NORWEGIAN MARITIME DIRECTORATE

Transcription

1 PAME Snap shot Analysis NORWEGIAN MARITIME DIRECTORATE PAME Snap Shot Analysis of Maritime Activities in the Arctic Revision No. 01 REPORT NO Page 1

2 PAME Snap shot Analysis Table of Contents 1 Conclusive Summary Scope of the Snap shot analysis Background Maritime activity Data Input and Parameters Results from the Snap Shot Analysis Emissions to air Leakage of TBT Waste, sewage and garbage Risk operations Introduction Previous work on shipping in the Arctic within PAME Objective of the Snap shot analysis Description of Contents of the PAME snap shot analysis Calculations to be performed Methodologies and data used Snap Shot analysis; Input data Input data sources Data Input used Discussions on data quality Shipping in the Arctic Introduction Shipping activities in the Arctic Seasonal variations Import and Export in the Arctic Expected future trends General cargo traffic Expected future trends Fisheries Expected future trends Tourism; Cruise and Passenger vessels Expected future trends Tugs, Research and Icebreakers Expected future trends Calculations of emissions to air Global geographical distribution of marine emissions Results Estimates of emission to air in the Arctic A statistical emission model approach Results Discussion Calculations of TBT Emission A statistical emission model approach Results Calculations of sewage, oily waste and noise Calculation of generated waste Results Airborne and waterborne noise Airborne Noise Waterborne noise Concerns related to maritime activities Accidents in the Arctic Environmental Impact of shipping activities Regular operations Accidental events Environmental resources at risk Maritime operations at risk Operational events Accidental events...43 Page 2

3 PAME Snap shot Analysis Risk reducing measures Adequate Measures Adequate Measures Availability of Adequate measures References Appendix 1 - General Background of the Arctic Definition of the Arctic Arctic Marine Environment Indigenous people in the Arctic Industrial activities in the Arctic Sources of contamination within or in close proximity of the Arctic Contaminant pathways Appendix 2- Existing legal and other instruments relating to shipping activities in the Arctic Appendix 3 - Questionnaire Bulk and Tankers General cargo and Container vessels Cruise vessels, Passenger vessels and Fishing vessels Icebreakers/Tugs and Other vessels Tugging Appendix 4 Input to the modelling General Russia Canada Finland Denmark Iceland Norway Sweden USA Aggregated data sets Appendix 5 Valuable Ecosystem Components VECs - of the Arctic Appendix 6 General description of waste and garbage from maritime activities Sludge Oily bilge water Waste lubricating oil Solid oily waste Sewage Garbage...72 Page 3

4 PAME Snap shot Analysis 1 CONCLUSIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Scope of the Snap shot analysis The objective of the work is to provide a report encompassing elements such as: outline a draft snapshot analysis of shipping activities in the Arctic including future trends Identify and prioritize the environmental problems related to current and potential shipping activities in the Arctic. In order to prepare PAME discussions on shipping in the Arctic, the consultant shall also: Identify and assess the adequacy of current measures for addressing the problems identified and identify the possible gaps Consider appropriate measures to fill the gaps identified and provide recommended actions. The snap shot analysis is produced by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) on behalf of the Norwegian Maritime Directorate and the Norwegian Ministry of Environment. 1.2 Background Based on the conclusions of previous work, it has been found that sufficient information is not readily available with regard to present and future shipping activities neither in the Arctic nor in relation to associated potential effects to the marine environment. This is partly the result of lacking compatibility in data on current shipping. It is also a result of limited knowledge on the future expansion of shipping associated with the Northern Sea Route, oil and gas developments, specially in Norway (offshore in the Barents Sea) and in Russia (land based and offshore and mining). These activities are however expected to increase and hereby increasing the shipping activity in the region. The conceptual design of a data reporting and sharing system for the Arctic region, including identification of relevant data and data sources, routines for data exchange and technical solution for analysis of data selected was outlined in Prior to a decision on the type of data system and level of details needed, a snap shot analysis on present status of the impact from the maritime activities to the marine ecosystems of the Arctic environment was carried out. The following is a documentation of the snap shot analysis of the maritime activities in the Arctic. Page 1

5 PAME Snap shot Analysis 1.3 Maritime activity Major navigation routes and ports in the Arctic are given in figure 1.1. North Alaska Sverdrup Basin Western Siberia Barents Sea Ports-of-call Navigation routes Oil fields Arctic fishing grounds Figure 1.1. Major ports and navigation routes in the Arctic, sources TC (1995), PAME (1996), INSROP (1998) and PAME questionnaire Geographical reference of fishing grounds have not been made available for USA and Russia. The maritime activity in the Arctic consists of: transport of general cargo and bulk (wet and dry) cargo, containers (assumed to increase in the future) fisheries (assumed to remain stable) tourism, including whale watching, cruise vessels / passenger vessels (assumed to increase in the future) research and other vessels (assumed to remain stable) transport of vessels for scrapping (assumed to increase in the future) icebreakers and tugs (assumed to increase) A major part of the maritime activities are related to general and bulk cargo, containers and fisheries. Page 2

6 PAME Snap shot Analysis 1.4 Data Input and Parameters Specified data input from the Arctic countries, quite clearly show that for the region as a whole, detailed and consistent data of requested parameters are not available. However, individual countries have data at various levels of details available, although not easily accessible. A snap shot analysis has been performed for selected types of vessels and associated environmental impact. Figures are presented for dry cargo, wet cargo, general cargo, fishing vessels and icebreakers/ tugs. The data sets made available for the snap shot analysis provide general information on trade and operational pattern. The estimates are empirically achieved. The following parameters are included: geographical vessels densities annual operation hours number of vessels by ship type number of crew / passengers per vessel type and size distribution of vessels in size groups number and length of voyages Identified relevant and adequate parameters for addressing the potential environmental impact of the maritime activity are given in table 1.1. Table 1.1. Proposed adequate parameters for assessing and analysing the possible environmental impact of maritime activities. Parameter Comments Priority Ship type Number of Travels per ship size category It is necessary to differentiate by ship type due to different operational patterns. Ship types represent different discharges and risks. An analysis should differentiate by ship size categories due to different operational patterns. No of vessels per ship size category Number of vessels and Sum DWT or GT in each size category addresses the volume bias. 1 Sum DWT or GT per ship size 1 category Number of Crew/Passengers Number of crew and passengers give input to analysis of volume of sewage, garbage and wastes of shipping operations. Number of Port Hours Number of Port Hours and Operating Hours per size 1 Number of Operating Hours category addresses the operation pattern of the fleet and hereby affect analysis of operational impacts. 1 Number of vessels per hull/bottom type Number of vessel per age class The measure on hull / bottom type will give input to analysis of possible accidental risk. Age class differentiation will give input to engine efficiency and hereby calculations on emissions to air. The measure also gives input to analysis of future scrapping frequency and possible accidental risk. Table 1.2 presents aggregation of data received and collected for the analysis. Details on the data are given in appendix Page 3

7 PAME Snap shot Analysis Table 1.2 Arctic fleet numbers used in the modelling. Type Number of vessels All <5000 DWT >5000 DWT WC DC FV IC/TUG 48* 22* 26* Sum * for icebreakers and tugs the figures are in GT. 1.5 Results from the Snap Shot Analysis Impacts from long-term regular discharges from maritime activities are of major environmental concern. The conclusions from previous work indicate that at present the impacts in the Arctic generated by normal operational discharges of oil, sewage and other wastes are low. However, long-term effects of chronic low level contaminants are not fully researched on Arctic species. A precautionary approach should be adopted and until research can prove low or no effect due to regular discharges from shipping activities, these activities should be assessed and controlled. The expected increase in shipping activity in the Arctic addresses also the need for measures and control with respect to operational discharges. Presently severe acute marine pollution due to accidental events is not often reported for the Arctic region. However, the potential risk of accidents increases with frequency of voyages and assessments indicate increased risk of accidents in iceinfected areas. The expected increase in maritime activities in the Arctic region implies increased risk of accidents. The need for ensuring sufficient vessel standards is stressed. Further more contingency planning are recommended evaluated and assessed. In the following a summary of the results of estimates of emissions to air, TBT emissions and produced waste and sewage is presented. The numbers used are presented in appendix 4 where table presents the aggregated data sets. It should be noted that the results are highly affected by parameters as: number of operating days operational profile number of vessels Inaccuracy related to the produced figures for these parameters will affect the quality of the results of the estimates. As an example the data for Russia can illustrate this. For Russia the INSROP data sets have been used as data input. The reason for this is that these data sets are new and produced through substantial work. The INSROP data sets indicate that Russia holds a major part of the total Arctic fleet (ref. table 14.9 and 14.10). However, the size of the Russian Arctic fleet produced by INSROP diverges Page 4

8 PAME Snap shot Analysis largely to the figures produced by PAME in If the data sets of PAME (1996) had been used for Russia the total figures on estimated environmental impact would have been quit different. It should also be noted that data on the USA share of the Arctic fleet is not provided for the analysis. Hence the figures produced are expected to be underestimated Emissions to air The estimates of emissions to air show that of merchant traffic, dry cargo is the most significant contributor. Dry cargo carriers are dominating by number as well as by emissions. However, compared with the global marine consumption the Arctic consumption is only approximately 1 %. Fishing vessels contribute to a major part of the consumption of fuel and hereby represent a considerable input to emissions to air. A main reason for this fact is due to the operational profile of fishing vessels. This is also expected due to a large number of vessels with a high number of operation hours. Some of the larger fishing vessels also consume considerable volume fuel due to a higher operational profile (especially factory vessel). It should be noted that many smaller fishing vessels (< 30 meters) are operating on seasonal basis. However, in the calculations all fishing vessels are considered operating on annual terms. The bias in estimated emissions to air with respect to fishing vessels is also due to this fact. Due to the variable level of detail in statistics (number of vessels, type and size distribution) and the lack of statistics for some regions the estimated values presented should be handled with some caution. The environmental impact of emissions to air for some emission components (NO x, SO x ) will depend upon the existing background concentrations in the area. An area experiencing low background levels (low traffic density) might be more vulnerable for an increased load than identical increase in an already polluted area (Isaksen, IPCC 1999). Hence, assessments looking at increased traffic density in such low load areas will require a more detailed and advanced approach Leakage of TBT Emitted TBT to the seas of the Arctic is estimated to be in the range of 2-4 ton/year. The emission of TBT world wide is estimated to be in the range of ton/year (2 4 g/cm 2 /day) and the total wetted area about m 2 (DNV 1999). The main contribution vessel categories are oil tankers, bulk carriers and general cargo vessels. By comparing the Arctic and world wide emission of TBT, the Arctic contribution is only about 0.3 %, and dry cargo vessels are the dominating category. The results include only wet-, dry cargo, icebreaker/tug and fishing vessels, and the estimated TBT emission may therefore be too low. However, use of TBT on smaller vessels has been banned since 1990 (this ban is not global, but widely accepted). In addition Arctic vessels may use paints with a lower leaching rate due to colder water, and a leaching rate of 2 g/cm 2 /day is likely. Page 5

9 PAME Snap shot Analysis Waste, sewage and garbage Estimates of produced waste, sewage and garbage indicate volumes of m 3 /year depending upon what type of wastes that are considered. It should be emphasised that the figures represent potentially produced amounts and do not reflect what is discharged or what is actually delivered ashore. In addition, the large fraction of small fishing vessels may give a too high contribution. Table7.1. Estimated generated waste in the Arctic, based on fleet statistics for Type Sludge Bilge Sewage Garbage Solid oil waste Waste oil (m 3 /year) (m 3 /year) (ton/year) (m 3 /year) (ton/year) (m 3 /year) ICEBR./TU G WC DC FV SUM IC/Tug-Icebreaker / Tugs WC-Wet cargo DG- Dry cargo FV-Fishing vessels 1.6 Risk operations Table 1.3 presents maritime operations expected to have a significant impact on the marine environment. Risk reducing measures can be found in amending IMO instruments and in the development of new instruments. National or local measures can also be a recommended strategy regarding some issues of concern. A process of analysing existing and possible new risk reducing measures is recommended. It is also recommended to co-operate with EPPR or other appropriate working groups. Page 6

10 T a b le 1.3 M a r itim e o p e r a tio n s e x p e c te d to h a v e s ig n ific a n t im p a c t o n th e m a r in e e n v ir o n m e n t. P r io r itie s fo r d is c u s s in g P A M E r e s p o n s e a c tio n s a r e in d ic a te d b y th e n u m b e r s : 1 : a c tio n s s h o u ld b e c o n s id e r e d b y P A M E o r 2 : a c tio n s a r e n o t r e c o m m e n d e d a t p r e s e n t R e g u la r e v e n ts A c tiv ity /O p e r a tio n s I s s u e s o f c o n c e r n P A M E P r io r ity R e a s o n in g P A M E r e s p o n s e P r e s e n t F u tu r e 1. O n b o a rd p ro d u c tio n o f o ily w a s te s, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e S h o rta g e o f re c e p tio n fa c ilitie s Ille g a l d is c h a rg e s to s e a O n b o a rd in c in e ra tio n 1 1 P r e s e n t: L o n g o p e ra tio n p e rio d s a t s e a im p ly w a s te s to ra g e p ro b le m s. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : L o n g o p e ra tio n p e rio d s a t s e a im p ly w a s te s to ra g e p ro b le m s. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. O b s e rv e im p le m e n ta tio n o f M A R P O L A n n e x e s e n c o u ra g e e n te r in to fo rc e a ll M A R P O L A n n e x e s. 2. D is c h a rg e o f b a lla s t w a te r o f fo re ig n o rig in R is k o f re d u c tio n in b io d iv e rs ity 2 1 P r e s e n t: lo w a m o u n t o f fo re ig n b a lla s t w a te r d is c h a rg e. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : e x p e c te d h ig h e r v o lu m e s o f b a lla s t w a te r d is c h a rg e d d u e to in c re a s e d ta n k e r a c tiv ity. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. In lig h t o f th e IM O d e v e lo p m e n ts id e n tify th e n e e d fo r A rc tic m e a s u re s o n b a lla s t w a te r. 3. R e le a s e o f T B T fro m a n ti-fo u lin g p a in ts R is k o f re d u c tio n in b io d iv e rs ity 2 2 P r e s e n t: s m a ll a m o u n ts o f la rg e v e s s e ls (> 2 5 m ) h e n c e lo w T B T in p u t to th e e n v iro n m e n t. F u tu r e : e x p e c te d b a n in u s e o f T B T a s a n a n ti-fo u lin g a g e n t in (p h a s e d o u t ). P A M E s h o u ld o b s e rv e IM O d e v e lo p m e n ts a n d e n c o u ra g e im p le m e n ta tio n o f in te rn a tio n a l m e a s u re s o n T B T 4. C ru is e s / P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls D is tu rb a n c e o f v u ln e ra b le re s o u rc e s 2 1 P r e s e n t: O n g o in g a c tiv ity is a t a n a c c e p ta b le le v e l P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : In c re a s e d a c tiv ity is o f c o n c e rn. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. A n a ly s e e x is tin g a n d p o s s ib le ris k re d u c in g m e a s u re s. D e v e lo p jo in t P A M E /C A F F p o lic y. P a g e 7

11 T a b le 1.3 c o n t. A c c id e n ta l e v e n ts A c tiv ity /O p e r a tio n s I s s u e s o f c o n c e r n P A M E P r io r ity R e a so n in g P A M E r e s p o n s e P r e se n t F u tu r e 5. L o a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g a c tiv itie s In c re a s e d ris k o f d isc h a rg e s o f o il a n d b ilg e w a te r 1 1 P r e se n t: C o m p le x o p e ra tio n s in v o lv in g h u m a n e le m e n t, te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n s o n b o a rd a n d lo a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g fa c ilitie s F u tu r e : C o m p le x o p e ra tio n s in v o lv in g h u m a n e le m e n t, te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n s o n b o a rd a n d lo a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g fa c ilitie s A n a ly s e e x is tin g a n d p o s s ib le ris k re d u c in g m e a su re s. D e v e lo p jo in t P A M E /E P P R p o lic y. 6. T a n k e r tra ffic Field Terminal Terminal Export / Import Transport of oil products having high potential impact in accidents 1 1 P r e se n t: The impact of one accident occurring is high. F u tu r e : The impact and consequence of one accident occurring is high. Increasing activity. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementations of the Polar Guidelines. Develop joint PAME/EPPR policy 7. Heavy bunker oil as cargo and fuel Heavy bunker oil has very high potential impact if discharged 1 1 P r e se n t: Heavy bunker oil is at present used on most types of vessels, i.e. incidents can occur in all parts of the Arctic where shipping activity takes place. The impact of one accident occurring is very high. F u tu r e : The expected increase in shipping activity strengthens the reasoning given above. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures Encourage implementations of the Polar Guidelines. Develop joint PAME/EPPR policy 8. Operation in areas of high ice concentration Increased accidental risk, hence increased risk of pollution 1 1 P r e se n t: More complex operation regime than open sea operations. F u tu r e : More complex operation regime than open sea operations. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementations of the Polar Guidelines. Develop joint PAME/EPPR policy 9. Tugging / Towing Increased accidental risk 2 1 P r e se n t: Low frequency of tugging/towing at present. F u tu r e : The activity is expected to increase in the future. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementations of the Polar Guidelines. Develop joint PAME/EPPR policy 10. Cruises / Passenger vessels Increased accidental risk in near ice or near shore operation 2 1 P r e se n t: Low frequency of cruises / Passenger at present. F u tu r e : The activity is expected to increase in the future. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementations of the Polar Guidelines. Develop joint PAME/EPPR policy P a g e 8

