Maximization of Historical Severe Precipitation Events over American, Yuba and Feather River Basins
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1 Maximization of Historical Severe Precipitation Events over merican, Yuba and Feather River Basins M. L. Kavvas 1, K. Ishida 1, S. Jang 1, N. Ohara 2, Z.Q.Chen 3, and M. nderson 3 1 University Of California, Davis 2 University of Wyoming 3 California Department of Water Resources
2 Target watersheds Upper Feather River Watershed Yuba River Watershed merican River Watershed
3 300 mb Wind Vector Climatology (1968 to 1996 data) for December 26 January mb Wind Vector nalysis for December 26, 1996 January 3,1997 The upper jet stream across the Pacific during the late December and early January timeframe is typically strongest from just off the sian continent eastward to the International Dateline, between 30 and 35 North (From NWS California Nevada RFC) However, during the December 26, 1996 through January 3, 1997 period, the upper jet stream extended across the eastern Pacific and arched from just north of the Hawaiian Islands toward the Pacific Northwest and northern California
4 n influx of lower latitude moisture played a key role in the generation of significant precipitation across the region. Two distinct moisture sources were evident on the precipitable water analysis between December 26, 1996 and January 3, The first source advected eastward from the western Pacific toward the Hawaiian Islands. The second advected northward from near the equator between 150 and 160 West. These two moisture plumes merged near the Hawaiian Islands, and shifted northeast toward the west coast of the United States. Composite daily mean precipitable water values just off the California coast exceeded 1.6 inches (40 mm) and peaked near 1.8 inches (45 mm), as shown in Figure below. Given the tropical origin of the air mass that accompanied these storms, efficient warm rain processes dominated during the event, reducing the snow pack already in place from previous storms ( From NWS California Nevada RFC). Composite Mean Precipitable Water for January 1,
5 Methodology In northern California, severe storms are mainly caused by a high-moisture atmospheric flow coming from a tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean, and referred to as atmospheric river (R). The contribution of Rs to precipitation over each of the target watersheds is maximized to estimate maximum precipitation.
6 tmospheric boundary condition shifting
7 Methodology 1. Select the historical severe storm events from the reconstructed historical precipitation record at a target waterhed; 2. Identify the Rs that hit California during each of the selected historical severe storm events; 3. Shift the atmospheric BCs with respect to only latitude (Shift1D) and then also with longitude (Shift2D); 4. Shift the atmospheric BCs along an identified R until the basin-average precipitation reaches a maximum and then starts to decrease. 5. Relative humidity maximization Set the relative humidity on the boundaries of the outer simulation domain at 100 %: Shift2D+RH100
8 The numerical atmospheric model for merican, Yuba and Feather River Basins is taken as MM5 (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model) from NCR (National Center for tmospheric Research) and Penn State Univ. because, MM5 is a nonhydrostatic model which can be downscaled even to 1km spatial resolution, which makes it very desirable for downscaling coarse-resolution historical atmospheric data to the scale of merican River Watershed, and be able to capture the impact of steep topography and land surface/land use conditions of merican, Yuba and Feather river basins on the local atmospheric conditions.
9 Regional atmospheric model Model: MM5 Input atmospheric Data: NCR/NCEP Reanalysis I
10 Configuring the atmospheric model Evaluation results: Cumulus Parameterization Cloud Microphysics PBL Schemes Case1 Kain-Fritsch 2 Mixed-Phase (Reisner1) MRF Case2 Grell Mixed-Phase (Reisner1) MRF Case3 Kain-Fritsch 2 Reisner graupel (Reisner2) MRF Case4 Grell Reisner graupel (Reisner2) MRF Case5 Kain-Fritsch 2 Mixed-Phase (Reisner1) Gayno-Seaman Case6 Grell Mixed-Phase (Reisner1) Gayno-Seaman Case7 Kain-Fritsch 2 Reisner graupel (Reisner2) Gayno-Seaman Case8 Grell Reisner graupel (Reisner2) Gayno-Seaman
