Constrained Nuclear Deployment, Reactor Life Extensions and Implications for Carbon Emissions
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1 Constrained Nuclear Deployment, Reactor Life Extensions and Implications for Carbon Emissions Sonny Kim JGCRI/PNNL GTSP College Park, MD May 25, 11
2 Outline! Recent Modifications to GCAM! Nuclear Scenario (no climate policy)! Inclusion of US Legacy Reactors (all 14)! Current licenses, life extensions to 6, 8 and 1 years, and continuous use of brown field sites.! Impact of nuclear moratorium and unconstrained nuclear deployment! Response to rest of energy system and carbon emissions! Policy Scenario! 45 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration constraint! Impact of nuclear life extension and moratorium on carbon policy! Cost of climate policy with and without new nuclear and CCS! Value of new nuclear deployment for carbon emissions mitigation! Value of legacy reactor life extensions for carbon emissions mitigation! Conclusions! Future Nuclear Technologies 2
3 Recent Modifications to GCAM: Shorter Time Steps from 15 to 5 years! Motivations! More accurate representation of stocks and flows in GCAM! Capital stock vintages: new investments, retirements & retrofits! Annual flows of goods and services! Resource availability, cumulative and annual production! Greater precision in targeting technology and climate change policies! Better representation of technology availability (new and old)! When flexibility and accuracy of policy implementation! Increased frequency of information exchange with integrated assessment models (GCAM) and earth systems models (agricultural & land models, Earth System Models) 3
4 Characterizing Nuclear Energy with 5 Year Time Step! Shorter time step allows improved characterization of nuclear energy scenarios.! Existing nuclear reactors and their lifetimes! Consumption of fuels and production of wastes! New nuclear deployment! Each and all 14 legacy nuclear reactors are modeled to better understand retirement and new deployment impacts.! Previously lumped all legacy reactors into one representation! Targeted technology or regulatory policy possible on specific reactors! Better characterization of climate policy costs with and without nuclear energy.! Better understanding of the value of existing reactors and life extensions for carbon mitigation. 4
5 GCAM - Nuclear Energy System Resources: Fuel Fabrication: Reactors: Interim Storage: Reprocessing: Waste Disposal: 5
6 6 Existing 14 US Nuclear Power Plants
7 7 14 Legacy US Nuclear Reactors (Current License) EJ Nuclear Electricity Generation Arkansas Nuclear-1 Arkansas Nuclear-2 Beaver Valley-1 Beaver Valley-2 Braidwood-1 Braidwood-2 Browns Ferry-1 Brunswick-1 Browns Ferry-2 Brunswick-2 Browns Ferry-3 Byron-1 Byron-2 Callaway-1 Calvert Cliffs-1 Calvert Cliffs-2 Clinton-1 Catawba-1 Columbia-2 Catawba-2 Comanche Peak-1 Comanche Peak-2 Cooper Crystal River-3 Davis Besse-1 Donald Cook-1 Diablo Canyon-1 Donald Cook-2 Diablo Canyon-2 Dresden-2 Dresden-3 Duane Arnold-1 Enrico Fermi-2 Farley-1 Fort Calhoun-1 Farley-2 Grand Gulf-1 Fitzpatrick H.B. Robinson-2 Hatch-1 Hatch-2 Hope Creek-1 Indian Point-2 LaSalle-1 Indian Point-3 LaSalle-2 Kewaunee Limerick-1 Limerick-2 McGuire-1 McGuire-2 Millstone-2 Nine Mile Point-1 Millstone-3 Nine Mile Point-2 Monticello North Anna-1 North Anna-2 Oconee-1 Oconee-2 Oconee-3 Palo Verde-1 Oyster Creek Palo Verde-2 Palisades Palo Verde-3 Peach Bottom-2 Peach Bottom-3 Perry-1 Pilgrim-1 Prairie Island-1 Point Beach-1 Prairie Island-2 Point Beach-2 Quad Cities-1 Quad Cities-2 R.E. Ginna River Bend-1 Salem-1 San Onofre-3 Salem-2 Seabrook-1 San Onofre-2 Sequoyah-1 Sequoyah-2 Shearon Harris-1 South Texas-1 South Texas-2 Surry-1 St. Lucie-1 Surry-2 St. Lucie-2 Susquehanna-1 Susquehanna-2 Three Mile Island-1 Turkey Point-3 Turkey Point-4 Vermont Yankee Virgil C. Summer- 1 Vogtle-1 Vogtle-2 Waterford-3 Watts Bar-1 Wolf Creek Current License: 42 reactors with 4 year license 62 reactors with 6 year license 35 BWRs, 69 PWRs