12 2 I N T R O D U C T I O N P A M E h a s id e n tifie d 6 g e n e ra l a re a s o f c o n c e rn w ith re s p e c t to p o llu tio n c o n trib u tio n in th e A rc tic e n v iro n m e n t. In a d d itio n, 4 m a in a c tiv itie s a re id e n tifie d g iv in g ris e to in p u t o f p o llu tio n. T h e s e a re g iv e n in ta b le 2.1. T a b le 2.1. G e n e r a l p o llu ta n ts a n d a c tiv itie s g iv in g r is e to th e s e in th e A r c tic r e g io n (P A M E ). G e n e r a l p o llu ta n ts in th e A r c tic 1. P e rs is te n t o rg a n ic p o llu ta n ts (P O P s ) 2. R a d io n u c lid e s 3. H e a v y m e ta ls 4. O il 5. A c id ific a tio n 6. N o is e A c tiv itie s g iv in g r is e to p o llu tio n in th e A r c tic L a n d -b a s e d a c tiv itie s D u m p in g o f w a s te s a t s e a O ffs h o re o il a n d g a s a c tiv itie s S h ip p in g a c tiv itie s P o llu tio n s o u rc e s b o th w ith in a n d o u ts id e th e A rc tic a re a is to b e c o n s id e re d b y P A M E. It h a s a ls o b e e n a g re e d to fo c u s o n c h ro n ic p o llu tio n, a s a c u te p o llu tio n is c o n s id e re d b y th e W o rk in g G ro u p o n E m e rg e n c y P re v e n tio n, P re p a re d n e s s a n d R e s p o n s e (E P P R ). H o w e v e r, c o n c e rn s re la te d to a c u te p o llu tio n w ill in th is c o n te x t b e c o n s id e re d b y P A M E, a m o n g o th e rs is s u e s re la te d to ris k fo r a c u te d is c h a rg e s. T h e w o rk s h o u ld b e g u id e d b y th e p re c a u tio n a ry a p p ro a c h. G e n e ra l d e s c rip tio n o f th e A rc tic is g iv e n in a p p e n d ix P r e v io u s w o r k o n s h ip p in g in th e A r c tic w ith in P A M E B a s e d o n th e c o n c lu s io n s o f p re v io u s w o rk, it h a s b e e n fo u n d th a t th e re is n o t d e ta ile d in fo rm a tio n w ith re g a rd to p re s e n t a n d fu tu re s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s o r in re la tio n to a s s o c ia te d p o te n tia l e ffe c ts to th e m a rin e e n v iro n m e n t in th e A rc tic. T h is is p a rtly d u e to la c k in g c o m p a tib ility in d a ta o n c u rre n t s h ip p in g. It is a ls o a re s u lt o f lim ite d k n o w le d g e o n th e fu tu re e x p a n s io n o f s h ip p in g a s s o c ia te d w ith th e N o rth e rn S e a R o u te (N S R ), o il a n d g a s d e v e lo p m e n ts s p e c ia lly in N o rw a y (o ffs h o re in th e B a re n ts S e a ) a n d in R u s s ia (la n d b a s e d a n d o ffs h o re ). T h e s e a c tiv itie s a re h o w e v e r, e x p e c te d to in c re a s e th e s h ip p in g a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic. R e c o m m e n d a tio n s fro m P A M E in M a rc h w e re th a t a ll A rc tic c o u n trie s s h o u ld jo in tly d e v e lo p a c o -o rd in a te d in fo rm a tio n s y s te m fo r c o lle c tio n a n d s h a rin g o f d a ta o n s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s a n d th e e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c ts th e re o f. A n a s s e s s m e n t o f th e p o te n tia l o f c u rre n t a c tiv itie s a n d fu tu re in c re a s e in s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s d u e to th e is s u e s o f c o n c e rn g iv e n a b o v e s h o u ld b e u n d e rta k e n. T h e a s s e s s m e n t s h o u ld in c lu d e c o lle c tio n o f in fo rm a tio n o n c u rre n t a c tiv itie s a n d p o s s ib le fu tu re a c tiv itie s. A s le a d c o u n try N o rw a y d e v e lo p e d a c o n c e p tu a l d e s ig n o f a d a ta re p o rtin g a n d s h a rin g s y s te m, in c lu d in g id e n tific a tio n o f re le v a n t d a ta a n d d a ta s o u rc e s, ro u tin e s fo r P a g e 9

13 d a ta e x c h a n g e a n d te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n fo r a n a ly s is o f d a ta s e le c te d. T h e s y s te m ; th e P A M E D a ta C o lle c tio n a n d S h a rin g S y s te m (P D C S S ), is d e s c rib e d in th e D N V -re p o rt N o : (D N V ). P rio ritie s w e re m a d e fo r d a ta re le v a n t fo r a s s e s s m e n ts o f p o te n tia l im p a c ts in th e in te rfa c e b e tw e e n th e g iv e n m a ritim e a c tiv itie s a n d th e A rc tic e n v iro n m e n t in th e lo n g a n d s h o rt te rm, a n d th e re b y b e in g a b le to p ro v id e b a c k g ro u n d fo r ra tio n a le a n d e n v iro n m e n ta l m a n a g e m e n t s tra te g ie s. B a s e d o n th is w o rk a s ta n d a rd is e d s e t o f d a ta fo rm a ts fo r in fo rm a tio n re le v a n t to th e P D C S S w a s p ro p o s e d. T h e re p o rt c o n c lu d e d th a t th e p ro p o s e d le v e l o f re p o rtin g in th e P D C S S w a s to o h ig h a n d a m b itio u s. T h is c o n c lu s io n h a s le a d to th e d e c is io n o n p e rfo rm in g a s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is o f th e s h ip p in g a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic. 2.2 O b je c tiv e o f th e S n a p s h o t a n a ly s is T h e o b je c tiv e o f th e w o rk is to p ro v id e a re p o rt e n c o m p a s s in g e le m e n ts s u c h a s : outline a draft snapshot analysis of shipping activities in the Arctic including future trends Identify and prioritize the environmental problems related to current and potential shipping activities in the Arctic. In order to prepare PAME discussions on shipping in the Arctic, the consultant shall also: Identify and assess the adequacy of current measures for addressing the problems identified and identify the possible gaps Consider appropriate measures to fill the gaps identified and provide recommended actions. 2.3 D e s c r ip tio n o f C o n te n ts o f th e P A M E s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is The snap shot analysis provides density estimates of status of the shipping activities in the Arctic. Furthermore the snap shot aim to identify environmental impacts/problems related to present and expected future shipping in the region outlining further steps necessary to be taken. The information used in the snap shot analysis is based on general knowledge of the maritime activities in the Arctic and detailed input on the Arctic maritime activities from the Arctic countries. The decision on type of information to be included in the analysis is based on the mandate of PAME, possible impact factors and recommendations provided by PAME in previous works. Table 2.1 presents different shipping operations and type of information related to these operations. T a b le 2.1. M a r itim e a c tiv itie s a n d ty p e o f in fo r m a tio n p r o p o s e d fo r th e s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is. I d e n tifie d c a s e s R e le v a n t in fo r m a tio n ty p e s Tankers engaged in onshore and offshore Number of vessels grouped by ship type, to be P a g e 1 0

14 o il a n d g a s a c tiv itie s G e n e ra l c a rg o tra n s p o rt B u lk T ra n s p o rt o f v e s s e l fo r s c ra p p in g C ru is e v e s s e ls / P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls C o n ta in e r v e s s e ls Ic e b re a k e rs F is h e rie s R e s e a rc h a n d o th e r v e s s e ls d e fin e d a n d g iv e n in q u e s tio n n a ire. M a in tra d e s o r fis h in g a re a s ; in te rn a l w a te rs a n d in te rn a tio n a l w a te rs L e n g th o f e a c h tra d e (n a u tic a l m ile s ), to b e c a lc u la te d b a s e d o n in p u t o n g e o g ra p h ic a l e x te n t o f tra d e s. N u m b e r o f tra v e ls p e r tra d e a n d s h ip ty p e (o r o p e ra tin g h o u rs fo r fis h in g v e s s e l) N u m b e r o f v e s s e l in a g e g ro u p s a n d tra d e N u m b e r o f v e s s e ls h a v in g, s in g le, d o u b le h u ll/b o tto m a n d ic e p ro te c tio n. N u m b e r o f p a s s e n g e rs C a lc u la tio n s to b e p e r fo r m e d T h e fo llo w in g c a lc u la tio n s a re p e rfo rm e d b a s e d o n th e d a ta c o lle c te d. T o g e th e r w ith th e d a ta s e ts p ro v id e d, g e n e ra l e m p iric a l a s s u m p tio n s a re a d o p te d w h e n re q u ire d. E m is s io n s to a ir (C O 2, N O x, S O x, V O C (re s u ltin g fro m e m is s io n d u rin g tra v e l, v e n tila tio n o f o il ta n k s a n d e v a p o ra tio n d u rin g h a n d lin g )) N o is e L e a k a g e o f a n ti-fo u lin g a g e n ts (T B T ) V o lu m e o f s e w a g e V o lu m e o f g a rb a g e V o lu m e o f o ily w a s te s 2.4 M e th o d o lo g ie s a n d d a ta u s e d T h e d a ta s e ts u s e d a re b a s e d o n in p u t fro m th e A rc tic c o u n trie s (q u e s tio n n a ire ) a n d g e n e ra l g lo b a l s ta tis tic s. In p u t fro m th e A rc tic c o u n trie s is b a s e d o n a q u e s tio n n a ire p re v io u s ly d is trib u te d a n d re p o rts p ro d u c e d b y P A M E. G lo b a l s ta tis tic s a re re trie v e d fro m d a ta b a s e s m a n a g e d b y la rg e r in s titu tio n s s u c h a s F a irp la y, L lo y d s, N a tio n a l C e n te r fo r A tm o s p h e ric R e s e a rc h (N C A R ) a n d th e N a tio n a l O c e a n ic a n d A tm o s p h e re A d m in is tra tio n. F u rth e r d e ta ils o n a n d q u a lity o f th e d a ta is g iv e n in c h a p te r 4. T h e m e th o d o lo g y u s e d fo r e m is s io n s to a ir w a s d e v e lo p e d b y C o rb e tt ( ) a n d fu rth e r m o d ifie d b y D N V. M e th o d o lo g ie s u s e d fo r e s tim a tin g le a k a g e o f T B T, w a s te, g a rb a g e a n d s e w a g e a re d e v e lo p e d b y D N V u s in g s ta n d a rd re la tio n s b e tw e e n s h ip p in g a c tiv ity a n d re la te d p a ra m e te rs. T h e m e th o d s a n d a d o p te d re la tio n s a re a ll d o c u m e n te d. D N V c a n b e c o n s u lte d fo r d e ta ils. T h e c a lc u la tio n s a re p e rfo rm e d to in d ic a te th e le v e l o f p o te n tia l im p a c t to th e e n v iro n m e n t. P a g e 1 1

15 3 S N A P S H O T A N A L Y S I S ; I N P U T D A T A 3.1 I n p u t d a ta s o u r c e s E a c h P A M E m e m b e r h a s b e e n re q u e s te d to p ro v id e d e ta ile d in fo rm a tio n fo r th e s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is (s e e q u e s tio n n a ire in a p p e n d ix 3 ). T h e d a ta w e re to b e u s e d to g e th e r w ith in te rn a tio n a l s ta tis tic s fo r th e p u rp o s e o f g iv in g s u ffic ie n t le v e l o f d e ta il fo r a n a ly s in g th e m a ritim e a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic. T h e le v e l o f d e ta il re q u e s te d in th e q u e s tio n n a ire is lo o k e d u p o n a s e s s e n tia l to b e a b le to p e rfo rm a c c e p ta b le a n d q u a lifie d c a lc u la tio n s in o rd e r to e n a b le a d e ta ile d a n d c o m p re h e n s iv e a n a ly s is. T h e q u e s tio n n a ire w a s p ro d u c e d w ith re la tiv e ly s a tis fa c to ry re s p o n s e w h e re 3 o u t o f 8 c o u n trie s re p lie d. In a d d itio n o th e r d a ta s e ts w e re u s e d to s u p p o rt th e d a ta. T h e fo llo w in g s o u rc e s a re u s e d in th e a n a ly s is : T h e q u e s tio n n a ire o n s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s in C a n a d ia n A rc tic (T C ). P a rts o f th e in fo rm a tio n h a v e b e e n g iv e n to P A M E in p re v io u s a s s e s s m e n ts. In te rn a tio n a l s ta tis tic s re c e iv e d b y L lo y d s W o rld F le e t S ta tis tic s, F a irp la y S h ip D a ta B a s e, T h e C o m p re h e n s iv e O c e a n -A tm o s p h e re D a ta S e t (C O A D S ) a n d o th e r m a jo r re p o rts re la tin g to e n v iro n m e n ta l is s u e s a n d s h ip p in g o p e ra tio n s a re u s e d in th e s tu d y. F o r d e ta ils th e lis t o f re fe re n c e s s h o u ld b e c o n s u lte d. The International Northern Sea Route Programme (Løvås & Brude 1999) is a comprehensive multi-national and multi-disciplinary research programme with the purpose of investigating the possibilities for commercial navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and adjacent waters. The work is comprehensive and gives a detailed information on the environmental impact of shipping, navigation and related activities on the NSR. The results of the programme have been used to support more general statistics and information on the Arctic maritime activities along the NSR. Data received from Finland, Iceland, Canada, Denmark and Norway based on the 2000 questionnaire. Statistics Norway The PAME assessment of 1996 (PAME 1996) encompasses general information of maritime activity and provides less detail on trade and operation patterns. The PAME assessment on Canadian activities produced in 1995 is detailed with respect to type of vessels and size. However, details on trade and operational patterns are not given. The COADS Standard 1a, from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), provides a source for information on global vessel densities. The COADS database has registered the number of ship observations on a 2º latitude and 2º longitude (2x2) resolution. Based on the number of observations, within each grid location, an estimation of the traffic density of marine vessels can be obtained. The data is given on monthly level and starts in the late 1980`s. COADS is the most extensive collection of surface marine data available for the world ocean. However, it should be noted that it only covers approximately 10% of the world fleet in number (Corbett et al 1999). The data is used to estimate the geographical distribution of maritime P a g e 1 2

16 a c tiv itie s a n d th e ir p o s s ib le im p a c t th e re o f in th e A rc tic. It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t s m a lle r fis h in g v e s s e ls a re p ro b a b ly n o t in c lu d e d in th e d a ta s e t. E q u a lly th e L lo y d s F le e t S ta tis tic s a n d F a irp la y d a ta b a s e o n p o rt s ta tis tic s is u s e d to o u tlin e th e re la tiv e s h a re o f a c tiv ity b a s e d o n v e s s e l re g is te re d in p o rts. T h e F a irp la y d a ta b a s e e n c o m p a s s e s v e s s e ls > G T, le a v in g s m a lle r v e s s e ls (e x p e c te d to b e m o s tly fis h in g v e s s e ls a n d in la n d w a te rw a y v e s s e ls ) o u t o f th e d a ta b a s e. T h e s ta tis tic s fro m th e S ta tis tic s N o rw a y e n c o m p a s s d a ta fo r th e c o u n try a n d is re g a rd e d a s s a tis fy in g. T h e A rc tic s h a re h a s b e e n c a lc u la te d b a s e d o n th e to ta l fig u re s. T h e IN S R O P w o rk is e x p e c te d to b e th e m o s t c o m p re h e n s iv e d a ta s e t a v a ila b le fo r R u s s ia o n m a ritim e a c tiv ity a lo n g th e N o rth e rn S e a R o u te. T h is d a ta s e t h a s b e e n u s e d e x c lu s iv e ly fo r th e R u s s ia n p a rt o f th e a n a ly s is. In p u t g iv e n b y th e A rc tic c o u n trie s th ro u g h th e q u e s tio n n a ire s is c o n s id e re d to b e re p re s e n ta tiv e fo r th e A rc tic m a ritim e a c tiv itie s a n d h e n c e a p p ro p ria te fo r th e p u rp o s e o f th e s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is. 3.2 D a ta I n p u t u s e d T a b le 3.1 p re s e n ts a g g re g a tio n o f d a ta re c e iv e d a n d c o lle c te d fo r th e a n a ly s is. D e ta ils o n th e d a ta a re g iv e n in a p p e n d ix 4. F ig u re s a re p re s e n te d fo r d ry c a rg o, w e t c a rg o, g e n e ra l c a rg o, fis h in g v e s s e ls a n d ic e b re a k e rs / tu g s. It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t s ta tis tic s o n s h ip p in g o n in la n d w a te rw a y s a re n o t fu lly in c lu d e d in th e s tu d y T a b le 3.1 A r c tic fle e t n u m b e r s u s e d in th e m o d e llin g. T y p e N u m b e r o f v e s s e ls A ll < D W T > D W T W C D C F V IC /T U G S u m T h e fis h in g fle e t is la rg e s t b y n u m b e r. H o w e v e r a la rg e p a rt o f th e fis h in g v e s s e ls a re s m a ll v e s s e l, o f a b o u t G T w ith a lo w a c tiv ity le v e l c o m p a re d to th e la rg e r v e s s e ls. T h e m e rc h a n t a c tiv itie s m u s t b e c o n s id e re d re la tiv e ly lo w in th e A rc tic. 3.3 D is c u s s io n s o n d a ta q u a lity T h e c o m p le te a v a ila b le d a ta s e ts g iv e in fo rm a tio n a t a n a c c e p ta b le u n ifie d a n d s ta n d a rd is e d le v e l. T o g e th e r w ith th e d a ta s e ts p ro v id e d, g e n e ra l e m p iric a l a s s u m p tio n s a re m a d e o n p a ra m e te rs w h e n n o t a v a ila b le in th e d a ta s e ts a s a m o n g o th e rs : v e s s e ls d e n s itie s (g e o g ra p h ic a l) a n n u a l o p e ra tio n h o u rs n u m b e r o f v e s s e ls b y s h ip ty p e n u m b e r o f c re w / p a s s e n g e rs p e r v e s s e l ty p e a n d s iz e P a g e 1 3

