GDP, Jian et al (1996) Bunyaratavej et al (2002) De la Fuente (2003) :430015,

Transcription

1 : 3 : GDP,, :,, GDP,GDP,, GDP, :,, : GDP?, ( )?,,,, GDP, Jian et al (1996) Bunyaratavej et al (2002) De la Fuente (2003) Martin (1996) GDP, OECD, GDP, : U, 1990,1990, Jian et al (1996) (1997) (2004) (2006),,,Jian et al (1996) (1997) (2005),(2003) (2005) (2006) (2006) (2007), (2006) ; (2006),,,, com,, :430015, GDP, Π 74

2 Markandya et al (2004), Garbaccio et al (1999) , Fisher et al (2004),, R&D (2004) GDP, GDP (2004), X ;,, (2005), ,, GDP Markandya et al (2004),Martin (1996) Markandya et al (2004),,30 ( ) :GDP ;, ; ( ) GDP Martin (1996) GDP : : log( y i, t + T Πy i, t )ΠT = - log( y i, t ) + i, t log( y i, t + T Πy i, t )ΠT t t + T i GDP,log ( y i, t ) i t GDP log > 0, GDP, GDP,, T : = Π ( 2005), X,, X 75

3 : = 1,30 GDP, GDP, : ln ( y i, t Πy i, t - 1 ) = + ln ( y i, t - 1 ) + i, t (1) < 0,,GDP GDP,,, GDP ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,GDP,, : y it i t GDP, it i t ; y ft t GDP, ft t : 3 it = A y ft y it ft (2) 3 it i, A,GDP, GDP 1,,,,, : it = i, t it i, t it, it, (2) (3),: ln ( it Π i, t - 1 ) = B + C(ln ft Π i, t - 1 ) + Dln y t + it (4) y t = y ft - y it, it, B = lna, C =, D =,A = exp ( BΠ ) = exp ( BΠC), : = D = D ln ( A) (5) B, (1) GDP, (4) GDP B C D,(5) (1), < 0, (3) Markandya et al (2004) y t = y ut - y it, y t < 0,ln( y t ),,,,y t = y ft Πy it 76

4 (4) B C D, ln ( A), (5), : (1) > 0 GDP 1 %, %,, (2) < 0 GDP 1 %, %,, GDP :, 1995, GDP GDP, 15,, ; GDP,,,,,, GDP,, GDP, , 229, : , GDP,,,, 1, Eviews 510,, GDP GDP( ) (1) (4), (6) (7) : ln ( y i, t Πy i, t - 1 ) = + ln ( y i, t - 1 ) + i H i + k T k + i, t (6), , GDP, 77

5 :, H i = T k =, W i = 1,i i = 1,2,,30 0, 1, k k = 1995,1997,,2002 0, ln ( i, t Π i, t - 1 ) = B + Cln ( f, t Π i, t - 1 ) + Dln y t T k = 1,i i = 16,17,,30 0, 1, k k = 1995,1997,,2002 0,, (6) (7) : Y 1 = + X 1 + i H i : Y 1 = ln ( y i, t Πy i, t - 1 ), X 1 = ln ( y i, t - 1 ) Y 2 = ln ( i, t Π i, t - 1 ), X 2 + iw i + < k T k + i, t (7) + k T k + i, t (8) Y 2 = B + CX 2 + DX 3 + iw i + < k T k + i, t (9) = ln ( f, t Π i, t - 1 ), X 3 (8) 2, 2 : (8), %, 1 % F ; X , t GDP,,, = ln y t GDP t X F R R : % :,, GDP,, 9 10, ; T = 1, T GDP GDP, GDP, (9), 3 (9), %, 1 % F ; X 2 ( ^C = ) X 3 ( ^D = ) 5 % GDP,, 70 %, 60 %,F 78