8 Nuclear Reference Scenarios No Climate Policy Legacy Nuclear Life Extension Technology No New Nuclear Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous New Nuclear Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous Base: current license, 4 or 6 years 8
9 US Electricity Generation 35 Legacy Legacy Legacy Base Continuous Yrs Base Yrs + + Nuclear + New Moratorium Nuclear EJ wind solar rooftop_pv refined liquids oil nuclear hydrogen hydro grid_storage geothermal gas coal biomass
10 US Nuclear Electricity Share No Climate Policy 3% Legacy Base + Moratorium Legacy 8yrs + Moratorium Legacy Continuous + Moratorium Legacy 6yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 1yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 6yrs + Moratorium Legacy 1yrs + Moratorium Legacy Base + New Nuclear Legacy 8yrs + New Nuclear Legacy Continuous + New Nuclear 25% % Share 15% 1% 5% %
11 US Nuclear Power Capacity Legacy and Total No Climate Policy GWe Base + No New Nuclear 6 yrs + No New Nuclear 8 yrs + No New Nuclear 1 yrs + No New Nuclear Continuous + No New Nuclear Base + New Nuclear 6 yrs + New Nuclear 8 yrs + New Nuclear 1 yrs + New Nuclear Continuous + New Nuclear Nuclear Power Capacity (9% CF) today ~45 years ~65 years for 2x capacity 11
12 Life Extension Impact on New Nuclear Deployment (Per 5 Years) - No Climate Policy New Nuclear (Legacy Base) New Nuclear (Legacy 6yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 8yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 1yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy Continuous) New Nuclear Builds (Per Period) 12 GWe / period
13 US CO2 Emissions: Electric Power and Total Economy (No Climate Policy) Million Tonnes of Carbon 13 1,4 1,3 1, 1,1 1, Legacy Base + New Moratorium Legacy 6yrs + New Moratorium Legacy 8yrs + New Moratorium Legacy 1yrs + New Moratorium Legacy Continuous + New Moratorium Legacy Base + New Nuclear Legacy 6yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 8yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 1yrs + New Nuclear Legacy Continuous + New Nuclear Electricity Electricity largely responsible for growth in total emissions. +5% Million Tonnes of Carbon What s the additional cost of climate mitigation without nuclear deployment? 2,4 2, 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1, 1, Nuclear Moratorium Legacy Base Legacy 6yrs Legacy 8yrs Legacy 1yrs Legacy Continuous Total Economy
14 Global Climate Policy 45 ppm Atmospheric CO 2 Stabilization
15 Billion Tonnes of Carbon Ref (no policy) 45 ppm Global Carbon Policy 45 ppm Atmospheric CO2 Stabilization Global CO2 Emissions CO2 Emission Coefficient: Coal = 27.3 kg C/GJ Oil = 19.6 kg C/GJ N. Gas = 14.2 kg C/GJ $/tc carbon tax =.26 $/gal of gasoline PPM 1 $ / tc Ref Atmospheric CO2 Concentration 45 ppm Global Carbon Tax for 45 ppm
16 Technology Cases 45 ppm Scenario Legacy Nuclear Life Extension Technology New Nuclear Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous with CCS No New Nuclear with CCS New Nuclear without CCS No New Nuclear without CCS Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous 16
17 US Primary Energy Consumption 45 ppm Scenario 14 New Nuclear & CCS 14 No Nuclear & CCS EJ geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil New Nuclear & No CCS EJ geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil No Nuclear & No CCS EJ geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil EJ geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil
18 US Electricity Generation 45 ppm Scenario 6yrs 8yrs No No CCS Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Continuous Continuous Continuous 1yrs 1yrs 6yrs 8yrs Base Base 1yrs 6yrs 8yrs Base No + No New +New No + No + No Nuclear Nuclear New No Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear +++ No +No +CCS +CCS +CCS No CCS +CCS CCS CCS CCS CCS EJ Rooftop Rooftop PV PV Battery Battery Battery Solar Solar CHP CHP CHP Wind Wind Wind Hydro Hydro Geothermal Geothermal Geothermal Nuclear Nuclear Gen III Nuclear Gen Gen III III Nuclear Legacy Nuclear Legacy Biomass Biomass w/ccs Biomass w/ccs w/ccs Biomass Biomass Oil Oil w/ccs w/ccs Oil Oil Oil Gas Gas w/ccs Gas w/ccs w/ccs Gas Gas Coal Coal w/ccs Coal w/ccs w/ccs Coal Coal