17 d is trib u tio n o f v e s s e ls in s iz e g ro u p s n u m b e r a n d le n g th o f v o y a g e s T h e a n a ly s is h a s b e e n p e rfo rm e d fo r s e le c te d ty p e s o f v e s s e ls a n d e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t. T o e x te n t p o s s ib le th e d a ta s e ts h a s b e e n d iv id e d in to s iz e g ro u p s o f v e s s e ls. T h e d a ta s e ts p ro v id e d e n c o m p a s s s ta tis tic s o v e r a p e rio d s e v e ra l y e a rs, v a ry in g b e tw e e n c o u n trie s c o n s id e re d. A n a s s u m p tio n h a s b e e n m a d e th a t th is p e rio d is re p re s e n ta tiv e fo r th e p re s e n t m a ritim e a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic a n d th a t th e a c tiv itie s h a v e n o t c h a n g e d s u b s ta n tia lly. F o r s o m e c o u n trie s th e s ta tis tic s h a v e n o t b e e n m a d e a v a ila b le a t th e s a m e le v e l o f d e ta il. N o rw a y, Ic e la n d, D e n m a rk, C a n a d a, S w e d e n a n d F in la n d, th e tw o la tte r w ith lo w le v e l o f m a ritim e a c tiv ity, a re e x p e c te d to h a v e th e s a m e le v e l o f d e ta il w ith re s p e c t to fis h e rie s. M e rc h a n t tra ffic is o v e ra ll a t th e s a m e le v e l o f fo r N o rw a y, C a n a d a a n d p e rh a p s R u s s ia. D u e to th e v a ria tio n s in le v e l o f d e ta il, th e fig u re s g iv e n s h o u ld b e lo o k e d u p o n a s e s tim a te s a n d u s e d a c c o rd in g ly. In a c o lle c tio n e ffo rt a s c a rrie d o u t in th is w o rk, (le v e l o f d e ta ils a n d tim e s c h e d u le ) d a ta c a n b e e x p e c te d to b e a t th is g e n e ra l a n d o v e ra ll le v e l. If m o re d e ta ile d d a ta is re q u e s te d a m a jo r c o lle c tio n a n d a g g re g a tio n e ffo rt is re q u ire d. P a g e 1 4

18 4 S H I P P I N G I N T H E A R C T I C 4.1 I n tr o d u c tio n B e c a u s e th e A rc tic is a n o c e a n s u rro u n d e d b y la n d, it is n o t s u rp ris in g th a t w a te rw a y s w e re th e firs t m e a n s o f tra n s p o rt. N o rth e rn n a tiv e s p lie d th e riv e rs a n d la k e s in c a n o e s a n d k a y a k s, a n d s o u th e rn e rs c o m in g in to th e a re a a rriv e d in la rg e r s h ip s e ith e r a c ro s s th e s e a s o r d o w n th e riv e rs. T h e p h a s e o f e x p lo ra tio n k n o w n a s th e e x p a n s io n o f E u ro p e, b e g in n in g in th e 1 5 th c e n tu ry, in c lu d e d a s e a rc h fo r w a te r ro u te s a ro u n d th e n o rth e rn e n d o f th e c o n tin e n ts o f th e N o rth e rn H e m is p h e re : th e N o rth w e s t a n d N o rth e a s t P a s s a g e s. N e ith e r ro u te w a s d is c o v e re d fo r a n o th e r th re e c e n tu rie s, b u t b o th a re in u s e to d a y fo r a t le a s t p a rt o f, a n d o c c a s io n a lly a lo n g th e w h o le o f, th e ir le n g th s. T h e g re a te s t u s e o f w a te r tra n s p o rt is in R u s s ia. T h e s e a ro u te c a lle d th e N o rth e rn S e a R o u te, c a rrie s th e la rg e s t v o lu m e o f tra ffic o f a n y A rc tic s e a w a y. S e rv ic e d b y a b o u t 2 0 ic e b re a k e rs o f m o re th a n 1 0,0 0 0 s h a ft h o rs e p o w e r--s o m e o f th e m n u c le a r- p o w e re d --a fle e t o f ic e -s tre n g th e n e d fre ig h te rs c a rrie s c a rg o e s o f s e v e ra l m illio n to n s a n n u a lly to a n d fro m th e p o rts o f M u rm a n s k a n d V la d iv o s to k. T h e s h a llo w n e s s o f th e w a te r o b lig e s th e u s e o f re la tiv e ly s m a ll s h ip s o f u p to 2 0,0 0 0 to n s d e a d w e ig h t. T h e m a jo r c o n s tra in t is s e a ic e, w h ic h d e te rm in e s th e le n g th o f th e s e a s o n. T h is is a s little a s tw o a n d a h a lf m o n th s a t s o m e p o in ts, b u t a t th e w e s te rn e n d y e a r-ro u n d n a v ig a tio n is p o s s ib le a s fa r a s th e Y e n is e y R iv e r. S tre n u o u s e ffo rts h a v e b e e n m a d e to e x te n d th e s e a s o n, if p o s s ib le to th e p o in t a t w h ic h it w ill b e y e a r-ro u n d o v e r th e w h o le le n g th. T h e p re s e n t ro u te s e rv e s p o rts a t th e m o u th o f th e m a jo r riv e rs, th e p rin c ip a l fre ig h t b e in g g e n e ra l c a rg o a n d fu e l in to th e n o rth a n d o re a n d tim b e r o u t o f it. T h e re is a ls o e x te n s iv e u s e o f th e riv e rs th e m s e lv e s : a ll th e m a jo r a n d m a n y o f th e m in o r riv e rs c a rry la rg e fle e ts o f b a rg e s, tu g s, a n d h y d ro fo ils (w w w.b rita n n ic a.c o m ). W h ile R u s s ia c a rrie s th e m o s t tra ffic, b o th b y s e a a n d b y in la n d w a te rw a y, th e m e d iu m is e x p lo ite d in o th e r a re a s to o. T h e re is tra ffic b e tw e e n G re e n la n d a n d D e n m a rk, a n d in N o rth A m e ric a b o th C a n a d a a n d th e U n ite d S ta te s u s e s e a ro u te s to s u p p ly s e ttle m e n ts a n d in d u s tria l s ite s in th e C a n a d ia n a rc h ip e la g o a n d A la s k a. A b o u t 9 0 % o f g o o d s tra n s p o rte d in to A la s k a is b y w a te rb o rn tra n s p o rt (K u n n s k a p s fo rla g e t ). T h e N o rth w e s t P a s s a g e a s s u c h is h o w e v e r little u s e d (w w w.b rita n n ic a.c o m ). 4.2 S h ip p in g a c tiv itie s in th e A r c tic S h ip p in g is o n e o f th e a c tiv itie s id e n tifie d a s c o n trib u to rs to p o llu tio n in th e A rc tic a n d th e re b y o f c o n c e rn o f P A M E. D e s c rip tio n o f th e s h ip p in g a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic is a m o n g o th e rs d o c u m e n te d in th e re p o rt fro m th e W o rk in g G ro u p o n th e P ro te c tio n o f th e A rc tic M a rin e E n v iro n m e n t o f M a rc h (P A M E ), d e ta ile d fo r C a n a d a in T C ( ) a n d in s e v e ra l re p o rts p ro d u c e d u n d e r th e In te rn a tio n a l N o rth e rn S e a R o u te P ro g ra m m e (IN S R O P ). M a jo r n a v ig a tio n ro u te s a n d p o rts in th e A rc tic a re g iv e n in fig u re 4.1. P a g e 1 5

19 N o rth A la s k a S v e rd ru p B a s in W e s te rn S ib e ria B a re n ts S e a P o rts -o f-c a ll N a v ig a tio n ro u te s O il fie ld s A rc tic fis h in g g ro u n d s F ig u r e 4.1. M a jo r p o r ts a n d n a v ig a tio n r o u te s in th e A r c tic, s o u r c e s T C ( ), P A M E ( ), I N S R O P ( ) a n d P A M E q u e s tio n n a ir e G e o g r a p h ic a l r e fe r e n c e o f fis h in g g r o u n d s h a s n o t b e e n m a d e a v a ila b le fo r U S A a n d R u s s ia. T h e m a ritim e a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic c o n s is ts o f: tra n s p o rt o f g e n e ra l a n d b u lk (w e t a n d d ry ) c a rg o a n d c o n ta in e rs (a s s u m e d to in c re a s e in th e fu tu re ) fis h e rie s (a s s u m e d to re m a in s ta b le ) to u ris m, in c lu d in g w h a le w a tc h in g, c ru is e v e s s e ls / p a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls (a s s u m e d to in c re a s e in th e fu tu re ) re s e a rc h a n d o th e r v e s s e ls (a s s u m e d to re m a in s ta b le ) tra n s p o rt o f v e s s e ls fo r s c ra p p in g (a s s u m e d to in c re a s e in th e fu tu re ) ic e b re a k e rs a n d tu g s (a s s u m e d to in c re a s e d u e to o v e ra ll in c re a s e in m a ritim e tra ffic ) P a g e 1 6

20 F ig u r e 4.2. T h e v ie w fr o m th e b r id g e o f th e C C G S L o u is S S t. L a u r a n t n e a r R e s o lu te B a y, N in u v it. P r o v id e d b y T r a n s p o r t C a n a d a. 4.3 S e a s o n a l v a r ia tio n s S e a s o n a l v a ria tio n s in th e s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic re g io n a re m a in ly c a u s e d b y p re v a ilin g ic e c o n d itio n s. In th e m o s t e x p o s e d a re a s, th e s h ip p in g a c tiv ity is re g u la te d, i.e. in C a n a d a b y p e rm is s ib le s e a s o n s a c c o rd in g to th e z o n e /d a te ta b le o f th e A rc tic S h ip p in g P o llu tio n P re v e n tio n R e g u la tio n s (T C ). H o w e v e r, o p e ra tin g e x p e rie n c e h a s s h o w n th a t ic e a n d w e a th e r c o n d itio n s a re v e ry v a ria b le fro m y e a r to y e a r a n d w ith in s e a s o n. W h ic h h a s d riv e n th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f th e C a n a d ia n A rc tic Ic e R e g im e S h ip p in g S y s te m (T C ). In m a n y c a s e s th e u s e o f ic e b re a k e r e s c o rt is n e c e s s a ry o r in s tru c te d. A m a jo r p a rt o f m a ritim e a c tiv itie s in ic e -in fe c te d a re a s o f A rc tic C a n a d a is p e rfo rm e d in th e p e rio d J u n e October. The same is the case for the NSR where dense drifting ice and solid ice cover the whole region in November April with a freezing phase of August/September - May (Brude et al 1998 and Mikhailichenko & Ushakov 1992). In areas of less or no ice coverage the shipping activity is of a more regular pattern and changes are mainly due to activities as fisheries (depending upon resource distribution and seasonal variations) and tourism/cruises (summer activity). Example of vessel densities in January and August are presented in Figure 4.3a and b based on COADS. It should be noted that the COADS data sets are not expected to encompass smaller fishing vessels. P a g e 1 7

21 F ig u r e 4.3 a (to p ) a n d b (b o tto m ). E x a m p le o f v e s s e l d e n s itie s b a s e d o n a ir o b s e r v a tio n s fo r J a n u a r y (a ) a n d A u g u s t (b ) D a ta s o u r c e C o m p r e h e n s iv e O c e a n -A tm o s p h e r e D a ta S e t (C O A D S ) - h ttp ://w w w.c d c.n o a a.g o v /c g i- b in /D a ta A c c e s s.p l. P a g e 1 8

22 4.4 I m p o r t a n d E x p o r t in th e A r c tic S h ip p in g in th e A rc tic is m a in ly e n g a g e d in tra n s p o rtin g g o o d s in to, w ith in o r o u t o f th e re g io n. In te rn a tio n a l tra n s it in th e A rc tic is c a rrie d o u t in le s s e r e x te n t if a t a ll. M o s t s e a b o rn e im p o rt in th e re g io n is th a t o f tra n s p o rt o f g o o d s to in d u s try a n d h u m a n s e ttle m e n ts b y la rg e r c a rg o a n d b u lk c a rg o to th e m a jo r p o rts. S m a lle r c a rg o v e s s e ls c a rry o u t fu rth e r d is trib u tio n. It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t tra n s p o rt a ls o ta k e s p la c e o n la n d a n d in la n d w a te rw a y s. E x p o rt is m a in ly re la te d to tra n s p o rt o f u n re fin e d p ro d u c ts fro m th e p e tro le u m in d u s try (o il a n d g a s ), fis h e rie s a n d m in in g / fo re s try in d u s try. T ra n s p o rt o f th e s e p ro d u c ts is p e rfo rm e d in a n d o u t o f th e A rc tic re g io n s o f a ll A rc tic c o u n trie s. U S A a n d N o rw a y h a v e to g e th e r w ith C a n a d a a m a jo r p o rtio n o f th is e x p o rt. E x p o rt fro m Ic e la n d a n d G re e n la n d is m o s tly re la te d to fis h -p ro d u c ts a n d to s o m e e x te n t p ro d u c ts fro m th e m in in g in d u s try to D e n m a rk (G re e n la n d ). T h e N o rth e rn S e a R o u te (fro m N o v a ja Z e m lja to th e B e rin g S tra it) w a s o ffic ia lly o p e n e d fo r in te rn a tio n a l tra n s it tra d in g in H o w e v e r, p re s e n tly c o m m e rc ia l u tilis a tio n b y n o n -R u s s ia n v e s s e ls h a s b e e n in s ig n ific a n t. T h e d is ta n c e a d v a n ta g e o f u s in g th e N S R fo r tra n s c o n tin e n ta l tra n s p o rt b e tw e e n th e P a c ific a n d th e A tla n tic is in m a n y c a s e s o b v io u s a n d h a s b e e n d e m o n s tra te d b y R u s s ia n a c tiv itie s. It re m a in s h o w e v e r, to e s ta b lis h th is a s a s ta b le a n d s a fe ro u te o n a n a n n u a l b a s is. Im p ro v e m e n ts a n d o p tim is a tio n s o f e c o n o m ic a l, lo g is tic a l a n d te c h n ic a l a s p e c ts a re n e c e s s a ry to m a k e th e N S R e c o n o m ic a lly fe a s ib le fo r in te rn a tio n a l tra ffic (B ru d e e t a l ). T h e p re s e n t s ta tu s o f N S R a n d re s u lts o f th e IN S R O P p ro g ra m m e h e n c e in d ic a te s th a t th e u s e o f th e N S R fo r tra n s it s h ip p in g o p e ra tio n s is n o t y e t p ro v e d c a p a b le (IN S R O P ). T h e d a ta p re s e n te d b y C O A D S p ro v id e s d a ta o n g e o g ra p h ic a l d is trib u tio n o f v e s s e ls d e n s itie s in d ic a tin g a re a s o f e x p o rt/im p o rt ro u te s. T h e d a ta s h o w s a c le a r b ia s o f a c tiv ity in th e n o rth e rn p a rt o f th e e a s t A tla n tic, b e tw e e n N o rw a y a n d G re e n la n d, a s illu s tra te d in fig u re 4.4. T h e fig u re p re s e n ts th e m o n th ly m e a n o f v e s s e l d e n s itie s in th e p e rio d o f J a n u a ry April It should be noted that the COADS data sets are not expected comprised of fishing vessels. P a g e 1 9

23 F ig u r e 4.4. E x a m p le o f m e r c h a n t v e s s e l d e n s itie s b a s e d o n a ir o b s e r v a tio n s fo r th e p e r io d J a n u a r y January Data source Comprehensive Ocean- Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) - h ttp ://w w w.c d c.n o a a.g o v /c g i-b in /D a ta A c c e s s.p l E x p e c te d fu tu r e tr e n d s In c re a s e in th e e c o n o m ic a l a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e th e s h ip p in g tra ffic in th e a re a. N e w m in in g a c tiv itie s a re e x p e c te d in th e C a n a d ia n A rc tic, i. e. th e d e v e lo p m e n t in th e Iz o k L a k e s ite th a t w ill re q u ire tw o n e w ic e c la s s e s s h ip s a n d a s m a ll p o rt in fra s tru c tu re. T h e v o lu m e s o f tra n s p o rte d o re /z in c a t th e o th e r m in e s in C a n a d a a re e x p e c te d to in c re a s e in to th is c e n tu ry. S e v e ra l o il c o m p a n ie s h a v e o p e ra te d in th e a re a a n d m o v e m e n ts to a n d fro m th e A rc tic a re lim ite d to th e o p e n w a te r s e a s o n (T C ). A t p re s e n t a ll p e tro le u m a c tiv itie s in th e C a n a d ia n A rc tic is fin a lis e d. F u tu re p ro d u c tio n s c h e m e s a re n o t o u tlin e d. A lth o u g h th e u s e o f th e N S R fo r in te rn a tio n a l tra n s it s h ip p in g o p e ra tio n s is n o t e x p e c te d in th e n e a r fu tu re, th is ro u te s h o u ld n o t b e u n d e re s tim a te d. N o rth e rn R u s s ia h o ld s ric h re s e rv e s o f p e tro le u m h y d ro c a rb o n, c o a l, m in e ra ls a n d tim b e r. S ig n ific a n t e ffo rt is p u t o n im p ro v in g th e s e e c o n o m ic a lly im p o rta n t s e c to rs a n d p la n s fo r d e v e lo p m e n t a n d e x p o rt h a v e b e e n ra is e d (B ru d e e t a l ). It is e x p e c te d th a t th e s e a b o rn e x p o rt o f p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts (o il a n d g a s ) fro m R u s s ia w ill in c re a s e in th e fu tu re. T h is is m a in ly e x p e c te d fro m th e la rg e r o il fie ld s in w e s te rn R u s s ia (P e c h o ra a n d Y a m a l) a n d c e n tra l S ib e ria v ia th e la rg e r riv e rs o f O b a n d Y e n is e y. T h e s e a b o rn e x p o rt fro m th e s e a re a s is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e b y 3-4 tim e s b y th e e n d o f th e la s t c e n tu ry. (E P P R in B ru d e e t a l ). T a n k e r tra n s p o rt fro m n o rth e rn R u s s ia is P a g e 2 0