![Elevation [m]](/docs-images/89/99999946/images/11-3.jpg "Precipitation [mm]")
11 Precipitation on ground surface simulated by MM5 at 3km grid during December 24, 1996 January 3, 1997 Elevation [m] Precipitation [mm] (hourly, 3 km)
12 December 2006
13 Model validation at point locations during the storm event
14 Target watersheds Upper Feather River Watershed Yuba River Watershed merican River Watershed
15 Selection of extreme storm events merican River watershed Event Period Event Period Event Period /14/ /24/ a 02/27/ /06/ a 01/06/ /19/ /07/ /19/ b 03/27/ /04/ b 01/20/ /25/ /12/ /21/ /31/ /16/ /04/ /18/ /17/ /30/ /03/ /22/ a 03/09/ /18/ /21/ /08/ /05/ /16/ b 03/20/ /26/ /29/ /09/ /01/ /08/ /11/ /18/ /15/ /24/ /09/ /20/ /18/ /03/ /01/ /13/ /14/ /26/ /17/ /25/ /07/ /23/ /23/ /02/ /05/ /15/ /11/ /17/ /13/ /20/ a 12/26/ /06/ /30/ /06/ /14/ /19/ b 01/20/ /29/ /19/ /10/ a 03/26/ /09/ /06/ /12/ /24/ /08/ b 04/10/ /17/ /10/ /19/ /20/ /03/ /25/ /05/ /07/ /12/ /10/ /20/ /13/ /20/ /13/ /24/ /27/ /03/ /12/ /23/ /14/ /20/ a 01/12/ /17/ /07/ /19/ /18/ /06/ b 01/19/ /02/ /22/ /28/ /03/ /12/ /12/ /06/ /01/ /08/ /01/ /07/ /19/ /28/ /28/ /04/ /17/ /29/ /05/ /25/1973
16 Selection of extreme storm events Event Period Event Period Event Period Y /14/ /24/1950 Y /10/ /20/1967 Y /07/ /19/1986 Y /23/ /02/1952 Y6901a 01/11/ /16/1969 Y /28/ /08/1991 Y /07/ /19/1952 Y6901b 01/19/ /04/1969 Y /08/ /25/1992 Y /01/ /14/1952 Y /19/ /28/1969 Y /06/ /25/1993 Y /06/ /23/1953 Y /05/ /28/1973 Y /17/ /27/1993 Y /17/ /30/1955 Y /12/ /22/1974 Y /03/ /19/1995 Y /19/ /03/1956 Y7403a 02/26/ /05/1974 Y /09/ /18/1995 Y /12/ /18/1957 Y7403b 03/26/ /04/1974 Y /11/ /18/1995 Y /20/ /20/1957 Y /03/ /22/1978 Y /17/ /25/1996 Y /15/ /25/1957 Y /01/ /08/1978 Y /05/ /15/1996 Y /08/ /24/1959 Y /09/ /20/1980 Y /26/ /06/1997 Y /18/ /13/1960 Y /14/ /26/1980 Y /06/ /12/1999 Y /29/ /05/1961 Y /30/ /07/1980 Y /09/ /19/2000 Y /06/ /23/1962 Y /22/ /01/1981 Y0212a 12/13/ /24/2002 Y /10/ /17/1962 Y /12/ /20/1981 Y0212b 12/26/ /03/2003 Y /29/ /06/1963 Y /14/ /19/1982 Y /14/ /20/2003 Y /17/ /28/1964 Y /10/ /17/1982 Y /16/ /21/2004 Y /19/ /10/1965 Y /25/ /05/1983 Y /18/ /07/2006 Y /13/ /21/1965 Y8602a 01/29/ /06/1986 Y /03/ /12/2008 Y /19/ /25/1966 Y8602b 02/12/ /23/1986 Y /01/ /08/2009 Y /20/ /03/1967 Yuba River watershed
17 Selection of extreme storm events Upper Feather River watershed Event Period Event Period Event Period F /23/ /02/1952 F /19/ /28/1969 F8602b 02/12/ /24/1986 F /07/ /19/1952 F /09/ /22/1973 F /07/ /19/1986 F /06/ /23/1953 F /05/ /27/1973 F /28/ /08/1991 F /15/ /22/1954 F /12/ /22/1974 F /08/ /24/1992 F /17/ /13/1956 F7403a 02/26/ /05/1974 F /06/ /25/1993 F /19/ /03/1956 F7403b 03/27/ /04/1974 F /17/ /27/1993 F /12/ /18/1957 F /21/ /26/1977 F /03/ /18/1995 F /20/ /21/1957 F /03/ /22/1978 F /09/ /17/1995 F /08/ /24/1959 F /05/ /16/1978 F /11/ /18/1995 F /18/ /12/1960 F /09/ /19/1980 F /17/ /25/1996 F /24/ /29/1960 F /14/ /26/1980 F /05/ /15/1996 F /06/ /22/1962 F /30/ /07/1980 F /26/ /05/1997 F /10/ /17/1962 F /12/ /20/1981 F /10/ /19/2000 F /30/ /07/1963 F /14/ /19/1982 F0212a 12/13/ /24/2002 F /17/ /28/1964 F8204a 03/27/ /09/1982 F0212b 12/26/ /03/2003 F /19/ /10/1965 F8204b 04/10/ /17/1982 F /16/ /21/2004 F /13/ /21/1965 F /22/ /01/1983 F /18/ /06/2006 F /19/ /25/1966 F /24/ /16/1983 F /03/ /13/2008 F /10/ /20/1967 F /23/ /02/1984 F /01/ /07/2009 F6901a 01/11/ /16/1969 F8602a 01/29/ /06/1986 F /17/ /29/2010 F6901b 01/19/ /04/1969
18 The maximum 72-hour basin-average precipitation values that were computed by the reconstruction of the 61 selected severe historical storm events over each of the three target watersheds. merican a 6901b a 7403b a 8204b a 9301b a 9503b a 9701b Yuba Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Feather hour basin average precipitation (mm) F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F1001
19 Identification and quantification of the maximum 72-hour basin-average precipitation events based solely on the reconstruction of the 61 selected historical severe storm events over each of the three target watersheds merican Largest Value: 423 mm (16.7 in) in a 6901b a 7403b a 8204b a 9301b a 9503b a 9701b Yuba Largest Value: 459 mm (18.1 in) in Y6210 Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Feather Largest Value: 378 mm (14.9 in) in F hour basin average precipitation (mm) F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F1001
