Supplementary Appendix for. Version: February 3, 2014

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1 Supplementary Appendix for When Do Governments Resort to Election Violence? Version: February 3, 2014 This appendix provides supplementary information not included in the published draft. Supplementary Figure 1 shows the simulated predictions from the robustness checks included in Tables 2 and 3 of the published draft. Supplementary Figure 2 show estimates of the effect of Victory Uncertain and Polling Unfavorable on Pre- Election violence for each type of election. These estimates are different from those shown in the published draft, which are instead limited to elections in which the office of the incumbent is contested, regardless of whether an election is Parliamentary or Presidential. Supplementary Tables 2 and 3 show the estimates used to make Supplementary Figure 2. The final table is a list of countries included in the sample, along with summary information on the number of violent elections.

2 Supplementary Figure 1: Effect of Electoral Uncertainty on Pre- Election Violence Robustness Checks Shows the simulated effect of electoral uncertainty (a change from 0 to 1) on the probability of Pre- Election Violence for each value of Executive Constraints. Vertical lines indicate the 95% confidence interval.

3 Supplementary Figure 2: The Effect of Electoral Uncertainty on Pre- Election Violence by Election Type Shows the simulated effect of electoral uncertainty (a change from 0 to 1) on the probability of Pre- Election Violence for each value of Executive Constraints by type of election. Vertical lines indicate the 95% confidence interval. Estimated using a logit model with country random effects and controls for Physical Integrity (avg), Political Competitiveness (avg), Executive Recruitment (avg), Population (log), GDP (log), Leader Tenure, Leader Age, Civil War, Electoral Fraud and Demonstrations. The coefficient estimates for these figures are shown in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2.

4 Supplementary Table 1: Logit Estimates of the Effect of Unfavorable Polls on Pre- Election Violence by Election Type (1) All (2) Presidential (3) Legislative Unfavorable Polls 1.70** 3.27* Polling * Exec. Const ** * Executive Constraints Physical Integrity (avg) ** ** ** Political Competitiveness (avg) Executive Recruitment (avg) Population (log) 0.63** ** GDP (log) ** ** Leader Tenure Leader Age Civil War 0.42** Electoral Fraud 1.53** 1.52** 1.38** Demonstrations 0.09* * Observations 1, Log Likelihood significant at 10%; *significant at 5%; **significant at 1%. Standard errors are in parentheses. Model 1 includes all elections, regardless of type. Model 2 contains only presidential elections. Model 3 contains only legislative elections (including Parliamentary elections).

5 Supplementary Table 2: Logit Estimates of the Effect of Victory Uncertain on Pre- Election Violence by Election Type (1) All (2) Presidential (3) Legislative Victory Uncertain * Uncertain * Exec. Const Executive Constraints Physical Integrity (avg) ** ** ** Political Competitiveness (avg) Executive Recruitment (avg) Population (log) 0.54* ** GDP (log) * ** Leader Tenure Leader Age Civil War 0.36* Electoral Fraud 1.50** 1.42** 1.28** Demonstrations 0.07* Observations 1, Log Likelihood significant at 10%; *significant at 5%; **significant at 1%. Standard errors are in parentheses. Model 1 includes all elections, regardless of type. Model 2 contains all presidential elections. Model 3 contains legislative elections.

6 List of Countries in the Sample Country Number of Cases of Pre- Election Violence Cases of Protest Cases of Post- Election Violence AFGHANISTAN ALBANIA ALGERIA ANGOLA ARGENTINA ARMENIA AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA AZERBAIJAN BAHRAIN BANGLADESH BELARUS BELGIUM BENIN BHUTAN BOLIVIA BOSNIA- HERZEGOVINA BOTSWANA BRAZIL BULGARIA BURKINA FASO BURUNDI CAMBODIA CAMEROON CANADA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CHAD CHILE COLOMBIA COMORO ISLAND COSTA RICA CROATIA CUBA CYPRUS CZECH REPUBLIC DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DENMARK

7 DJIBOUTI DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST GERMANY EAST TIMOR ECUADOR EGYPT EL SALVADOR EQUATORIAL GUINEA ESTONIA ETHIOPIA FIJI FINLAND FRANCE GABON GAMBIA GEORGIA GERMANY GHANA GREECE GUATEMALA GUINEA GUINEA BISSAU GUYANA HAITI HONDURAS HUNGARY INDIA INDONESIA IRAN IRAQ IRELAND ISRAEL ITALY IVORY COAST JAMAICA JAPAN JORDAN KAZAKHSTAN KENYA KUWAIT KYRGYZSTAN LAOS LATVIA

8 LEBANON LESOTHO LIBERIA LITHUANIA MACEDONIA MADAGASCAR MALAWI MALAYSIA MALI MAURITANIA MAURITIUS MEXICO MOLDOVA MONGOLIA MONTENEGRO MOROCCO MOZAMBIQUE MYANMAR NAMIBIA NEPAL NETHERLANDS NEW ZEALAND NICARAGUA NIGER NIGERIA NORTH KOREA NORWAY OMAN PAKISTAN PANAMA PAPUA NEW GUINEA PARAGUAY PERU PHILIPPINES POLAND PORTUGAL REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO ROMANIA RUSSIA RWANDA SENEGAL SIERRA LEONE SINGAPORE

9 SLOVAKIA SLOVENIA SOMALIA SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH YEMEN SPAIN SRI LANKA SUDAN SWAZILAND SWEDEN SWITZERLAND SYRIA TAIWAN TAJIKISTAN TANZANIA THAILAND TOGO TRINIDAD AND TOBEGO TUNISIA TURKEY TURKMENISTAN UGANDA UKRAINE UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES URUGUAY UZBEKISTAN VENEZUELA VIETNAM YEMEN YUGOSLAVIA ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE

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