24 b y th e N o rw e g ia n T ra d e C o u n c il e x p e c te d to in c re a s e to a n e x te n t th a t it e q u a ls th e a m o u n t o f p e tro le u m p ro d u c t s h u ttle d in N o rw e g ia n w a te rs in th e n e a r fu tu re (J o h a n n e s s e n ). E x p o rt o f p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts is a ls o e x p e c te d to in c re a s e fro m th e N o rw e g ia n s e c tio n o f th e A rc tic ; th e N o rw e g ia n S e a a n d th e B a re n ts S e a. P ro d u c tio n s ta rt is y e t to b e d e c id e d, h o w e v e r in itia tio n is e x p e c te d in th e p e rio d S h ip p in g a c tiv ity is e x p e c te d in c re a s e d d u e to s h u ttlin g, c o n tin g e n c y s u p p o rt (s ta n d b y s u p p ly v e s s e ls ) a n d s u p p ly o f g o o d s to th e fie ld s. T o w h a t e x te n t th e p ro d u c ts w ill b e tra n s p o rte d b y v e s s e ls is y e t to b e d e c id e d, h o w e v e r, a c o m b in a tio n o f p ip e lin e s a n d v e s s e ls a re e x p e c te d. T ra ffic to a n d fro m G re e n la n d h a s n o t c h a n g e d s u b s ta n tia lly d u rin g th e la s t y e a rs a n d is e x p e c te d to re m a in s ta b le. O il d rillin g h a s s ta rte d o u ts id e N u u k, o n th e F y lla b a n k, h e n c e in c re a s in g th e tra ffic in th e a re a. P re s e n tly th is is th e o n ly fie ld a t s ta k e a n d o th e r fie ld s a re n o t in d ic a te d in th e n e a r fu tu re. 4.5 G e n e r a l c a r g o tr a ffic L a rg e r g e n e ra l c a rg o a n d b u lk c a rg o v e s s e ls c a rry g o o d s to th e m a jo r p o rts in th e A rc tic w h ile s m a lle r c a rg o v e s s e ls a re u s e d fo r fu rth e r m a ritim e d is trib u tio n. M a jo r c a rg o tra ffic is c a rrie d o u t in C a n a d a. T h e tra n s p o rt in C a n a d ia n A rc tic is o fte n d iv id e d in to e a s te rn A rc tic (H u d s o n B a y a n d B a ffin B a y ) a n d w e s te rn A rc tic (B e a u fo rt S e a ) s h ip p in g a c tiv ity o f w h ic h th e e a s te rn e n c o m p a s s b y fa r th e la rg e s t a m o u n t o f c a rg o tra n s p o rte d. D a ta o n tra ffic in C a n a d a b a s e d o n th e p e rio d o f is presented in TC (1995). A major part of the cargo transported is ore from the mining industry (more than 50% of total cargo volume). Transport of petroleum, oil and lubricants amounts to about 30 % of total volume transported in the period. The remaining 20 % are transport of dry cargo (TC 1995). Canada does not have the infrastructure to handle on shore loading of container traffic. However, container traffic takes place although by direct unloading to smaller vessels for further distribution. Major transport to and from the Greenland sea areas is comprised of bulk cargo and container vessels. The import of the shipping activity to Greenland serves about inhabitants (mainly along the west coast) represented by general cargo from Denmark E x p e c te d fu tu r e tr e n d s The cargo transport in the Arctic is expected to increase due to increased petroleum and mining activities and the need for future supplies for these industries. In Russia, requirements in relation to local distribution depend on future human settlements and aggregations of such. These processes depend upon the future economical situation in Russia. In the period of a general decrease in maritime activities were observed along the Russian coast, however the situation has been stable since then (Ivanov et al 1998). In Canada the major increase is expected in the eastern part of the region. P a g e 2 1

25 4.6 F is h e r ie s F is h e rie s a re m a in ly u n d e rta k e n in th e ic e -fre e a re a s o f th e N o rth E a s t A tla n tic, th e B a re n ts S e a, B e rin g S e a a n d th e B a ffin B a y a n d a lo n g th e c o n tin e n ta l s h e lf. T h e s e a re a s c o n trib u te to a c o n s id e ra b le a m o u n t o f th e to ta l g lo b a l fis h e rie s, s u p p ly in g m o re th a n 1 0 % to th e m a rk e t. M a jo r n a tio n s a re Ic e la n d, U S A, R u s s ia a n d N o rw a y. T h e a c tiv ity is d e p e n d e n t u p o n th e a v a ila b ility a n d d is trib u tio n o f re s o u rc e s a n d s h o w s la rg e s e a s o n a l v a ria tio n s o n a lo c a l s c a le. F is h e rie s in R u s s ia a re m a in ly lo c a te d to th e w e s te rn p a rt o f th e K a ra S e a a n d riv e rs a n d e s tu a rie s a n d a re in s ig n ific a n t o n a g lo b a l s c a le. T h is is d u e to s p a rs e a n d d iffic u lt a c c e s s to th e fis h re s o u rc e s e a s t o f th e K a ra S e a. T h e c a tc h is c o n s u m e d lo c a lly a n d fu tu re lo n g -ra n g e tra n s p o rt is n o t lik e ly (B ru d e e t a l ). A m a jo r p a rt o f th e fis h in g fle e t c o n s is ts o f s m a lle r v e s s e ls (le s s th a n 3 0 m e tre s ) m a in ly a c tiv e in n e a r s h o re a re a s. D a ta o n s u c h fis h e rie s a re o fte n n o t in c lu d e d in g e n e ra l s ta tis tic s, b u t a re k n o w n to c o n trib u te to a s u b s ta n tia l p a rt o f e m is s io n s to a ir. T h e la rg e r v e s s e ls (la rg e r th a n 3 0 m e tre s ) a re m a in ly u s e d in o p e n w a te r a n d a re o fte n in c lu d e d in n a tio n a l a n d in te rn a tio n a l s ta tis tic s. T h e fis h e rie s re p re s e n t a n im p o rta n t p a rt o f th e liv e lih o o d o f th e in d ig e n o u s p e o p le o f R u s s ia, G re e n la n d a n d C a n a d a. T h e re la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n th e s e in te re s ts s h o u ld b e re c o g n is e d a n d fu tu re tre n d s a n d im p a c t o n th e fis h e rie s in th e s e a re a s s h o u ld b e e la b o ra te d E x p e c te d fu tu r e tr e n d s T h e fis h in g a c tiv ity in th e fu tu re is e x p e c te d to b e s ta b le a n d lo c a te d to th e s a m e a re a s a s p re s e n t. T h is is re la te d to a v a ila b ility o f fis h s to c k s a n d th e g e n e ra l n a tu ra l v a ria tio n a s s u c h. T h e fis h in g a c tiv ity a n d th e fle e t s tru c tu re a re a c o n s e q u e n c e o f h o w th e a c tiv ity is re g u la te d n a tio n a lly a n d in te rn a tio n a lly. A t p re s e n t, in fo rm a tio n a v a ila b le d o e s n o t s u p p o rt a fu tu re in c re a s e n o r d e c re a s e in th e p a tte rn. 4.7 T o u r is m ; C r u is e a n d P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls T o u ris m /C ru is e s is a re la tiv e ly n e w in d u s try in th e A rc tic a n d h a v e s te a d ily in c re a s e d th e la s t 1 0 y e a rs. T h e a c tiv ity is m a in ly lo c a te d n e a r th e s h o re / ic e e d g e w ith th e a im at presenting dramatic, untouched natural resources and the ultimate experience. Among others are the Barents Sea and the Lancaster Sound, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and the west coast of Greenland are popular areas (TC 1995). To a smaller extent the east coast of Greenland and the sea areas towards Iceland are used for this purpose. The use of heavy nuclear powered icebreakers for tourism purposes (e.g. to the North Pole) is among others performed in the Russian sector of the Arctic. The tourism activity along the Norwegian north west coast and towards Svalbard is also increasing. Larger cruise vessels are operating in the area, about 20 vessels annually. The activity takes place in the open water season mainly the months of June, July and August. P a g e 2 2

26 4.7.1 E x p e c te d fu tu r e tr e n d s T o u ris m in g e n e ra l is a n in c re a s in g b u s in e s s a m o n g o th e rs d u e to in c re a s e d a v a ila b ility o f ta rg e ts, in c re a s e d fre e tim e a n d im p ro v e d e c o n o m ic a l s ta tu s. T h e a c tiv ity is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e in a ll p a rts o f th e A rc tic in th e fu tu re. 4.8 T u g s, R e s e a r c h a n d I c e b r e a k e r s T o w in g is u s e d in tra n s p o rt o f c a rg o, fu e l to th e lo c a l c o m m u n itie s a n d in d u s try b y b a rg e s a n d tu g g in g o f v e s s e ls fo r s c ra p p in g. A t p re s e n t th e la tte r is n o t a m a jo r a c tiv ity, h o w e v e r th e a c tiv ity is a s s u m e d to in c re a s e, a m o n g o th e rs d u e to th e s c ra p p in g o f m ilita ry v e s s e ls in R u s s ia. T h e e x p e rie n c e in lo n g d is ta n c e to w in g v a rie s a n d h a s in s e v e ra l c a s e s re s u lte d in lo s s e s, e.g. th e Murmansk a n d Boiky o u ts id e th e n o rth e rn c o a s t o f N o rw a y. In th e C a n a d ia n A rc tic to w in g o p e ra tio n s a re a lm o s t e x c lu s iv e ly lim ite d to tu g s to w in g b a rg e s lo a d e d w ith fu e l a n d s u p p lie s d e s tin e fo r re m o te c o m m u n itie s. T h e re a re tw o d is tin c t a re a s o f o p e ra tio n, C T 1 in th e e a s te rn A rc tic, H u d s o n S tra it a n d H u d s o n B a y a n d C T 3, u p th e M a c k e n z ie R iv e r a n d d o w n th ro u g h A m u n d s e n G u lf, Q u e e n M a u d G u lf a n d R a e S tra it. W h ile s o m e o f th e s e b a rg e o p e ra tio n s m a y ta k e place in the proximity to sea ice, Transport Canada s Tanker Barge Guidelines are used by the various commercial companies which among other factors, prohibits the carriage of petroleum products in the barge s forward wing tanks. Furthermore tugs are used for supporting other traffic when needed, e.g. port and oil terminal manoeuvring. All Arctic countries perform some level of research activities to some extent in the Arctic. Vessels used for research purposes are mainly active in the open sea period. The activity is relatively small and does not amount to any volume compared to other maritime traffic. The use of icebreakers is in some cases necessary or required by state. The Russian and Canadian Arctic are supported by icebreaker in seasons and periods of heavy ice conditions E x p e c te d fu tu r e tr e n d s At present towing of vessels for scrapping is not a major activity, however the number is assumed to increase, among others due to the scrapping of military vessels in Russia. The operations of research vessels are often difficult to predict but the activity is not expected to increase substantially in the future. A trend is seen in on the development of combined icebreaker and research vessels to support the increased scientific and public focus on the Arctic environment. The operation of icebreaker activity is linked to the general operations and the hull structure of the vessels. The icebreaker activity will vary with climatic changes or as commercial shipping activity dictates. P a g e 2 3

27 5 C A L C U L A T I O N S O F E M I S S I O N S T O A I R 5.1 G lo b a l g e o g r a p h ic a l d is tr ib u tio n o f m a r in e e m is s io n s In o rd e r to q u a n tify th e a ir p o llu tio n fro m m a rin e e n g in e s, in te rm s o f e x h a u s t d is c h a rg e w ith in g e o g ra p h ic a l re g io n s, it is in s tru c tiv e to u s e a g e o g ra p h ic a l e m is s io n m o d e l. S u c h m o d e ls a re b a s e d o n v e s s e l tra ffic d e n s ity w ith in a n u m b e r o f s e le c te d p o llu tio n a re a s. T h e c a lc u la tio n m e th o d o lo g y is d e s c rib e d in d e ta il in IM O ( ). T a b le 5.1. p re s e n ts th e in p u t d a ta fo r th e c a lc u la tio n s (p re s e n te d in ta b le 5.2 ), s e p a ra te d b y re g io n s. It is e v id e n t th a t th e re a re a s m a lle r n u m b e r o f a re a s w ith h ig h tra ffic d e n s ity (a s s h o w n F ig u re 5.1 ). T h e g e o g ra p h ic a l a re a s a re c la s s ifie d a c c o rd in g to tra ffic d e n s ity (T a b le 5.1 ). T a b le 5.1 E s tim a te d tr a ffic d e n s ity , in d iv id u a l r e g io n s. S o u r c e : I M O T r a ffic d e n s ity A r e a s iz e (1 0 6 A v e r a g e n u m b e r k m 2 ) o f v e s s e ls L o w M e d iu m H ig h E x tr a h ig h T ra ffic d e n sity L o w M e d iu m H ig h E x tr a h ig h F ig u r e 5.1 E s tim a te d tr a ffic d e n s ity b a s e d o n d a ta fr o m S o u r c e : I M O ( ). P a g e 2 4

28 5.1.1 R e s u lts 2 T h e e s tim a te d a n n u a l ( ) c o n c e n tra tio n s (m g /m y ) in th e p re -d e fin e d re g io n s (T a b le 5.2 ) a re c o n n e c te d to th e c o lo u rs in F ig u re 5.1. T h e s e re s u lts a re a ls o in a g re e m e n t w ith th e in v e s tig a tio n s o f C o rb e tt ( ), w h o u s e d a m o re d e ta ile d c a lc u la tio n m e th o d (h ig h e r g rid re s o lu tio n e tc ). T h e re s u lts c a n b e u s e d a s a n e s tim a te o f th e g lo b a l d is trib u tio n o f e m is s io n s fro m e x h a u s t g a s e s o rig in a tin g fro m m e rc h a n t s h ip p in g. H o w e v e r, it s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t: th e c a lc u la tio n m e th o d is b a s e d o n a s im p le a p p ro a c h th e C O A D S d a ta s e t o n ly c o v e rs 1 0 % o f th e w o rld fle e t a n d s m a lle r fis h in g v e s s e ls a re n o t e x p e c te d to b e p a rt o f th e C O A D S d a ta s e ts. th e u s e d tra ffic d e n s ity m a y in c lu d e s o m e d o m e s tic a c tiv ity n e a r th e c o a s t T h e e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f e m is s io n s to a ir fo r s o m e e m is s io n c o m p o n e n ts (N O x, S O x ) w ill d e p e n d u p o n th e e x is tin g b a c k g ro u n d c o n c e n tra tio n s in th e a re a. A n a re a e x p e rie n c in g lo w b a c k g ro u n d le v e ls (lo w tra ffic d e n s ity ) is c o n s id e re d to b e m o re vulnerable for an increased load than identical increase in an already polluted area (Isaksen, IPCC 1999). Hence, assessments looking at increased traffic density and its consequential impact in such low load areas will require a more detailed and advanced approach. T a b le 5.2. G e o g r a p h ic a l d is tr ib u tio n o f th e e m is s io n s, c o n n e c te d to c o lo u r in F ig u r e 5.1. S o u r c e I M O ( ). P o llu tio n A r e a (M to n ) m g /m C O 2 N O X S O 2 2 y (M to n ) m g /m 2 y (M to n ) m g /m 2 y F r a c tio n L o w M e d iu m H ig h E x tr a H ig h S u m (% ) Corbett (1999) concludes that nearly 70 % of ship emissions occur within 400 km of land. Oftedal (1996) reported that % of the ships was within 200 n. miles of land (based on IMO document: BCH24/inf.28 and MEPC 38/inf.12) at any time. Consequently, the main amount emitted is along the coast: In the Northern Hemisphere Along the west and east cost of United States In northern Europe The North Pacific As seen from the study of IMO (2000), maritime operations in the Arctic region contributes on a global scale to low emissions to air. Smaller areas are however the source of medium contribution (figure 3.3a and b), e.g. Norwegian Sea, North East Atlantic and the Bering Sea area. P a g e 2 5

29 5.2 E s tim a te s o f e m is s io n to a ir in th e A r c tic In o rd e r to q u a n tify a ir p o llu tio n fro m m a rin e e n g in e s in te rm s o f e x h a u s t g a s e m is s io n, it is in s tru c tiv e to u s e a n e m is s io n m o d e l. E m is s io n m o d e ls m a y a d o p t a c tu a l e m is s io n fa c to rs re c o rd e d fro m o n b o a rd m e a s u re m e n ts, o r th e y c a n u s e th e o re tic a l fa c to rs a rriv e d fro m th e c h e m ic a l re a c tio n e q u a tio n s. In c o m b in a tio n w ith a c tu a l fu e l c o n s u m p tio n, a n e m is s io n in v e n to ry c a n b e p ro v id e d A s ta tis tic a l e m is s io n m o d e l a p p r o a c h A breakdown of the Arctic fleet according to ship type, ship size and engine type is made on three levels. Knowing the specific fuel consumption and the emissions factors, the emissions rate for NO x, SO 2, CO 2, CO and NMVOC, PM, CH 4, N 2 O may be calculated by using the method developed by DNV (DNV 1999). The model is based on information from: The Arctic Fleet Statistic (Questionnaire 2000, PAME 1996, Fairplay 1998, TC 1995). Distribution of engine types and relations between installed engine power and DWT (DNV, 1998b). Marine emission factors (Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook 1999 from EMEP/CORINAIR) Specific fuel consumption (Harrington 1992, DNV 1998c and Klokk 1994). Activity profile (Questionnaire 2000, PAME 1996, Isensee 1994): Number of voyages Average duration of navigation (days/year) Average main engine load Description and details of the statistical model are presented in an internal DNV report (1999) and by IMO (2000). The calculation covers only emission to air during operating phase R e s u lts Based on the input data given and input from the methodology given above the following emissions to air (Table 5.3) have been estimated for the Arctic in the period The results include dry cargo (DC), wet cargo (WC), icebreakers/tugs (IC/TUG) and fishing vessels (FV). P a g e 2 6

