is supported, in part, by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources Office of Water Resources, Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS), and the USACE. Provisional discharge data are obtained from the USGS. Table 3 lists the provisional peak stage for the current month compared to flood stage at selected streamgaging stations located on the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio Rivers. The peak stage is determined from the daily morning readings posted by the National Weather Service and/or the USACE. The Illinois River, the Mississippi River below the Des Moines River, and the Ohio River at Cairo exceeded or were approaching local flood stages by October 31. Provisional monthly mean flows for 26 streamgaging stations located throughout Illinois are shown in Table 4. Mean values posted by the USGS are listed if available; otherwise, daily mean discharge data posted by the USGS are used to estimate the mean flow for the month. Long-term mean flows for each month are published by the USGS. The month s median flow for each station listed in Table 4 was determined by ranking the October mean flow for each year of record, and selecting the middle value, 50 percent exceedence probability. The statewide percent of historical mean flow and percent of historical median flow are calculated by dividing the sum of the average flows this month at stations in Table 4 by the sum of the historical mean and median flows calculated for the month, respectively, at the same stations. This method is intended to weight individual observations proportionately in the aggregate comparison. (The Illinois River and Rock River stations are excluded from the statewide calculation because other rivers listed in Table 4 contribute to their flow.) Mean provisional flow statewide was much above the median value for October (825 percent of the median) and above the long-term mean for the month (approximately 270 percent of the mean). Monthly mean streamflow conditions throughout Illinois, as represented by Table 4 stations, ranged from above normal to much above normal in October. The October 9 monthly mean streamflow for the Cache River at Forman was the highest monthly mean flow observed for October in the period of record at that gage. The October 9 monthly mean flow for the Big Muddy River at Plumfield was the highest for October since the construction of Rend Lake upstream. 6
7 River Station River Illinois mile* Table 3. Peak Stages for Major Rivers during October 9 Flood stage (feet)* Peak stage (feet)** Date Morris La Salle Peoria Havana Beardstown Hardin Mississippi Dubuque Keokuk Quincy Grafton St. Louis Chester Thebes Ohio Cairo Notes: * River mile and flood stage from River Stages in Illinois: Flood and Damage Data, Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources, August 4 (and Addendum, February 7). ** Peak stage based on daily a.m. readings, not instantaneous peak. Stage data obtained from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Water-Supply Lakes and Major Reservoirs. Table 5 lists reservoirs in Illinois, their normal pool or target water surface elevation, and other data related to observed variations in water surface elevations. Reservoir levels are obtained from a network of cooperating reservoir operators who are contacted each month by ISWS staff for the current water levels. Reservoir levels are reported in terms of their difference from normal pool (or target level). The average of the month-end readings for the period of record is reported in terms of the difference from normal pool or target level (column 6 of Table 5), and the number of years of record for each reservoir also is given (column 7). Most reservoirs serve as public water supplies, with the exceptions noted in the last column. Water levels reported for the end of October were higher than one month earlier at all but one of 31 reservoirs for which observations were reported both months. Water levels reported for the end of October were at or above normal pool or spillway level at 31 of 32 reservoirs. (Sparta Reservoir was slightly below full pool.) Reports of higher peak lake levels one to three days prior to the monthly report value were common, reflecting significant late October precipitation. Note also that some observers do not measure or report lake levels higher than full pool (spillway level) during overflow conditions. Major Reservoirs. Compared to water levels at the end of September, Rend Lake level was 2.5 feet higher at the end of October, Lake Shelbyville was 3.4 feet higher, and Carlyle Lake level was 4.7 feet higher. At the end of October, Rend Lake was 4.0 feet above spillway level, Lake Shelbyville was 3.4 feet above seasonal target level, and Carlyle Lake was 4.9 feet above seasonal target level. Great Lakes. Current month mean and end-of-month values are provisional and are relative to International Great Lakes Datum The October mean level for Lake Michigan was feet, compared to a mean level of feet in October 8. The long-term average lake level for October is feet, based on data. Historically, the lowest mean level for Lake Michigan in October occurred in 1964 at feet, and the highest level occurred in 1986 at feet. The month-end level of Lake Michigan was feet. 7
