CHAPTER 6 SUMMARV, m a in FINDIN6S AND C0NCUL5I0NS

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CHAPTER 6 SUMMARV, m a in FINDIN6S AND C0NCUL5I0NS 6.1; AFRICA AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Africa was the world's first continent where not only man evolved but also the human civilization.

It is also the hottest continent having 2 / ^^ area which lies in tropics and has the world's largest deserts of Sahara.

1 CHAPTER 6 SUMMARV, m a in FINDIN6S AND C0NCUL5I0NS 6.1; AFRICA AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Africa was the world's first continent where not only man evolved but also the human civilization. It is the largest continent of the world like a massive island, surrounded by seas from all the sides. It is also the hottest continent having 2 / ^^ area which lies in tropics and has the world's largest deserts of Sahara. It ranks third in population among the continents of the world, behind Asia and Europe, and second largest continent after Asia in area. About 6% of Africa's total production and 60% of its export earnings come from farming. Africa remained the 'Darkest Contingent' until the 19 *' century, when it was discovered by European traders and missionaries. Africa is rich in mineral wealth (crude oil of Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Gabon and Angola about 10% of the world's crude oil production). Southern Africa is rich in other minerals e.g. Zambia and Zaire having copper, Botswana having gold, Zimbabwe - asbestos. South Africa diamonds, precious stones, gold and uranium. South Africa alone produces two-thirds of the world's gold and gem-quality diamonds. Most of the African countries are stiu in the initial stage of development depending mostly on agriculture, cattle- wealth, primary products and mineral wealth. South Africa stands out as exceptionally developed country in industrial and technological progress and is the richest country of the African continent. Botsw ana's per capital national incom e is 22

also very high therefore both the countries exceptionally belong to the group of 'upper middle income countries' of the world. Zimbabwe in recent years, is coining up as newly industrialized country.

South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe, which are interdependent in their economic and trade relations (and were under the central command of South Africa before their independence) have been selected

2 also very high therefore both the countries exceptionally belong to the group of 'upper middle income countries' of the world. Zimbabwe in recent years, is coining up as newly industrialized country. Out of the Southern region of Africa, only three countries viz. South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe, which are interdependent in their economic and trade relations (and were under the central command of South Africa before their independence) have been selected for the research project; because their trade relations with India are established for over a long period of about one century. Due to freedom of South Africa from the racist domination of the whites; the relations of India (Non- Aligned Movement) with Nelson Mandela's South Africa have become 'very special'^ and co-operative. India supported Zimbabwe's freedom struggle during the period of cold war, India also took a firm stand to support independence of Botswana from the clutches of the racist government of South Africa. Due to friendly and time-tested relations of these countries and India; the recent trends in Indo-South African regional trade reveal a great potential and promise of various gains of economic cooperation and trade relations, reciprocally beneficial to both the parties. India has special sentimental regard for South Africa because a large number of Indian have settled in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana for over a century and Mahatma Gandhi- the founder father of India-started his non-violent movement against racism, colonial exploitation and freedom in Durban- w hich is After the nuclear test done by India in May, 1998 and the imposition of various sanctions initiated by US Western European Countries and Japan; South Africa has taken a firm and friendly stand to support India s genuine needs of her security. 224

and Swaziland. Out of the six countries, the first three countries have the major shares in World Trade, as well as, trade with India. 6.2;

3 Indianised business capital city of South Africa. Southern Africa also has established a regional cooperation similar to EEC, having made tariff free customs union and the members of this union are South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. Out of the six countries, the first three countries have the major shares in World Trade, as well as, trade with India. 6.2; THE PROFILES OF THE THREE SELECTED COUNTRIES 6.2.1: ZIMBABWE Zimbabwe (previously known as South Rhodesia) is at the north of South Africa having a dozen national parks like Victoria, Kyle, Rhodes etc., which are world's attractive tourist centres. Basically it is an agricultural country having rich mineral wealth; of gold, asbestos, coal, nickel, chromate, copper. It produces coffee, cotton, sugar, sunflower, tobacco and wheat. 98% people belonging to 'Shona' and ' Karanga' tribes having two linguist groups of 'Shonas' and 'Ndebele' belonging to north and south regions respectively. Only 2% people belong to white who own large estates of plantations and agricultural land. Population of Zimbabwe is around 10 m illion : BOTSWANA Botswana is landlocked with an area of 5.2 lakhs sq. metres and a population of only 1 million. Previously it was known as Bechuanaland. Its economy totally depends on South Africa because it earns its foreign exchange of cattle stock, meat, hides and skins, minerals routed to Europe and South Africa and obtains all the essential im ports via South Africa. It has a very meagre 225

rainfall therefore people greet each other by saying 'Pula' i.e. Rain, and the currency of Botswana is also called 'Pula'. Cattle herding is the main job of the tribal people.

The country is very sparsely populated. Young people are compelled to migrate to South Africa for jobs.

4 rainfall therefore people greet each other by saying 'Pula' i.e. Rain, and the currency of Botswana is also called 'Pula'. Cattle herding is the main job of the tribal people. There are very few cities (not more than 7) and the average population of all the cities is around 0 to 40 thousand only. The 90% population is rural and depending on agriculture and cattle herding. The country is very sparsely populated. Young people are compelled to migrate to South Africa for jobs. Per capita income is very high yet majority of people sufferunemployment, from backwardness, poverty and a low quality of life. Botswana is very rich in its mineral deposits of gold, diamonds, nickel, copper. Its exports consist cattle carcasses, hides and skins, manganese ore, butter fat, diamonds, sheep, goats and it imports cereals, petro-products, textiles, sugar and automobiles. 72% of the land is used for grazing of cattle. The length of the railroads is only about 400 miles (640 km). There are no manufacturing units in the country. The income distribution is very uneven which is the main cause of country's m ass-poverty. 6.2.: SOUTH AFRICA South Africa has an area of 1. million sq.kms. during 19 ^ century, it was like an empire spreadover Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Lesotho and the present territory of South Africa, which was ruled by the whites, who explored it and exploited it fully. Prior to the construction of the Suez Canal, Ports of South Africa viz. Cape and Durban were the most important trading centres connecting the eastern world to the w estern industrialised world. 2/^^ population 226

5 b e lo n g s to 'Bantu and Zulu tribes'. 1/5^^ b e lo n g s to white a n d th e r e st o f p o p u la t io n b e lo n g s to Indians and Asians. S o u th A fr ic a h a s c o m p a r a tiv e ly d o n e a lo t o f p r o g r e s s in a g r ic u ltu r e a l te c h n iq u e s a n d m e c h a n is e d fa r m in g, a s w e ll a s, in s o p h is tic a te d t e c h n o lo g ie s a n d m a n u fa c tu r e. It is a ls o v e r y r ic h in m in e r a l w e a lth h a v in g v e r y fa b u lo u s e a r n in g s fr o m th e e x p o r t o f g o ld a n d d ia m o n d s. It is th e o n ly o n e in d u s t r ia liz e d n a tio n o f th e A fr ic a n c o n tin e n t. It p r o d u c e s n e a r ly 60% o f e n tir e A fr ic a 's e le c tr ic p o w e r a n d h a s le s s th a n 7% o f th e c o n tin e n ta l p o p u la t io n. S o u th A fr ic a n in d u s t r ie s c o n tr ib u te n e a r ly l / 4 ^ o f s h a r e o f th e N a tio n a l In c o m e. It h a s a w e ll d e v e lo p e d fin a n c ia l s y s te m. T ra d e b r in g s n e a r ly 1/*^^ s h a r e o f its n a tio n a l in c o m e. It h a s a ttr a c te d F o r e ig n d ir e c t I n v e s tm e n ts a n d M N C s o f th e e n tir e w o r ld. S o u th A fr ic a 's m a in tr a d in g p a r tn e r s are EEC, U K, U S A, a n d Jap an. D ir e c t ta x e s c o n tr ib u te m o r e th a n 54% o f th e to ta l c u r r e n t r e v e n u e o f th e a n n u a l b u d g e t. T h e m a in p r o b le m s o f th e e c o n o m y in r e c e n t y e a r s w e r e e c o n o m ic e m b a r g o e s, s a n c tio n s a n d b o y c o tt o n R a c ist S o u th A fr ic a, e x is t in g t ill , th e d e c lin e o f th e g o ld - m in in g d e p o s its, to o m u c h d e p e n d e n c e o n e x te r n a l tr a d e a n d in fla tio n. 6.; M A C R O E C O N O M IC TRENDS IN THE SELECTED COUNTRIES D U R IN G LAST 15 YEARS. 6..1: BO TSW AN A D u r in g th e y e a r , th e p o p u la t io n o f th e c o u n tr y w a s 10 la k h s w h ic h h a s r is e n to 1.5 la k h s in th e y e a r T h e 227

io n o f in d u s tr ia l in fr a s tr u c tu r e.

6 a v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h r a te o f p o p u la t io n is a b o u t.5%. s till, th e c o u n tr y is v e r y s p a r s e ly p o p u la t e d. In th e p r e v a ilin g s ix y e a r ly d e v e lo p m e n t p la n ( ) s p e c ia l e m p h a s is h a s b e e n la id o n d iv e r s ific a tio n o f e c o n o m y a n d in s ta lla t io n o f in d u s tr ia l in fr a s tr u c tu r e. D u r in g th e la s t 15 y e a r s, th e g o v e r n m e n t h a s m a in ta in e d s u r p lu s a n n u a l b u d g e t in s p it e o f th e q u a d r u p le r is e in b o th g o v e r n m e n t e x p e n d itu r e a n d g o v e r n m e n t r e v e n u e. T h e r e h a s b e e n n o m a jo r a n d s e r io u s d e p r e c ia tio n in th e e x te r n a l v a lu e o f th e 'Pula', o f fic ia l c u r r e n c y u n it. T h e e x c h a n g e r a te o f P u la h a s r e m a in e d w it h in th e r a n g e o f o n e U S $ = P u la s a n d 2.6 P u la s. B o ts w a n a d o e s n o t im p o r t fro m th e U S. Its e x c h a n g e ra te r e d u c e d to 25% in te r m s o f a B r itis h p o u n d d u r in g th e r e c e n t y e a r s. T h e d ia m o n d, w h ic h is th e m a in s o u r c e o f n a tio n a l in c o m e, n o m o r e, r e m a in s a d e p e n d a b le s o u r c e b e c a u s e o f th e d e p le tio n o f its d e p o s its. H o w e v e r in r e c e n t y e a r s, th e p r o d u c tio n o f c o p p e r a n d n ic k e l h a s g a in e d m o r e im p o r ta n c e in th e e x p o r t-e a r n in g s. T h e c o a l p r o d u c tio n in te r m s o f v a lu e h a s tr e b le d in r e c e n t y e a r s. T h e c a ttle p o p u la tio n o f B o ts w a n a is tim e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f h u m a n p o p u la tio n. T h e m e a t p r o d u c t io n is o n e o f th e p r in c ip a l s o u r c e s o f G D P, as w e ll a s, e x p o r t e a r n in g s. 68% o f th e w o r k -fo r c e is e n g a g e d in a g r ic u ltu r e. T h e n u m b e r o f e m p lo y e e s in o r g a n iz e d s e c to r b e c a m e 2.7 la k h s in ( it w a s 8 0,0 0 0 o n ly in 1 988). B y a n d la r g e, c o u n tr y 's im p o r ts e x c e e d e d its e x p o r t e a r n in g s till F rom 1988 to , th e c o u n tr y e n jo y e d m a r g in a l a n d fa v o u r a b le tr a d e b a la n c e s. B u t in th e y e a r , it h a s fa c e d th e r e c o r d d e fic it o f -P 8 5 m illio n. 228

T h e m a in p illa r s o f s tr e n g th o n th e e x p o r t fr o n t a re d ia m o n d s (P 2 8 9 9 m illio n ), c o p p e r a n d n ic k e l P 2 6 1 m illio n a n d m e a t p r o d u c ts P 161 m

7 T h e m a in p illa r s o f s tr e n g th o n th e e x p o r t fr o n t a re d ia m o n d s (P m illio n ), c o p p e r a n d n ic k e l P m illio n a n d m e a t p r o d u c ts P 161 m illio n. D ia m o n d a lo n e, b r in g s 78% o f th e c o u n tr y 's to ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s. T h e m a in tr a d in g p a r tn e r s o f B o ts w a n a are S o u th A fr ic a (h a v in g s h a r e o f 8% ) a n d th e r e m a in in g s h a r e b e lo n g in g to U K a n d EEC c o u n tr ie s. In , e a r n in g s fr o m to u r is m w e r e a lm o s t n il. In , th e n u m b e r o f fo r e ig n to u r is ts w h o v is it e d th e c o u n tr y w a s o n ly 5500, w h ic h r o s e to 4. la k h s in (E a r n in g s r o s e to P m illio n fr o m P 6 0 m illio n o f th e y e a r o f ). B o ts w a n a h a s in a d e q u a te R a ilw a y h a v in g th e le n g th o f 971 k m., o n ly. T h e p r o g r e s s o f p r im a r y, s e c o n d a r y e d u c a tio n is v e r y s lo w ; h a v in g v e r y s m a ll n u m b e r s o f s c h o o ls. T h e r e is o n ly o n e u n iv e r s it y c o lle g e in th e c o u n tr y a n d o n ly o n e p o ly te c h n ic. E x c e p t th e p r o d u c tio n o f m a iz e, w h ic h h a s r e d u c e d d u r in g th e la st 15 y e a r s; th e p r o d u c tio n o f o th e r c r o p s h a s r e m a in e d c o i^ ta n t b e c a u s e n o s p e c ia l e ffo r ts o f in tr o d u c in g n e w a g r ic u ltu r a l te c h n iq u e s h a v e b e e n in it ia te d a n d o r g a n is e d b y th e g o v e r n m e n t. T h e r e a re o n ly b a n k s a n d th e d e p o s its h a v e n e a r ly d o u b le d d u r in g r e c e n t d e c a d e. P o w e r g e n e r a tio n h a s r e m a in e d s ta g n a n t to 5 m illio n K W H th r o u g h o u t th e p e r io d o f 15 y e a r s. T h e c o u n tr y d o e s n o t h a v e la r g e s c a le in d u s tr ie s. 229

T h e p e r c e n ta g e o f u r b a n p o p u la t io n is im p r o v e d in 1991 to 25.% fr o m th a t o f 11.1% o f 1971.