30 T a b le 5.3 C a lc u la te d e m is s io n s to a ir a n d fu e l c o n s u m p tio n in th e A r c tic fo r (in K to n ) T y p e N O x C O N M V O C S O 2 C O 2 P M C H 4 N 2 O F u e l c o n s u m p tio n W C D C F V I C /T U G Sum IC /T u g - Ic e b re a k e r / T u g s, W C - W e t c a rg o, D C - D ry c a rg o, F V - F is h in g v e s s e ls D is c u s s io n T h e e s tim a te s s h o w th a t o f m e rc h a n t tra ffic, d ry c a rg o is th e m o s t s ig n ific a n t c o n trib u to r. T h is is s u p p o rte d b y o th e r s o u rc e s e.g. F lu g s ru d a n d H a a k o n s e n ( ) w h o fo u n d a s im ila r p a tte rn w h e n c o m b in in g d o m e s tic a n d in te rn a tio n a l m a ritim e tra ffic in N o rw e g ia n w a te rs. D ry c a rg o c a rrie rs a re d o m in a tin g (m e rc h a n t tra ffic ) b y n u m b e r a s w e ll a s b y e m is s io n s. F is h in g v e s s e ls c o n trib u te to a m a jo r p a rt o f th e c o n s u m p tio n o f fu e l a n d h e re b y re p re s e n t a c o n s id e ra b le in p u t to e m is s io n s to a ir. T h is m a y b e d u e to a la rg e n u m b e r o f v e s s e ls w ith a h ig h n u m b e r o f o p e ra tio n h o u rs (F lu g s ru d a n d R y p d a l ). S o m e o f th e la rg e r fis h in g v e s s e ls a ls o c o n s u m e c o n s id e ra b le v o lu m e o f fu e l d u e to a h ig h e r o p e ra tio n a l p ro file (e s p e c ia lly fa c to ry v e s s e l). F o r th e N o rw e g ia n fis h in g fle e t, it is d o c u m e n te d th a t la rg e r v e s s e ls (> 3 0 m e tre s ) c o n s u m e s a b o u t 8 0 % o f th e to ta l fu e l c o n s u m p tio n o f th e fis h in g fle e t. H o w e v e r, in n u m b e rs th e s e v e s s e ls c o n s titu te fo r le s s th a n 2 0 % o f th e fle e t (J o h a n n e s s e n ). It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t m a n y s m a lle r fis h in g v e s s e ls (< 3 0 m e te rs ) a re o p e ra tin g o n s e a s o n a l b a s is a n d m a y h a v e b e e n g iv e n a to o h ig h a n n u a l a c tiv ity le v e l. T h e b ia s in e s tim a te d e m is s io n s to a ir w ith re s p e c t to fis h in g v e s s e ls is a ls o d u e to th is fa c t. C o m p a re d w ith th e g lo b a l m a rin e c o n s u m p tio n (IM O ), th e A rc tic c o n s u m p tio n is o n ly a p p ro x im a te ly 1 % (o n ly w e t c a rg o, d ry c a rg o, fis h in g v e s s e ls a n d ic e b re a k e rs /tu g s ). D u e to th e v a ria b le le v e l o f d e ta il in s ta tis tic s (n u m b e r o f v e s s e ls, ty p e a n d s iz e d is trib u tio n ) a n d th e la c k o f s ta tis tic s fo r s o m e re g io n s th e e s tim a te d v a lu e s p re s e n te d s h o u ld b e h a n d le d w ith s o m e c a u tio n. P a g e 2 7

31 6 C A L C U L A T I O N S O F T B T E M I S S I O N V e s s e ls a re c o a te d w ith a n ti-fo u lin g p a in ts c o n ta in in g to x ic c o m p o u n d s. C u rre n tly u s e d a n ti-fo u lin g s y s te m s c o n ta in c o m p o u n d s lik e c o p p e r, T B T (trib u ty ltin ) a n d c o - to x ic a n ts lik e z in c a n d o rg a n ic c o m p o u n d s s u c h a s tria z in e s. A fte r 3-5 y e a rs a b o u t % o f th e s e b io c id e s w ill h a v e le a k e d o u t. 6.1 A s ta tis tic a l e m is s io n m o d e l a p p r o a c h T h e D N V s a n ti-fo u lin g e m is s io n m o d e l (D N V ) e s tim a te th e a n n u a lly e m itte d a m o u n t o f T B T fro m th e A rc tic fle e t (in c lu d e s w e t c a rg o, d ry c a rg o, ic e b re a k e rs /tu g s a n d fis h in g v e s s e ls ). T h e m o d e l is b a s e d o n a b re a k d o w n o f th e A rc tic fle e t, s ta tis tic a l re la tio n s b e tw e e n w e tte d s u rfa c e a n d d e a d -w e ig h t fo r e a c h v e s s e ls c a te g o ry a n d e m is s io n e q u a tio n s a s : E m is s io n [k g /y e a r]= T o ta l w e tte d a re a o f s h ip s [m 2 ] L e a c h in g ra te [k g /m 2 /y e a r] T h e m o d e l a ls o re q u ire th e d is trib u tio n o f a n ti-fo u lin g ty p e s (T B T, C o p p e r a n d o th e rs ) a n d th e le a c h in g ra te s. A d e ta ile d d e s c rip tio n o f th e m o d e l is g iv e n in th e D N V re p o rt Reference values for ship pollution (D N V ). It is s e e n fro m th e e q u a tio n a b o v e th a t th e e m ittin g o f T B T is d e p e n d in g o f th e W e tte d s u rfa c e c a lc u la te d b y th e v e s s e l d im e n s io n s. H o w e v e r, a s d o c u m e n te d b y IN S R O P ( ) a n d P A M E ( ), th e A rc tic m e rc h a n t fle e t c o n s is ts o f s m a lle r v e s s e ls c o m p a re d w ith w o rld m e rc h a n t fle e t (V L C C e tc.), fo llo w e d b y in a v e ra g e a lo w e r T B T e m is s io n p r. v e s s e l. It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t th e u s e o f T B T w a s b a n n e d fo r v e s s e ls s m a lle r th a n 2 5 m e tre s in o n m o re o r le s s g lo b a l te rm s. It is b e lie v e d th a t T B T -b a s e d a n ti-fo u lin g p a in t is u s e d b y 7 0 p e rc e n t o f th e w o rld s fle e t (M a y e ll & S w a n s o n ). T h e T B T le a c h in g ra te w a s a s s u m e d to b e 2 m g /c m 2 /d a y in a p re v io u s w o rk in th e N o rth S e a (Is e n s e e e t a l ). IM O h a s re c o m m e n d a T B T le a c h in g ra te b e lo w 4 m g /c m 2 /d a y (IM O ). A le a c h in g ra te o f 2 a n d 4 m g /c m 2 /d a y w a s a p p lie d in th e m o d e l a n d th e fra c tio n o f T B T b a s e d a n ti-fo u lin g s y s te m s w a s a s s u m e d e q u a l to 7 0 %. It is a s s u m e d in th e c a lc u la tio n s o f T B T th a t th e v e s s e ls in th e d a ta s e t (re f. ta b le ) a re in th e A rc tic re g io n o n a n n u a l b a s is. In a d d itio n th e s m a lle s t v e s s e ls (< 2 5 m e tre s ) a re n o t in c lu d e d in th e T B T c a lc u la tio n s. 6.2 R e s u lts T h e m o d e llin g re s u lts a re p re s e n te d in T a b le 6.1. T h e e m is s io n o f T B T in th e A rc tic is e s tim a te d to b e in th e ra n g e o f 2-4 to n /y e a r. T h e e m is s io n o f T B T b y m e rc h a n t fle e t w o rld w id e is e s tim a te d to b e in th e ra n g e o f to n /y e a r (2 4 m g/cm 2 /day) and the total wetted area about m 2 (DNV 1999). The main contribution vessel categories are oil tankers, bulk carriers and general cargo vessels. By comparing the Arctic (maritime traffic) and world wide emission of TBT, the Arctic contribution is only about 0.3 %, and dry cargo vessels are the dominating category. P a g e 2 8

32 T h e s e re s u lts in c lu d e o n ly w e t-, d ry c a rg o, ic e b re a k e r/tu g a n d fis h in g v e s s e ls, a n d th e e s tim a te d T B T e m is s io n m a y th e re fo re b e to o lo w. H o w e v e r, u s e o f T B T o n s m a lle r v e s s e ls h a s b e e n b a n n e d s in c e (th is b a n is n o t g lo b a l, b u t w id e ly a c c e p te d ). In a d d itio n A rc tic v e s s e ls m a y u s e p a in ts w ith a lo w e r le a c h in g ra te d u e to c o ld e r w a te r, a n d a le a c h in g ra te o f 2 m g /c m 2 /d a y is lik e ly (T a b le 6.1 ; 2.1 to n s T B T ). T a b le 6.1 E m itte d T B T u s in g th e A r c tic fle e t s ta tis tic s. V e s s e l ty p e * T B T fr a c tio n (to n s /m E m itte d T B T (to n s /y e a r ) /y e a r ) 1 ) (to n s /m 2 /y e a r ) 2 ) W C D C F V IC /T U G S u m ) le a c h in g ra te o f 2 m g /c m 2 /d a y 2 ) le a c h in g ra te o f 4 m g /c m 2 /d a y * W C -W e t c a rg o v e s s e ls D C - D ry c a rg o v e s s e ls F V - F is h in g v e s s e l IC /T U G - Ic e b re a k e r/tu g v e s s e ls T h e re a re n o c u rre n t in te rn a tio n a l ru le s g o v e rn in g e n v iro n m e n ta l m a tte rs w ith re g a rd s to a n tifo u lin g p a in t s y s te m s. H o w e v e r, s o m e c o u n trie s h a v e a p p lie d le g is la tio n to re g is te r a n d re d u c e th e u s e o f o rg a n o tin s in a n tifo u lin g s y s te m s. W ith in IM O d is c u s s io n s o n p ro h ib itin g th e u s e o f o rg a n o tin c o m p o u n d s h a v e ta k e n p la c e fo r a lo n g p e rio d o f tim e. In IM O 2 1 s t A s s e m b ly d u e to a d o p t R e s o lu tio n o n p h a s in g o u t o rg a n o tin c o m p o u n d s a c tin g a s b io c id e s in a n tifo u lin g s y s te m s w a s c a rrie d o u t. P ro h ib itio n o f a p p lic a tio n o f o rg a n o tin c o m p o u n d s a c tin g a s b io c id e s in a n tifo u lin g s y s te m s a n d h e re b y e n te r th e re s o lu tio n in to fo rc e is e x p e c te d b y A c o m p le te p ro h ib itio n in th e u s e o f o rg a n o tin s in a n tifo u lin g s y s te m s is e x p e c te d b y P a g e 2 9

33 7 C A L C U L A T I O N S O F S E W A G E, O I L Y W A S T E A N D N O I S E T h e m o s t im p o rta n t in te rn a tio n a l c o n v e n tio n re la te d to c o n tro l a n d m a n a g e m e n t o f p o llu tio n fro m s h ip s is th e In te rn a tio n a l C o n v e n tio n fo r th e P re v e n tio n o f P o llu tio n fro m s h ip s , a s m o d ifie d b y th e P ro to c o l o f re la tin g th e re to, a ls o a b b re v ia te d M A R P O L 7 3 /7 8. In a c c o rd a n c e w ith M A R P O L, th o s e n a tio n s th a t h a v e ra tifie d th e c o n v e n tio n a re o b lig e d to p ro v id e fo r re c e p tio n fa c ilitie s fo r s h ip w a s te. T h e v a rio u s a n n e x e s o f th e M A R P O L c o n v e n tio n e n te rs in to fo rc e o n ly fo llo w in g th e ra tific a tio n fro m a s u ffic ie n t n u m b e r o f n a tio n s. In th is re p o rt th e fo llo w in g M A R P O L a n n e x e s a re o f in te re s t: A n n e x I. O il (D irty b a lla s t w a te r, o ily ta n k w a s h in g, o ily b ilg e w a te r, s lo p s, s lu d g e, fu e l re s id u e s, w a s te o il). A n n e x IV. S e w a g e A n n e x V. G a rb a g e, tra s h, o ily ra g s, p la s tic, p a c k in g m a te ria l a n d d u n n a g e. A n n e x IV is n o t y e t in fo rc e. F o r A n n e x I d irty b a lla s t w a te r a n d o ily ta n k w a s h in g is n o t m e n tio n e d in th is c h a p te r. D e ta ile d d e s c rip tio n o f th e d iffe re n t w a s te ty p e s is g iv e n in a p p e n d ix C a lc u la tio n o f g e n e r a te d w a s te T h e q u a n tific a tio n o f w a s te g e n e ra te d b y v e s s e ls h a s b e e n g iv e n lim ite d a tte n tio n. T h e re fo re, s ta tis tic a l d a ta is n o t re a d ily a v a ila b le a n d th u s it is d iffic u lt to a g g re g a te q u a lity d a ta a n d to d ra w c o n c lu s io n s o n th e is s u e. In th is s tu d y d a ta fro m a s u rv e y u n d e rta k e n in b y th e S h ip R e s e a rc h In s titu te o f N o rw a y (N S F I) a n d la te r o n u s e d b y D N V in a p ro je c t fo r th e N o rw e g ia n M a ritim e D ire c to ra te (N M D ) h a v e b e e n u s e d. D e ta ils o f d a ta in p u t a re g iv e n in a p p e n d ix 4. T h e m e th o d o lo g y c o n s id e rs s o u rc e s a n d a m o u n ts o f w a s te o il fro m s h ip o p e ra tio n s. T e m p o ra ry m o d e ls a re d e v e lo p e d fro m th e w a s te g e n e ra tio n fro m ; s e p a ra tio n o f fu e l o il, lu b ric a tin g o il a n d b ilg e w a te r. E a c h ty p e o f w a s te g e n e ra tio n is p a rtic u la rly c o n s id e re d w ith re la tio n to th e fa c to rs th a t in flu e n c e th e g e n e ra tio n. T h e S h ip R e s e a rc h In s titu te o f N o rw a y (N S F I) u n d e rto o k a s u rv e y o n th e q u a n titie s o f o ily w a s te fro m s h ip s c a llin g a t N o rw e g ia n p o rts. T h e p ro d u c e d a m o u n ts w e re u s e d to c a lc u la te e x p e c te d a m o u n ts o f w a s te to N o rw e g ia n p o rts b a s e d o n in fo rm a tio n th a t w a s g a th e re d fro m th e p o rts. T h e fig u re s th a t a re g iv e n fo r s lu d g e, o ily b ilg e w a te r, lu b ric a tin g o il a n d s o lid w a s te s (N M D ) a re g iv e n fo r d iffe re n t ty p e s a n d s iz e s o f s h ip s a n d g iv e n a s litre s /2 4 h o u r. T h e n u m b e rs a re c o n n e c te d to th e s h ip s iz e a n d a re n o t c o n n e c te d to in flu e n c e fa c to rs s u c h a s fu e l o il q u a lity, ty p e o f s e p a ra to r a n d ty p e o f e n g in e. T h e fig u re s a re th e n c o m b in e d w ith th e d a ta o f s h ip tra ffic in th e A rc tic a n d th e p ro d u c e d a m o u n t o f s lu d g e, b ilg e, s e w a g e, g a rb a g e, s o lid o ily w a s te a n d w a s te o il fro m th e a c tu a l v e s s e ls a re c a lc u la te d. H e n c e th e n u m b e rs d o n o t d e s c rib e w h a t is le g a lly d is c h a rg e d. T h e n u m b e rs th a t a re g iv e n fo r s e w a g e (b la c k a n d g re y w a te r) a re g iv e n fo r d iffe re n t ty p e s o f s h ip s, d iffe re n t s iz e s o f s h ip s a n d g iv e n a s litre s /2 4 h o u r. T h e n u m b e rs ta k e in to c o n s id e ra tio n th e n u m b e r o f c re w a n d p a s s e n g e rs, d iffe re n c e s in th e p ro d u c tio n P a g e 3 0

34 o f s e w a g e fro m c o n v e n tio n a l a n d v a c u u m s y s te m s a n d p a rts o f v e s s e ls th a t h a v e v a c u u m /c o n v e n tio n a l s y s te m s. T h e c a lc u la tio n s a re b a s e d o n fig u re s fo r p o te n tia l p ro d u c e d a m o u n ts o f s e w a g e. T h e n u m b e rs d o n o t ta k e in to a c c o u n t th a t in o v e r-s e a tra ffic a b o u t 8 0 % o f th e s h ip s h a v e s e w a g e tre a tm e n t p la n ts. V e s s e ls w ith s e w a g e tre a tm e n t p la n ts p ro d u c e 2 litre s s lu d g e /p.e./2 4 h o u r (N M D ). T h e n u m b e rs a re th e n c o m b in e d w ith th e d a ta o f s h ip tra ffic in th e P A M E -a re a a n d th e p ro d u c e d a m o u n t o f s e w a g e fro m th e a c tu a l v e s s e ls a re c a lc u la te d. H e n c e th e n u m b e rs d o n o t d e s c rib e w h a t is le g a lly d is c h a rg e d. T h e a m o u n t o f g a rb a g e p ro d u c e d o n a v e s s e l is a fu n c tio n o f th e n u m b e r o f p e rs o n s (c re w a n d p a s s e n g e rs ) o n b o a rd a n d is u s u a lly re p o rte d in k g /m a n /2 4 h o u r. T h e N M D s tu d y (N M D ) s u g g e s te d a g a rb a g e ra te, r g = 1.5 k g /m a n /2 4 h o u r fo r c a rg o v e s s e ls a n d fo r p a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls, r g = 2.1 k g /m a n /2 4 h o u r. T h e s e fig u re s a re c o m b in e d w ith fig u re s o f p a s s e n g e rs /c re w a n d g iv e s p ro d u c e d a m o u n t o f w a s te fro m d iffe re n t ty p e s o f v e s s e ls. T h e fig u re s a re th e n c o m b in e d w ith th e d a ta o f s h ip tra ffic in th e A rc tic a n d th e p ro d u c e d a m o u n t o f g a rb a g e fro m th e a c tu a l v e s s e ls a re c a lc u la te d. H e n c e, th e n u m b e rs d o n o t d e s c rib e w h a t is le g a lly d is c h a rg e d. T h e c a lc u la tio n s c o v e r o n ly p ro d u c tio n o f s lu d g e, b ilg e, s e w a g e, g a rb a g e, s o lid o ily w a s te a n d w a s te o il d u rin g o p e ra tin g p h a s e. 7.2 R e s u lts T h e re s u lts fro m th e c a lc u la tio n s a re g iv e n in T a b le 7.1. It s h o u ld b e e m p h a s is e d th a t th e g iv e n n u m b e rs a re p o te n tia lly p ro d u c e d a m o u n ts a n d d o n o t re fle c t w h a t is d is c h a rg e d o r w h a t is a c tu a lly d e liv e re d o n s h o re. F is h in g v e s s e ls c o n trib u te a m a jo r p a rt o f w a s te g e n e ra te d. H o w e v e r, th e la rg e fra c tio n o f s m a ll fis h in g v e s s e ls m a y g iv e a to o h ig h c o n trib u tio n. T a b le 7.1. E s tim a te d g e n e r a te d w a s te in th e A r c tic, b a s e d o n fle e t s ta tis tic s fo r T y p e S lu d g e (m 3 /y e a r ) B ilg e (m 3 /y e a r ) S o lid o il w a s te (to n /y e a r ) W a s te o il (m 3 /y e a r ) S e w a g e (to n /y e a r ) G a r b a g e (m 3 /y e a r ) I C E B R./T U G W C D C F V SUM IC /T u g -Ic e b re a k e r / T u g s W C -W e t c a rg o D C - D ry c a rg o F V -F is h in g v e s s e ls 7.3 A ir b o r n e a n d w a te r b o r n e n o is e P a g e 3 1

