, kw, kw 3176%,, JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES Aug., , : F42612 : A : (2009)

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1 24 8 Vol124 No JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES Aug., , 2, 13 (11, ; 21, ) : ,,,, 2006 GDP , 3,,,,, 4 : : ; ; ; : F42612 : A: (2009) , 2070,,,, [ 1 ],, (WMO), MW, MW, 101% [ 2 ] 2005, 66, kw, % [ 3 ],, kw, kw, [ 4 ] 10 40%,, 2006, 91, 16 ( ), 3 311, kw, kw 3176%,,,,,, : ; : : (973)(2007CB210306) : (1981- ),,,, 3 : (1966- ),,,,,E2mail: fangcl@ igsnrr. ac. cn

2 8 : 1413,, [ 5 7 ] [ 8, 9 ] [ 10, 11 ] [ 12, 13 ],,, ;( ),,, [ 6 ] (1991 ), 900,10 m, kw ; kw,, ( kw ), 2030,, [ 14 ],10 m : 6 m / s, 7 m / s, 8 m / s 6 m / s,,,,,,,,, [ 14 ],1 [ 7 ], , 107, 3 477, kw, 17( ),, 23141%, ( ) ; ,1 510, kw, 21 ( ) ; , 3 585, kw, 25( ) ( ) 327, 8 500, kw [ 15 ] 1 212,,,,,, ( )( GDP),, ( ) (, ) GDP, : y = A + ax 1 + bx 2 + cx 3 + dx 4 (1)

3 Fig11 The distribution of wind power resources and wind power p lants in China : y GDP; x 1 ; x 2 ; x 3 ; x 4 10,, xy,, x n ( n = ) y n ( n = ), GDP, 1 h, 1 h ( 1),, 1 Table 1 The reference coefficient of raw coal, crude oil and power converted to standard coal equivalent 1 t t t kw h : http: www. ydjjxx. gov. cn /more1. asp? id = 11734, 1 h,, GDP,,

4 8 : , t t t kw h2 2 2 Table 2 The estimated value generated by wind power resources per hour GDP GDP GDP /10 8 /10 8 /10 8 y = x x x x y = x x x x ( ) y = x x x x y = x x x y = x x x x ( y = x x x x 4 ) y = x x x x ( y = x x x x 4 ) y = x x x x y = x x x y = x x x y = x x x x y = x x x y = x x x x y = x x x y = x x x y = x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x y = x x x x :,,

5 GDP Fig12 The GDP equivalent output distribution of wind power resources per hour in China,, , , , 2006 GDP ,,,,,,,, kw h, 600 t CO 2 3,,,,, %, 53135%, 28515% [ 16 ],,,,,,,,,,

6 8 : ,( ),,,,3 :,,,, ;,;,,,, ;,, GDP, 3 Table 3 The index system of development stage regional division of wind power resources GDP F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11, (4),,,, %, 11 4 Table 4 The correlation coefficient between the indices F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F F F F F F F F F F F ,, ( ),SPSS1310

7 , 100%, 1, ( 0),,, : y = af ( t) (2) : y, a, t,, t ; t; a,,,, y 5 Table 5 The general scores of the p rincipal components Fig13 The sketch map of wind power resources development and utilization phase, (2), 4,3 4 : (1) ( t 3 t 4 ) :,, ( ): ( ),,,,,,,,

8 8 : Fig14 The development stage regional division of wind power resources in China (2) ( t 2 t 3 ) :,,( ): ( ),,,,, (3) ( t 1 t 2 ) :, ( ): ( ),,,, (4) (0 t 1 ) :, ( ):,,,, 4 ( ) ,