T h e p e r c e n ta g e s h a r e o f a g r ic u ltu r e w h ic h w a s 11% in 1 9 8 1-8 2 r e d u c e d to 2.

8 T h e p e r c e n ta g e o f u r b a n p o p u la t io n is im p r o v e d in 1991 to 25.% fr o m th a t o f 11.1% o f T h e m a in a c tiv itie s w h ic h c o n tr ib u te la r g e s t sh a r e s in G D P are m in in g, tr a d e a n d a g r ic u ltu r e. T h e p e r c e n ta g e s h a r e o f a g r ic u ltu r e w h ic h w a s 11% in r e d u c e d to 2.9% in b u t p e r c e n ta g e sh a r e o f m in in g s e c to r r o s e fr o m 16 to 41 p e r c e n t d u r in g th e sa m e p e r io d. T h e c o u n tr y 's m a in im p o r ts are 1) f o o d, b e v e r a g e s a n d to b a c c o, 2) m a c h in e r y a n d e le c tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t, ) v e h ic le s, 4) fu e ls, 5) m e ta l p r o d u c ts e a c h h a v in g a n a v e r a g e sh a r e o f 12 to 15% o f th e to ta l im p o r t c o s t. T h e m a in e x p o r ts o f th e c o u n tr y a re d ia m o n d s (78% ) c o p p e r a n d n ic k e l a n d m e a t a n d m e a t p r o d u c ts. D u r in g , th e p e r c e n ta g e s h a r e s o f D e fe n s e a n d h o u s in g in c r e a s e d fro m 10 to 14% a n d 15 to 28% r e s p e c t iv e ly. T h e g o v e r n m e n t o f B o ts w a n a h a s n o t fa c e d th e b u d g e ta r y d e f ic its d u r in g th e r e c e n t d e c a d e. A n n u a l in fla tio n r a te s w e r e o n a n a v e r a g e a r o u n d 10% d u r in g to In th e e x c e p tio n a l t w o y e a r s v iz 1981 a n d 1 9 9, th e in fla tio n r a te s w e r e m o r e th a n 16 p e r c e n t. T h e s e c to r s w h ic h g e n e r a te e m p lo y m e n t are c o n s tr u c tio n, e le c tr ic ity, e d u c a tio n, m a n u fa c tu r in g a n d m in in g. T h e c o u n tr y h a s to im p o r t fo o d m o r e th a n 2 la k h to n n e s a n n u a lly. 20

6..2 ; ZIMBABY/E T h e a r e a o f Z im b a b w e is.9 0 la k h s sq. k m w h ic h is le s s th a n B o ts w a n a, b u t th e p o p u la t io n o f Z im b a b w e in 1 9 9 5-9 6 w a s 10.

T h e o ffic ia l c u r r e n c y is 'Z im b a b w e D o lla r ' - th e e x c h a n g e ra te b e in g U S $1 = 8.4 Z im d o lla r s.

9 6..2 ; ZIMBABY/E T h e a r e a o f Z im b a b w e is.9 0 la k h s sq. k m w h ic h is le s s th a n B o ts w a n a, b u t th e p o p u la t io n o f Z im b a b w e in w a s 10.4 m illio n w h ic h is 10 tim e s th a n th a t o f B o ts w a n a. T h e a n n u a l r a in fa ll is 28 in c h e s i.e. 710 m m w h ic h is n e a r ly 2 Vz t im e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f B o ts w a n a. T h e o ffic ia l c u r r e n c y is 'Z im b a b w e D o lla r ' - th e e x c h a n g e ra te b e in g U S $1 = 8.4 Z im d o lla r s. Z im b a b w e is fa c in g s e r io u s in fla tio n a n d s e v e r e B O P p o s itio n. T h e in fla tio n ra te in 9 0 's is m o r e th a n 18 %. G o ld is th e m a in s o u r c e o f n a tio n a l in c o m e. A s b e s to s is th e n e x t im p o r ta n t m in e r a l f o llo w e d b y n ic k e l, c o a l, c h r o m e. C a ttle s to c k a lso h a p p e n s to b e a p r im e c o n tr ib u to r to G D P a lo n g w ith a g r ic iiltu r e. T h e p r o b le m o f u n e m p lo y m e n t is th e m o s t s e r io u s o n e in th e r e g io n. T o u r is m h a s in c r e a s e d b y fo u r tim e s w it h in la s t d e c a d e. T h e n u m b e r s o f t e le p h o n e c u s to m e r s a n d r a d io o w n e r s are 2 la k h a n d 5 la k h r e s p e c t iv e ly o u r o f 100 la k h p o p u la tio n. E d u c a tio n a lly Z im b a b w e is m o r e a d v a n c e d th a n B o ts w a n a. T h ere are 2 2 la k h s tu d e n ts (1 0 la k h s e c o n d a r y a n d s tu d e n ts s tu d y in g in fo u r u n iv e r s it ie s ). T h ere are v e r y f e w q u a lifie d d o c to r s a n d d e n tis ts. T h e r a ilw a y le n g th is k m - n o c o n s id e r a b le p r o g r e s s h a s b e e n m a d e a fter in d e p e n d e n c e d u r in g la s t 20 y e a r s. D u r in g la s t d e c a d e th e r e is m o r e th a n 0% r ise in th e p r o d u c tio n o f w h e a t, s u g a r c a n e, fr u its b u t fa ll in th e p r o d u c t io n o f B a r le y, m ille ts, s o y a b e a n a n d c o ffe e b y 10 to 0%. 21

1 9 8 0-8 1 a n d 1 9 9 0-9 1 th e c o u n tr y e n jo y e d c o m fo r ta b ly s u r p lu s tr a d e b a la n c e s w it h in la s t d e c a d e. C o u n tr y 's e x p o r ts b r in g a b o u t 1/^*!

10 G o v e r n m e n t b u d g e t s w it h in th e la s t d e c a d e h a v e b u d g e ta r y d e fic its b e c a u s e o f th e r ise o f d e v e lo p m e n t a l a n d w e lfa r e e x p e n d itu r e s, as w e ll a s, b e c a u s e o f th e in fla tio n a r y p r e s s u r e s. B a r rin g o n ly 2 y e a r s v iz a n d th e c o u n tr y e n jo y e d c o m fo r ta b ly s u r p lu s tr a d e b a la n c e s w it h in la s t d e c a d e. C o u n tr y 's e x p o r ts b r in g a b o u t 1/^*! o f th e c u r r e n t r e v e n u e o f th e g o v e r n m e n t b u d g e ts. Z im b a b w e e x p o r ts g o ld, to b a c c o, a s b e s to s, f e r r o a llo y s a n d c o tto n lin t. It im p o r ts m a c h in e r y a n d v e h ic le s, p e tr o p r o d u c ts, c h e m ic a ls a n d m a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s, a s w e ll a s, m e a t a n d m e a t p r e p a r a tio n s. T h e m a in tr a d in g p a r tn e r s o f Z im b a b w e are S o u th A fr ic a, U K, U S A, G e r m a n y a n d EEC c o u n tr ie s. N e a r ly % p o p u la t io n is u r b a n, H a ra r e, th e c a p ita l c ity h a v in g 10% o f th e c o u n tr y 's p o p u la tio n. T h e c o u n tr y d u r in g 9 0 's, fa c e s p r o b le m s o f s h o r ta g e o f fo r e ig n e x c h a n g e a n d c a p ita l in v e s t m e n t, u n e m p lo y m e n t, in fla t io n a n d a d v e r s e b a la n c e o f p a y m e n ts. It is th e r e fo r e e n c o u r a g in g fo r e ig n d ir e c t in v e s t m e n t a n d p a r tn e r s h ip o f M N C s fo r s w ifte r in d u s t r ia liz a t io n a n d e x p lo it a tio n o f its u n ta p p e d m in e r a l w e a lth. 6..: SO U TH AFRICA S o u th A fr ic a h a s th e la r g e s t a rea w it h in th e S o u th A fr ic a n r e g io n. Its a rea is la k h sq. k m a n d p o p u la t io n o f m illio n ( ). T h e p o p u la t io n is h e t e r o g e n e o u s c o n s is tin g o f im m ig r a n t la b o u r fro m B o ts w a n a, Z im b a b w e, Z a m b ia, M o z a m b iq u e, a s w e ll as, fr o m A s ia n c o u n tr ie s a n d p a r tic u la r ly th e tr a d in g c o m m u n ity fro m G u jarat o f In d ia. T h e r is e in p o p u la t io n d u r in g la s t 15 y e a r s is 61%. 22

5 la k h m k w h ) w h ic h p r o v id e s in fr a s tr u c tu r a l s tr e n g th to its in d u s tr ie s, m in in g a n d n u c le a r e n e r g y. T h e g o ld h a s b r o u g h t R 2.

11 T h e p u r c h a s in g p o w e r o f S o u th A fr ic a 's R a n d h a s fa lle n b y 4-5 tim e s d u e to in fla tio n a n d b a la n c e o f p a y m e n ts p o s it io n. S o u th A fr ic a p r o d u c e s m a x im u m e le c tr ic ity (1.5 la k h m k w h ) w h ic h p r o v id e s in fr a s tr u c tu r a l s tr e n g th to its in d u s tr ie s, m in in g a n d n u c le a r e n e r g y. T h e g o ld h a s b r o u g h t R 2.2 b illio n in (16 tim e s th a n th a t o f e a r n in g s) to th e c o u n tr y. C o a l, d ia m o n d, c o p p e r, ir o n o r e, c h r o m e o r e, a s b e s to s, lim e s t o n e a n d s ilv e r... a ll h a v e b r o u g h t-b y a n d la r g e - m o r e th a n to 600% r ise in th e c o u n tr y 's e x p o r t e a r n in g s d u r in g th e la s t d e c a d e. It p r o d u c e s m o re th a n 18 d iv e r s e m in e r a l p r o d u c ts w h ic h is th e b a c k b o n e o f its e c o n o m y. T h e m in in g p r o v id e s 1 m illio n jo b s, m a n u fa c tu r in g, 1.5 m illio n, c o n s tr u c tio n, tr a d e e tc., a n o th e r 2 m illio n jo b s, th e r e s t o f th e jo b s are a v a ila b le in p r iv a te, d o m e s tic s e r v ic e s, a s w e ll a s, c o m m e r c ia l fa rm s o f th e w h it e la n d lo r d s. S o u th A fr ic a h a s th e la r g e s t n e tw o r k o f r a ilw a y w it h in th e r e g io n w h ic h jo in s th e im p o r ta n t in te r n a tio n a l p o r ts lik e C a p e, E liz a b e th a n d D u r b a n, a s w e ll as, th e n e ig h b o u r in g la n d lo c k e d c o u n tr ie s v iz. Z im b a b w e, B o ts w a n a a n d Z a m b ia. T h ere are 2 2 a ir p o r ts. R a ilw a y c o n n e c ts e a s te r n a n d w e s te r n r e g io n s o f S o u th A fr ic a a lso. P h y s ic a l q u a lity o f life in S o u th A fr ic a is th e b e s t a m o n g th e s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s. T h ere is o n e t e le p h o n e o w n e r o u t o f e v e r y 7 p e r s o n s, o n e r a d io o w n e r a m o n g fo u r p e r s o n s, o n e T V o w n e r a m o n g e v e r y 11 p e r s o n s. It h a s th e la r g e s t n u m b e r o f n e w s p a p e r a r o u n d 40. T h e p r o g r e s s o f e d u c a t io n is th e h ig h e s t w it h in th e r e g io n, to ta l n u m b e r o f s tu d e n ts b e in g 86 la k h s. T h ere a re 8 te c h n ic a l c o lle g e s a n d 12 u n iv e r s it ie s r u n a n d m a n a g e d b y th e 2

T h e n u m b e r o f d o c to r s is a r o u n d 2 5 o o o d u r in g 1 9 9 5.