35 A irb o rn e a n d w a te rb o rn e n o is e is p re d ic te d fo r ic e b re a k e rs /re s e a rc h v e s s e ls a n d T a n k e rs (re p re s e n ts c a rg o tra n s p o rt). T h e p re d ic tio n is b a s e d o n e m p iric a l a n d s ta tis tic a l d a ta m e a s u re d o n s im ila r b u t n o t n e c e s s a ry id e n tic a l v e s s e ls. T a n k e rs o f a b o u t D T W a n d c o n v e n tio n a l re s e a rc h v e s s e ls a n d s e is m ic v e s s e ls a re u s e d in th e p re d ic tio n. T h e p re d ic tio n is m e a n t a s a ro u g h e s tim a tio n o f th e n o is e le v e ls in a ir a n d w a te r A ir b o r n e N o is e A irb o rn e n o is e p lo tte d a s a fu n c tio n o f th e d is ta n c e fro m th e v e s s e l is s h o w n in fig u re 7.1 fo r ic e b re a k e r a n d ta n k e rs. A ir b o r n e n o is e le v e ls fr o m O il T a n k e r & Ic e B r e a k e r E q u iv a le n t N o is e L e v e l [d B (A ) r e. 2 0 m P a ] D is ta n c e fr o m s h ip [m ] F ig u r e 7.1 A ir b o r n e n o is e v s. d is ta n c e O il T a n k e r Ic e B re a k e r T h e m a in n o is e s o u rc e s o n b o a rd th e v e s s e ls a re e x p e c te d to b e : E x h a u s t o u tle ts F a n s (in le ts /o u tle ts ) N o is e fro m th e s e s o u rc e s is g e n e ra l a t fre q u e n c y o f H z. T h e p re d ic te d n o is e le v e ls fro m th e ic e b re a k e rs d o n o t in c lu d e n o is e fro m th e ic e b re a k in g p ro c e s s W a te r b o r n e n o is e S h ip s in o p e n w a te r p ro d u c e n o is e th a t in c re a s e s w ith in c re a s in g s p e e d. M o n ito rin g o f a n ic e -b re a k e r a n d s m a lle r b o a ts o p e ra tin g a ro u n d d rillin g s ite s s h o w e d a lm o s t th e s a m e m a g n itu d e o f s o u n d p re s s u re le v e ls. Ic e b re a k e rs p ro d u c e m u c h n o is e th a t is d o m in a te d b y th e c a v ita tio n n o is e p ro d u c e d b y th e p ro p e lle rs. T h e n o is e fro m th e m a c h in e ry a n d b y th e im p a c t o f th e s h ip w ith th e ic e c o v e r c o n trib u te s little to th e to ta l n o is e a t s o m e d is ta n c e fro m th e v e s s e l. T h e s o u rc e s tre n g th is h ig h e s t a t th e P a g e 3 2

36 0 P A M E S n a p s h o t A n a ly s is lo w e s t fre q u e n c ie s (b e lo w H z ) a n d c a n b e d e te c te d u p to a d is ta n c e o f 5 5 k m in o p e n w a te r a n d u p to 3 3 k m in fa s t ic e (S e v e rin s e n & H a n s s o n ). P re d ic te d w a te rb o rn e n o is e le v e ls fro m ic e b re a k e rs a n d ta n k e rs is s h o w n in fig u re 7.2 : T h e m a in n o is e s o u rc e s fo r th e w a te rb o rn e n o is e a re e x p e c te d to b e : p ro p e lle r e n g in e s m o u n te d d ire c tly o n th e h u ll N o is e fro m th e s e s o u rc e s is g e n e ra l a t lo w fre q u e n c y o f Hz As for the airborne noise, noise from the ice breaking process is not included in the prediction for waterborne noise. Comparing the predicted noise levels to the industrial limit of acceptable noise in Norway (50 db(a)) the minimum distance from the vessels to the emission point is: icebreaker: 750 m tanker: 1200 m W a te r b o r n e N o is e fr o m O il T a n k e r & Ic e B r e a k e r P r e s s u r e (m e a n H z, n o r m a liz e d to 1 H z b a n d w ith ) [d B r e. 1 P a ] D is ta n c e [k m ] F ig u r e 7.2 : W a te r b o r n e n o is e fr o m Ic e OB reil a k Te r a n k e r a n d I c e B r e a k e r ( m ) O il T a n k e r Threshold of hearing for cod and herring is shown in figure 7.3. The figure shows that the herring can hear the sound in the water much better than the cod. Comparing the noise levels in figures 7.2 with the threshold for hearing for the fishes herring and cod in figure 7.3, the following is found: Max. distance the cod could hear the Ice Breaker: 35 m Max. distance the cod could hear the Oil Tanker: 70 m Max. distance the herring could hear the Ice Breaker: m Max. distance the herring could hear the Oil Tanker: m P a g e 3 3

37 F ig u r e 7.3 : T h r e s h o ld o f h e a r in g o f c o d, h e r r in g a n d h u m a n e a r. S o u r c e : E n g e r & A n d e r s e n M a rin e m a m m a ls (w h a le s a n d s e a ls ) c a n h e a r a s w e ll a s h u m a n b e in g s in a ir. In w a te r th e y c a n h e a r b e tte r th a n th e c a rn iv o re s o n la n d, a n d th e y h a v e a v e ry g o o d d ire c tio n a l h e a rin g. F o r e a c h s p e c ie s th e re is a ra n g e o f fre q u e n c ie s w h e re h e a rin g th re s h o ld is lo w. B e lo w a n d a b o v e th is ra n g e th e h e a rin g th re s h o ld in c re a s e w ith d e c re a s in g o r in c re a s in g fre q u e n c y. T h e s e n s itiv ity a t lo w fre q u e n c ie s is e s p e c ia lly in te re s tin g, b e c a u s e it is in th is fre q u e n c y ra n g e m o s t in d u s tria l n o is e is fo u n d. In m a n y w h a le s th e s e n s itiv ity s e e m s to d e c lin e ra p id ly firs t a b o v e k H z. S o m e s e a l s p e c ie s a re k n o w n to d e te c t fre q u e n c ie s u n d e r w a te r fro m 1 to k H z. T h e e ffe c t o f d iffe re n t k in d s o f n o is e s h o w s g re a t v a ria n c e b e tw e e n s p e c ie s. S o m e s p e c ie s re a c t p o w e rfu lly, w h ile o th e rs d o n o t re a c t a t a ll. T h is is e x e m p lifie d b y th e p ro b le m th e fis h e rm e n h a v e w ith k e e p in g s e a ls a w a y fro m th e ir fis h in g n e ts (S e v e rin s e n & H a n s s o n ). T h e e ffe c t o f th is n o is e o n m a rin e m a m m a ls is n o t fu lly u n d e rs to o d. R e p o rte d e ffe c ts o f s h ip s in o p e n w a te r to m a rin e m a m m a ls a re fe w. S o m e tim e s w h a le s m a y a p p ro a c h a v e s s e l a n d s u rfin g th e fro n t w a v e o f th e v e s s e l. In o th e r o c c a s io n s th e y m a y a b a n d o n a n a re a w h e n a v e s s e l is a rriv in g. T h e re a re in d ic a tio n s th a t m a rin e m a m m a ls g e t P a g e 3 4

38 h a b itu a te d to in d u s tria l n o is e. It s h o u ld b e n o te d h o w e v e r, th a t lo n g te rm im p a c t is y e t to b e m o n ito re d a n d fu lly u n d e rs to o d. P re c a u tio n s h o u ld th e re fo re b e ta k e n w h e n im p a c tin g u n d is tu rb e d a re a s (S e v e rin s e n & H a n s s o n ). P a g e 3 5

39 8 C O N C E R N S R E L A T E D T O M A R I T I M E A C T I V I T I E S T h e s e a s o f th e A rc tic a re e x p o s e d to s ig n ific a n t re g u la r d is c h a rg e s fro m lo c a l s o u rc e s b o th d ire c tly a n d v ia th e la rg e riv e rs, a s w e ll a s lo n g ra n g e tra n s p o rt o f c o n ta m in a n ts v ia th e a tm o s p h e re a n d o c e a n c u rre n ts. T h is is o u tlin e d in m o re d e ta ils in a p p e n d ix A c c id e n ts in th e A r c tic A d e ta ile d s tu d y h a s b e e n p e rfo rm e d in C a n a d a (T C ) re la te d to a c c id e n ts in It s h o u ld b e n o te d th a t fis h e rie s, re s e a rc h v e s s e ls, ic e b re a k e rs a n d o il a n d g a s in d u s try s u p p o rt v e s s e ls a re n o t in c lu d e d in th e s tu d y. T h e a c c id e n ta l ris k w a s d o c u m e n te d to b e 5 tim e s h ig h e r in th e h e a v ily ic e -in fe c te d re g io n s, o f w h ic h a p p ro x im a te ly 5 0 % o f th is in c re a s e w e re d u e to n o n -ic e d a m a g e. T h e m a in c a u s e s w e re d u e to h u m a n e rro r (5 5 % ), e q u ip m e n t/s tru c tu re (1 2 % ) a n d u n k n o w n (1 3 % ). In g e n e ra l it w a s c o n c lu d e d th a t th e ris k o f a c c id e n ts w a s h ig h e r in h e a v ily ic e -in fe c te d a re a s o f th e A rc tic th a n in o th e r a re a s. W o rk p e rfo rm e d in N o rw a y in c lu d in g S v a lb a rd (J o h a n n e s s e n ) s h o w s th a t a c c id e n ts a re e v e n ly d is trib u te d a lo n g th e c o a s ta l a re a s. In a re a s o f little o r n o ic e th e a c c id e n ta l ra te is n o t e x p e c te d to b e h ig h e r th a n in o th e r a re a s. G ro u n d in g, c o llis io n s a n d fire /e x p lo s io n a m o u n te d to a b o u t 7 5 % o f th e in c id e n ts. F is h in g v e s s e ls is b y fa r th e la rg e s t g ro u p a n d c o n s titu te d to a b o u t 4 0 % o f th e in c id e n ts a n d d ry b u lk a b o u t 2 5 %. C e rta in p a rts o f th e A rc tic h a v e re g io n s o f in a d e q u a te h y d ro g ra p h ic in fo rm a tio n. H e n c e it is a s s u m e d th a t th e ris k s o f a c c id e n ts in h e a v ily ic e -in fe c te d a re a s a re h ig h e r th a n in o th e r a re a s. T h e c a u s e s m a y h o w e v e r, n o t e x c lu s iv e ly b e d u e to ic e d a m a g e. F ig u r e 8.1. T h is T y p e D B u lk C a r r ie r w a s d a m a g e d b y ic e in H u d s o n S tr a it. P r o v id e d b y T r a n s p o r t C a n a d a. P a g e 3 6

40 8.2 E n v ir o n m e n ta l I m p a c t o f s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s M a ritim e a c tiv itie s m a y in te ra c t w ith th e e n v iro n m e n t in s e v e ra l w a y s. Im p a c ts fro m th e s h ip p in g a c tiv ity c a n b e d iv id e d in to re g u la r o p e ra tio n s a n d a c c id e n ta l e v e n ts R e g u la r o p e r a tio n s T h e re g u la r o p e ra tio n s a re a p o in t s o u rc e o f lo n g -te rm a n d lo w le v e l e x p o s u re. O p e ra tio n a l d is c h a rg e s fro m s h ip p in g a re g e n e ra te d b y o p e ra tio n s o n b o a rd (o il, c h e m ic a ls, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e ) o r d u rin g c a rg o o p e ra tio n s (o il, c h e m ic a ls, v a p o u r a n d d u s t). O th e r fo rm s o f d is c h a rg e s a re c a u s e d b y e m is s io n s to a ir (C O 2, N O x, S O 2, V O C, a n d p a rtic u la rs ). R e le a s e o f T B T fro m a n ti-fo u lin g p a in ts is k n o w n to h a v e im p a c t o n s e v e ra l m a rin e o rg a n is m s. N o is e a n d p h y s ic a l d is tu rb a n c e a re o th e r im p a c t fa c to rs g e n e ra te d b y fre q u e n t n a v ig a tio n in ic e -in fe c te d a re a s (B ru d e e t a l ). O ily w a s te s, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e a re to b e d is c h a rg e d o n s h o re a c c o rd in g to lo c a l a n d in te rn a tio n a l le g is la tio n. T h e n u m b e r o f o ffs h o re fa c ilitie s fo r w a s te s h a n d lin g a n d th e re s p e c tiv e ly lo w c a p a c ity in th e A rc tic re s u lt in a n in c re a s e in o n b o a rd in c in e ra tio n g iv in g in p u t to th e e m is s io n to a ir. It is a ls o e x p e rie n c e d th a t d u e to la c k o f fa c ilitie s s e w a g e, g a rb a g e a n d o ily w a s te s a re k n o w n d u m p e d o ffs h o re. T ra n s fe r o f liv in g o rg a n is m s (a q u a tic p la n ts, a n im a ls a n d p a th o g e n s ) v ia b a lla s t w a te r h a s b e e n k n o w n to o c c u r s in c e th e b e g in n in g o f th e 2 0 th c e n tu ry. T h e e x te n t o f th is tra n s fe r h a s s in c e th e n in c re a s e d w ith g ro w in g m a ritim e a c tiv ity a n d la rg e r a n d fa s te r s h ip s. C a rlto n ( ) h a s g iv e n a c o m p re h e n s iv e re v ie w o f b a lla s t w a te r h is to ry. U n d e s ira b le s p re a d in g o f e x o tic o rg a n is m s h a s b e e n d e s c rib e d a s th e b ig g e s t th re a t to b io d iv e rs ity a n d a s th e n e x t b ig p o llu tio n c h a lle n g e fo r th e s h ip p in g in d u s try c a u s in g irre v e rs ib le p ro c e s s e s e ffe c tin g h u m a n h e a lth a n d in d u s tria l a c tiv itie s a s w e ll a s th e e c o lo g ic a l b a la n c e o f th e s e a s. In s e v e ra l c a s e s th e in tro d u c tio n o f n o n -in d ig e n o u s s p e c ie s h a v e c a u s e d g re a t e c o n o m ic c o n s e q u e n c e s, a n d th e re is a n in c re a s in g re a lis a tio n o f th e e c o lo g ic a l c o s ts o f b io lo g ic a l in v a s io n s in th e irre trie v a b le lo s s o f n a tiv e b io d iv e rs ity. A lo n g w ith g ro w in g c o n c e rn o n th e s e e ffe c ts, th e re h a s b e e n a n in c re a s in g a m o u n t o f re s e a rc h re la te d to th e d is p e rs a l o f o rg a n is m s a n d tra n s fe r v ia b a lla s t w a te r d u rin g th e la s t d e c a d e s. C o n c lu s io n Im p a c ts fro m lo n g -te rm re g u la r d is c h a rg e s fro m m a ritim e a c tiv itie s a re o f e n v iro n m e n ta l c o n c e rn. T h e c o n c lu s io n s fro m p re v io u s w o rk s in d ic a te th a t a t p re s e n t th e im p a c t in th e A rc tic o f re g u la r le g a l o p e ra tio n a l d is c h a rg e s o f o il, s e w a g e a n d o th e r w a s te s is lo w. H o w e v e r, lo n g -te rm e ffe c ts o f c h ro n ic lo w le v e l c o n ta m in a n ts a re n o t fu lly re s e a rc h e d a n d u n d e rs to o d o n A rc tic e c o s y s te m s. A p re c a u tio n a ry a p p ro a c h s h o u ld b e a d o p te d a n d u n til re s e a rc h c a n p ro v e a c c e p ta b le e ffe c t d u e to re g u la r d is c h a rg e s fro m s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s, th e s e s h o u ld b e a s s e s s e d a n d c o n tro lle d. T h e e x p e c te d in c re a s e in s h ip p in g a c tiv ity in th e A rc tic s u g g e s ts a ls o th e n e e d fo r m e a s u re s a n d c o n tro l w ith re s p e c t to o p e ra tio n a l d is c h a rg e s. A d d re s s in g th is c o n c e rn P A M E s h o u ld fo llo w th e A M A P w o rk o n im p a c ts o f p o llu ta n ts in th e m a rin e A rc tic. P a g e 3 7