20 Shift2D Figure: Field of maximum 72-hour basin-average precipitation estimates over Upper Feather River watershed computed by shifting the atmospheric boundary conditions in space with respect to latitude and longitude by different degrees. Figure: Precipitable Water together with the wind fields at the 500 hpa level over Pacific Ocean at 6:00hr on January 1, 1997 based on the NCR/NCEP Reanalysis I data.
21 Shift2D merican Historical Shift2D 4.0 o S 4.5 o W Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields are shown on the 500 hpa level from 13:00hr on December 20, 1964 to 13:00hr on December 23, 1964 during the 6412 storm event.
22 Shift2D merican Historical Shift2D 4.0 o S 4.5 o W Figure: Spatial distributions of the absolute value of the water vapor flux together with the horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level from 1:00hr on December 20, 1964 to 0:00hr on December 24, 1964 for a) the historical case and b) the maximized case by Shift2D approach over merican River watershed.
23 Shift2D merican Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72- hour moving summation (line) over merican River watershed during 6412 event, for the historical case (blue) and for the maximized case by Shift2D (red).
24 Shift2D Yuba Historical Shift2D 1.0 o S 1.5 o E Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level are shown from 5:00hr on December 21, 1964 to 5:00hr on December 24, 1964 during the Y6412 storm event.
25 Shift2D Yuba Historical Shift2D 1.0 o S 1.5 o E Figure: Spatial distributions of the absolute value of the water vapor flux together with the horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level at 21:00hr on December 21, 1964.
26 Shift2D Yuba Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-hour moving summation (line) over Yuba River watershed during the 6412 storm event for the historical case (blue) and for the maximized case by Shift2D approach (red).
27 Shift2D Feather Historical Shift2D 6.0 o S 3.0 o W Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level are shown from 15:00hr on December 29, 1996 to 15:00hr on Janurary 1, 1997 during the F9701 storm event.
28 Shift2D Feather Historical Shift2D 6.0 o S 3.0 o W Figure: Spatial distributions of the absolute value of the water vapor flux together with the horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level at 7:00hr on January 1, 1997 for a) the historical case and b) the maximized case by Shift2D approach over Upper Feather River watershed.
29 Shift2D Feather Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-hour moving summation (line) over Upper Feather River watershed during the F9701 storm event, for the historical case (blue) and for the maximized case by Shift2D approach (red).
30 merican Shift2D Yuba Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Feather F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F1001 Figure: 72-hour basin-average precipitation maximized by shifting the atmospheric boundary conditions in space with respect to both latitude and longitude for the selected historical storm events over the target watersheds. 72-hour basin average precipitation (mm)
31 merican Yuba Feather Shift2D Largest Value: 600 mm (23.6 in) in times larger than Shift1D 1.42 times larger than Historical Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Largest Value: 632 mm (24.9 in) in Y times larger than Shift1D 1.38 times larger than Historical F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F1001 Largest Value: 448 mm (17.6 in) in F times larger than Shift1D 1.18 times larger than Historical Figure: 72-hour moving summation of basin average precipitation maximized by Shift2D in the selected storm events over the three targeted watershed. 72-hour moving summation of basin average precipitation (mm)
32 Shift2D+RH100 merican Shift2D 1.0 o N3.0 o E Shift2D+RH100 Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level are shown from 23:00 January 7, 1995 to 23:00 in January 10, 1995 in the 9501 storm event.