12 'Whites'. M o st o f th e p r o f e s s o r s a r e s p e c ia lly b r o u g h t fr o m U S, E u r o p e a n c o u n tr ie s, U K b y p a y in g a ttr a c tiv e s a la r ie s a n d p e r k s. T h e p r o g r e s s o f e d u c a t io n d u r in g la s t 15 y e a r s is th e m o s t r a p id o n e, la y in g e m p h a s is o n q u a lity a n d q u a n tity b o th. T h e n u m b e r o f d o c to r s is a r o u n d 2 5 o o o d u r in g In c o m p a r is o n to B o ts w a n a a n d Z im b a b w e, h e a lth a n d h o s p ita l f a c ilitie s a r e b e tte r in S o u th A fr ic a b u t s t ill n o t a d e q u a te c o n s id e r in g th e h ig h e s t p e r c a p ita in c o m e o f th e c o u n tr y a n d th e 4 0 m illio n p o p u la tio n. T o u r ism in S o u th A fr ic a h a s b e e n a lw a y s a ttr a c tiv e to E u r o p e a n to u r is ts. In , th e n u m b e r o f fo r e ig n t o u r is ts in c r e a s e d t o 0 la k h s; fro m 6 la k h s o f T h ere h a s b e e n 1 tim e s r is e in th e to ta l b u r d e n o f d e b t d u r in g la s t 15 y e a r s. T h e c a ttle s to c k s o f th e c o u n tr y is a g r e a t a s s e t fo r tis G D P a n d e x p o r t e a r n in g s. S o u th A fr ic a h a s d o n e th e m a x im u m p r o g r e s s in s c ie n tific a g r ic u ltu r e, n e w te c h n iq u e s, d iv e r s ific a tio n o f c r o p - p a tte r n a n d in te n s iv e r is e in q u a lita tiv e a n d q u a n tita tiv e p r o d u c tio n p e r h e c ta r e. A n n u a l v a lu e o f a g r ic u ltu r e p r o d u c e in th e y e a r s h o t u p to R b illio n, w h ic h w a s o n ly R b illio n in T h e r e h a s b e e n 10 tim e s r is e in h o r tic u ltu r a l p r o d u c tio n d u r in g la s t 15 y e a r s a n d it h a s e n te r e d th e w o r ld 's fr u it m a r k e t b e c a u s e o f a c h ie v in g s ta n d a r d s a n d q u a lity d e m a n d e d b y b u y e r s fr o m th e m a r k e ts o f E E C, U S A a n d a d v a n c e d c o u n tr ie s. 24

n t's h u g e e x p e n d itu r e s o n D e fe n c e a n d in te r n a l s e c u r ity, e c o n o m ic s e r v ic e s, e d u c a tio n, s o c ia l s e r v ic e s a n d h e a lth a n d e n o r m o u s

13 In r e c e n t y e a r s i.e. p o s t 9 0 's, g o v e r n m e n t b u d g e t s h a v e b e e n y e a r - b y -y e a r, fa c in g s e r io u s b u d g e ta r y d e fic its, b e c a u s e o f g o v e r n m e n t's h u g e e x p e n d itu r e s o n D e fe n c e a n d in te r n a l s e c u r ity, e c o n o m ic s e r v ic e s, e d u c a tio n, s o c ia l s e r v ic e s a n d h e a lth a n d e n o r m o u s in te r e s ts o n d e b t (b e in g 25% o f th e b u d g e t e d a n n u a l e x p e n d itu r e ). T h e tr e n d o f la st 15 y e a r s c o n c e r n in g tra d e b a la n c e, s h o w s a s u r p lu s a n d fa v o u r a b le tr a d e b a la n c e th r o u g h o u t th e p e r io d o f la st 1 0 / 1 5 y e a r s. C o u n tr y 's e x p o r t e a r n in g s are s im p ly fa b u lo u s b e c a u s e o f its g o ld e x p o r ts ( h a v in g a sh a r e o f 40% ), m e ta ls a n d m e ta l p r o d u c ts, n o n in d u s tr ia l d ia m o n d s, m a c h in e r y, f o o d s tu f f s a n d m in e r a l o r e s. D u e to its e x p o r tin g s tr e n g th, th e c o u n tr y c a n im p o r t th e b e s t o f th e t e c h n o lo g ie s, m a c h in e s, in fr a s tr u c tu r e a n d c o n s u m e r g o o d s fro m th e r e s t o f th e w o r ld. Its tr a d e b a la n c e h a s m u lt ip lie d b y 5 tim e s d u r in g to (+ R 4 b illio n to +R 20 b illio n r e s p e c t iv e ly ). T h e c o u n tr y 's m a in tr a d in g p a r tn e r s are EEC, U K, Jap a n, Ita ly, C h in a a n d In d ia. 6.4: IN TR A G R O U P C O M P A R IS O N BETWEEN INDIA A N D SELECTED SO UTH AFRICAN CO U N TRIES. S o u th A fr ic a is th e r ic h e s t o f a ll fo u r c o u n tr ie s o f th e g r o u p v iz In d ia, B o ts w a n a, S o u th A fr ic a a n d Z im b a b w e. B o ts w a n a ra n k s s e c o n d o n th e b a s is o f p e r c a p ita in c o m e (d u e to th in p o p u la t io n o f o n ly 10 la k h s) w it h in th e g r o u p. Z im b a b w e ra n k s th ir d, (ra n k in g 7 fro m b o tto m to t o p o f a ll th e c o u n tr ie s o f th e w o r ld ) 25

5 tim e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f S o u th A frica ; S o u th A fr ic a 's p o p u la t io n is.7 t im e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f Z im b a b w e.

14 a n d I n d ia ra n k s fo u r th in th e g r o u p (r a n k in g 2'^ fr o m b o tto m to to p o f a ll th e c o u n tr ie s o f th e w o r ld ). I n d ia r a n k s to p, o n th e b a s is o f p o p u la t io n f o llo w e d b y S o u th A fr ic a, Z im b a b w e a n d B o ts w a n a. I n d ia 's p o p u la t io n is tim e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f S o u th A frica ; S o u th A fr ic a 's p o p u la t io n is.7 t im e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f Z im b a b w e. Z im b a b w e 's p o p u la t io n is 7.7 tim e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f B o ts w a n a. C o n s id e r in g I n d ia 's p o p u la t io n a n d r e q u ir e m e n ts o f in d u s t r ie s in In d ia ; I n d ia h a s p o s it iv e a d v a n ta g e in a v a ilin g o f th e s u p p o r t o f b a s ic m in e r a l r e s o u r c e s, a s w e ll a s, c h e m ic a ls a n d p h o s p h a te s fro m a ll th e th r e e c o u n tr ie s o f S o u th e r n A fr ic a. In d ia h a s tr e m e n d o u s ly d e v e lo p e d its m o n o p o ly in w o r ld m a r k e ts o f g o ld e n o r n a m e n ts a n d g e m je w e lr y, as s u c h, it c a n im p o r t u n c u t d ia m o n d s, a s w e ll a s, p r e c io u s m e ta ls fro m s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s o f A fr ic a fo r e n h a n c in g h e r p r o d u c t io n a n d e x p o r t e a r n in g s. O n th e o th e r h a n d. S o u th A fr ic a a n d its n e ig h b o u r s b e lo n g in g to th e g r o u p o f S A D C (A c u s to m s o f u n io n a n d c o m m o n m a r k e t) c a n f in d a v a s t c o n s u m e r m a r k e t o f 1 b illio n in I n d ia 's p o p u la t io n fo r th e ir p r o d u c ts. I n d ia c a n a lso e x p o r t its m a c h in e r y, te c h n o lo g y, c a p ita l, b u s in e s s a n d fin a n c e, e x p e r tis e, in fr a s tr u c tu r a l in s ta lla tio n s a n d c o n s u m e r d u r a b le s, a lo n g w ith, t e x t ile s, g a r m e n ts, c e r e a ls, v e g e ta b le s e tc., to th e s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s fro m S o u th e r n A frica. 26

s b e e n w o r s t v iz. - 1. p.c.p.a. B o ts w a n a 's g r o w th ra te h a s b e e n th e h ig h e s t b e in g 6.6 % p.a. - I n d ia 's r a te b e in g a r o u n d 5.2 %.

15 O n th e b a s is o f a r e a, I n d ia is 100 tim e s la r g e r th a n Z im b a b w e, 50 tim e s la r g e r th a n B o ts w a n a a n d tim e s la r g e r th a n S o u th A fr ic a. O n th e b a s is o f a n n u a l a v e r a g e g r o w th r a te, In d ia h a s th e to p rank; Z im b a b w e h a s o n e a n d S o u th A fr ic a 's g r o w t h r a te in r e c e n t y e a r s h a s b e e n w o r s t v iz p.c.p.a. B o ts w a n a 's g r o w th ra te h a s b e e n th e h ig h e s t b e in g 6.6 % p.a. - I n d ia 's r a te b e in g a r o u n d 5.2 %. O n th e b a s is o f lif e e x p e c ta n c y, a g a in B o ts w a n a h a s n u m b e r o n e r a n k in g, f o llo w e d b y S o u th A fr ic a, In d ia a n d Z im b a b w e. O n th e b a s is o f a d u lt lite r a c y, In d ia is th e to p p e r f o llo w e d b y B o ts w a n a, S o u th A fr ic a a n d Z im b a b w e. P u r c h a s in g p o w e r p a r ity in te r m s o f U S $ h a s b e e n c o n s ta n tly s ta b le fo r o v e r a lo n g p e r io d in c a s e o f B o ts w a n a a n d S o u th A fr ic a. B u t in r e c e n t y e a r s, lik e Z im b a b w e, S o u th A fr ic a h a v e s h o w n a d o w n w a r d tr e n d. I n d ia 's P P P in te r m s o f th e U S $ h a s b e e n th e lo w e s t a b o u t 5% o n ly d u r in g th e la s t d e c a d e. E x c e p t B o ts w a n a, th e r e s t o f th e c o u n tr ie s in c lu d in g In d ia h a d b u d g e ta r y d e fic its in p o s t 9 0 's, Z im b a b w e 's b e in g th e w o r s t v iz % o f its G D P. I n d ia 's a v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w th r a te in m o n e y s u p p ly h a s r e m a in e d w it h in m o d e r a te a n d c o n tr o lle d lim its a n d th e le a s t in th e g r o u p b e in g o n ly 16.9%, B o ts w a n a 's r a n k is 2"'^ h a v in g m o n e y s u p p ly o f 20.6% d u r in g th e d e c a d e, s o in th e c a s e o f Z im b a b w e. S o u th A fr ic a 's a n n u a l m o n e y s u p p ly g r o w th r a te is th e m a x im u m b e in g 21.7% d u r in g th e la s t d e c a d e. 27

W ith in th e g r o u p, Z im b a b w e fa c e s th e m o s t s e r io u s in fla tio n, th e n o m in a l in te r e s t r a te s r is in g fr o m.5% o f 1 9 8 0 to 26.

T h e c o s t o f th e c a p ita l in Z im b a b w e h a p p e n s to b e th e h ig h e s t w h ic h h a s b r o u g h t c o n d itio n s o f s ta g fla tio n, c o s t-p u s h in fla t io n a n d fa

16 W ith in th e g r o u p, Z im b a b w e fa c e s th e m o s t s e r io u s in fla tio n, th e n o m in a l in te r e s t r a te s r is in g fr o m.5% o f to 26.8% in th e y e a r a n d its le n d in g r a te h a s b e c o m e e x o r b ita n t to 4.9% in th e y e a r T h e c o s t o f th e c a p ita l in Z im b a b w e h a p p e n s to b e th e h ig h e s t w h ic h h a s b r o u g h t c o n d itio n s o f s ta g fla tio n, c o s t-p u s h in fla t io n a n d fa llin g r a te s o f p r o fits. In c o m p a r is o n to Z im b a b w e, th e in te r e s t r a te s in B o ts w a n a, S o u th A fr ic a a n d In d ia h a v e r e m a in e d m o d e r a te. I n d ia 's a n n u a l in fla tio n r a te r e m a in e d th e lo w e s t b e in g 9% w it h in th e g r o u p. I n d ia 's b a la n c e o n tr a d e a c c o u n t h a s n e g lig ib le d e fic its. B o ts w a n a a n d S o u th A fr ic a h a s m o d e r a te d e f ic its b u t Z im b a b w e 's d e fic its are m a x im u m. I n d ia 's fo r e ig n e x c h a n g e r e s e r v e s are th e s tr o n g e s t w it h in th e g r o u p (s u ffic ie n t fo r 7 to 8 m o n th s p a y m e n ts ) f o llo w e d b y S o u th A fr ic a (.7 m o n th s ), Z im b a b w e 's r e s e r v e s la s tin g o n ly w it h in o n e m o n th. T h e b u r d e n o f e x te r n a l d e b t o f Z im b a b w e is th e h e a v ie s t, f o llo w e d b y In d ia a n d B o ts w a n a. T o su m, In d ia a n d B o ts w a n a (b e c a u se o f its lim ite d p o p u la t io n o f 10 la k h s o n ly ) h a v e s u c c e s s f u lly m a n a g e d th e ir in fla t io n r a te s, d e p o s it a n d le n d in g r a te s, b u d g e ta r y d e fic its c u r r e n t tr a d e b a la n c e a n d e x te r n a l d e b ts. S o u th A fr ic a a n d Z im b a b w e n e e d d r a stic a n d e ffe c tiv e m e a s u r e s to im p r o v e th e ir m a c r o e c o n o m ic m a n a g e m e n t, p a r tic u la r ly th e m o n e ta r y a n d fis c a l c o n tr o ls. 28

6.5; TRENDS IN W O R L D TRADE D U R IN G THE LAST DECADE D u r in g th e la s t 1 2 y e a r s (1 9 8 0-9 2 ) w o r ld tr a d e h a s in c r e a s e d b y 84.

T h e d e v e lo p e d e c o n o m ie s d u r in g th e s a m e p e r io d h a v e in c r e a s e d th e ir s h a r e fr o m 64% to 72% in th e to ta l w o r ld tr a d e.

