Talk Overview. Concepts. Climatology. Monitoring. Applications

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1 Atmospheric Rivers

2 Talk Overview Concepts Climatology Monitoring Applications

3 Satellite View Where is the storm? Where is the impact? Atmospheric Rivers Plume or fire hose of tropical moisture Heavy precipitation and possibly flooding aka Pineapple Express Forecast CA Hawaii Pineapple Express Weather Channel Dec 17,

4 Satellite Observation of Water Vapor Atmospheric River North America

5 The Storm of 4-5 Jan 2008 Note that major impacts were focused >500 miles south of the Low pressure center in this storm. L 32 ft waves Atmospheric river GOES IR image of major West Coast storm Time = 0030 UTC 5 January 2008 Low pressure center is off WA coast 6-10 ft snow 7-13 in rain This differs significantly from hurricanes, but the impacts are enormous and spread over a large area Many major impacts are associated with the landfall of the atmospheric river element of the storm. Slide from M. Ralph

6 Number of Historical Storms with 3 Days of Precipitation of 12 inches or more West coast precipitation totals during atmospheric river events can rival those from hurricanes NOTE: Expanded color bar, but more sites still qualify CAT 3 is > 30 cm (12 in) in 3 days

7 Key Phenomena Affecting California Water Supply/Flooding: Storm Track changes Cyclogensis L Flooding & water supply MJO/Tropical Convection Easterly Wave ENSO The most extreme CA storm would result from a rare alignment of key processes

8 Topography Matters

9 Record flooding Modest flooding Complications: Rain shadowing When atmospheric rivers strike coastal mountains (Ralph et al. 2003) Air ascends coastal mountains, water vapor condenses, heavy rainfall occurs Details of the atmospheric river determine which watersheds flood

10 Atmospheric Rivers are not just flood producers. They are a key part of the water supply system

11 California s precipitation is uniquely variable Std Dev of Annual Precipitation Mean Annual Precipitation Higher values are higher variability Source: Dettinger et al (2011)

12 Storms and California Water Supply Just a few storms each year are the core of California s water supplies Dettinger et al, 2011

13 Decadal scale precipitation variability tied to Atmospheric River landfall variability Source: Dettinger and Cayan (2014)

14 Northern Sierra 8 Station Index Lower elevation mountains Annual Average: 50 inches Maximum Year (1983): 88.5 inches Minimum Year (1924): 17.1 inches Period of Record Present Average of: Mt. Shasta City Shasta Dam Mineral Brush Creek RS Quincy Sierraville RS Pacific House Blue Canyon

15 Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Accumulation 1/3 of WY total fell in 7 days

16 Monitoring

17 Hydro-Meterological Testbed HMT 17

18 Atmospheric River Observation at Bodega Bay March 2013 Building RASS (radio acoustic sounding system) Completed Observation Site RASS (radio acoustic sounding system) Antenna array to measure wind speed

19 Water vapor thresholds are important to precipitation processes Values in cm Values in cm 12/27/2013 1/29/2014

20 02/05/ :15 UTC

21

22

23

24 2 AR events in 5 days Rapid rises on rivers Minor flooding due to dry conditions Sierra Barrier Jet Present

25 Eel River at Fernbridge Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar

26 Applications

27 Developing Flood Metrics for ARs Flux, Duration, and Direction play important roles Antecedent watershed conditions important Spatial Extent of Storm Important Number and timing of storms important Work to be done on aligning AR thresholds with flood thresholds

28 Current Application Areas Forecast and Warning Planning and Climate Change Seasonal Forecasts

29 Acknowledgements UC Davis Hydrologic Research Laboratory Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CNAP/SWCSC) Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory USGS

30 Questions?

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