19 US Nuclear Share of Total Electricity 45 ppm Scenario Nuclear Electricity Share 45 ppm Scenario 6% 5% New Nuclear & No CCS 19 Share 4% 3% % 1% % New Nuclear & CCS No New Nuclear & No CCS No New Nuclear & CCS
20 US Nuclear Power Capacity Legacy and Total - 45 ppm Scenario GWe Base 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yrs Continuous Base + New Nuclear + CCS 6 yrs + New Nuclear + CCS 8 yrs + New Nuclear + CCS 1 yrs + New Nuclear + CCS Continuous + New Nuclear + CCS Base + New Nuclear + No CCS 6 yrs + New Nuclear + No CCS 8 yrs + New Nuclear + No CCS 1 yrs + New Nuclear + No CCS Continuous + New Nuclear + No CCS Nuclear Power Capacity (9% CF) No CCS CCS today 25 ~25 years ~32 years for 2x capacity No New Nuclear
21 US New Nuclear Builds Per 5 Year Period 45 ppm Scenario (9% CF) Reference Scenario 45 ppm Scenario (with Nuclear & CCS) GWe / period New Nuclear (Legacy Base) New Nuclear (Legacy 6yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 8yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 1yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy Continuous) New Nuclear Builds (Per Period) GWe / period New Nuclear Builds (Per Period) 45 ppm Scenario New Nuclear (Legacy Base) New Nuclear (Legacy 6yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 8yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy 1yrs) New Nuclear (Legacy Continuous) : Bulk of new nuclear deployment
22 1, Tonnes 22 US Cumulative Used/Spent Fuel Production 45 ppm Scenario (Total Legacy and New Builds) Once-Through Fuel Cycle Used Fuel Production (Cumulative) 45 ppm Scenario Yucca Mtn (Legislated Capacity) Legacy Base + Moratorium Legacy 6yrs + Moratorium Legacy 8yrs + Moratorium Legacy 1yrs + Moratorium Legacy Continuous + Moratorium Legacy Base + New Nuclear Legacy 6yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 8yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 1yrs + New Nuclear Legacy Continuous + New Nuclear Yucca Mtn: 7 Thou Tons Greater use of nuclear power for climate mitigation requires resolution on nuclear waste disposal and/or technologies for waste reduction.
23 Million Tonnes of Carbon 23 US Cost of CO2 Emissions Mitigation Global CO2 Emissions 45 ppm Scenario 25 2,4 2, 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1, 1, Nuclear Moratorium Legacy Base Legacy 6yrs Legacy 8yrs Legacy 1yrs Legacy Continuous 45 ppm Constraint US CO2 Emissions Constraint Billion 1US$ Billion Tonnes of Carbon ,25 1, 1,15 1,1 1,5 1, Nuclear Moratorium Ref (nuclear moratorium) Ref (new nuclear deployment) 45 ppm Legacy Base Total Discounted Cost (5%/yr) Legacy 6yrs Legacy 8yrs Legacy 1yrs Legacy Continuous
24 25 Cost of 45 ppm Scenarios Global Total Discounted Cost (5%/yr) Cost comparison with existing licenses for legacy nuclear (Base). Trillion 1 US$ 15 1 Nuclear Value (no CCS): 7.1 tril $ Nuclear Value (w/ CCS): 1.4 tril $ Global Nuclear Value: 7.1 Tril $ (without CCS) 1.4 Tril $ (with CCS) 5 No New Nuc & No CCS New Nuc & No CCS No New Nuc & CCS New Nuc & CCS 2,5 US Total Discounted Cost (5%/yr) US Nuclear Value: 73 Bil $ (without CCS) 173 Bil $ (with CCS) Billion 1 US$ 2, 1,5 1, Nuclear Value (no CCS): 73 bil $ Nuclear Value (w/ CCS): 173 bil $ 24 5 No New Nuc & No CCS New Nuc & No CCS No New Nuc & CCS New Nuc & CCS
25 Billion 1US$ 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1, 1,1 1, Value of US Nuclear Reactor Life Extensions for CO2 Emissions Mitigation - 45 ppm Scenario Legacy Base Total Discounted Cost (5%/yr) Legacy 6yrs Legacy 8yrs Legacy 1yrs Legacy Continuous 3 25 Value of Legacy Nuclear Life Extension New Nuclear & CCS 2. No New Nuclear & CCS 3. New Nuclear & No CCS 4. No New Nuclear & No CCS 25 Billion 1US$ yrs yrs 1 yrs Cont No New Nuc & No CCS New Nuc & No CCS No New Nuc & CCS New Nuc & CCS