17 6.5; TRENDS IN W O R L D TRADE D U R IN G THE LAST DECADE D u r in g th e la s t 1 2 y e a r s ( ) w o r ld tr a d e h a s in c r e a s e d b y 84.2% (a lm o s t d o u b le ) fro m $ tr illio n to $ B u t it h a s b e c o m e s lu g g is h e s p e c ia lly a fte r o n w a r d s. T h e d e v e lo p e d e c o n o m ie s d u r in g th e s a m e p e r io d h a v e in c r e a s e d th e ir s h a r e fr o m 64% to 72% in th e to ta l w o r ld tr a d e. T h e r e fo r e th e y are th e M a ste r m o n o p o lis t s. T h e b e n e fic ia r y g r o u p s are E u r o p e, A s ia n T ig e r s, M e x ic o a n d B r a z il a n d lo s e r g r o u p s are E a ste r n E u r o p e, S o u th A fr ic a, S o u th A m e r ic a, O P E C c o u n tr ie s a n d o th e r A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s. In d ia e n jo y e d c o n s is t e n t ly v e r y h ig h g r o w t h ra te in its a n n u a l e x p o r ts e v e n in th e y e a r o f w o r s t c r is is v iz T h e a n n u a l g r o w t h ra te o f e x p o r ts o f S o u th A fr ic a h a s r e m a in e d n o m in a lly p o s it iv e in th e p o s t -9 0 s a n d th a t o f Z im b a b w e h a s d r a s tic a lly d r o p p e d to % in th a t y e a r. B o ts w a n a 's a n n u a l g r o w t h r a te o f e x p o r ts w a s h ig h e r th a n 25 to 0% d u r in g b u t in it a ls o f e ll to -01 %. O v e r a ll th e r e is a s la c k in th e w o r ld tr a d e s in c e o n w a r d s. T h e a v e r a g e g r o w t h r a te s o f e x p o r ts o f d e v e lo p in g c o u n t r ie s to g e th e r h a v e fa lle n to 8. % fr o m 25.8% o f s. B o o m in g y e a r s o f w o r ld tr a d e w e r e (W o r ld tr a d e in c r e a s e d fr o m $ 1 4 tr illio n to $ tr illio n ) a lm o s t b y s ix tim e s w it h in 10 y e a r s. D u r in g to , it r o s e o n ly b y 1-7 tim e s. D u r in g to , tr a d e e a r n in g s o f S o u th A fr ic a, B o ts w a n a, Z im b a b w e a n d In d ia in c r e a s e d b y 22, 5 7 5, 11 a n d 20 tim e s r e s p e c t iv e ly. S o u th A fr ic a e a r n e d in 1 9 9, $ tr illio n, In d ia ; $ tr illio n, B o ts w a n a $ 1.7 tr illio n a n d Z im b a b w e $ 1.2 tr illio n. 29

T h e s h a r e s o f S o u th A fr ic a a n d In d ia in th e to ta l w o r ld tr a d e are a lso a lm o s t e q u a l i.e. 0.6% (n e a r ly V2 %) a n d 0.5%.

18 W ith in th e g r o u p. S o u th A fr ic a a n d In d ia h a v e e q u ita b le s tr e n g th in th e w o r ld tr a d e - a b o u t 20 tim e s g r e a te r th a n th a t o f B o ts w a n a a n d Z im b a b w e. T h e s h a r e s o f S o u th A fr ic a a n d In d ia in th e to ta l w o r ld tr a d e are a lso a lm o s t e q u a l i.e. 0.6% (n e a r ly V2 %) a n d 0.5%. T h e s h a r e s o f B o ts w a n a a n d Z im b a b w e are le s s th a n 1 / ; TRADE OF SELECTED FOUR COUNTRIES S o u th A fr ic a b y s w a s th e h ig h e s t e a r n e r o f fo r e ig n e x c h a n g e o f $ b illio n a g a in s t th o s e o f In d ia b e in g o n ly $ 8.5 b illio n. B y 1995, I n d ia 's e x p o r t e a r n in g s in c r e a s e d to $ 0.7 b illio n w h e r e a s t h o s e o f S o u th A fr ic a r e m a in e d $ b illio n. T h u s d u r in g th e la s t 18 y e a r s, In d ia h a s o v e r ta k e n th e to p p o s it io n w h ic h w a s e n jo y e d b y S o u th A fr ic a. In c o m p a r is o n to I n d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a th e e x p o r t e a r n in g s o f B o ts w a n a in th e y e a r w e r e $ 2.1 b illio n a n d th o s e o f Z im b a b w e w e r e $ 1.8 b illio n. In , b o th I n d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a h a v e e a r n e d 75% b y e x p o r ts o f m a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s, Z im b a b w e e a r n e d 7% b y e x p o r ts o f m a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s, w h e r e a s B o ts w a n a h a s n o t d e v e lo p e d its s e c o n d a r y i.e. in d u s tr ia l s e c to r. In d ia s p e n d s 0 to 40% o f its to ta l im p o r ts fo r p u r c h a s e o f fu e l w h ile Z im b a b w e is c o m p e lle d to s p e n d n e a r ly 18 to 20% o n im p o r ts o f fo o d. E x c e p t B o ts w a n a, a ll th e th r e e c o u n tr ie s v iz. Z im b a b w e, S o u th A fr ic a a n d In d ia s u ffe r fro m d e fic its o n th e ir tr a d e b a la n c e a c c o u n t. B a r rin g S o u th A fr ic a th e r e st o f th e c o u n tr ie s h a v e im p r o v e d th e ir in te r n a tio n a l r e s e r v e s d u r in g 1980 a n d

A v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h r a te s o f G D P in I n d ia h a v e r e m a in e d w it h in th e r a n g e o f 4 to 7% d u r in g 1 9 8 0-9 5.

A n n u a l a v e r a g e g r o w th r a te s o f G D P o f S o u th A fr ic a r e m a in e d v e r y lo w, in th e r a n g e o f - to 1.%.

19 A v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h r a te s o f G D P in I n d ia h a v e r e m a in e d w it h in th e r a n g e o f 4 to 7% d u r in g Z im b a b w e g r o w t h r a te o f G D P d r o p p e d to 1% in fr o m -5% o f B o ts w a n a 's g r o w th ra te w a s m o r e th a n 10% in , f e ll to 4.2% in A n n u a l a v e r a g e g r o w th r a te s o f G D P o f S o u th A fr ic a r e m a in e d v e r y lo w, in th e r a n g e o f - to 1.%. I n d ia 's im p o r ts in c r e a s e d b y 4 tim e s a n d e x p o r ts b y 6 tim e s d u r in g th e p e r io d F ro m o n w a r d s th e tr a d e d e f ic it s h a v e b e e n r e d u c e d d u e to r is e in e x p o r t e a r n in g s d u e to p o s t 9 0 's lib e r a lis a tio n. S im ila r ly, th e r a te o f r is e in e x p o r t e a r n in g s o f S o u th A fr ic a far e x c e e d e d th a n th e ra te o f r ise in its im p o r t p a y m e n ts. S in c e o n w a r d s. S o u th A fr ic a im p r o v e d its tr a d e b a la n c e a c c o u n t b y s u r p lu s e s. M ajor im p o r ts o f S o u th A fr ic a are: e le c tr ic a l. X -ra y e q u ip m e n t, e le c tr o n ic s, lo r r ie s, tr a c to r s, a ircra ft, p h o to a n d c in e m a e q u ip m e n t, s o u n d r e c o r d in g e q u ip m e n t, e le c tr ic p u m p s, te le c o m e q u ip m e n t, c o m p u te r s, r ic e, m e a t, p e r fu m e s a n d a lc o h o l, e tc. I n d ia h a s a lr e a d y d e v e lo p e d t h e s e in d u s t r ie s a n d e s ta b lis h e d h e r e x p o r t m a r k e t for t h e s e g o o d s. S o u th A fr ic a a t p r e s e n t m o s t ly im p o r ts its r e q u ir e m e n ts fr o m E u r o p e a n c o u n tr ie s b e c a u s e o f th e a s s u r a n c e o f th e q u a lity. In d ia c a n w in th e s e m a r k e t s e g m e n t s b y c o n v in c in g a n d a s s u r in g th e c o m p e t itiv e q u a lity a n d p r ic e to th e m a r k e ts o f S o u th A fr ic a n r e g io n. 241

F ro m 1 9 8 9 o n w a r d s, Z im b a b w e h a s b e e n fa c in g s e r io u s d e f ic its o n tr a d e b a la n c e a c c o u n ts. T h e m ajor ite m s its im p o r ts are v iz.

I n d ia c a n e x p lo r e m a r k e tin g p o s s ib ilit ie s in Z im b a b w e, to o, in th e f ie ld o f e n g in e e r in g a n d m a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s.

20 F ro m o n w a r d s, Z im b a b w e h a s b e e n fa c in g s e r io u s d e f ic its o n tr a d e b a la n c e a c c o u n ts. T h e m ajor ite m s its im p o r ts are v iz. in d u s tr ia l s u p p lie s, m a c h in e r y a n d tr a n sp o r t e q u ip m e n t, v e h ic le s a n d f o o d. I n d ia c a n e x p lo r e m a r k e tin g p o s s ib ilit ie s in Z im b a b w e, to o, in th e f ie ld o f e n g in e e r in g a n d m a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s. D u r in g r e c e n t y e a r s, Z im b a b w e 's d o lla r is lo s in g its e x te r n a l p u r c h a s in g p o w e r e s p e c ia lly a g a in s t E E C, U S c u r r e n c ie s, th e r e fo r e it is s u ffe r in g fr o m fa llin g e x p o r t e a r n in g s, as w e ll a s, r is in g im p o r t c o s t b u r d e n s. It w ill b e b e n e fic ia l fo r Z im b a b w e to d e v e lo p tr a d e r e la tio n s w it h In d ia s in c e I n d ia n R u p e e is far c h e a p e r th a n th e h a r d c u r r e n c ie s o f th e in d u s tr ia lly a d v a n c e d c o u n tr ie s. T h e m a in tr a d in g p a r tn e r s o f S o u th A fr ic a are EEC c o u n tr ie s, U S, U K a n d Jap an, E a st A s ia n c o u n tr ie s, Z im b a b w e, c h in a, J a p a n a n d I n d ia. (In d ia 's sh a r e b e in g th e lo w e s t). Z im b a b w e im p o r ts m o s t ly fro m A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s, E E C, U S (p a r tic u la r ly S o u th A fr ic a, U K, G e r m a n y, U S, C h in a a n d Japan). I n d ia 's e x p o r ts to Z im b a b w e are n o t e v e n 1% o f its to ta l im p o r ts. B u t th e r e c e n t tr e n d s h o w s I n d ia 's e x p o r ts to Z im b a b w e h a v e in c r e a s e d r e la t iv e ly m o r e in v o lu m e a n d v a lu e w h e r e a s, C h in a 's e x p o r ts h a v e s u b s ta n tia lly r e d u c e d. T h e r e fo r e, th e r e is a p o s it iv e p r o m is e in th e p r o s p e c ts o f I n d o -Z im b a b w e tra d e. A m o n g th e d e v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s, C h in a a n d S o u th K o rea h a v e d o n e tr e m e n d o u s p r o g r e s s in e x p a n d in g th e ir e x p o r t m a r k e ts. G ia n ts o f th e w o r ld s to ta l e x p o r t m a r k e t are U S a n d Jap a n. T h e y are th e m a in b u y e r s o f th e w o r ld. T h o se d e v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s w h ic h h a v e c a p tu r e d m a r k e t a m o n g th em ; (e.g. E a st A s ia n T ig e r s) 242

h t o f fo r e ig n c a p ita l fr o m th e c o u n tr ie s a n d r is in g th e w a g e le v e ls d u e to s p o r a d ic in fla tio n.

21 e a r n e d m o r e th a n 0 tim e s th a n I n d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a b y th e ir e x p o r ts to U S, J a p a n a n d EEC m a r k e ts. B u t a ll th e S o u th E a st A s ia n c o u n tr ie s h a v e g o t e n t a n g le d in th e tra p o f th e ir c u r r e n c y c r is is a n d fo r e ig n in d e b t e d n e s s, s u d d e n f lig h t o f fo r e ig n c a p ita l fr o m th e c o u n tr ie s a n d r is in g th e w a g e le v e ls d u e to s p o r a d ic in fla tio n. T h e s e c o u n tr ie s c o u ld c a p tu r e th e w o r ld m a r k e t b e c a u s e o f th e ir u t m o s t c o s t c o m p e t it iv e n e s s. T h e d e v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s, h a v in g s u f fic ie n t in d u s tr ia l b a s e, lik e S o u th A fr ic a, I n d ia, Z im b a b w e w h ic h e n jo y lo w w a g e r a te s, h a v e a v a s t s c o p e o f w id e n in g th e ir m a r k e ts a n d a ttr a c t o r d e r s fr o m th e w o r ld 's r ic h b u y e r c o u n tr ie s. 6.7: TH E N E W L Y ID E N T IF IE D A R E A S O F M U T U A L DEPENDENCE A N D TRADE RELATIONS A N D OVERALL PROSPECTS OF IN D O SO U TH AFRICAN RE G IO N AL TRADE : SADC, SA CU A N D FORM ER SADCC. S o u th A fr ic a n d e v e lo p m e n t c o o r d in a tio n c o n fe r e n c e (S A D C C ) w a s e s ta b lis h e d in to p r o m o te r e g io n a l c o o p e r a tio n a n d e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n t o f d e m o c r a tic c o u n tr ie s e x c lu d in g S o u th A fr ic a e x te n d in g m e m b e r s h ip to Z a m b ia, Z im b a b w e, M o z a m b iq u e, M a la w i e tc. T h e m a in o b je c tiv e o f th e s e n a tio n s w a s to r e d u c e d e p e n d e n c e o n th e m ig h ty a n d n u c le a r e c o n o m y o f th e S o u th A fr ic a w it h in S o u th A fr ic a n r e g io n. S A D C C d e s ir e d to m o b ilis e a n d c o o r d in a te a id f lo w s jo in tly to d e v e lo p in fr a s tr u c tu r a l p r o je c ts. T h e fa c t is th a t th e c o m b in e d v o lu m e o f S A D C C tr a d e w it h S o u th A fr ic a is a n e s tim a t e d 7 tim e s h ig h e r th a n tr a d e a m o n g S A D C C m e m b e r s. 24

In 1 9 9 1, N e ls o n M a n d e la th e le g e n d a r y fr e e d o m fig h te r, b e c a m e p r e s id e n t o f th e n e w d e m o c r a tic r e p u b lic o f S o u th A fr ic a.