9 ,, , , , 2006 GDP ,, 3,,,, 4 :,,, ( References) : [ 1 ]. [M ]. :, [ China Rural Technology Development Center. W ind Power U tilization Technology. Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, ] [ 2 ],. [ J ]., 2006, 58 ( 2) : [ GUO Tai2ying, L I Fa2gui. D iscussion of ideas of China s wind power development referring foreign countries wind power development. Hydropower Survey and D esign, 2006, 58 (2) : ] [ 3 ] Record year for wind energy: Global wind power market increased by 43% in 2005, GlobalW ind Energy Council( GW EC) [ EB /OL ]. http: www. gwec. net/up loads/media /Statistics pdf [ 4 ],. [ J ]., 2006, (7) : [L I Tian2hua, L I Cheng2xiao. On the insp iration from India s experiences of develop ing wind power industry. Ecological Econom ic, 2006, (7) : ] [ 5 ] Gustavson M R. L im its to wind power utilization [ J ]. Science, 1979, 204: [ 6 ],,. [ J ]., 2001, 22 (2) : [ XUE Heng, ZHU Rui2zhao, et al. A ssessment of wind energy reserves in China. Acta Energiae Solaris S inica, 2001, 22 (2) : ] [ 7 ] [ EB /OL ]. http: www. nwtc. cn /A rticle /ShowA rticle. asp? A rticleid = [ SH I Peng2fei. Installed capacity of wind farm statistics in China until http: www. nwtc. cn /A rticle /ShowA rticle. asp? A rticle ID = ] [ 8 ],,,. [ J ]., 2005, 20 ( 5) : [MAO Hui2qin, SONG L i2li, HUANG Hao2hui, et al. Study on the wind energy resource division in Guangdong Province. Journal of N atu2 ral Resources, 2005, 20 (5) : ] [ 9 ],. [ J ]., 2007, 22 ( 4) : [ ZHANG W en2 jia, ZHANG Yong2zhan. Studies on characteristics of the spatial2temporal distribution and developmet trend for wind farm s in China. Journal of N atural R esources, 2007, 22 (4) : ] [ 10 ],. [ J ]., 2005, 6 ( 10) : [ SH I Peng2fei, X IE Hong2fei. Suggestions about the grid p ricing mechanism for wind power. Electrical Equipm ent, 2005, 6 (10) : ] [ 11 ]. [ J ]., 2007, (1) : [ CH I Zhao2wei. The impact on ex2 isting taxation policies to on wind power grid price. Shanghai Electricity, 2007, (1) : ] [ 12 ],,,. [ J ]., 2003, 36 (4) : [ SUN Tao, ZHAO Hai2 xiang, SHEN Hong, et al. Structure and analysis of wind power farm capital investment in China. Electric Power, 2003, 36 (4) : ] [ 13 ],. [ J ]., 2004, 37 ( 7) : [ ZHENG Zhao2ning, L IU De2 shun. Forecasting the investment cost of wind power in China. Electric Power, 2004, 37 (7) : ] [ 14 ]. [M ]. :, [ GU W ei2dong.

10 8 : 1421 New Strategy for the Development of W ind Power in China and the W ind Power Non2grid2connection Theory. Beijing: Chem ical Industry Press, ] [ 15 ]. [ J ]., 2008, ( 2) : [ FANG Chuang2lin. The goal analysis and prospects of wind power development in China. Energy of China, 2008, (12) : ] [ 16 ] L IN Xue2qin, FANG Chuang2lin. Analysis of the development characteristics and dynam ics of the wind power industry in the Bohai2R im Region [ A ]. In: Proceedings of Non2grid2connected W ind Power System s W ind Power Shanghai 2007 [ C ]. The American Scholars Press, W ind Power Resource Appra isa l and D evelopm en t Stage Reg iona l D iv ision of Ch ina WU Feng2lin 1, 2, FANG Chuang2lin 1 (11 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing , China; 21 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China) Abstract: Selecting energy consump tion and econom ic output data of each p rovince during to establish regression equation between energy consump tion and econom ic output, then using the regression equation and equivalent substituted methods to assess the w ind power re2 sources per hour the coal equivalent value, the crude oil equivalent value and the power equiva2 lent value. These equivalent values are respectively tim es, times and times that of the GDP of China in The indicator system of the w ind resource development stage regional p lanning in China was constructed, including energy indicators, w ind resource en2 dowment and other indicators. W ith the methods of Principal Component Analysis ( PCA) and H i2 erarchical C luster Analysis ( HCA), using the indicator system and the concep t equation, Chinese w ind resource development stage could be divided into four phases: op tim ization grow th stage, rap id developm ent stage, slow grow th stage and the initial stage. W hat the basic development strategy at each development stage should be taken was briefly discussed. Key words: w ind power resources; app raisal; development stage; China