33 Shift2D+RH100 merican Shift2D 1.0 o N3.0 o E Shift2D+RH100 Figure: Spatial distributions of the absolute value of the water vapor flux together with the horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level from 0:00hr on January 7, 1995 to 23:00hr on January 10, 1995 for the maximized case a) by Shift2D approach and b) by Shift2D+RH100 approach over merican River watershed.
34 Shift2D+RH100 merican Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-hour moving summation (line) over merican River watershed during the 9501 storm event for the maximized case by Shift2D approach (blue) and by Shift2D+RH100 approach (red).
35 Shift2D+RH100 Yuba Shift2D 1.0 o S 1.5 o E Shift2D+RH100 Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level are shown from 2:00 December 21, 1964 to 2:00 in December 24, 1964 in the Y6412 storm event.
36 Shift2D+RH100 Yuba Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-hour moving summation (line) over Yuba River watershed during the Y6412 storm event for the maximized case by Shift2D approach (blue) and by Shift2D+RH100 approach (red).
37 Shift2D+RH100 Feather Shift2D 6.0 o S 3.0 o W Shift2D+RH100 Figure: The spatial distributions of the accumulated precipitation together with the time-average horizontal wind fields at the 500 hpa level are shown from 14:00 December 29, 1996 to 14:00 in Janurary 1, 1997 in the F9701 storm event.
38 Shift2D+RH100 Feather Figure: Hourly basin-average precipitation (bar) and its 72-hour moving summation (line) over Upper Feather River watershed during the F9701 storm event for the maximized case by Shift2D approach (blue) and by Shift2D+RH100 approach (red).
39 merican Shift+RH a 6901b a 7403b a 8204b a 9301b a 9503b a 9701b Yuba Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Feather F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F1001 Figure: 72-hour moving summation of basin average precipitation maximized by Shift+RH100 in the selected storm events over the three targeted watershed. 72-hour basin average precipitation (mm)
40 merican Shift+RH a 6901b a 7403b a 8204b a 9301b a 9503b a 9701b Maximized Value: 739 mm (29.1 in) in times larger than Shift2D 1.74 times larger than Historical Yuba Y5011 Y5112 Y5201 Y5212 Y5301 Y5512 Y5602 Y5701 Y5702 Y5712 Y5902 Y6002 Y6112 Y6202 Y6210 Y6302 Y6401 Y6412 Y6511 Y6611 Y6701 Y6703 Y6901a Y6901b Y6912 Y7311 Y7401 Y7403a Y7403b Y7801 Y7803 Y8001 Y8002 Y8012 Y8101 Y8111 Y8202 Y8204 Y8303 Y8602a Y8602b Y8603 Y9103 Y9202 Y9301 Y9302 Y9501 Y9503 Y9512 Y9611 Y9612 Y9701 Y9902 Y0002 Y0212a Y0212b Y0303 Y0402 Y0601 Y0801 Y0903 Feather Maximized Value: 690 mm (27.2 in) in Y times larger than Shift2D 1.50 times larger than Historical Maximized Value: 513 mm (20.2 in) in F times larger than Shift2D F5112 F5201 F5301 F5401 F5512 F5602 F5701 F5702 F5902 F6002 F6011 F6202 F6210 F6302 F6401 F6412 F6511 F6611 F6703 F6901a F6901b F6912 F7301 F7311 F7401 F7403a F7403b F7712 F7801 F7802 F8001 F8002 F8012 F8111 F8202 F8204a F8204b F8301 F8303 F8312 F8602a F8602b F8603 F9103 F9202 F9301 F9302 F9501 F9503 F9512 F9611 F9612 F9701 F0002 F0212a F0212b F0402 F0601 F0801 F0903 F times larger than Historical Figure: 72-hour moving summation of basin average precipitation maximized by Shift+RH100 in the selected storm events over the three targeted watershed. 72-hour basin average precipitation (mm)
41 Comparison with PMP values over RW pproach MP value Shift2D Shift2D + RH100 Report U.S. Weather Bureau- HMR36 (1961) Corrigan et al. HMR59 (1999) USCE (2001) 600 mm 739 mm PMP value 800 mm 726 mm 752 mm
42 CONCLUSIONS 1. By shifting the 3D atmospheric boundary conditions in the meridional and zonal directions and then elevating the relative humidity at the model boundaries to 100%, the developed method determines the optimal location and orientation of the moisture convergence mechanism for a particular severe storm and creates the saturated conditions for the storm in order to contribute the maximum precipitation from that storm to the specified geographical region. 2. The developed method is applicable to any geographical region where the severe precipitation events can be identified by particular moisture convergence mechanisms. 3. The shifting of the 3D atmospheric boundary conditions also optimizes the direction and the speed of the corresponding wind field once the moisture convergence field s location and orientation are optimized to produce the maximum precipitation over a target region.
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