22 T h e r a c is t g o v e r n m e n t o f S o u th A fr ic a lif te d th e th ir ty -y e a r b a n o n A fr ic a n N a t io n a l C o n g r e s s (A N C ) a n d d e c la r e d th e g e n e r a l e le c tio n s, in In , N e ls o n M a n d e la th e le g e n d a r y fr e e d o m fig h te r, b e c a m e p r e s id e n t o f th e n e w d e m o c r a tic r e p u b lic o f S o u th A fr ic a. O b v io u s ly th e p o lit ic a l e c o n o m ic a n d tr a d e r e la tio n s o f m e m b e r c o u n tr ie s o f S A D C C w it h S o u th A fr ic a, h a v e b e c o m e n o t o n ly ju st c o r d ia l a n d fr ie n d ly, b u t r e c e n tly t h e y h a v e fo r m e d a n d r e in v ig o r a te d tw o r e g io n a l c o o p e r a tiv e u n io n s v iz. 1 )S A D C - S o u t h A fr ic a n D e v e lo p m e n t C o m m u n ity in A u g u s t, , e x te n d in g m e m b e r s h ip o f p r e v io u s S A D C C, as w e ll a s. S o u th A fr ic a 2) S A C U - T h e C u s to m s A n d E x c ise U n io n A m o n g S o u th A fr ic a, B o ts w a n a, L e s o th o, N a m ib ia a n d S w a z ila n d (E s ta b lis h e d in ) h a s b e e n r e v it a lis e d w it h a v ie w to e n la r g e its s c o p e c o v e r in g th e o th e r m e m b e r c o u n tr ie s o f S A D C C. T h e r e fo r e th e p r o s p e c ts o f a c tiv is e d r e g io n a l c o o p e r a tio n w it h in S o u th A fr ic a R e g io n h a v e c h a n g e d th e e n tir e s c e n a r io o f th e tr a d e a n d e c o n o m ic r e la tio n s o f th e r e g io n e n te r in g in to tr a d e d e a ls w it h th e r e s t o f th e w o r ld ; as o n e m o n o lith g r o u p. It is th e fa ct th a t S o u th A fr ic a n lo c o m o t iv e w ill b e a b le to r e sta r t th e S o u th e r n A fr ic a n e c o n o m y tr a in.(e llin g T jo n n e la n d ). T h e n e w e m p h a s is o n tr a d e p r o m o tio n w a s o n 'e x p o r t - le d - g r o w t h -p a th ' b a s e d o n d e v e lo p m e n t o f m a n u fa c tu r in g s e c to r s in b a c k w a r d m e m b e r c o u n tr ie s. T h e 8 0 's a n d 9 0 's w it n e s s e d a g e n e r a l m o v e to w a r d s ta r iff r e d u c tio n s, lib e r a liz a tio n, m u tu a l c o o p e r a tio n w it h in h e r e g io n a n d a m o r e o p e n e c o n o m ie s. P la n s o f c o m m o n m a r k e t, c o m m o n c u r r e n c ie s are in th e o ffin g. A s a m a tte r o f fa c t, 49 A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s d o d e p e n d o n S o u th A fr ic a in tra d e r e la tio n s, B o ts w a n a, Z im b a b w e, Z a ir e a n d M a u r itiu s h a p p e n to b e th e m o s t 244

a n a g e d b y S o u th A fr ic a. S o u th A fr ic a h a s a lr e a d y im p o r te d c h e a p la b o u r fr o m th e n e ig h b o r in g c o u n tr ie s.

23 im p o r ta n t o n e s a m o n g th e m. P la n s a r e g e ttin g m a te r ia lis e d to a s s ig n la b o u r in t e n s iv e p r o d u c ts to n e ig h b o r in g c o u n tr ie s a n d c a p ita l in t e n s iv e a c tiv itie s to b e m a n a g e d b y S o u th A fr ic a. S o u th A fr ic a h a s a lr e a d y im p o r te d c h e a p la b o u r fr o m th e n e ig h b o r in g c o u n tr ie s. T h u s " th e r o a d to S o u th e r n A fr ic a g o e s th r o u g h S o u th A frica" (M r. E L is tn e r ). S o u th e r n A fr ic a n la n d lo c k e d c o u n tr ie s in d is p e n s a b ly d e p e n d o n S o u th A fr ic a n p o r ts o f C a p e a n d D u r b a n fo r th e ir tr a d in g in te r e s ts. T h e y a re c a lle d 'fr o n t-lin e S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s " v iz. Z a m b ia, Z im b a b w e, B o ts w a n a, L e s o th o a n d S w a z ila n d. T h e tie s o f in te r d e p e n d e n c e a n d c o o p e r a tio n h a v e b e c o m e s tr o n g e r d u e to c o m p le t io n o f 76 m a jo r in fr a s tr u c tu r a l d e v e lo p m e n t p r o je c ts im p le m e n t e d b y S A D C (S A C o m m u n ity ). T h e a c tiv ity o f to u r is m is b e in g jo in tly o r g a n is e d b y th e m, to o. B o ts w a n a 's m a x im u m e x p o r ts (85% ) are b e in g b o u g h t b y U K, b u t it r e lie s m o s t ly o n im p o r ts fr o m S o u th A fr ic a (m o r e th a n 80% to 90% ); th u s it is in fa c t a s a te llit e c o u n tr y o f th e S o u th A fr ic a. S o u th A fr ic a e x p o r ts 5% to G e r m a n y, 6% to Jap an, 8% to S w itz e r la n d, 7% to U S, 2% to F ra n c e, B e lg iu m, Isra e l, Ita ly, K o rea, N e t h e r la n d s, T a iw a n, Z im b a b w e. It e x p o r ts m o r e th a n 60% to w o r ld s a d v a n c e d c o u n tr ie s. O n th e im p o r t s id e its m a jo r p a r tn e r s are G e r m a n y (17% ), U S (12% ), U S (12% ), Jap an 10%, o th e r E u r o p e a n c o u n tr ie s 10% a n d C h in a, H o n g K o n g, S in g a p o r e, T a iw a n a n d In d ia. Z im b a b w e im p o r ts m o r e th a n 25% fro m S o u th A fr ic a, 10% fro m U K, 9% fro m G e r m a n y a n d Jap a n, U S, F ra n c e, B e lg iu m a n d A u str a lia. O n th e e x p o r t s id e, its m a jo r p a r tn e r s are G e r m a n y (8-245

24 10% ), S o u th A fr ic a (1-17% ), U K (10-14% ), U S (6-7% ), Ita ly (4-5% ), Jap an (6-7%) a n d Z a m b ia (-4% ). A ll th e th r e e s e le c te d S o u th A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s h e a v ily d e p e n d o n w o r ld s a d v a n c e d c o u n tr ie s a n d n o t th e m a jo r d e v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s lik e C h in a a n d In d ia. I n d ia 's to p m o s t tr a d in g p a r tn e r is U S h a v in g 10 to 12% s h a r e in I n d ia 's im p o r ts. T h e s e c o n d, th ir d a n d fo u r th p a r tn e r s o f I n d ia a re B e lg iu m (8% ), G e r m a n y (7-8% ) a n d Jap a n (6-7% ). In d ia h a s c o m p u ls io n s to b u y p e tr o l, c r u d e e tc., fr o m G u lf c o u n tr ie s (th e sh a r e o f th e m in I n d ia 's im p o r ts b e in g 20 to 0% ) U K a ls o h a s a sh a r e o f 7 to 8%. O n th e e x p o r t s id e, EEC c o u n tr ie s h a v e th e la r g e s t s h a r e o f 0%, U S (16 to 18% ) J a p a n (8-9% ), G e r m a n y (7-8% ), U A E (-5% ), U K (5-6% ), H o n g K o n g (4-6% ), Ita ly (-4% ), U S S R (-7% ), B e lg iu m ( - 4%) a n d le s s th a n 1 to 2% w it h S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s. I n d ia in d e e d h a s a p o t e n tia l to in c r e a s e h e r e x p o r ts to B o ts w a n a, Z im b a b w e a n d S o u th A fr ic a ju st lik e U A E, b e c a u s e o f g e o g r a p h ic a l n e a r n e s s a n d e m o t io n a l a ffin ity d u e to h is to r ic a l fr ie n d ly r e la tio n s. 6.8; O bservations and Findings from the M aster Table 1. I n d ia h a s m o n o p o ly in e x p o r t m a r k e ts o f f o llo w in g c o m m o d itie s w h ic h c a n n o t e ith e r b e p r o d u c e d or e x p o r te d b y th e s e le c t e d S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s. T h e ir s h a r e s are a lso v e r y la r g e in th e to ta l e x p o r ts, a) E n g in e e r in g p r o d u c ts 246

25 b ) T e x tile a n d g a r m e n ts c) I n fo r m a tio n t e c h n o lo g y a n d s o ftw a r e d ) L e a th e r p r o d u c ts e) G e m s a n d je w e lle r y f) T r a n s p o r t e q u ip m e n t a n d v e h ic le s g) M a c h in e r y a n d e le c tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t h ) M a r in e p r o d u c ts. S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s m o s t ly im p o r t th e m fr o m e x p e n s iv e c u r r e n c y c o u n tr ie s fro m E E C, U S, Jap an e tc., it w ill b e a d v a n t a g e o u s fo r th e m to b u y th e m fr o m In d ia. 2. In r e tu r n, In d ia c a n r e c ip r o c a lly d e p e n d o n r a w to b a c c o w h ic h is e x p o r te d b y Z im b a b w e fo r I n d ia 's b o o m in g c ig a r e tte in d u s t r y, m e ta l o r e s (a s s h e is d e f ic ie n t o f) g o ld, d ia m o n d s a n d p r e c io u s s t o n e s... fr o m B o ts w a n a, Z im b a b w e a n d S o u th A fr ic a w h ic h w ill fu r th e r b o o s t u p I n d ia 's m o n o p o ly m a n u fa c tu r e s in g e m s a n d je w e lle r y, e n g in e e r in g p r o d u c ts (B o ts w a n a e x p o r ts 78% sh a r e o f d ia m o n d s b u t h a r d ly a n y m a jo r p e r c e n ta g e sh a r e to I n d ia.) - I n d ia b a d ly n e e d s fu e l, n e w t e c h n o lo g ie s o f p r o d u c t io n o f s t e e l a n d p h o s p h a te s, c h e m ic a ls, fe r r o a llo y s fo r th e g r o w in g n e e d s o f its fa r m in g a n d in d u s tr ia l s e c to r s. I n d ia th e r e fo r e c a n e x p lo r e n e w r e s o u r c e s -s u p p lie r m a r k e ts in S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s. T o s u m, th e r e is c r o s s - d e p e n d e n c e o f b o th th e p a r tie s In d ia a n d th e s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s o f S o u th A fr ic a n r e g io n. T h e fa c to r s o f c o m p a tib ility, c o m p lim e n ta r ity a n d m u tu a l d e p e n d e n c e h a v e b e e n p r o v e d b y th e a n a ly s is o f th e e x p o r t im p o r t r e q u ir e m e n ts o f a ll th e s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s. 247

$1 C O ' o ' n >-1 T II o L ft o \D l-t a> 01 O 1-1 n> C ft) vo I I U1 m W fo fo» d If o CL c n 2 n> tt> 01 S> L 2 n a> T l-f O CL c r.$ ht 4^ 0 fb < fd 1-1 0> w 01 a> CL tn n 01 H O T SJ n n O 'T l o 0 Q - O ' n> < m 1-1 B> U ) I H-i ft) I f OJ 1-1 o CL e n rt> 0 1-1 fti 01 (T> a 0 rd s a> n * ft> a> CL I I I-** n 'v l H i 00 OJ N J

ht 4^ 0 fb < fd 1-1 0> w 01 a> CL tn n 01 H O T SJ n n O 'T l o 0 Q - O ' n> < m 1-1 B> U ) I H-i ft) I f OJ 1-1 o CL e n rt> 0 1-1 fti 01 (T> a 0 rd s a> n * ft> a> CL I I I-** n 'v l H i 00 OJ N J

26 n o n w n O o TO» i-t cn t o w n o a 1-1 ft? r rt> yi h s» B 0 a- 01 l-l fu n O fs O) 'O CO bo (D a su a- S ns 02 T i-i O CL c n w 2 s» >-f rt> TJ I O cie n (V 01 w Tl e m o i I n rr 0) 5 a> D. 1 C O ' o ' n >-1 T II o L ft o \D l-t a> 01 O 1-1 n> C ft) vo I I U1 m W fo fo» d If o CL c n 2 n> tt> 01 S> L 2 n a> T l-f O CL c r. ht 4^ 0 fb < fd 1-1 0> w 01 a> CL tn n 01 H O T SJ n n O 'T l o 0 Q - O ' n> < m 1-1 B> U ) I H-i ft) I f OJ 1-1 o CL e n rt> fti 01 (T> a 0 rd s a> n * ft> a> CL I I I-** n 'v l H i 00 OJ N J N ) m X T O 1-1 o tfi t 0> 01 cn o c * > S ) N ««* n o o a. V ) n> <** 't a C * 'C. a S L Q <* fs s tl <> 5: a * tn 1 a rs 2* > a S a. S i V) M, cn a s 't r& n T a o ~s «> VI a. a. c * f5> tl n O s S 2 5: n Q 5 L a I-*- ::t QA f? <= N) w O J O J cn N J In N> o s N ) W U ) W K J k ) 00 In o so tsj O J m X o I t n X OI I N c r ff o ' fh Ca o s R "< n <-*. o a S! c * *««> t-+. s o Vi a O q «> f i i * * ;i:i V5 * tn tm ha 0 fs W o CJl v> k) t: 00 > 1* N l b N J rfi. U1 cn ^<1 _OJ In N ) bo oi-! CL V ) o 00 In OJ OS KJ so in X o 1-1 n a

27 a> n t-t» S Ou a a> N fd>1o* T s> n o 2. N) CL o su t o- K> vo 00 )(>

6.8.1:Indo-Botszvana trade Findings from the data 1) S h a r e s o f m a jo r e x p o r ts o f In d ia to B o ts w a n a in 1 9 8 4 a n d 1 9 9 4 are as fo llo w s : a) m e d ic in e s 2% a n d 50% r

5% in 1 9 84) r e a d y m a d e g a r m e n ts (16.

