Kootenai Basin Water Supply Update and Sturgeon Flow Augmentation Kootenai Valley Resource Initiative

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Georgiana Cobb
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1 Kootenai Basin Water Supply Update and Sturgeon Flow Augmentation Kootenai Valley Resource Initiative Greg Hoffman Fishery Biologist / Kootenai River Basin Flood Engineer Libby Dam 15 May 2017 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG

2 Percent of Average Precip 10/1/2016 4/2/2017 Average to Above-average precipitation fell in the basin over the winter

3 Precipitation by Month October November December January February March

4 Bonners Ferry Records Record October Precip Accumulated Precipitation since October, 2016 Record February Precip 3 rd wettest March Record 27.6 Average Oct. Apr.

5 Soil Moisture

6 Temperatures by Month October November December January February March

7 Climate Outlooks April-May-June

Flow (kcfs) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 85 Libby Dam Inflow- Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the

8 Flow (kcfs) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 85 Libby Dam Inflow- Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph are provisional and are intended to provide an estimate of inflow to Libby Dam. How to read this graph: 75th percentile means that on that day, 75 percent of the traces were below this value. The median points indicate the values such that half of the traces were above and half were below The River Forecast Center public site for Libby Dam Forecasts is: 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed Bars Indicate 5th and 95th percentiles exeedances /1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 Date 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1

Elevation (ft) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 2470 2460 2450 2440 2430 2420 2410 2400 2390 2380 2370 2360 2350 2340 2330 2320 2310 2300 2290 2280 2270 2260 2250 2240 2230 2220 2210

9 Elevation (ft) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/ th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed Bars Indicate 5th and 95th percentiles Lake Koocanusa Elevation - Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph are provisional and are intended to provide an estimate of Libby Dam forebay elevation (Lake Koocanusa). How to read this graph: 75th percentile means that on that day, 75 percent of the traces were below this value. The median points indicate the values such that half of the traces were above and half were below. The River Forecast Center public site for Libby Dam Forecasts is: 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 Date 10/1

10 Flow (kcfs) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 40 Libby Dam Outflow - Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph are provisional and are intended to provide an estimate of outflow from Libby Dam. How to read this graph: 75th percentile means that on that day, 75 percent of the traces were below this value. The median points indicate the values such that half of the traces were above and half were below The River Forecast Center public site for Libby Dam Forecasts is: 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed Bars Indicate 5th and 95th percentiles exeedances /1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 Date 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1

Elevation (ft) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 70 Bonners Ferry Stage Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest

11 Elevation (ft) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 70 Bonners Ferry Stage Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph are provisional and are intended to provide an estimate of river stages at Bonners Ferry. How to read this graph: 75th percentile means that on that day, 75 percent of the traces were below this value. The median points indicate the values such that half of the traces were above and half were below. The River Forecast Center public site for Bonners Ferry Forecasts is: 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed Flood Stage Bars Indicate 5th and 95th percentiles 30 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 Date 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1

12 Bonners Ferry Stage (ft) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/ Maximum April-August Bonners Ferry Stage - Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph is provisional and is intended to provide an estimate of the maximum river stage at Bonners Ferry. How to read this graph: The vertical lines indicate probabilities for the maximum stage this season at Bonners Ferry. For example, the line at 20% intersects with the curve at an elevation which is exceeded in 20% of the traces (model runs). A flat tail indicates that many runs have forecast peaks lower than an already observed peak. The River Forecast Center public site for Bonners Ferry Forecasts is: Maximum Bonners Ferry Elevation % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Probability of Exceedence

13 Kootenai River Temperature and Flow Pre-Libby Dam vs Post-Libby Dam Temperature (C) Q (kcfs) /1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 Copeland C '67-'72 Bonners Ferry Q '63-'72 Bonners Ferry C '94-'03 Bonners Ferry Q '94-'03

15 Flow (kcfs) Modeled using current ESP traces as of 05/10/17 40 Libby Dam Outflow - Probability Chart Corps of Engineers Projections Based on the 67 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Traces Issued by the Northwest River Forecast Center, National Weather Service The data presented in this graph are provisional and are intended to provide an estimate of outflow from Libby Dam. How to read this graph: 75th percentile means that on that day, 75 percent of the traces were below this value. The median points indicate the values such that half of the traces were above and half were below The River Forecast Center public site for Libby Dam Forecasts is: 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed Bars Indicate 5th and 95th percentiles exeedances /1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 Date 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1

16 Questions?

Elevation (ft) 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed

Elevation (ft) 50th to 75th Percentile 25th to 50th Percentile Median Observed 2470 Lake Koocanusa Elevation - Probability Chart Elevation (ft) 2460 2450 2440 2430 2420 2410 2400 2390 2380 2370 2360 2350 2340 2330 2320 2310 2300 The data presented in this graph are provisional and