8 Table 4. Provisional Mean Flows, October 9 Drainage Years 9 Long-term flows Percent Days of area of mean flow Mean* Median chance of data this Station (sq mi) record (cfs) (cfs) (cfs) Flow condition exceedence month Rock River at Rockton above normal Rock River near Joslin above normal Pecatonica River at Freeport much above normal 5 31 Green River near Geneseo much above normal 6 31 Edwards River near New Boston much above normal 5 31 Kankakee River at Momence above normal Iroquois River near Chebanse above normal Fox River at Dayton much above normal 7 31 Vermilion River at Pontiac much above normal 6 31 Spoon River at Seville much above normal 9 31 LaMoine River at Ripley much above normal 8 31 Bear Creek near Marceline much above normal 5 31 Mackinaw River near Congerville much above normal 6 31 Salt Creek near Greenview much above normal 3 31 Sangamon River at Monticello much above normal 5 31 South Fork Sangamon near Rochester much above normal 7 31 Illinois River at Valley City 26, ,950 12, above normal Macoupin Creek near Kane much above normal 4 31 Vermilion River near Danville much above normal 7 31 Kaskaskia River at Vandalia above normal Shoal Creek near Breese much above normal 3 31 Embarras River at Ste. Marie much above normal Skillet Fork at Wayne City much above normal 4 31 Little Wabash below Clay City much above normal 3 31 Big Muddy at Plumfield ~ much above normal 3 27 Cache River at Forman much above normal 1 31 Notes: Source streamflow data is obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey. N/A = not available. Much below normal flow = % chance of exceedence. Below normal flow = 70-90% chance of exceedence. Normal flow = 30-70% chance of exceedence. Above normal flow = 10-30% chance of exceedence. Much above normal flow = 0-10% chance of exceedence. *As reported in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Data, Illinois, Water Year 8. 8
9 Table 5. Reservoir Levels in Illinois, October 9 Current level Average September Normal pool difference from Monthly difference from Years reported or target normal or target change normal or target of pumpage Reservoir County level (feet) (feet) (feet) (feet) record (million gallons) Altamont Effingham Bloomington McLean No pumpage Canton Fulton Carlinville Macoupin Carlyle (1) Clinton N/A Coulterville Randolph N/A N/A N/A Decatur (1,3) Macon ,013.6 Evergreen (4) Woodford Glenn Shoals (2) Montgomery w/hillsboro Greenfield Greene Highland Madison Hillsboro (2) Montgomery Jacksonville (2) Morgan N/A N/A w/mauvaise Terre Kinkaid Jackson Lake of Egypt Williamson N/A Mattoon Coles w/paradise Mauvaise Terre (2) Morgan N/A N/A no meter Mt. Olive (new) Macoupin N/A w/mt. Olive (old) Mt. Olive (old) Macoupin Nashville (3) Washington Pana Christian N/A N/A N/A Paradise Coles Paris (east) Edgar Paris (west) Edgar w/paris (east) Pinckneyville Perry Pittsfield Pike Raccoon (1) Marion N/A N/A Rend Franklin N/A Salem (3) Marion Shelbyville (1) Shelby Not PWS Sparta (3) Randolph Spring (4) McDonough Springfield (1,3) Sangamon Taylorville Christian Vermilion (4) Vermilion Virginia Cass Not PWS Notes: Normal pool and target level datum is NGVD Current levels reported represent water surface levels at the end of the month, not the monthly average. Average difference from normal or target level is the arithmetic average of reported month-end values for the period of record indicated. Years of record = total number of monthly readings included in month-end average. Total period of record may be longer. Not PWS = not a public water supply. N/A = not available. (1) Target operating level may vary. Seasonal target levels this month represent November 1 values. (2) Instrumentation not available to measure height of water elevation above spillway. (3) Natural inflow can be supplemented by other sources. (4) Normal pool elevations have changed during period of record reported. 9
10 Groundwater Information (Ken Hlinka) Comparison to Average Levels. Shallow groundwater levels in 16 observation wells, which are remote from pumping centers, were above average for the month. October levels were 5.3 feet above normal and ranged from 1.6 feet to 12.5 feet above normal levels (Table 6). Comparison to Previous Month. Shallow groundwater levels were above those of last month. Levels averaged 3.6 feet above and ranged from 0.7 feet to 8.9 feet above levels of last month. Comparison to Same Month, Previous Year. Shallow groundwater levels in October were above levels measured one year ago. Levels averaged 3.6 feet above and ranged from 0.5 feet below to 7.3 feet higher than during October 8. Table 6. Month-End Shallow Groundwater Level Data Sites, October 9 Number Well name County Well depth (feet) This month s reading (depth to water, feet) Deviation from 15-year Period of avg. level record avg. (feet) (feet) Previous month (feet) Previous year (feet) 1 Galena JoDaviess Mt. Morris Ogle Crystal Lake McHenry Cambridge Henry *23.42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 5 Fermi Lab DuPage Good Hope McDonough Snicarte Mason Coffman Pike Greenfield Greene Janesville Cumberland St. Peter Fayette SWS #2 St. Clair Boyleston Wayne Sparta Randolph SE College Saline Dixon Springs Pope Bondville Champaign Notes: * Data not used in analysis N/A - Data not available. Averages Addendum (Nancy Westcott) Imperial Valley Precipitation. Precipitation for October 9 was heavy and variable (Figure 5a). Monthly gage totals were greatest in the western region, and precipitation was lightest in the eastern portion of the network. Individual gage amounts ranged from 9.70 inches at Site #19 to 6.98 inches at Site #13. The , 30-year average precipitation amounts for October at Havana and Mason City are 2.86 and 2.73 inches, respectively. The October 9 network average of 8.08 inches is about 337 percent of the 17-year (1992-8) IVWA October network average of 2.40 inches. Cook County Precipitation. October 9 precipitation amounts (Figure 5b) were very heavy. The greatest precipitation was found in the southern region of the county, and the lightest precipitation was in the northwestern portion of the network. Precipitation values ranged from 9.20 inches at Site #17 (Alsip) to 5.69 inches at Site #1 (Northbrook). The October 9 network average of 7.29 inches is about 242 percent of the 20-year (1989 8) October network average of 3.01 inches. 10
11 a. Imperial Valley b. Cook County Figure 5. Long-term raingage network precipitation totals (inches) for October 9 Data sources for information in this publication include the following: CPC - Climate Predication Center, ISWS - Illinois State Water Survey, MRCC - Midwestern Regional Climate Center, NCDC - National Climate Data Center, NWS - National Weather Service, USACE - U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, USGS - U.S. Geological Survey, WARM - Water and Atmospheric Resources Monitoring Program, 11
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