28 6.8.1:Indo-Botszvana trade Findings from the data 1) S h a r e s o f m a jo r e x p o r ts o f In d ia to B o ts w a n a in a n d are as fo llo w s : a) m e d ic in e s 2% a n d 50% r e s p e c t iv e ly b) d ie s e l e n g in e s : 2.8% a n d 44.7% r e s p e c t iv e ly. T h e o th e r im p o r ta n t e x p o r ts a re fa b r ic s (25.5% in ) r e a d y m a d e g a r m e n ts (16.2% in ), th e o th e r im p o r ta n t ite m s o f I n d ia n e x p o r ts to B o ts w a n a a re m e ta l a r tw a r e, v e g e ta b le s, p a n m a sa la, fr e s h fis h a n d tr a v e l g o o d s. In d ia e x p o r te d g o o d s w o r th R s la k h s in a n d R s. 7.1 la k h s in th e y e a r ) I n d ia 's v e r y im p o r ta n t im p o r ts fro m B o ts w a n a are a s b e s to s a n d a s b e s to s g o o d s : 66.6% in , w o o l to p s: 21.7% in ) In I n d ia im p o r te d g o o d s w o r th R s la k h s fr o m B o ts w a n a a n d e x p o r te d g o o d s w o r th R s la k h s - h a v in g u n fa v o u r a b le b a la n c e o f tra d e. 4) I n d ia 's e x p o r ts to B o ts w a n a in c r e a s e d u p to R s la k h s fro m R s.9 2 la k h s w h ic h is n e a r ly tim e s d u r in g ; Indo-Zim hahw e Trade Findings. 1) I n d ia 's m a in e x p o r ts to Z im b a b w e in w e r e tra c to r s (9% ), m a c h in e r y a n d s p a r e p a r ts (1.% ) a n d v e g e ta b le s (9.2% ) v e h ic le s a n d c y c le s (5% ) fo o tw e a r (4.7% ), R a y o n a n d fib r e s (5.2% ). T h e o th e r ite m s e x p o r te d w e r e le a th e r g o o d s, p a s t e u r iz in g p la n t, p u m p s, e le c tr ic a l g o o d s, g a r m e n ts, s p o r ts g o o d s a n d s ta tio n e r y. 2) D u r in g to I n d ia 's e x p o r t tra d e in c r e a s e d b y a b o u t 2 2 tim e s fr o m R s.1.2 c r o r e s (1984) to R s.2 4 c r o r e s in In , th e e x p o r ts tra d e ite m s b e c a m e m o re d iv e r s if ie d a n d v a r ie d in c lu d in g s c o o te r s, lo r r ie s, tru ck s, m o to r v e h ic le s, g la s s a n d c o p p e r w o r k, m e d ic a l a n d v e te r in a r y a p p lia n c e s. 250

T h e s e c o n d la r g e s t sh a r e b e lo n g e d to ty r e s a n d r u b b e r p r o d u c t s (19.2% ), th ir d sh a r e b e lo n g e d to v e h ic le s, tr u c k s (1.1% ).

29 d ie s e l e n g in e s, p o ly e s t e r s u it in g s, m a r b le a n d t ile s, ty r e s a n d r u b b e r p r o d u c ts, m e d ic in e s, c h e m ic a ls a n d f o o d p r o d u c ts. ) T h e m o s t n o ta b le c h a n g e w a s in th e r a d ic a l a n d s p o r a d ic r is e in th e s h a r e s o f p h a r m a c e u tic a ls in th e t o ta l e x p o r t u p t o 20%. T h e s e c o n d la r g e s t sh a r e b e lo n g e d to ty r e s a n d r u b b e r p r o d u c t s (19.2% ), th ir d sh a r e b e lo n g e d to v e h ic le s, tr u c k s (1.1% ). T h u s b y , th e c o m p o s it io n o f I n d ia 's e x p o r ts to Z im b a b w e r a d ic a lly c h a n g e d in f a v o u r o f in d u s t r ia l a n d p h a r m a c e u tic a l g o o d s r a th er th a n th e t r a d itio n a l ite m s fr o m th e p r im a r y a n d in te r m e d ia te in d u s t r ie s. 4) I n d ia n g o o d s a re a ffo r d a b le to Z im b a b w e - h a v in g th e l o w p e r c a p ita in c o m e b e lo n g in g to p o o r c o u n tr ie s in c o m p a r is o n to B o ts w a n a a n d S o u th A fr ic a. M o r e o v e r In d ia a n d Z im b a b w e h a v e v e r y a m ia b le a n d fr ie n d ly p o lit ic a l a n d e c o n o m ic r e la tio n s, b e in g m e m b e r s o f th e N A M a n d I n d ia 's s u p p o r t to th e c a u s e o f Z im b a b w e 's fr e e d o m. 5) T h e sh a r e s o f to p th r e e ite m s o f I n d ia 's im p o r ts fr o m Z im b a b w e in w e r e (a) a s b e s to s fib r e (28.% ), w a t t le e x tr a c ts (28.% ), p r e c io u s s t o n e s (22.5% ) - to g e t h e r h e ld m o r e th a n 7% s h a r e o f th e to ta l e x p o r ts. 6) I n d ia e x p o r te d g o o d s w o r th R s.l2 la k h s in to Z im b a b w e a n d b o u g h t g o o d s w o r th R s la k h s; th u s h a v in g a d e f ic it o f tr a d e b a la n c e o f R s c r o res. 7) T h e c o m p o s it io n o f I n d ia 's im p o r ts in th e y e a r r a d ic a lly c h a n g e d b y h a v in g a w id e v a r ie t y o f n e w ite m s. 8) A s b e s t o s fib r e s a n d a s b e s to s in r o c k fo r m to g e th e r h e ld 46% s h a r e o f th e to ta l im p o r ts, w a ttle e x tr a c ts h a d a s h a r e o f 18.% o f th e to ta l im p o r ts. N e w ite m s w h ic h w a r e b o u g h t b y I n d ia 251

30 w e r e g r a fte d r o s e s, liv e p la n ts, s y n th e tic ta n n in g, c o b a lt b a s e d a llo y s, f e r r o a llo y s, p r e c io u s s to n e s, c o p p e r b a rs. 9) I n d ia 's im p o r ts fro m Z im b a b w e r o s e fr o m R s.2.5 c r o r e s ( ) to R s. 2.5 c r o r e s...b y a b o u t 16 tim e s. 10) T h e r e h a s b e e n a c o n s is t e n t a n d s ta b le u p w a r d tr e n d in th e g r o w th o f b o th e x p o r ts a n d im p o r ts o f In d ia a n d Z im b a b w e. 11) I n d ia 's d e m a n d fo r Z im b a b w e 's a s b e s to s, m e ta l e x tr a c ts, c h r o m e, e le c tr o p la tin g m a te r ia ls, p r e c io u s s to n e s, c o p p e r e tc is in e la s tic a n d it is a d v a n ta g e o u s to im p o r t t h e s e g o o d s w h ic h s e r v e th e p u r p o s e o f r a w m a te r ia ls a n d r e s o u r c e s fo r I n d ia 's v e r y lu c r a tiv e in d u s tr ie s o f c o n s tr u c tio n, e n g in e e r in g, g e m s a n d je w e lle r y in d u s tr ie s. 12) D u r in g ; I n d ia 's e x p o r ts r o s e m o r e th a n p r o p o r tio n a te ly th a n h e r im p o r ts fr o m Z im b a b w e. T h e tr e n d is q u ite fa v o r a b le to In d ia : Indo-South Africa Trade. D u r in g , I n d ia 's tr a d e w it h S o u th A fr ic a w a s o f f ic ia lly c lo s e d. In s p ite o f th a t I n d ia n g o o d s u s e d to b e b o u g h t b y S o u th A fr ic a n p e o p le th r o u g h th e in d ir e c t c h a n n e ls o f Z im b a b w e, T a n z a n ia, Z a m b ia, M a u r itiu s e tc. N e a r ly 40% b u s in e s s a n d r e ta il tr a d in g h a s b e e n m o n o p o liz e d b y m ig r a n t r e s id e n ts o f S o u th A fr ic a o f G u ja r a ti o r ig in. S o u th A fr ic a a d o p te d a p r a c tic e o f n o t r e v e a lin g h e r tr a d e s ta tis tic s a n d th e s o u r c e s o f its im p o r ts a n d d e s tin a t io n s o f its e x p o r ts. T h e r e fo r e, th e tra d e fig u r e s o f I n d o -S o u th A fr ic a n tr a d e are n o t a v a ila b le u p to s. 252

I n d ia e x p o r te d m o r e th a n 5 0 ite m s to S o u th A fr ic a, m o r e th a n 1 5 0 ite m s to Z im b a b w e a n d le s s th a n 20 ite m s to B o ts w a n a.

5 0 0 c r o r e s fr o m S o u th A fr ic a b y a d iv e r s if ie d lis t o f ite m s, th e ir v o lu m e s a n d v a lu e s q u a n tu m.

31 I n d ia e x p o r te d m o r e th a n 5 0 ite m s to S o u th A fr ic a, m o r e th a n ite m s to Z im b a b w e a n d le s s th a n 20 ite m s to B o ts w a n a. I n d ia 's e x p o r ts b r o u g h t e a r n in g s n e a r ly o f R s c r o r e s fr o m S o u th A fr ic a b y a d iv e r s if ie d lis t o f ite m s, th e ir v o lu m e s a n d v a lu e s q u a n tu m. T h e le a d in g ite m s h a v in g m a jo r s h a r e s o f I n d ia n e x p o r ts to S o u th A fr ic a are g a r m e n ts (15.8% ), c o tto n, ju te, h a n d lo o m g o o d s (14.7% ), a n d fu r n itu r e (7.6% ). M e ta l m a n u fa c tu r e s, p ig m e n t s, d y e s tu ffs, p a in ts h a v in g sh a r e o f 4% e a c h, h o s ie r y, le a th e r fo o tw e a r, e le c tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t, v e h ic le s % e a c h e tc. In a d d it io n to th o s e, In d ia e x p o r te d m e a t, fis h, b ir d s, f o o d p r o d u c ts, f lo w e r s, a lc o h o lic d r in k s, m e d ic in e s, v e g e ta b le s, d a is, fr u its, s p ic e s, fo o d g r a in s, c o s m e t ic s, h a ir o il, t o ile tr y, c a r p 't s e tc. I n d ia 's e x p o r t e a r n in g s in fr o m S o u th A frica w e r e R s c r o r e s a s a g a in s t R s.2 4 c r o r e s fr o m Z im b a b w e. T h u s S o u th A fr ic a is th e m o s t im p o r ta n t m a r k e t fo r I n d ia 's tr a d e w it h in s o u th e r n A fr ic a n R e g io n. S in c e its p e r c a p ita in c o m e is th e h ig h e s t in th e r e g io n a n d d u e to th e c h a n g e in p o lit ic a l p o w e r from th e w h it e s to b la c k s - th e s o n s o f th e s o il - it is q u ite lik e ly th a t fo r in c r e a s e d w e lfa r e p r o je c ts, in th e a re o f h e a lth a n d s o c ia l in s u r a n c e, I n d ia n g o o d s e s p e c ia lly th e m e d ic in e s, p h a r m a c e u tic a ls, s u r g ic a l a p p lia n c e s w ill h a v e a g r e a t e x p o r t p o t e n tia l in S o u th A fr ic a. 6.9: Newly Identified Channels and Near future prospects of Indo- South African Trade.(along with specific recommendations of this researcher). 1. In th e y e a r , S o u th A fr ic a 's p r in c ip a l e x p o rts a r e v iz. g o ld, b a s e m e ta ls (1.6% ), m in e r a l p r o d u c ts (16.72% ), p la tin u m, f o o d, d r in k, a s b e s to s, a n d to b a c c o. 25

. I n d ia 's d e m a n d fo r a ll th e e x p o r ts o f S o u th A fr ic a e x c e p t fo o d, b e v e r a g e s is in e v it a b le, w h e r e a s w h a te v e r S o u th A fr ic a b u y s fro m

