Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

Transcription

1 Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt Annexes to the final Interim Technical Report Client: European Commission - DG TRADE Rotterdam, 30 June 2014

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3 Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt Annexes to the final Interim Technical Report Client: European Commission - DG TRADE Rotterdam, 30 June 2014

4 About Ecorys At Ecorys we aim to deliver real benefit to society through the work we do. We offer research, consultancy and project management, specialising in economic, social and spatial development. Focusing on complex market, policy and management issues we provide our clients in the public, private and not-for-profit sectors worldwide with a unique perspective and high-value solutions. Ecorys remarkable history spans more than 80 years. Our expertise covers economy and competitiveness; regions, cities and real estate; energy and water; transport and mobility; social policy, education, health and governance. We value our independence, integrity and partnerships. Our staff comprises dedicated experts from academia and consultancy, who share best practices both within our company and with our partners internationally. Ecorys Netherlands has an active CSR policy and is ISO14001 certified (the international standard for environmental management systems). Our sustainability goals translate into our company policy and practical measures for people, planet and profit, such as using a 100% green electricity tariff, purchasing carbon offsets for all our flights, incentivising staff to use public transport and printing on FSC or PEFC certified paper. Our actions have reduced our carbon footprint by an estimated 80% since ECORYS Nederland BV Watermanweg GG Rotterdam P.O. Box AD Rotterdam The Netherlands T +31 (0) F +31 (0) E netherlands@ecorys.com Registration no W 2 NL

5 Table of contents Annex B: CGE Tables 5 Annex C: Stakeholder input 39 Summary of the local workshop in Cairo 45 Annex D: Quantitative environmental analysis 59 Changes in the environmental quality 59 Welfare impacts of air pollution 60 Data 61 Climate change externalities 62 Definition of sectors 63 Annex E: CGE scenarios 69 Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 3

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7 Annex B: CGE Tables The tables below present the full results from the CGE modelling on both aggregate and sector level. Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 5

8 TableB.1 National Income, million euros short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World TableB.2 Equivalent variation, % short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

9 TableB.3 GDP, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World TableB.4 Exports, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 7

10 TableB.5 Imports, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World TableB.6 Terms of trade, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

11 TableB.7 Consumer price, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World TableB.8 Low skilled wages, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 9

12 TableB.9 Medium skilled wages, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World TableB.10 High skilled wages, % change short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total European Union Egypt Jordan Morocco and Tunisia Rest of North Africa Turkey Golf cooperation council Rest of Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of World Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

13 TableB.11 % change in bilateral exports short run long run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Egypt's exports to EU EU's exports to Egypt TableB.12 Employment change, low skilled, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 11

14 Short run Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement TableB.13 Employment change, medium skilled, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

15 Short run Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 13

16 TableB.14 Employment change, high skilled, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

17 Short run Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement TableB.15 Employment change, low skilled, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 15

18 Short run Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement TableB.16 Employment change, medium skilled, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

19 Short run Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 17

20 TableB.17 Employment change, high skilled, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

21 Short run Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services % displacement TableB.18 Output change, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 19

22 Short run Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services TableB.19 Exports change, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

23 Short run Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 21

24 TableB.20 Imports change, EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

25 Short run Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services TableB.21 Output change, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 23

26 Short run Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services TableB.22 Exports change, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

27 Short run Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 25

28 TableB.23 Imports change, Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

29 Short run Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services TableB.24 Change in Egypt's exports to the EU Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 27

30 Short run Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services TableB.25 Change in EU's exports to Egypt Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt

31 Short run Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Water transport Air transport Communications Finance and insurance Business and ICT Personal and recreational services Public and other services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt 29

32 TableB.26 Change in Egypt's value added Short run Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Tariffs Goods NTMs Services NTMs Spillovers Total Grains and crops Vegetables, fruit & nuts Other agriculture and forestry products Fish products Mining Livestock and Meat Products Vegetable oils and fats Other processed food Beverages and tobacco Textiles Wearing apparel Leather products Wood, paper, publishing Petro-chemicals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Ceramics, cement, etc Primary metals Fabricated metals Motor vehicles Electronics, computers Other machinery and equipment Other manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade Other transport services Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Egypt