26 26 Conclusions! Shorter time-step capability of GCAM allows more detailed analysis of technology policies.! US nuclear electricity share will inevitably drop in the near-term.! Life extension decisions on legacy US reactors have significant implications for new nuclear deployment.! Life extension of legacy reactors reduces near-term investments in new reactors, while contributing to higher total nuclear power generation.! Life extension and new nuclear deployment decisions can affect total US electric power CO2 emissions by 5% in a reference scenario without climate policy.! The nuclear energy option has a tremendous impact on the cost of mitigating climate change! Global cost of meeting 45 ppm CO2 concentration is on the order of 1 23 trillion US$ depending on the technology options available.! Global nuclear moratorium raises the global cost by ~ 1.5 (w/ CCS) 7 trillion (w/o CCS)US$.! US cost of meeting 45 ppm CO2 concentration is on the order of ~ trillion US$.! US nuclear moratorium raises the US cost by ~ 17 (w/ CCS) 73 (w/o CCS) billion US$.! Cost difference represents the potential value of US and global nuclear power.! New nuclear deployment as a response to climate policy may not be uniform in time.! Bulk of new deployment occurs in 3-5 in the 45 ppm scenario.! Expanded nuclear deployment implies resolution on nuclear waste management.! Decisions on life extensions of existing nuclear reactors have significant impact on US climate mitigation costs regardless of decision on new nuclear deployment.! The value of life extensions of existing reactors for mitigating climate change is 4 26 billion US$ (gross).! Few carbon-free technology options implies greater value of life extensions on existing reactors.
27 Future Nuclear Technologies Safety! Examples of reactors with passive safety features (near commercial status)! US NuScale (small modular reactor water cooled)! China HTR-PM (high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed module)! Korea SMART (system integrated modular advanced reactor) 27
28 28 Future Nuclear Technologies Waste Minimization
29 Future Nuclear Technologies Non-Proliferation DOE NE Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) Comparison Report, FY3 29
30 EJ Global Primary Energy Consumption 45 ppm Scenario 1,4 1, 1, 8 6 New Nuclear and CCS traditional biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil EJ 1,4 1, 1, 8 6 No Nuclear with CCS traditional biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil EJ 3 4 1,4 1, 1, New Nuclear & No CCS traditional biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil EJ 4 1,4 1, 1, traditional biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil No Nuclear & No CCS
31 US Cumulative Used/Spent Fuel Production No Climate Policy (Total Legacy and New Builds) 45 Yucca Mtn (Legislated Capacity) 31 1, Tonnes Legacy Base + New Moratorium Legacy 6yrs + New Moratorium Legacy 8yrs + New Moratorium Legacy 1yrs + New Moratorium Legacy Continuous + New Moratorium Legacy Base + New Nuclear Legacy 6yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 8yrs + New Nuclear Legacy 1yrs + New Nuclear Legacy Continuous + New Nuclear Yucca Mtn: 7 Thou Tons 95
32 The GCAM Model Regional Resource Bases Regional Energy Conversion Technologies Energy Demand Technologies Energy Supply Coal, Gas, Oil Renewables Electricity Hydrogen Energy Demand Transportation Buildings Industry The Energy System Energy Markets Fossil fuel prices Electricity prices Hydrogen prices Energy System Emissions Climate Regional Labor Force Regional Labor Productivity Economy Regional GDP Technologies/ Farm Regional Land Characteristics Agricultural Demand Crops Livestock Forest Products Agricultural Supply Crops Livestock Forest Products Bioenergy Commercial Biomass Agricultural Markets Crops prices Livestock prices Forest Product prices Bioenergy prices Land Use & Land Cover Agriculture & Land Use Agriculture & Land Related Emissions Climate Concentrations Radiative Forcing Global Mean Temperature Rise Sea Level Rise 32
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