32 2. In th e s a m e y e a r, its m a in im p o r ts a re m a c h in e r y a n d e q u ip m e n t (27.1% ), b a s e m e ta ls 12.6%, c h e m ic a ls 10.5%, o il 8.6%.. I n d ia 's d e m a n d fo r a ll th e e x p o r ts o f S o u th A fr ic a e x c e p t fo o d, b e v e r a g e s is in e v it a b le, w h e r e a s w h a te v e r S o u th A fr ic a b u y s fro m th e r e s t o f th e w o r ld, m o s t o f it is b e in g p r o d u c e d a n d e x p o r te d b y I n d ia e x c e p t S o u th A fr ic a. T h e c r o s s - d e p e n d e n c e b e t w e e n I n d o -S o u th A fr ic a n tr a d e is th e r e b y e s ta b lis h e d, th e m a r k e tin g in it ia t iv e s a n d e ffo r ts fro m b o th th e s id e s are e s s e n t ia l to s tr e n g t h e n th e id e n t if ie d p o te n tia l g r o w t h o f th e tr a d e. 4. T h e n e w ly id e n t if ie d a r e a s o f p r o s p e c tiv e tr a d e b y th e s y s te m a tic s t u d ie s d o n e b y EX IM b a n k o f I n d ia, a re g a r m e n ts, w o v e n fa b r ic s, p h a r m a c e u tic a ls, d y e s tu ffs, r ic e, s o ftw a r e, ty r e s, le a th e r p r o d u c ts a n d tea. I n d ia e a r n s m o r e th a n R s c r o r e s fr o m th e e x p o r ts o f t h e s e ite m s fr o m th e r e s t o f th e w o r ld. T h e e x p e r ts h a v e m e a s u r e d th e p r o je c te d r ise in th e e x p o r t e a r n in g s o f t h e s e ite m s to b e s o m e w h e r e a r o u n d R s /- c r o r e s b y A D. In d ia - a t p r e s e n t h a s s ta r te d e x p o r tin g s o m e o f t h e s e ite m s a lr e a d y to S o u th A fr ic a b u t h a s n o t d o n e n a y m a r k e tin g c a m p a ig n in th a t d ir e c tio n. 5. W h a t is e s s e n t ia l a t th is p o in t o f tim e is th a t In d ia s h o u ld ta k e in it ia tiv e to s ig n a b ila te r a l a g r e e m e n t w ith S o u th A frica ; (sim ila r to T u r k e y, P e r g u a y, T a iw a n a n d H u n g a r y ). I n d ia n s h a v e to p a y 0% d u ty o n le a th e r g o o d s im p o r te d fr o m In d ia, w h e r e a s T u r k e y p a y s o n ly % n o m in a l d u ty d u e to th e a d v a n ta g e o f b ila te r a l tr a d e s a g r e e m e n t. 6. I n d ia 's m e r c h a n t /c a r g o s h ip p in g it s e lf is v e r y w e a k a n d n o t a d e q u a te ly s u p p o r t iv e to I n d ia 's tr a d e w ith o th e r c o u n tr ie s. 254

T ill 1 9 8 0 s, th e r e w e r e n o r e g u la r a n d d e p e n d a b le d ir e c t s h ip p in g s e r v ic e s b e t w e e n In d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a.

T h e y h a v e b r o u g h t g r e a t a d v a n t a g e s o f s a v in g tr a n sit tim e, c o s ts in c u r r e d a s fr e ig h t lo a d in g, u n lo a d in g a n d d e liv e r y.

33 T ill s, th e r e w e r e n o r e g u la r a n d d e p e n d a b le d ir e c t s h ip p in g s e r v ic e s b e t w e e n In d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a. In r e c e n t y e a r s, a t le a s t s h ip p in g lin e s h a v e s ta r te d o p e r a tin g b e t w e e n M u m b a i a n d D u r b a n d ir e c tly. T h e y h a v e b r o u g h t g r e a t a d v a n t a g e s o f s a v in g tr a n sit tim e, c o s ts in c u r r e d a s fr e ig h t lo a d in g, u n lo a d in g a n d d e liv e r y. T h e r e is a n e t s a v in g o f c o s t p e r c o n ta in e r b y a b o u t U S $ to a n d tr a n s it tim e s a v e d b y 1 to 15 d a y s; w h ic h r o u g h ly a h s b r o u g h t d o w n th e tr a n sp o r t c o s t b y 40%. I n d ia n g o o d s h a v e th e r e fo r e b e c o m e p r ic e - c o m p e t it iv e. T h is n e w d e v e lo p m e n t in s h ip p in g h a s o p e n e d u p v a s t p o t e n tia l o f n o t o n ly in d o - S o u t h A fr ic a n tr a d e b u t a ls o I n d ia 's tr a d e to fr o n tlin e la n d lo c k e d c o u n tr ie s o f S o u th e r n A fr ic a v iz Z a m b ia, M a la w i, Z im b a b w e, B o ts w a n a, S w a z ila n d, L e s o th o a n d N a m ib ia ; w h ic h m o s tly d e p e n d o n th e ir e x p o r ts a n d im p o r ts v ia th e c h a n n e ls o f D u r b a n p o r t a n d C a p e p o r t o f S o u th A fr ic a. 7. T h e r e are n e t c o s t a n d tr a n sit tim e s a v in g s in th e ir im p o r t s /e x p o r t s v ia D u r b a n p o r t o f S o u th A fr ic a, c o m p a r e d to B eira p o r t o f M o z a m b iq u e. B o ts w a n a 's tr a n sit tim e is s a v e d b y 60%, Z im b a b w e 's tr a n sit tim e is s a v e d b y 2% in s h ip p in g fr o m M u m b a i to G o b o r o n e a n d H a ra r e v ia D u r b a n p o r t (v ia B eria p o r t b o th o f th e m r e q u ir e m o r e c o s t, a s w e ll a s, tr a n sit tim e ). 8. P r o s p e c ts o f t e c h n o lo g y tr a n sfe r a n d jo in t v e n tu r e in th e f ie ld s o f ir o n a n d s te e l, fu e l a n d fiv e sta r h o t e l h a v e r e c e n tly m a te r ia lis e d d u e to th e d e a ls b e t w e e n In d ia n G o v e r n m e n t a n d S o u th A fr ic a 's ISC O R a n d S A S O L s te e l c o m p a n ie s fo r u s in g 'Sasol synthol process' o f p r o d u c in g fu e l fro m c o a l. I n d ia 's 255

S o u th A fr ic a w ill r e q u ir e I n d ia 's jo in t v e n t u r e s a n d m a n a g e m e n t e x p e r tis e in h o s p ita lity in d u s t r y.

34 m in in g in d u s t r y w ill im m e n s e ly b e b e n e f it e d b y t e c h n o lo g y tr a n sfe r a g r e e m e n ts w it h S o u th A fr ic a. T h e to u r is m in S o u th A fr ic a is r is in g in r e c e n t y e a r s. S o u th A fr ic a w ill r e q u ir e I n d ia 's jo in t v e n t u r e s a n d m a n a g e m e n t e x p e r tis e in h o s p ita lity in d u s t r y. I n d ia 's g e m a n d je w e lle r y in d u s tr y r e q u ir e s im p o r ts o f g o ld a n d d ia m o n d p r e c io u s s to n e s fro m S o u th A fr ic a. 9. In d ia h a s s e r io u s d e f ic ie n c y in p o t a s s ic fe r tilis e r s. O u t o f to ta l im p o r te d fe r tiliz e r s th e y a c c o u n t fo r n e a r ly 45%. A t p r e s e n t, In d ia im p o r ts r o c k p h o s p h a te s a n d p h o p h o r ic a c id fr o m J o r d a n a n d M o r o c c o. I n s te a d, it w ill b e c h e a p e r to b u y th e m. S o u th A fr ic a b e c a u s e S o u th A fr ic a h a s th e la r g e s t r e s e r v e s o f r o c k p h o s p h a te s in th e w o r ld, b u t h a s a s m a lle r sh a r e o f 4% in th e to ta l w o r ld e x p o r ts o f th e s e ite m s. S o u th A fr ic a w ill b e v e r y m u c h w illin g to s u p p ly th e m to In d ia d u e to a b u n d a n c e o f e x p o r ta b le s u r p lu s a n d p o o r d e m a n d in th e w o r ld m a r k e t. 10. I n d ia 's w o o le n in d u s tr y is o n e o f th e h ig h e s t e x p o r t e a r n e r in d u s t r ie s, b u t s u p p lie s fro m th e s h o r ta g e o f quality wool clips'. S in c e S o u th A fr ic a 's 'C a p e c lip s ' are id e a l for to p m a k in g, In d ia h a s a p p r o a c h e d th e 'Woolex' - th e a p e x b o d y o f w o o le n in d u s tr y o f S o u th A fr ic a a n d h a s s u c c e s s f u lly m a d e d e a ls o f p u r c h a s e s fro m S o u th A frica; w h ic h w i l l b e a b e tte r b a r g a in th a n b u y in g fro m N e w Z e a la n d - w h ic h I n d ia is d o in g fo r a n u m b e r o f y e a r s in th e p a s t d e c a d e s. 11. A c c o r d in g to m a r k e t s u r v e y s c o n d u c te d b y S o u th A fr ic a n s u p e r m a r k e ts v iz. W o o lw o r th s, E d g a r d s, M e ltz s u c c e s s etc. In d ia h a s tr e m e n d o u s ly e n v ia b le p r o s p e c ts to in c r e a s e h er e x p o r ts o f g a r m e n ts; b y s e c u r in g la r g e r m a r k e t s h a r e s b y o v e r ta k in g th e w e a k e r c h a lle n g e p o s e d b y th e c o m p e t itio n o f 256

S o u th E a st A s ia n C o u n tr ie s, d u r in g th e ir p r e s e n t fin a n c ia l a n d c u r r e n c y c r is is. 1 2.

35 S o u th E a st A s ia n C o u n tr ie s, d u r in g th e ir p r e s e n t fin a n c ia l a n d c u r r e n c y c r is is A c c o r d in g to a n o th e r e x p e r t s tu d y ; th e d e m a n d fo r I n d ia 's p h a r m a a n d m e d ic in e p r o d u c ts is lik e ly to s p o r a d ic a lly r ise b e c a u s e M a n d e la 's r e g im e is p la n n in g to e x p a n d th e g o v e r n m e n t s p e n d in g o n h e a lth c a r e a lo n g w ith o th e r s o c ia l o v e r h e a d s. G o v e r n m e n t p u r c h a s e s a b o u t 0 to 40% o f th e c o u n t r y 's to ta l im p o r ts. S in c e I n d ia 's m e d ic in e s a re, as g o o d a s, E u r o p e a n m e d ic in e s in q u a lity a n d y e t a re v e r y c h e a p th e r e fo r e I n d ia n p h a r m a c e u tic a l in d u s tr y h a s a v a s t m a r k e t o p e n in S o u th A fr ic a. 1. In th e r e c e n t y e a r s, b e c a u s e o f v e r y s tr ic t a n t i- p o llu tio n c o n t r o l la w s in th e w e s t, In d ia h a s e m e r g e d as o n e o f th e le a d e r c h e m ic a l a n d p a in ts in d u s tr ie s. I n d ia n p a in ts a re far c h e a p e r th a n th o s e o f M N C s fro m E u r o p e. In r e c e n t y e a r s, A fr ic a 's im p o r ts o f d y e s t u f f s a n d p a in ts fr o m In d ia s h o w a n u p w a r d tr e n d I n d ia h a s b e e n r a te d as th e to p r a n k in g c o u n tr y in s o ftw a r e in d u s t r y b y b o t h W o r ld B a n k s tu d ie s a n d s tu d ie s c o n d u c t e d b y U S c o m p a n ie s. S o u th A fr ic a r e c e n tly d e c id e d to b r in g computerisation' in d a ily o p e r a tio n s o f th e g o v e r n m e n t a n d s e m i-g o v e r n m e n t e s ta b lis h m e n ts. T h ere w ill b e in f in it e ly la r g e d e m a n d for s o ftw a r e p a c k a g e s r e q u ir e d b y g o v e r n m e n t o ffic e s, in d u s t r ie s, b a n k s, in s u r a n c e c o m p a n ie s, m in in g c o m p a n y, la r g e c o m m e r c ia l f a r m / p la n ta tio n s etc. 15. S o u th A fr ic a at p r e s e n t p u r c h a s e s B a sm a ti r ic e fro m P a k is ta n, w h ic h is o f in fe r io r q u a lity a n d h a s n o fr a g r a n c e o f I n d ia n v a r ie ty. In d ia w ill h a v e 'to c r e a te m a rk et' b y c o n v in c in g th e q u a lity c o n s c io u s S o u th A fr ic a n rich c o n s u m e r s, th e 257