41 8.2.2 A c c id e n ta l e v e n ts D is c h a rg e s c a u s e d b y a c c id e n ta l e v e n ts a re m a in ly c a u s e d b y c o llis io n s, g ro u n d in g s o r fire s. D is c h a rg e s w ill m a in ly b e re la te d to s m a lle r a m o u n ts o f c a rg o a n d b u n k e r, b u t c a n a ls o c a u s e a m a jo r e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t. In a d d itio n th e re s c u e o p e ra tio n s d u rin g a n a c c id e n t m a y c a u s e im p a c t to th e e n v iro n m e n t. S ig n ific a n t e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c ts to th e A rc tic m a rin e e n v iro n m e n t c a n b e e x p e c te d fro m la rg e r a c c id e n ta l d is c h a rg e s o f o il a n d /o r c h e m ic a ls. A n u m b e r o f s e n s itiv e a re a s a n d re s o u rc e s a re id e n tifie d in th e A rc tic a n d a re re g a rd e d a s v u ln e ra b le d u e to th e ir e c o lo g ic a l fe a tu re s. A c c id e n ta l d is c h a rg e s in a re a s o f b re e d in g, s p a w n in g a n d m a jo r fe e d in g a re a s c a n h a v e s e rio u s lo n g -te rm e ffe c ts, p a rtic u la rly g iv e n th e lo w re p ro d u c tio n ra te s a n d th e s tra te g y o f e n e rg y s to ra g e in fa tty tis s u e th a t is c o m m o n in A rc tic s p e c ie s. P re s e n tly s e v e re a c u te m a rin e p o llu tio n d u e to a c c id e n ta l e v e n ts is n o t o fte n re p o rte d fo r th e A rc tic re g io n (B ru d e e t a l ). H o w e v e r, th e ris k o f a c c id e n ts to o c c u r ris e s w ith th e fre q u e n c y o f v o y a g e s. T h e C a n a d ia n a s s e s s m e n t (T C ) s h o w in c re a s e d ris k o f a c c id e n ts in ic e -in fe c te d a re a s (u p to 5 tim e s ). T h e e x p e c te d in c re a s e in m a ritim e a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic re g io n m a y th e re fo re im p ly a n in c re a s e d ris k o f a c c id e n ts. T h e n e e d fo r e n s u rin g s u ffic ie n t v e s s e l s ta n d a rd s is s tre s s e d. F u rth e r m o re, c o n tin g e n c y p la n n in g s h o u ld b e e v a lu a te d a n d a s s e s s e d. 8.3 E n v ir o n m e n ta l r e s o u r c e s a t r is k In c o m p a ris o n w ith m o s t o th e r a re a s o f th e w o rld, the Arctic remains a clean environment. However, for some pollutants, combinations of different factors give rise to concern in certain ecosystems and for some human populations. These circumstances sometimes occur on a local scale, but in some cases may be regional or circumpolar in extent. A set of Valued Ecosystem Components (VEC) and vulnerable components in the Arctic have been defined and assessed by INSROP (1998) and TC (1995). The geographical areas not encompassed by these sources (Greenland, Iceland, western Barents Sea and Alaska) are comparable ecologically to these sources and the combination of these sources is not expected to exclude any potential VECs. The environmental sources consist of ice-edge communities, seabirds, marine mammals, fish resources and several marine organisms and ecosystems. These components are assessed and found to be vulnerable to normal shipping operations both in open water and in ice-affected areas (ice breaking operations). Equally these resources are at risk in accidents. The EPPR (Working Group on Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response) working group of the Arctic Council will produce a report on Circumpolar Map of Resources at Risk from Oil Spills in the Arctic. The intention of the project to produce a series of maps covering the circumpolar area that highlight the areas of highest risk of an oil spill and those areas where sensitive natural resources or subsistence communities exist. In so doing, the project aims to highlight a limited number of conflict areas where the high risk of oil spills and very sensitive resources overlap. To achieve the overall goal of this project, a circumpolar Arctic database will be developed from contributions of the eight Arctic nations containing four categories of information: (1) major potential sources of oil spills, (2) important biological resources at risk in case of a spill (3) subsistence human communities P a g e 3 8

42 liv in g in th e A rc tic, a n d (4 ) p ro te c te d a re a s. T h e p ro je c t w ill g a th e r a n d s y n th e s is e e x is tin g d a ta, a n d c o m p ile a n d m a in ta in th e m in a G IS -d a ta b a s e, w ith a s e p a ra te a p p lic a tio n in te rfa c e th a t c a n b e u s e d to o u tp u t m a p s a s n e e d e d. It is e m p h a s is e d th a t th is p ro je c t is c irc u m p o la r in s c o p e, c o n c e n tra tin g o n th e e le m e n ts o f th e d a ta th a t a re c o n s id e re d to b e o f b ro a d in te re s t in a n in te rn a tio n a l c o n te x t (g u id e lin e s fo r th e working definition of international are found both below and in the supporting documentation). Because of this large-scale (circumpolar) focus, the data coverage is not intended to be exhaustive at local or national levels. For further details the EPPR or Michael Carroll at Akvaplan-niva, Norway can be consulted. Defined VECs by INSROP (1998) and TC (1995) are listed in appendix 5. P a g e 3 9

43 8.4 M a r itim e o p e r a tio n s a t r is k B a s e d o n g e n e ra l k n o w le d g e o f th e im p a c t o f m a ritim e o p e ra tio n s o n th e e n v iro n m e n t, a lis t o f m a jo r h ig h ris k o p e ra tio n s c a n b e g iv e n a s in Table 8.1. Each operation is given a priority as high or low based on a professional scientific perspective. T a b le 8.1 M a r itim e o p e r a tio n s e x p e c te d to h a v e s ig n ific a n t im p a c t o n th e m a r in e e n v ir o n m e n t. P r io r itie s fo r d is c u s s in g P A M E r e s p o n s e a c tio n s a r e in d ic a te d b y th e n u m b e r s : 1 : a c tio n s s h o u ld b e c o n s id e r e d b y P A M E o r 2 : a c tio n s a r e n o t r e c o m m e n d e d a t p r e s e n t. R e g u la r e v e n ts A c tiv ity /O p e r a tio n s I s s u e s o f c o n c e r n P A M E P r io r ity R e a so n in g P A M E r e s p o n s e P r e se n t F u tu r e 1. O n b o a rd p ro d u c tio n o f o ily w a s te s, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e P o s s ib le s h o rta g e o f re c e p tio n fa c ilitie s Ille g a l d is c h a rg e s to s e a O n b o a rd in c in e ra tio n 1 1 P r e se n t: L o n g o p e ra tio n a l p e rio d s a t s e a im p ly w a s te s to ra g e p ro b le m s. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : L o n g o p e ra tio n a l p e rio d s a t se a im p ly w a s te s to ra g e p ro b le m s. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. O b s e rv e im p le m e n ta tio n o f M A R P O L A n n e x e s a n d e n c o u ra g e ra tific a tio n o f th e re le v a n t M A R P O L A n n e x e s *. 2. D is c h a rg e o f b a lla s t w a te r o f fo re ig n o rig in R isk o f re d u c tio n in b io d iv e rs ity b y in tro d u c tio n o f h a rm fu l m a rin e o rg a n is m s to th e A rc tic. 2 1 P r e se n t: L o w a m o u n t o f fo re ig n b a lla s t w a te r d isc h a rg e. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : E x p e c te d h ig h e r v o lu m e s o f b a lla s t w a te r d isc h a rg e d d u e to in c re a s e d ta n k e r a n d b u lk c a rrie r a c tiv ity. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. In lig h t o f th e IM O d e v e lo p m e n ts id e n tify th e n e e d fo r A rc tic m e a s u re s o n b a lla s t w a te r. 3. R e le a s e o f T B T b y le a c h in g fro m a n ti-fo u lin g p a in ts R isk o f re d u c tio n in b io d iv e rs ity 2 2 P r e se n t: S m a ll a m o u n ts o f v e s s e ls h e n c e lo w T B T in p u t to th e e n v iro n m e n t. F u tu r e : E x p e c te d b a n o n th e u s e o f T B T a s a n a n tifo u lin g a g e n t in P A M E s h o u ld o b s e rv e IM O d e v e lo p m e n ts a n d e n c o u ra g e im p le m e n ta tio n o f in te rn a tio n a l m e a su re s o n T B T. 4. C ru is e s / P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls D is tu rb a n c e o f v u ln e ra b le re s o u rc e s R e fe re n c e is m a d e to a c tiv ity 1 a b o v e. * list of ratified MARPOL Annexes are given in appendix. 2 1 P r e se n t: O n g o in g a c tiv ity is a t a n a c c e p ta b le le v e l P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. F u tu r e : In c re a s e d a c tiv ity is o f c o n c e rn. P o te n tia l im p a c t re la te d to o n b o a rd g e n e ra te d p o llu ta n ts. A n a ly s e e x is tin g a n d p o s s ib le ris k re d u c in g m e a su re s. A n a ly s e th e n e e d fo r jo in t P A M E /C A F F p o lic y. A n a ly s e th e a d e q u a c y o f th e W W F g u id e lin e s o n e c o to u ris m w ith re g a rd s to c o d e s o f c o n d u c t. P a g e 4 0

44 T a b le 8.1 c o n t. A c c id e n ta l e v e n ts A c tiv ity /O p e r a tio n s I s s u e s o f c o n c e r n P A M E P r io r ity R e a so n in g P A M E r e s p o n s e P r e se n t F u tu r e 5. L o a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g a c tiv itie s in g e n e ra l In c re a s e d ris k o f d isc h a rg e s o f o il, o ily w a te r, b ilg e w a te r a n d o th e r h a z a rd o u s su b s ta n c e s. 1 1 P r e se n t: C o m p le x o p e ra tio n s in v o lv in g h u m a n e le m e n t, te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n s o n b o a rd a n d lo a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g fa c ilitie s. F u tu r e : C o m p le x o p e ra tio n s in v o lv in g h u m a n e le m e n t, te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n s o n b o a rd a n d lo a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g fa c ilitie s. A n a ly s e e x is tin g a n d p o s s ib le ris k re d u c in g m e a su re s. A n a ly s e th e n e e d fo r jo in t P A M E /E P P R p o lic y. 6. T a n k e r tra ffic Production field - Terminal Terminal - Export Transport of oil products has high potential impact in case of accidents. 1 1 P r e se n t: The impact of an accident occurring is high. F u tu r e : The impact of an accident occurring is high. The activity is expected to increase. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementation of the Polar Guidelines. Analyse the need for joint PAME/EPPR policy. 7. Heavy bunker oil as cargo and fuel Heavy bunker oil has very high potential impact if discharged to the environment. 1 1 P r e se n t: Heavy bunker oil can be used on several types of vessels, i.e. incidents can occur in all parts of the Arctic where shipping activity takes place. The impact of an accident occurring is very high. F u tu r e : The expected increase in shipping activity strengthens the reasoning given above. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementation of the Polar Guidelines. Analyse the need for joint PAME/EPPR policy. 8. Operation in areas of sea ice or glacial ice concentration Increased risk of accidental impact hence increased risk of pollution. 1 1 P r e se n t: More complex operational regime than open sea operations. F u tu r e : More complex operational regime than open sea operations. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures including remote sensing technologies. Encourage implementation of the Polar Guidelines. Analyse the need for joint PAME/EPPR policy. 9. Tugging / Towing of vessels Increased accidental risk 2 1 P r e se n t: Low frequency of vessel tugging/towing at present. F u tu r e : The activity is expected to increase in the future. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementation of the Polar Guidelines. Analyse the need for joint PAME/EPPR policy. 10. Cruises / Passenger vessels Increased accidental risk in near ice or near shore operation. 2 1 P r e se n t: Low frequency of risk operations of cruises / passenger vessels at present. F u tu r e : The activity is expected to increase in the future hence increased risk. Analyse existing and possible risk reducing measures. Encourage implementation of the Polar Guidelines. Analyse the need for joint PAME/EPPR policy. P a g e 4 1

45 8.4.1 O p e r a tio n a l e v e n ts O n b o a r d p r o d u c tio n o f o ily w a s te s, s e w a g e a n d g a r b a g e O p e ra tio n in th e A rc tic is o fte n a n o p e ra tio n w ith lo n g p e rio d s a t s e a b e fo re c o m in g in to p o rt. H e n c e th e re m ig h t b e w a s te s to ra g e p ro b le m s o n b o a rd. T h e o c c u rre n c e o f p o rt re c e p tio n fa c ilitie s a n d in fra s tru c tu re fo r h a n d lin g o ily w a s te s, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e is n o t fu lly u n d e rs to o d. In s o m e c a s e s w a s te s a re in c in e ra te d o n b o a rd s o lv in g th e w a s te p ro b le m, le a d in g to e m is s io n s to a ir. H o w e v e r, th e IM O s ta n d a rd s o n in c in e ra to rs s h o u ld b e fo llo w e d. T o s e c u re th e fu ll im p le m e n ta tio n o f M A R P O L A n n e x e s e n te re d in to fo rc e is a n o n g o in g ta s k th a t w ill u s e th e p ro b le m s o c c u rrin g. In a d d itio n th e A rc tic s ta te s s h o u ld c o n trib u te to e n te r in to fo rc e th e M A R P O L A n n e x e s IV a n d V I. T h e a m o u n t o f w a s te, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e p ro d u c e d is re la tiv e ly h ig h. T h e o n s h o re fa c ilitie s a re n o t fu lly u n d e rs to o d in th e A rc tic. U n le s s th e s e p ro d u c ts a re tra n s p o rte d to fa c ilitie s th a t e x is ts in th e A rc tic re g io n o r o u ts id e th e A rc tic th e s e p ro d u c ts a re in c in e ra te d o n b o a rd a n d h e re b y c o n trib u tin g to th e e m is s io n s to a ir. T h e a m o u n t o f w a s te, s e w a g e a n d g a rb a g e fro m c ru is e a n d p a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls is v e ry h ig h c o m p a re d to o th e r v e s s e l tra ffic. It s h o u ld h o w e v e r, b e n o te d th a t m a n y v e s s e ls u s e d fo r th e s e purposes normally hold very high standards and are often optimised with respect to environmental aspects. At present the cruise operations are limited in the Arctic. However, the expected increase in cruise operations in the Arctic places this activity as of major concern with a low operational impact compared to other operational activities in the region. D is c h a r g e o f b a lla s t w a te r o f fo r e ig n o r ig in Introduction of harmful marine species is of concern. Presently the amount of foreign ballast water is low. However, an increase in the traffic is expected to increase the amount of foreign ballast water introduced in the region. Canada will be introducing guidelines for the exchange of ballast water in the fall of There have been two ballast water exchange areas designated, one at the entrance to Lancaster Sound and the other at the entrance to Hudson Strait. IMO is presently working a global instrument on ballast water. The target date for finalising the work within the Marine Environment Committee is The PAME response at present should therefore be to observe the IMO developments prior to taking actions on ballast water management. R e le a s e o f T B T fr o m a n ti fo u lin g p a in ts The release of anti-fouling paints has proven to have adverse impact on the marine environment. The expected IMO ban in use of TBT (in 2003) will reduce this impact in the future hence the use of TBT is given a low PAME priority. However, PAME should observe IMO developments and encourage implementation of international measures on anti-fouling paints. C r u is e s / P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls P a g e 4 2

46 T o u ris m b y c ru is e v e s s e ls m ig h t d is tu rb th e v u ln e ra b le re s o u rc e s in th e ir o p e ra tio n. F u rth e r d o c u m e n ta tio n w ill b e in c lu d e d u s in g in fo rm a tio n fro m o th e r w o rk in g g ro u p s a n d o th e r s o u rc e s lik e W W F, E P P R, IN S R O P a n d C A F F A c c id e n ta l e v e n ts L o a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g a c tiv itie s L o a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g o p e ra tio n s p a rtic u la rly re la te d to o il a n d fu e llin g o p e ra tio n s a re k n o w n to h a v e a h ig h e r ris k o f d is c h a rg e s. T h is is d u e to th e h u m a n e le m e n t, te c h n ic a l s o lu tio n s o n b o a rd a n d lo a d in g a n d u n lo a d in g fa c ilitie s. P o rt s a fe ty p ro c e d u re s d o to s o m e c a s e s re fle c t th e ris k in v o lv e d. G e n e ra l in c re a s e in m a ritim e a c tiv ity w ill in c re a s e s u c h o p e ra tio n s. L o n g -te rm lo w le v e l c o n ta m in a tio n is o f m a jo r c o n c e rn e n v iro n m e n ta lly a n d th e o p e ra tio n s a re p ro p o s e d to h a v e a h ig h P A M E p rio rity. T a n k e r tr a ffic (P r o d u c tio n fie ld Terminal and Terminal - Export) T a n k e r tra ffic in th e A rc tic is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e d u e to th e h ig h e r v o lu m e s o f p e tro le u m a c tiv ity. A n e c o n o m ic g ro w th in A rc tic re g io n w ill re q u ire m o re re fin e d o il p ro d u c ts. T h e re is a ls o a n e x p e c te d in c re a s e o f th e v o lu m e o f u n re fin e d p ro d u c ts b e in g s h ip p e d s o u th w a rd s fro m b o th th e R u s s ia n a n d N o rw e g ia n A rc tic a re a s. T h e ta n k e r tra ffic a ls o in c lu d e s th e in tro d u c tio n o f s h u ttle ta n k e rs tra n s p o rtin g p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts fro m th e p ro d u c tio n s ite s to te rm in a ls. T a n k e r tra ffic its e lf is n o t e x p e c te d to h a v e a h ig h e r ra te o f a c c id e n ts th a n o th e r tra ffic, h o w e v e r, th e p o te n tia lly h ig h e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f a ta n k e r a c c id e n t w ith a n o il s p ill a d d re s s e s th e n e e d fo r p re c a u tio n re la te d to th is a c tiv ity. T ra n s fe r o p e ra tio n s o f o il fro m p ro d u c tio n s ite s o r o il te rm in a ls a n d th e ir fu rth e r e x p o rt a re g iv e n a h ig h im p a c t p o te n tia l. P re s e n c e o f ta n k e rs w ith d o u b le h u ll is e x p e c te d to b e h ig h e r in th e fu tu re. A ll c la s s e d ta n k e rs d e liv e re d a fte r m id s h a v e d o u b le h u ll / d o u b le b o tto m. Heavy bunker oil as cargo and fuel T h e u s e o f h e a v y b u n k e r a s fu e l o r tra n s p o rte d a s c a rg o is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e w ith a n in c re a s e o f in d u s tria l a c tiv ity. T h e tra ffic in its e lf is n o t e x p e c te d to h a v e a h ig h e r ra te o f a c c id e n ts th a n o th e r tra ffic. H o w e v e r, th e p o te n tia l h ig h e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f a n a c c id e n t w ith a s p ill o f h e a v y b u n k e r a d d re s s e s th e n e e d fo r p re c a u tio n s re la te d to th is a c tiv ity. T h e e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f h e a v y b u n k e r is o b s e rv e d in s e v e ra l in c id e n ts a n d is la te ly a d d re s s e d in th e IM O a s a fo llo w u p o f th e N a c h o c ta a n d E r ik a a c c id e n ts. Operation in areas of sea ice or glacial ice concentration A re a s o f h ig h ic e c o n c e n tra tio n s h a v e b e e n id e n tifie d a s h a v in g a h ig h e r ris k o f a c c id e n ts a lth o u g h th o s e m e c h a n is m s h a v e n o t b e e n fu lly o u tlin e d. A n in c re a s e in m a ritim e a c tiv ity is e x p e c te d to in v o lv e s u c h o p e ra tio n s, u n le s s re g u la tio n s / v o lu n ta ry p ro c e d u re s (i.e. P o la r G u id e lin e s ) a re e s ta b lis h e d. T h is ty p e o f o p e ra tio n h a s a h ig h im p a c t p o te n tia l. Tugging / Towing of vessels P a g e 4 3

