我国一次能源消费的人均碳排放重心 移动及原因分析

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1 24 5 Vol124 No JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES May, 2009, 3,,, ( /, ) :,, , :, 8, :,,,,, : ; ; : F42612 : A : (2009) % [ 1 ],, , [ 2 ],,,, [ 3 5 ] [ 6 ], ; [ 7 ], - -, ; [ 8 ] Kaya,,,,, 1 111,,, : ; : : ( ) ; ( ) : (1986- ),,,, E2mail: dingxiang6@163. com 3 : (1968- ),,,, E2mail: hxj369@ nju. edu. cn

2 834 24, 1874,,, ( ),,,,,,, [ 9 11 ], : X t = C ti x i C ti (1) Y t = C ti y i C ti, X t Y t t, C ti t i, x i y i i 112, ( ) (,, ) ( ), ( t/ tce) 1, 1 ( t/ tce) Table 1 Coefficient of carbon em issions of different types of energy( t/ tce) DOE /E IA [ 3 ] (2) ,, ( 1) ,, 1, :,,, ;,,, 70 km, 5517 km,, , 1998,

3 5 : Fig11 The gravity of carbon em issions per cap ita and its movement trends from 1995 to 2005,,, 2,, Fig12 The changes of longitude and latitude of the gravity of carbon em issions per cap ita from 1995 to 2005, 1998, , 2002,,,,,,, 1997,

4 ,, LA T = LOG , R 2 = ,,, 3,,, 3 Fig13 Regions divided by perpendicular bisector of gravity line,, 2,,,,, Table 2 Ratio of carbon em issions per cap ita of the northeastern part to the southwestern part divided by perpendicular bisector from 1995 to ,

5 5 : 837, , , 417%,, ;,,,, 212,,, 8 ( ), [ 12 ] : 3 C = C i i =1 3 = i =1 E i E C i E E i Y Y P P (3), C, C i i, E, E i i ( i = 3), Y ( GDP), P S i = E i E, i ; F i = C i E i, i ; I = E Y, GDP ; R = Y P, GDP, A : A = C P t : = 3 S i F i IR (4) i =1 A = A t - A o = A S + A F + A I + A R + A rsd (5) D = A t A o = D S D F D I D R D rsd (6), A D t, 1995 A S A F A I A R ; D S D F D I D R, A rsd D rsd Ang 1998 D ivisia [ 13 ], : D S = exp (W A S ), D F = exp (W A F ), D I = exp (W A I ), D R = exp (W A R ), D rsd = 1 : ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) ( )

6 W = lnd A ; A S = i i A R W ln S t i ; A F S o i = i F i, D F i = i i ln Ft i F o i W ; A I W ln R t ; W R o i = A t i - A o i ln A t i A o i = i i W ln It ; I o (7) = 1, Fig14 The trends of contribution rates of three major factors to carbon em issions per cap ita in eight regions from 1995 to 2005, GDP 2000

7 5 : 839,, : 3,, 3, 1995,,,,,,,,, : 3 ( : t/ ) Table 3 Carbon em issions per cap ita in eight comp rehensive econom ic regions( unit: t/person) : 2002,,,,,, : U,, 2000,,, 2000,, :,, 1999 : 2000 ( 2000 ),,, 2001 : U, 2002, 1999,, :,,, U, 2001,, 2001,,, : 2000,,, 2000,,

8 840 24,,,, :, ; 1,, U, 5,, 3,, ;,,, (1) , (2), (3) :,,,,,, 312,, ;,,, ;, ( References) : [ 1 ] IEE of Japan. Handbook of Energy & Statistics in Japan[M ]. International A ssociation for Energy Econom ics, [ 2 ] China Climate Change Group. China Climate Change Country Study[M ]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, [ 3 ],,. [ J ]., 2006, 16 ( 6) : [ XU Guo2quan, L IU Ze2yuan, J IANG Zhao2hua. Decomposition model and emp irical study of carbon em issions for China. China Population, Resources and Environm ent, 2006, 16 (6) : ] [ 4 ],. [ J ]., 2006, 16 (6) : [ PAN Jia2hua, ZHU Xian2li. An analysis of basic needs for human development and its app lications in the design of global climate regime. China Population, Resources and Environm ent,

9 5 : , 16 (6) : ] [ 5 ],. [ J ]., 2002, ( 11) : [ DA I Yan2de, ZHU Yue2zhong. Analysis on China s sustainable energy development and carbon em ission. Energy of China, 2002, (11) : ] [ 6 ],. [ J ]., 2008, 23 ( 2) : [WANG Zheng, ZHU Yong2bin. Study on the status of carbon em ission in p rovincial scale of China and countermeasures for reducing its em ission. B ulletin of Chinese A cadem y of Sciences, 2008, 23 (2) : ] [ 7 ]. [ J ]., 2006, 25 (1) : 1 9. [ ZHANG Lei. A changing pattern of regional CO 2 em issions in China. Geographical R esearch, 2006, 25 (1) : 1-9. ] [ 8 ],. Kaya [ J ]., 2007, 25 ( 11) : [ ZHA Dong2lan, ZHOU De2qun. The inequality about p rovincial energy efficiency and its related CO 2 em ission: Decomposition based on Kaya. System s Engineering, 2007, 25 (11) : ] [ 9 ],. 20 [ J ]., 2001, 21 (5) : [ XU Jian2hua, YUE W en2ze. Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China. Scientia Geographica S inaca, 2001, 21 (5) : ] [ 10 ],,,. [ J ]., 2006, 21 ( 2) : [WANG Ying2hong, GUO Da2zhi, ZHANG Hai2rong, et al. Spatial distribution and applications of coal resource potential in China. Journal of N atural Resources, 2006, 21 (2) : ] [ 11 ],,. [ J ]., 2005, 20 (6) : [L I Jian2ping, ZHANG Bai, ZHANG Shu2qing. Spatial2temporal pattern and driving forces of grassland change in west Ji2 lin Province. Journal of N atural Resources, 2005, 20 (6) : ] [ 12 ] Johan A, Delphine F, Koen S. A shap ley decomposition of carbon em issions without residuals[ J ]. Energy Policy, 2002, 30: [ 13 ] Ang B W, Zhang F Q, Choi K H. Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[ J ]. Energy, 1998, 23 (6) : M ovem en t of the Grav ity of Carbon Em ission s Per Cap ita and Ana lysis of Causes WANG Q ian2qian, HUANG Xian2jin, CHEN Zhi2gang, TAN Dan, CHUA I Xiao2wei (Department of Land Resources and Tourism Sciences/Centre of Nature Resources, Nanjing University, Nanjing , China) Abstract: In order to make the regional differences caused by carbon em issions per cap ita clear, the concep t of gravity is introduced. The locations as well as the changes of gravity from 1995 to 2005 are calculated and the characteristics of the gravity s movements are concluded. Based on that, two methods are used to analyze the causes of the gravity s movements. analysis in which perpendicular bisector of gravity line is emp loyed. is utilized to analyze the contribution rates of each factor to each region. contribution rates of influencing factors vary greatly in different regions. First by the direct Then the decomposition model The results show that the Generally speaking, the main factors that have effects on the amount of carbon em issions per cap ita are econom ic develop2 ment and energy efficiency. Finally, some suggestions are p roposed such as to popularize advanced technology to reduce regional differences in energy efficiency and p ropel the adjustment of energy structure to boost the inhibiting effect that energy structure has on carbon em issions per cap ita. Key words: gravity; carbon em issions; decomposition model