36 c o m p a r a tiv e a s s e s s m e n t b e t w e e n t w o o p t io n s. S o is th e c a s e o f h ig h fla v o u r e d I n d ia n te a, e s p e c ia lly to b e m a r k e te d in th e a fflu e n t s e g m e n t s o f p o p u la t io n a n d sta r h o t e ls o f S o u th A fr ic a, w h e r e in c o n tin e n ta l to u r is ts s ta y. 16. I n d ia h a s m o n o p o ly in m a n u fa c tu r e o f n a tu r a l r u b b e r c r o s s - p ly ty r e s. I n d ia h a s a lr e a d y c a p tu r e d S o u th A fr ic a n m a r k e t a n d h e a d in g to w a r d s m o r e a n d m o r e e a r n in g s in th e r e c e n t y e a r s. S o u th A fr ic a im p o r ts 15 m illio n p a ir s o f f o o t w e a r fr o m E a st A s ia. I n d ia w it h h e r tr e m e n d o u s le a d in f o o tw e a r m a r k e t in E u r o p e c a n e a s ily c a p tu r e th is m a r k e t a lso I n d ia h a s d e v e lo p e d r e la tio n s w it h s a t e l lit e / f r o n t l in e c o u n t r ie s o f th e S o u th e r n A fr ic a o u t o f th e m Z a m b ia 's tr a d e w it h I n d ia is th e h ig h e s t, n e x t p o s it io n b e lo n g s to Z im b a b w e, th ir d to S w a z ila n d a lo n g w it h L e s o th o a n d B o ts w a n a T h e s p e c if ic a r e a s o f I n d ia 's e x p o r t p r o s p e c ts to S o u th e r n A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s are m a c h in e r y, p h a r m a, r u b b e r tr a n s p o r t, v e h ic le s, m a n u fa c tu r e o f m e ta ls, e le c tr o n ic a n d e n g in e e r in g g o o d s, p la s tic, n y lo n, s y n t h e tic a n d P V C g o o d s, g la s s a n d g la s s w a r e, g a r m e n ts, p a in ts a n d d y e s tu ffs, t e x t ile s, s o ftw a r e, le a th e r a n d f o o tw e a r a n d b a n k in g a n d in fo r m a tio n t e c h n o lo g y. In r e tu r n, I n d ia c a n b u y m e ta l o r e s, p h o s p h a te s, a s b e s to s, w o o l, d ia m o n d, g o ld, c o p p e r, p r e c io u s s to n e s, fe r r o a llo y s, n o n fe r r o u s m e ta ls, c h r o m e, u r a n iu m fr o m th e c o u n t r ie s fr o m th e S o u th e r n R e g io n o f S o u th A fr ic a w h ic h are e x tr a o r d in a r ily v e r y r ic h in th e m in e r a l w e a lt h o f th e W o r ld. B o th A fr ic a n c o u n tr ie s a n d In d ia are r u n n in g in t w o d iffe r e n t p a r a lle l r o u te s t o w a r d s th e d e s tin a t io n s o f EEC a n d a d v a n c e d c o u n t r ie s o f th e w o r ld. EEC a n d r ic h c o u n tr ie s h a p p e n to b e th e m a jo r tr a d in g p a r tn e r s o f b o th In d ia a n d S o u th A fr ic a n c o u n t r ie s in th e ir 258

37 e x p o r ts a s w e ll a s, im p o r ts. A t p r e s e n t th e ir tr a d e r u n n in g a fte r far o f f c o u n tr ie s is in s ig n if ic a n t in v o lu m e a n d v a lu e ; b u t if b o th c h a n g e th e ir r o u te s a n d d ir e c tio n s s lig h t ly in f a v o u r o f th e ir n e ig h b o u r h o o d ; th e r e w i l l b e r e m a r k a b le g a in s o f th e ir m u tu a l tr a d e a n d in te r d e p e n d e n c e. 6.10; Main Conclusion Based on Tally of the results of the Survey in the Context of the Objectives and the Hypothesis : TALLY A ll th e o b je c tiv e s o f th e s u r v e y (r e fe r c h a p te r 1: I n tr o d u c tio n ) h a v e b e e n p u r s u e d r ig o r o u s ly a n d fu lly. T h e o b je c tiv e o f p r o v id in g e x a c t u n d e r s t a n d in g o f th e g e o g r a p h ic a l, s o c ia l, e th n ic, c u ltu r a l, p o lit ic a l a n d e c o n o m ic p r o file s o f th e s e le c t e d c o u n t r ie s w a s f u lf ille d in c h a p te r n o. 2. T h e o b je c tiv e o f id e n t if ic a t io n o f e c o n o m ic s tr e n g th s a n d w e a k n e s s e s o f th e m w a s p u r s u e d in C h a p te r 2 a n d c h a p te r. T h e a n a ly s is o f th e m a c r o e c o n o m ic tr e n d s in th e s e le c te d c o u n tr ie s fo r a p e r io d o f la s t d e c a d e, a s p e r th e o b je c tiv e n o., h a s b e e n d o n e in C h a p te r. D e t a ile d d a ta b a s e d a n a ly s is o f tr e n d s or th e w o r ld tr a d e, th e m ajor p la y e r s a n d th e ir s h a r e s in th e to ta l w o r ld tr a d e, th e c o m p s it io n, v o lu m e a n d v a lu e o f th e tra d e o f e a c h s e le c t e d c o u n tr y p a r tic u la r ly w it h I n d ia a n d th e r e s t o f th e w o r ld h a s b e e n fu r n is h e d as p e r th e o b je c tiv e n o.4 in C h a p te r 4. T h e d e t a ile d d a ta r e g a r d in g I n d o -B o ts w a n a, I n d o - Z im b a b w e a n d I n d o -S o u th A fr ic a tr a d e a n d th e m a jo r c h a n g e s in th e tr e n d s o f th e o n g o in g a n d e x p a n d in g tr a d e h a s b e e n p r o c e s s e d a n d th e f in d in g s w e r e p r o v id e d in C h a p te r 5, in a c c o r d a n c e w it h th e o b je c tiv e n o.5. T h e id e n tif ic a t io n o f s p e c ific a r e a s o f m u tu a l 259

c o m p a tib ility a n d g a in s h a s b e e n d o n e b y th e a n a ly tic a l tr e a tm e n t o f th e C h a p te r n o.5 to f u lfil th e o b je c tiv e n o.5. 6.

38 c o m p a tib ility a n d g a in s h a s b e e n d o n e b y th e a n a ly tic a l tr e a tm e n t o f th e C h a p te r n o.5 to f u lfil th e o b je c tiv e n o ; M A IN CONCLUSION: T h e h y p o t h e s is h a s b e e n v e r if ie d t e s te d a n d it is f o u n d th a t 'I n d o - S o u th e r n A fr ic a T rad e' h a s v e r y b r ig h t p r o s p e c ts is n o m o r e a s ta te m e n t o f m e r e w is h f u l th in k in g b u t it h a s b e e n p r o v e d o n th e b a s is o f s u b s ta n tia l e v id e n c e o f a c tu a l fa c ts a n d f ig u r e s a n d th e d a ta -p r o c e s s e d r e s u lts o f th is r e se a r c h s u r v e y e s ta b lis h in g th e fa v o u r a b le tr e n d s, far m o r e th a n c o m p la c e n t b e lie f (r e fe r C h a p te r 5 ). It h a s b e e n a ls o f o u n d th a t tr a d e b e t w e e n In d ia a n d S o u th e r n A fr ic a n C o u n tr ie s h a s b e e n e x p a n d in g o f its o w n a n d n o t b y s y s te m a tic e ffo r ts o f a g g r e s s iv e m a r k e tin g b y b o th th e p a r tie s. T h e tr a d e b e t w e e n Z im b a b w e a n d In d ia h a s in c r e a s e d m o r e th a n 16 tim e s d u r in g P e r c e n ta g e r ise o f (o n a n a v e r a g e 160% p e r a n n u m g r o w t h r a te) I n d ia n e x p o r ts to B o ts w a n a is e q u a l to n e a r ly 0% p e r c e n t p e r a n n u m a b o u t. In th e y e a r , In d ia e x p o r te d g o o d s w o r th a b o u t R s c r o r e s to S o u th A fr ic a, R s. 2 c r o r e s to Z im b a b w e a n d R s.2.7 c r o r e s to B o ts w a n a. W ith s u c h h ig h g r o w t h r a te s p e r a n n u m in I n d ia 's e x p o r ts to t h e s e c o u n tr ie s, it is e x p e c te d th a t w it h in n e x t d e c a d e, In d ia w ill e a r n a t le a s t m o r e th a n th r e e tim e s, w h a t s h e a t p r e s e n t e a r n s fr o m th e m S U G G E S T IO N S 1) In d ia a n d e v e r y s e le c te d c o u n tr y fro m th e S o u th e r n A fr ic a s h o u ld e n c o u r a g e th e s t u d ie s o f th e n e a r -fu tu r e p r o s p e c ts o f tr a d e b e t w e e n -s im ila r to th e m o d e l s tu d ie s o f E X IM B a n k o f In d ia ; as w e ll a s, th is r e se a r c h s u r v e y in o r d e r to id e n t if y s p e c if ic a lly th e a r e a s o f tr a d e w h ic h h a v e m a x im u m 260

S o u th A fr ic a r e c e n tly a fte r th e n u c le a r t e s t o f In d ia in M a y 1 9 9 8 - h a s s t o o d fir m ly in s u p p o r t o f In d ia a n d h a s c o n d e m n e d th e p o lic ie s

39 c o m p a tib ility a n d g a in s to b o th th e p a r tie s o n th e b a s is o f th e p r in c ip le o f c o m p a r a tiv e c o s t a d v a n ta g e. 2) T h e r e s h o u ld b e b ila te r a l tr a d e a g r e e m e n ts b e t w e e n th e m to g r a n t s p e c ia l a n d fa v o u r a b le tr e a tm e n t to ta r iffs a n d c u s to m s. S o u th A fr ic a r e c e n tly a fte r th e n u c le a r t e s t o f In d ia in M a y h a s s t o o d fir m ly in s u p p o r t o f In d ia a n d h a s c o n d e m n e d th e p o lic ie s o f im p o s in g s a n c tio n s d e c la r e d b y U S, J a p a n a n d le a d in g E u r o p e a n c o u n tr ie s. A fr ie n d in n e e d is a fr ie n d in d e e d! S o u th A fr ic a, Z im b a b w e a n d B o ts w a n a h a v e a lw a y s r e g a r d e d I n d ia is th e ir c lo s e s t fr ie n d. U n d e r th e s e c ir c u m s ta n c e s, in it ia tiv e s h o u ld b e ta k e n to im p le m e n t tr a d e a g r e e m e n ts. ) B o th th e p a r tie s s h o u ld s e n d d e le g a t io n s, v is it th e c o u n tr ie s, a n d d e v e lo p tr a d e c o n ta c ts. O b ta in tra d e d ir e c tio n s fro m th e g o v e r n m e n t, a s w e ll a s, c h a m b e r s o f C o m m e r c e, c o n d u c t f ie ld in v e s t ig a t io n a l m a r k e tin g s u r v e y s, o r g a n iz e tr a d e fa ir s, d is p a tc h tr a d e b r o c h u r e s, in fo r m a tio n p a m p h le ts, p r ic e lis ts, h o ld s e m in a r s a n d c o n fe r e n c e s o f th e lis t e d e x p o r te r s a n d im p o r te r s, n e g o t ia t e th e d e a ls o f tr a n sfe r o f t e c h n o lo g y, jo in t v e n t u r e s, fo r e ig n d ir e c t in v e s tm e n t, p r o je c t fin a n c e e tc. e tc. in s h o r t th e r e s h o u ld b e d e lib e r a te a n d s y s te m a tic e ffo r ts o f a g g r e s s iv e m a r k e tin g ; w h ic h w ill b e c o n d u c iv e to r a is e th e v o lu m e, c o m p o s it io n a n d e a r n in g s o f b o th th e p a r tie s. 4) A ll th e fo u r c o u n tr ie s (in c lu d in g In d ia ) h a v e b e e n tr a d in g m o s tly w it h E E C, U.S., Jap an for in c r e a s in g th e ir e x p o r ts, as w e ll as, im p o r ts. T h e c o u n tr ie s o f S o u th A fr ic a h a v e b e e n im p o r tin g m a c h in e r y, t e c h n o lo g y, e le c tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t, ty r e s, e le c tr o n ic s, s o ftw a r e, p h a r m a c e u tic a ls, m a c h in e t o o ls e tc., fro m EEC a n d U S; in s te a d th e y n o w c a n th in k o f th e 261

EEC a n d U S ; in s te a d, I n d ia c a n a s s e s s th e c o m p a r a tiv e g a in s o f im p o r tin g th e m fr o m A fr ic a n fr ie n d ly c o u n tr ie s b y in itia tin g th e b ila te r a

40 c o m p a r a tiv e c o s t a d v a n ta g e p o s s ib le b y im p o r t in g th e m fro m I n d ia. R e c ip r o c a lly, In d ia im p o r ts a lo t o f p o t a s s iu m, c r u d e, g o ld, c o p p e r, m e ta l o r e s, p r e c io u s s to n e s, c h e m ic a ls, p h o s p h o r ic a c id fro m EEC a n d U S ; in s te a d, I n d ia c a n a s s e s s th e c o m p a r a tiv e g a in s o f im p o r tin g th e m fr o m A fr ic a n fr ie n d ly c o u n tr ie s b y in itia tin g th e b ila te r a l tr a d e r e la tio n s. T o s u m u p th e r e is a la c k in g in th e p e r fe c t a n d u p to d a te m a r k e t in t e llig e n c e a n d a c tiv e m o v e s fo r m u lt ip ly in g th e e x is tin g lu k e w a r m tr a d e a n d e c o n o m ic r e la tio n s b e t w e e n th e c o n c e r n e d p a r tie s. India's Trade with the Selected Countries Rs. Crores) India's Exports to Botswana Zimbabwe South Africa c r o r e s 2.7 c r o r e s N.A c r o r e s 4 5. c r o r e s c r o r e s India's Imports from c r o r e s 2.4 c r o r e s N.A N.A 2.7 c r o r e s N.A 262

7 0 Botswana Zimbabwe South Afnca D1984 199 India's IMPORTS

41 India's Trade with the Selected Countries India's EXPORTS to S Botswana Zimbabwe South Afnca D India's IMPORTS from ^ B1984 H I 2. 0 Botswana Zimbabwe South Africa

LU N C H IN C LU D E D

LU N C H IN C LU D E D Week 1 M o n d a y J a n u a ry 7 - C o lo u rs o f th e R a in b o w W e w ill b e k ic k in g o ff th e h o lid a y s w ith a d a y fu ll o f c o lo u r! J o in u s fo r a ra n g e o f a rt, s p o rt