47 T o w in g o f v e s s e ls fo r s c ra p p in g is re g a rd e d a s a h ig h ris k o p e ra tio n th a t c a n re s u lt in g ro u n d in g. P re s e n tly th e to w in g a c tiv ity e x te n d s fro m n o rth w e s t R u s s ia in a s o u th w e s te rly d ire c tio n to fo re ig n d e s tin a tio n s o u ts id e th e A rc tic. T o w in g is e x p e c te d to in c re a s e a s th e a g e o f th e A rc tic fle e t in c re a s e s. E x p e rie n c e in la rg e d is ta n c e to w in g o p e ra tio n s o f v e s s e ls v a rie s a n d h a s c a u s e d g re a t c o n c e rn d u e to s e v e ra l g ro u n d in g c a s u a ltie s (e.g. th e g ro u n d in g o f th e M u r m a n s k a n d th e B o ik y o u ts id e th e n o rth e rn c o a s t o f N o rw a y.) T h e d ire c t e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f s u c h a n in c id e n t d e p e n d s u p o n w h e re a n d w h e n it o c c u rs a n d th e c o n te n t o f th e to w. T h is o p e ra tio n is a t p re s e n t c o n s id e re d a s o n e o f lo w im p a c t d u e to lo w a c tiv ity. In th e C a n a d ia n A rc tic tu g g in g a n d to w in g o p e ra tio n s a re a lm o s t e x c lu s iv e ly lim ite d to tu g s to w in g b a rg e s lo a d e d w ith fu e l a n d s u p p lie s d e s tin e fo r re m o te c o m m u n itie s. E x p e rie n c e w ith th is a c tiv ity s h o w s th a t th e re a re a t p re s e n t n o t s ig n ific a n t re a s o n fo r e n v iro n m e n ta l c o n c e rn. C r u is e s / P a s s e n g e r v e s s e ls C ru is e s in th e A rc tic ta k e p la c e in lig h t ic e o r o p e n w a te r s e a s o n s, m a in ly in J u n e - A u g u s t. T h e g e n e ra l a c c id e n ta l ris k im p o s e d b y h u ll / ic e in te ra c tio n is th e re fo r lo w. In m a n y c a s e s to u r o p e ra to rs p la c e th e ir s h ip s n e a r th e ic e -e d g e o r s h o re lin e in o rd e r to g iv e th e ir p a s s e n g e rs a n a tu ra l e x p e rie n c e. T h e s e s a m e a re a s a re im p o rta n t fo r th e e c o s y s te m a n d m a n y v u ln e ra b le re s o u rc e s a re a g g re g a te d in h ig h c o n c e n tra tio n s d u rin g th e s p rin g a n d s u m m e r m o n th s (fe e d in g, n u rs in g ). T h e lo n g te rm e ffe c ts o f th e p re s e n c e o f v e s s e ls in th e s e a re a s a re n o t fu lly u n d e rs to o d. A t p re s e n t th e re a re re la tiv e ly fe w c ru is e o p e ra tio n s in th e A rc tic c o m p a re d to m o re te m p e ra te re g io n s. H o w e v e r, th e e x p e c te d g ro w th o f th e to u ris m in d u s try in th e A rc tic p la c e s th is a c tiv ity a s o n e o f m a jo r c o n c e rn R is k r e d u c in g m e a s u r e s R is k re d u c in g m e a s u re s c a n b e fo u n d in e x is tin g IM O in s tru m e n ts a n d in th e ir p re s e n t a n d fu tu re a m e n d m e n ts, a n d in th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f n e w IM O in s tru m e n ts. In a d d itio n n a tio n a l, b ila te ra l a n d m u ltin a tio n a l m e a s u re s c a n b e a re c o m m e n d e d s tra te g y re g a rd in g s o m e is s u e s o f c o n c e rn. A P A M E p ro c e s s o f a n a ly s in g e x is tin g a n d p o s s ib le n e w ris k re d u c in g m e a s u re s is re c o m m e n d e d. It is a ls o re c o m m e n d e d th a t P A M E c o -o p e ra te w ith E P P R o r o th e r a p p ro p ria te w o rk in g g ro u p s w ith in th e A rc tic c o -o p e ra tio n in th e fu rth e r p ro c e s s o f a n a ly s in g p o s s ib le m e a s u re s o n s h ip p in g a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic. P a g e 4 4

48 9 A D E Q U A T E M E A S U R E S 9.1 A d e q u a te M e a s u r e s A s p a rt o f q u e s tio n n a ire p ro d u c e d fo r P A M E in (D N V ) a s e t o f k e y m e a s u re s w e re id e n tifie d. A t th e P A M E m e e tin g in H a lifa x, it w a s c o n c lu d e d th a t th e n u m b e r a n d d e ta il o f m e a s u re s w h e re to o c o m p re h e n s iv e a n d th e c o s ts re la te d to c o lle c tin g s u c h d a ta w o u ld b e v e ry h ig h. It w a s re c o m m e n d e d to p e rfo rm a s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is b a s e d o n a s m a lle r n u m b e r o f m e a s u re s a t a lo w e r le v e l o f d e ta il. In a q u e s tio n n a ire w a s p re s e n te d fo r th e p u rp o s e o f p e rfo rm in g th e s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is. T a b le p re s e n ts th e m e a s u re s id e n tifie d a n d p ro p o s e d a s re le v a n t fo r p e rfo rm in g a c c u ra te a n d d e ta ile d s n a p s h o t a n a ly s is o n th e p o s s ib le e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t o f m a ritim e a c tiv itie s in th e A rc tic. E a c h o f th e m e a s u re s w a s re q u e s te d g iv e n o n tra d e le v e l w h e re th e tra d e s w e re to b e s p e c ifie d b y e a c h c o u n try. T h e s e m e a s u re s a re n o t o n ly a p p lic a b le fo r a n a ly s is in th e A rc tic b u t in g e n e ra l te rm s fo r a d e fin e d g e o g ra p h ic a l a re a. T a b le 9.1. P r o p o s e d a d e q u a te m e a s u r e s fo r a s s e s s in g a n d a n a ly s in g th e p o s s ib le environmental impact of maritime activities. The priority indicates what measures that should have the highest priority when collecting data. M e a s u r e C o m m e n ts P r io r ity S h ip ty p e N u m b e r o f T ra v e ls p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry It is n e c e s s a ry to d iffe re n tia te b y s h ip ty p e d u e to d iffe re n t o p e ra tio n a l p a tte rn s. A n a n a ly s is s h o u ld d iffe re n tia te b y s h ip s iz e c a te g o rie s d u e to d iffe re n t o p e ra tio n a l p a tte rn s. N o o f v e s s e ls p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f v e s s e ls a n d S u m D W T o r G T in e a c h s iz e c a te g o ry a d d re s s e s th e v o lu m e b ia s. 1 S u m D W T o r G T p e r s h ip s iz e 1 c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f C re w /P a s s e n g e rs p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f P o rt H o u rs p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f O p e ra tin g H o u rs p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f v e s s e ls p e r h u ll ty p e p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f v e s s e l p e r a g e c la s s p e r s h ip s iz e c a te g o ry N u m b e r o f c re w a n d p a s s e n g e rs g iv e in p u t to a n a ly s is o f v o lu m e o f s e w a g e, g a rb a g e a n d w a s te s o f s h ip p in g o p e ra tio n s. N u m b e r o f P o rt H o u rs a n d O p e ra tin g H o u rs p e r s iz e c a te g o ry a d d re s s e s th e o p e ra tio n p a tte rn o f th e fle e t a n d h e re b y a ffe c ts a n a ly s is o f o p e ra tio n a l im p a c ts. T h e m e a s u re o n h u ll ty p e w ill g iv e in p u t to a n a ly s is o f p o s s ib le a c c id e n ta l ris k. A g e c la s s d iffe re n tia tio n w ill g iv e in p u t to e n g in e e ffic ie n c y a n d h e re b y c a lc u la tio n s o n e m is s io n s to a ir. T h e m e a s u re w ill a ls o g iv e in p u t to a n a ly s is o f fu tu re s c ra p p in g fre q u e n c y a n d p o s s ib le a c c id e n ta l ris k P a g e 4 5

49 9.2 A v a ila b ility o f A d e q u a te m e a s u r e s In th e p re s e n t w o rk s o u rc e s o f in te rn a tio n a l s h ip p in g s ta tis tic s a re id e n tifie d a n d in fo rm a tio n c o lle c te d. B a s e d o n th e fe e d b a c k fro m th e A rc tic c o u n trie s, it c a n b e c o n c lu d e d th a t fo r th e A rc tic re g io n a s a w h o le c o n s is te n t d a ta o f th e m e a s u re s lis te d in ta b le 9.1 is n o t a v a ila b le. H o w e v e r, in d iv id u a l c o u n trie s h a v e s e v e ra l o f th e lis te d m e a s u re s a v a ila b le, a lth o u g h n o t e a s ily a c c e s s ib le. A t p re s e n t, m a jo r e ffo rts a re re q u ire d fo r th e c o lle c tio n o f d a ta w h e n e v e r a n a n a ly s is is re q u e s te d. A n o p tio n a l m e th o d o lo g y fo r fu tu re tre n d a s s e s s m e n ts is o u tlin e d fo r th is p u rp o s e u s in g o v e ra ll a n d g e n e ra l s ta tis tic s w e re re la tio n s h ip s b e tw e e n re le v a n t a n d a d e q u a te m e a s u re s a s g iv e n in ta b le 9.1 a re e s ta b lis h e d e m p iric a lly. P a g e 4 6

50 1 0 R E F E R E N C E S A M A P A s s e s s m e n ts ( ). h ttp ://w w w.g rid a.n o /a m a p A n o n N o rth S e a Q u a lity S ta tu s R e p o rt N o rth S e a T a s k F o rc e. Brude, O.W., Moe., K.., Bakken, V., Hansson, R., Larsen, L.H., Løvås, S.M., Thomassen, J. & Wiige, Ø Northern Sea Route Dynamic Environmental Atlas. Carlton, J. T Transoceanic and interoceanic dispersal of coastal marine organisms: The biology of ballast water. Oceanogr. Mar. Biol. Ann. Rev. 23, COADS. The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Standard 1a, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA). Corbett, J.J., P.S. Fischbeck, and S.N. Pandis, Global Nitrogen and Sulfur Emissions Inventories for Oceangoing Ships, J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s ic a l R e s e a r c h, (D3), Corbett, J.J., P.S. Fischbeck, c o m m u n ic a tio n s b y E -m a il, December DNV PAME Data Collection and Sharing System. Proposals on Conceptual Design. DNV report Carried out by Moe, K.A., Skeie, G.M., Behrens., H.L., Førsund., H-M., Melbye, A.G. & Nesse, S. DNV PAME Data Collection and Sharing System. Specification of Data Formats. DNV report Carried out by Behrens., H.L. and Andersen, Aa. B.. Det Norske Veritas (DNV), 1998b. Information from DNV s internal databases. Det Norske Veritas (DNV), 1998c, DA T A A N D A L G O R IT H M S F O R S H IP P O L L U T IO N, IN T E R N A L R E P O R T , 1998 (1). Det Norske Veritas (DNV) 1999, Reference values for ship pollution, internal report EMEP/CORINAIR,EMEP Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe, The Core Inventory of Air Emissions in Europe (CORINAIR), A tm o s p h e r ic E m is s io n In v e n to r y G u id e b o o k, Second Edition, September P a g e 4 7

51 E n g e r a n d A n d e rs e n, A n e le c tro p h y s io lo g ic a l fie ld s ty d y o f h e a rin g in fis h. C o m p. B io c h e m. P h y s io l. 2 2 : F a irp la y, S h ip s d a ta, F a irp la y p u b lic a tio n s L td, 2 0 U lls w a te r C re s c e n t, C o u ls d o n, Surry, CR% HR, UK Flugsrud, K. and Haakonsen, G Utslipp til luft fra utenlanske skip i norske farvann 1996 og SSB ISBN In Norwegian. Flugsrud, K. and Rypdal, K Utslipp til luft fra innenriks sjøfart, fiske og annen sjøtrafikk mellom norske havner. ISBN Statistics Norway (SSB). In Norwegian. Flugsrud. K. 2000, Project data: U ts lip p til lu ft fr a u te n la n d s k e s k ip i N o r s k e fa r v a n n o g (in N o r w e g ia n ), Statistics Norway (SSB) 2000, ISSN In Norwegian. Harrington, R.L., Marine Engineering, pp. 953, Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, Jersey City, NJ, IMO, Committee agrees to ban toxic anti-fouling paint, Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) - 41st session: 30 March - 3 April, ( IMO Development of guidelines for ships operating in ice-covered waters. Annex 2 Guidelines for ships operating in the Arctic polar waters (Guidelines). DE 43/12 23 December Sub-committee on ship design and equipment. INSROP The Northern Sea Route User Conference. The 21th Century Turning Point for the Northern Sea Route November Executive Summary. A foreign company`s view of NSR technology and infrastructure Perceived problems and uncertainties. Isaksen, personal communications with Ivar Isaksen IPCC, Isensee et. al, Emission of Antifouling Biocides into the North Sea- An estimate, German Journal of Hydrography, VOL. 46 NO. 4, Ivanov, Y. M., Ushakov, A. P & Yakovlev, A. N Current Use of the Northern Sea Route. INSROP Working paper No IV.1.1. Johannessen, B.O Sannsynlighet for akutte utslipp av olje fra skipstrafikken langs norskekysten. DNV Report 99aaacxv. In Norwegian. P a g e 4 8

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53 Skjølsvik, K.O., Andersen, Aa. B. Corbett, J. J. and Skjelvik, J.M. (2000). Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships, draft Report to the International Maritime Organization. Produced by MARINTEK, Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Centre for Economic Analysis (ECON) and Carnegie Mellon. MT report Mtoo A23-038, Trondheim Norway, February 15, Statistics Norway (SSB) 1998, Utslipp til luft fra utenlandske skip i Norske farvann 1996 og 1997, ISSN In Norwegian. Statistics Norway (SSB) Statistics for Svalbard (Svalbardstatistikk 1999). and Statistics Norway (SSB) 2000, Sjøfarten 1998, M a ritim S ta tis tik k In N o rw e g ia n. T C A n s w e rs a n d b a c k g ro u n d in fo rm a tio n. In re s p o n s e to th e Q u e s tio n n a ire O n S h ip p in g A c tiv itie s. W o rk in g g ro u p o n th e p ro te c tio n o f th e A rc tic M a rin e E n v iro n m e n t (P A M E ). P re p a re d b y S h ip s a fe ty, N o rth e rn R e g io n (T C ), C a n a d ia n C o a s t G u a rd. P a g e 5 0

54 1 1 A P P E N D I X 1 - G E N E R A L B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E A R C T I C D e fin itio n o f th e A r c tic T h e A rc tic re fe rs to th e n o rth e rn m o s t p a rt o f th e w o rld a n d e n c o m p a s s e s th e la n d a n d s e a a re a s a ro u n d th e N o rth P o le, fig u re F ig u r e T h e A r c tic r e g io n, s o u r c e P A M E ( ). A la rg e r p a rt is c o m p ris e d b y th e A rc tic O c e a n a n d is c o v e re d b y ic e. T h e m a rin e b o u n d a ry o f th e A rc tic is fo rm e d w h e n th e w a te r o f th e A rc tic O c e a n, c o o l a n d d ilu te fro m m e ltin g ic e, m e e ts w a rm e r, s a ltie r w a te r fro m th e s o u th e rn o c e a n s. In th e Canadian Arctic Archipelago, this belt is at approximately 63 N and swings north between Baffin Island and the coast of west Greenland. Off the east coast of Greenland, the marine boundary lies at approximately 65 N. In the European Arctic, the marine boundary is much farther north, pushed to about 80 N to the west of Svalbard by the warming effect of the North Atlantic Current. At the other entrance into the Arctic, warm Pacific water flows through the Bering Strait to meet Arctic Ocean water at about 72 N, forming a boundary that stretches from Wrangel Island in the west to Amundsen Gulf in the east. P a g e 5 1