POLESTAR: A NEXUS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK

Transcription

1 POLESTAR: A NEXUS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK Sustainable Development Fiction or Possibility? By Dr. Richard A. Rosen Tellus Institute - Boston Bonn 2 May 214 Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 1

2 Overview Scenario Overview Macro-drivers Important Methodologies Highlight Key Findings Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land-Use The Big Picutre Quality of Development Index Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 2

3 Scenario Overview Conventional Worlds Market Forces (MF) Market optimism - A rising tide lifts all boats. Social/environmental concerns secondary Policy Reform (PR) Meeting some development targets is imposed highly dependant on government action. Fortress World (FW) Order through strong leaders; armed forces prevent collapse; the rich retreat to enclaves; the poor suffer. Great Transition (GT) Global human solidarity leads to equity; new values protect the environment; de-materialization and approach to steady-state economy. *See Great Transition The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead for more details Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 3

4 Update to Global Scenarios Group of late 199s Core base-year Data used by PoleStar for the scenarios has been updated from 1995 to 25. Input parameters All have been reviewed and updated based on broad literature review and some internal methodologies have been revised. All scenarios have been extended to 21 from 25. This begins to approach the long-run. The PoleStar System software updated PoleStar is a non-economic demand-driven model with a high level of demand disaggregation. Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 4

5 PoleStar Sectors Income distribution/hunger Households Services Industry (6 subsectors) Agriculture Forestry (3 subsectors) Land-Use (1 subsectors) Energy (9 subsectors) Water Pollutants and Climate (7 subsectors) Work (productivity and length of work week) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 5

6 Macro-Drivers Basic drivers of the Market Forces scenario: Population projections MF based on mid-range UN forecast PR non-oecd adjusted down from mid-range 1% in 21 GT all regions adjusted down from mid-range by 22% in 21 FW increased from mid-range by 1% in 21 Income projections (GDP/capita) MF based OECD, World Bank, expert judgment PR massive transfers from OECD to non-oecd OECD growth rates.5% lower relative to MF through 21 Global growth rates.3% greater relative to MF through 25 GT, FW backcast from targets in 21 GT is blended with Policy Reform income trajectory FW is blended with Market Forces income trajectory Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 6

7 Population Figure 1: Global Population Billions of People Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 7

8 Income per Capita Global Average Income 6 Income (1 US PPP$) Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 8

9 Income per Capita by OECD/Non-OECD Income of Rich and Poor Income (GDP per capita in 1 PPP$) MF - OECD GT - OECD MF - nonoecd GT - nonoecd Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 9

10 Important Methodologies Convergence of regional consumption patterns in Conventional Worlds scenarios As incomes of non-oecd regions rise, certain activity levels/technical efficiencies approach those of OECD-regions of the base-year (Technological leapfrogging) Backcasting of consumption patterns in PR, GT, FW Policy Reform From a set of policy goals for each future year: hunger, water stress, CO2 emissions Great Transition From a 21 vision of three regional archetypes of sustainability Builds off Policy Reform prior to 21 Fortress World From a 21 blend of Rich pockets and Poor areas in society (based on MF North America and Africa in 25) Builds off Market Forces prior to 21 Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 1

11 Convergence Example - MF (Energy intensity of iron and steel industry) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 11

12 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land-use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 12

13 Social Indicators in 25 Population Income Hunger (millions) ($/capita) (%) OECD % Non-OECD % World % Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 13

14 Global Income Distribution % of the World's population receives nearly 4% of the income.6.4 1% of the World's population receives less than 3% of the income Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 14

15 Hunger and Income In scenarios, change average income Gini coefficient hunger line Undernourished Pop. Hunger Line Income

16 Envelope of Plausibility 8 World Economy (1995 = 1) Market Forces 25 Policy Reform 1995 Great Transition Envelope of plausibility in International Equity Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 16

17 Scenario Trajectories Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 17

18 Hunger People Hungry Millions of People Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 18

19 International Equity Ratio of non-oecd to OECD Avg Income. International Equity Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 19

20 Gini Coefficients - MF Gini coefficients in Market Forces scenario Gini coefficient North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 2

21 Gini Coefficients - GT Gini coefficients in Great Transition scenario Gini coefficient North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 21

22 Income Inequality (by Region) Market Forces Great Transition Ratio of Richest 1% to Poorest 1 % of Population Ratio of Richest 1% to Poorest 1 % of Population Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 22

23 Regional Equity Ratio of Richest 1% to Poorest 1 % of Population in GT Scenario Ratio North America Western Europe Latin America Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 23

24 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land-use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 24

25 Energy sources Liquid fuels, Electricity and Heat (including combined heat & power), Hydrogen Fossil Fuels Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy (uranium) Renewables Biofuels (Sugar cane and cellulosic ethanol) Biomass Solar, Wind, Geothermal, etc. Hydro-power Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 25

26 Energy Requirements Exajoules Total End-Use Energy Dem anded Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 26

27 Renewable Energy Total Renew able Energy Produced (incl. biom ass) Exajoules Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 27

28 Crude Oil Demand/Depletion Million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Annual Crude Oil Production Requirem ents 234 MF & FW depletion of resources 247 PR depletion of resources 285 GT depletion of resources Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 28

29 Natural Gas Demand/Depletion Annual Natural Gas Production Requirem ents 1^12 tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) MF & FW depletion of resources Market Forces PR depletion of resources Policy Reform GT depletion of resources Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 29

