Big Data at BBVA Research DEIA Encuentros Digitales. Bilbao
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1 Tracking geopolitical & social events with Big Data at BBVA Research DEIA Encuentros Digitales. Bilbao Tomasa Rodrigo Cross- Country emerging markets unit September 2015
2 What is Big Data? Velocity Volume Variety 2
3 Why it is important? Big data is key to research Geopolitical Analysis GDELT + SQL + R + our analysis Business Analysis BBVA databases + our analysis Sectorial Analysis Google searches + our analysis 3
4 A changing geopolitical landscape: from politics to geopolitics The global economy s centre of gravity is moving to the East (Regional contribution to world growth in the next ten years, %GDP) Source: BBVA Research, IMF and Quah (2011) 4
5 Why is geostrategic analysis so important? Geopolitical risks are highly interconnected Source: The Global Risk Report, WEO
6 GDELT database: definition and examples GDELT geo-referenced events from 1979-today Language CAMEO,World Bank s taxonomy Algorithm Dyadic Relations, Tabari, Petracht Software SQL, BigQuery, R, Python 6
7 The global awakening will introduce new challenges World Protest Intensity Index (Number of protests in the world/ Total events in the world) World Conflict Intensity Index (Number of conflicts in the world/ Total events in the world) 7
8 A problematic framework: Europe s ring of fire BBVA Conflict Heatmap (4Q14 to Sep-15) (Number of conflicts / Total events) Ukraine-Russia still uncertain Potential Problems in Balkans- Caucasus ISIS pressure in failed states ISIS Iraq-Syria-Kurdistan The Iran Nuclear deal and The proxy war in Yemen 8
9 N. Africa & Middle East EM Europe & CIS Protest Intensity Map BBVA Research World Protest Intensity Map Jan 2011 Sep 2015 (Number of protests / Total events. Dark Blue: High Intensity) Poland Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Croatia Turkey Russia Ukraine Georgia Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan Armenia Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Israel Jordan Syria Iraq Iran UAE Yemen Bahrain Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Protest Intensity: Low High 9
10 Ukraine-Russian Conflict: escalation with potential spill-overs to other countries The situation in Ukraine and the Caucasus: Conflict Index (4Q14 to Sep 15) (Cumulative Number of Conflicts) 10
11 With second derivatives Russian economic sanctions network Trade Implications with Central Asia Financial Relation to offshores interrupted Trade Implications with Eastern Europe Investment interests impinged in Central Europe 11
12 The South: uncertain dynamics with multiple players The situation of ISIS in Syria & Iraq (4Q14 to Sep-15) (Accumulated conflicts from ISIS) 12
13 Yemen: a new scenario for a proxy war Conflict activity in Yemen (Jan 14 - Sep15) (Cumulative Number of Conflicts) Hadi Goverment Forces Al Houtis (Saleh ) Iran New Arab Force financers S.Arabia Qatar UAE Kuwait Manpower Egypt Jordan Morocco Sudan 13
14 security problems in Europe as ISIS will increase pressure in failed states BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map (Jan 14 to Sep 15) (Number of media citations about refugees inflows and outflows) Inflows Outflows 14
15 China: concerns and contagion BBVA Research World sentiment about China s slowdown (Media coverage about concerns of China s slowdown around the world) Very Low Very High 15
16 B. Obama (US) S. Harper (CAN) S. Abe (JPN) D. Cameron (UK) A.Merkel (GER) F.Hollande (FRA) M. Renzi (ITA) Rajoy (SPN) T. Erdogan (TUR) A. Davutoğlu (TUR) B. Al-Assad (SYR) King Abdullah (JOR) B. Netanyahu (ISR) Al-Sisi (EGY) H. Al-Abadi (IRQ) A. Khamenei (IRN) Rouhani (IRN) King Salman (SAU) Al Maktoum (UAE) S. Al Khalifa (BHR) K. Al Thani (QAT) World leaders scorecard World Leader Tone index (Evolution from Jun 2014 to Jul 2015) (Evolution of the Tone of world leaders) 4 3 Above 2 Normal Normal -2 Range -3-4 Below -5-6 Normal * We use the "tone" of the world's news media coverage of the leaders as a sort of popularity index that might give us insights into their respective futures. it's closer to an assessment of his strength as a leader. (higher numbers indicate more positive tone, while negative numbers indicate more negative tone). 16
17 Geostrategic scenarios potential impact World conflicts: direct income and population (% of PPP GDP and population) 17
18 BBVA Research geostrategic tools and products Geo Strategic Reports to quantify geopolitical trends and to analyse main hotspots: Geo World Report with monthly updates (Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest May Update) Geo Mena Report Global Hot topics to track the current situation and main geopolitical events: The Refugee Crisis: Challenges for Europe The Iran deal: a positive step in the centrifuge-oil balance Working papers to model social unrest dynamics, social behaviour and state response in different regions: An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in Eurasian Countries An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in MENA Countries (in progress) Confidential notes and reports
19 Thank you!
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