6 (8) (9) Hausman,F, 1 %,,,, (9) ^B ^C ^D,(5), GDP = ln ( A) ^D^B GDP 1 = 1 GDP ; 1 GDP ; 1 GDP ; 0-1 GDP ; - 1 GDP, %,, GDP 1 %, %,15 : (9) ^B ^C ^D, ^ i, lna = ^BΠ^C ^B i ^B i = ^B + ^ i, (5) GDP i = ^D^B ln ( A), 4 i 3 4 t ^ i ^B i X X W i ^ i F R R Na Na Na : 33 5 % 79

7 : , :, GDP 1,, GDP, :, GDP 1,, GDP,, : GDP,, :,, GDP, GDP,, GDP GDP 1 %, %,,, 8, GDP 6,GDP, :,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,2000 :50,,2003 :, 8,2004 ::,, The Working Papers of RCEWCC, Vol. 1,2007 :,4,2006 :, 1,2006 :,11,2006 : GDP, 6,2006 :, 6,2005 :, 9 80

8 2007 7,2005 :, 5,2006 :, 7,2004 :, 4,2006 : PANEL Data,( ) 4 (http :ΠΠwww. naturalresources. csdb. cnπ) Bunyaratavej, K. and Hahn, E. D., 2002, Measuring Economic Convergence in the European Union : A Hierarchical Modeling Approach, Paper presented at the Academy of International Business Annual Meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico. De la Fuente, A., 2003, Convergence Equations and Income Dynamics : The Sources of OECD Convergence, , Economica 70, pp Fisher2Vanden, K., Jefferson,G. H., Liu,H. M., Tao,Q., 2004, What is Driving Chinaπs Decline in Energy Intensity? Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 26, issue 1, pp Garbaccio, R. F., Ho, M. S. and Jorgenson, D. W., 1999, Why Has the Energy2Output Ratio Fallen in China?, The Energy Journal, 20 (3),pp Jian,T.L.,Sacks,J. D. and Warner,A. M.,1996, Trends in Regional Inequality in China, NBER Working Paper, No Kaitila, V., 2004, Convergence of Real GDP Per Capita in the EU 15 : How Do the Accession Countries Fit in? ENEPRI Working Paper No. 25. European Network of Policy Research Institutes, Brussels. Markandya, A., Pedroso, S. and Golub, A., 2004, Empirical Analysis of National Income and SO2 Emissions in Selected European Countries, FEEM Working Paper, No. 01. Markandya, A., Pedroso, S., and Streimikiene, D., 2004, Energy Efficiency in Transition Economies : Is There Convergence Towards the EU Average? FEEM Working Paper, No. 89. Martin, Sala2I, X. X., 1996, The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis, Economic Journal, Vol. 106, pp World Bank, 1997, Sharing Rising Incomes : Disparities in China, China 2020 series, Washington D. C. Regional Economic Gro wth and Differences of Energy Intensity in China Qi Shaozhou and Luo Wei (Wuhan University ; Hubei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China) Abstract :We suppose that the difference of energy intensity between the Western region and the Eastern region in China is the function of the difference of per capita GDP between the two regions. Then we model the relationship between the two variables together with other regression variables and estimate the coefficients by panel data of 30 provinces from 1995 to Our findings are as follows. Firstly, the difference of per capita GDP tends to convergence between the Western region and the Eastern region. The difference of energy intensity between the two regions, as a whole, also tends to convergence with the convergence of per capita GDP although the convergence speed of the energy intensity is slower than the convergence speed of per capita GDP. Secondly, it is different that the energy intensity of individual province in the Western region shows convergence or divergence. The policy implication of this paper is that the government should encourage and guide different provinces to cooperate by taking advantage of their own energy endowment and the difference of energy intensity when the government makes the strategy of regional economic development. As a result, regional economic growth can be based on saving energy, regional balance and sustainability. Key Words : Per Capita GDP ; Energy Intensity ; Regional Difference ; Convergence JEL Classification :Q430, R110 (: ) ( : ) 81