30 Fossil Fuel Year of Effective Exhaustion MF PR FW GT Crude Oil Natural Gas * * * * Reserves Based on Standard Industry Reserve Assumptions for Conventional Oil and Gas * PR and GT have consumption of fossil fuels for energy production by 21, but some fossil fuels continue to be used as feedstock in non-carbon-emitting processes. Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 3

31 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land Use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 31

32 Policy Reform: CO2 Emissions Constraints Per Capita Emissions (Tonnes Carbon) Data Scenario OECD Non-OECD World Tonnes Carbon Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 32

33 Climate: Annual Emissions Billion Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Global CO2 Em issions Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 33

34 Climate: Cumulative Emissions Cum ulative Carbon Em issions Gigatons Carbon Dioxide (Gt CO2) Approximate CO2 Concentration in 21 (ppm) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 34

35 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land Use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 35

36 Passenger Transport Avg Annual Distance Traveled per Capita (All Modes) passenger-km per capita Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 36

37 Air Travel by Region: Market Forces Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 37

38 Air Travel by Region: Great Transition Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 38

39 Freight Transport Total Freight Activity (All Modes) Trillion ton-km per year Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 39

40 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land Use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 4

41 Diet: Daily Calories/capita 33 Global Average Daily Calorie Requirem ents Calories consumed per day Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 41

42 Diet: Share from Animals Share of Calories coming from Animals & Animal Products Global Average Share of Calories from Animals Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 42

43 Food Requirements Total Food Requirem ents - 21 Million kilotons MF PR GT FW Crop Products Animal Products Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 43

44 Crop Requirements 16 Total Crop Requirem ents Million Kilotons of Crops Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 44

45 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land Use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 45

46 Water Consumed per Person Average Water Consum ed per Person Cubic meters per person Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 46

47 Freshwater Use Total Water Withdraw als 8. Trillion cubic meters Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 47

48 Water Stress People in High Water Stress 3 25 Millions of People Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 48

49 Social Indicators Energy Climate Change Transport Food Water Land Use Selected Results Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 49

50 Land Use Total Forest Area (excluding Plantations) Billion Hectares Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 5

51 Biomass production Biom ass production - 21 Trillion cubic meters of biomass MF PR GT FW Biomass for paper/pulp & lumber Biomass for Fuel Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 51

52 Quality of Development Index (QDI) Comprehensive metric of development, incorporates economic, social, and environmental components Focuses performance on: Well-being Community Environment Scaling methodology: Indicators are renormalized from the original range of values to a scale of between and 1 A weighted average is taken for each sub-index, and again for the final index. (All weights are set equal). Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 52

53 Well-being TELLUS INSTITUTE DECEMBER 2, 29 Quality of Development Index - Components Prosperity 1 1 Performance Performance ln(gdp/capita) 7 13 Time Affluence 3 15 Work Time (hours/capita/year) Social Cohesion Poverty Reduction Community Performance GINI Coefficient Performance 1 Hunger (% of population) 3 Environment Climate Ecosystems 1 1 Performance Performance CO2 Emissions/Capita Four (tonnes Global C) Forest & Protected Area (=1 in 25) Scenarios Tellus Institute

54 Well-being: Time Affluence Average Worktim e per Capita Hours Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 54

55 Community: Poverty Reduction Figure 4: People Hungry Millions of People Market Forces Great Transition Policy Reform Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 55

56 Environment: Habitat (forest area) Habitat Indicator Global Habitat Indicator Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 56

57 Quality of Development (QDI) Figure 1: Global Quality of Developm ent Index QDI Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition Fortress World Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 57

58 Discouraging Visions Global QDI vs Incom e (MF and FW) QDI MF QDI FW QDI Income in GDP per capita (1 $PPP) MF Income FW Income Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 58

59 Discouraging Visions - Global Global Incom e and QDI Index - MF Global Incom e and QDI Index - FW Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 59

60 Discouraging Visions - OECD Income and QDI of OECD - MF Income and QDI of OECD - FW Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 6

61 Discouraging Visions Non-OECD Income and QDI of Non-OECD - MF Income and QDI of Non-OECD - FW Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 61

62 Income and QDI in OECD Market Forces Great Transition Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 62

63 Income of OECD regions Income of Rich 6. Index (25 = 1) MF - OECD GT - OECD Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 63

64 Income and QDI on same scale Income of Rich 5. Index (25 = 1) MF - OECD MF - OECD GT - OECD GT - OECD Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 64

65 Positive Visions - Global Global Incom e and QDI Index - PR Global Incom e and QDI - GT Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 65

66 Positive Visions - OECD Income and QDI of OECD - PR Income and QDI of OECD - GT Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 66

67 Positive Visions Non-OECD Income and QDI of Non-OECD - PR Income and QDI of Non-OECD - GT Index (25 = 1) Index (25 = 1) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 67

68 Contact Information Tellus Institute Address: Tellus Institute 11 Arlington Street Boston, MA , USA Telephone: (617) Fax: (617) Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 68

69 Backup slides Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 69

70 QDI by Region Quality of Development Index Market Forces North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 7

71 QDI by Region Quality of Development Index Policy Reform North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 71

72 QDI by Region Quality of Development Index Great Transition North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 72

73 QDI by Region Quality of Development Index Fortress World North America Western Europe Pac OECD FSU Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East China+ South Asia Southeast Asia Four Global Scenarios Tellus Institute 73