Energy Geopolitics. Michael J. Economides. Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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1 Energy Geopolitics Michael J. Economides 2009 Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
2 The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40 headlines rule crisis OPEC has little excess capacity behind the valve, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production China still grows in economy and energy Saudi Arabia world regulator Less than $40 to $100 by end 2009 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
3 Natural Gas International demand destruction is larger than was anticipated Because of LNG developments in Qatar, Egypt and Sakhalin 2, there could be 10 Bcf/d excess supply. Considerable impact on gas prices in Europe and the United States Cheniere LNG $4 gas for two to three years? Devastating impact on US shale gas Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
4 Crude Oil Price, USD US Oil Consumption, MMbpd Oil Demand and Price
5 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
6 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
7 Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE Growth Rate , % 60 Growth Rate , % Other Coal Gas Oil Wind & Solar Biomass, MSW Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar
8 Obama Energy Radicalism Even the most radical environmentalists would be more circumspect 10 years ago EPA (April 17, 2009) greenhouse gases in the atmosphere endanger the public health of current and future generations. Secretary Chu (April 4, 2009) advanced biofuels, conservation, white roofs. Secretary Salazar (April 6, 2009) wind farms could replace 3,000 coal-fired plants. Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
9 What Congress and the President need is a Calculator Cardinal mine in Kentucky (35 th -largest in the U.S., producing about 15,350 tons of coal per day, 66,000 barrels of oil equivalent All solar panels and wind mills 76,000 barrels of oil equivalent The US total energy use 47,400,000 barrels of oil equivalent Solar and wind 0.2 to 0.4%» (Robert Bryce, 2009) Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
10 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
11 Let me make a prediction First do not choke on the daringness By the end of Pres. Obama s first term The US will use more oil It will import a larger percentage Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
12 Quadrillion BTU National Transportation Energy Perspective Other Conventional Hydroelectric Power Nuclear Power Coal Natural Gas Imported Oil Oil Transportation Oil Products Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES Imported Oil Biofuels
13 The New Energy Economy Wood (1800s) Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydrogen (envisioned) Carbon content: High Medium Low (Zero) Increasingly: Clean Energy intensive Technologically sophisticated Distributed
14 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES ````````
15 Golfing for Hydrogen
16 Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?
17
18 The Ethanol Scam Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
19 Wind Power Exposed: Expensive, Unreliable and Won t Save Natural Gas UK Ofgem: wind grossly distorting the market 29.7% of cost for 1.3% of electric supply Load factor: 27.4%. Gas demand goes up Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
20 There are no alternatives to hydrocarbon energy sources in the foreseeable future
21 What Climate Change? Three points: Highly politicized. What to do about it? Can anything be done? At what cost? Confusion (at times deliberate) between global warming and man-made effects Preposterous: science all in. My offer: $10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper showing causality between CO 2 and increased temperature. None exists Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
22 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
23 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
24 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
25 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
26 Energy Geopolitics The Axis of Energy Militants Iran Venezuela Russia under Putin The quagmire that is Iraq China
27 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
28 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
29 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
30 Russia under Putin Bright spot in oil is gone Re-Sovietization Corruption Total control of press Investment climate has cooled down Production is bound to decline
31 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
32 Gazprom s New Imperium Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
33
34 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
35 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
36 Georgia War Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
37 Can China Keep the Lights On? Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
38 Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
39 Energy: China s Choke Point Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
40 China and Russia Energy will be China s choke point Has become recently very assertive, if not belligerent. Sudan, Nigeria Canada Venezuela China s energy future passes through Russia. Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
41 Russia and China Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
42 Russia, China and Japan Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
43 China will probably lead Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
44 Another view of oil prices Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics. Michael J. Economides. Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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