DEPARTMENT OF EARTH & CLIMATE SCIENCES Name SAN FRANCISCO STATE UNIVERSITY Nov 29, ERTH 360 Test #2 200 pts

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1 DEPARTMENT OF EARTH & CLIMATE SCIENCES Name SAN FRANCISCO STATE UNIVERSITY Nov 29, 2018 ERTH 360 Test #2 200 pts Each question is worth 4 points. Indicate your BEST CHOICE for each question on the Scantron Form. Turn in and and put your name on your Scantron Form. Part 1a. Impact of Global Warming on California Precipitation Climatology. Questions 1 through During the 21 st Century, snowfall is expected to decrease over the Sierra Nevada because a. Precipitation is expected to decrease over the Sierra Nevada. b. Colder temperatures are expected over the Sierra Nevada. c. Higher precipitation variability is expected over the Sierra Nevada d. Snowlines are expected to be about 2000 feet higher than they are now. e. (a) and (b) both. 2. During the 21 st century, precipitation a. is expected to decrease everywhere except in far Northern California. b. is expected to stay the same everywhere in California. c. is expected to occur during the summer. d. is expected to decrease everywhere in California. e. is expected to increase everywhere in California except in far southeastern California. 3. During the 21 st century, temporal variability of precipitation in California a. is expected to decrease in all of California. b. is expected to be small in all areas. c. is expected to be about the same as it was in the mid 20 th century. d. is expected to increase in all of California. e. (a) and (b) both. 4. Temporal Variability of precipitation is generally estimated on the basis of a. the seasonal normal. b. the coefficient of variation. c. the value of the 30 year normal. d. the correlation coefficient. e. the 100-yr storm. 5. During the 21 st century, extreme (heavy) rainfall events in California a. are expected to increase. b. will be related to an increase in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river events. c. are expected to decrease. d. are expected to be less frequent. e. (a) and (b) both. 1

2 Part 1b. Hurricane Michael. Questions 6 through 9 Figure 1: Weather Observations at Apalachicola, Florida on 10 October Figure 1 shows the weather observations at Apalachicola, Florida on 10 October Winds first exceeded hurricane strength at a. all times. b. 12:05 PM. c. 12:12 PM. d. no time. e. 12:24 PM. 7. The relative humidity at ground level was 100% a. only for times at which Heavy Rain and Squalls were observed. b. only for times the wind was ENE. c. only for times the visibility was less than ¼ mile. d. at all times for which temperature and dew point data are shown. e. none of the times. 2

3 Figure 2: Sustained wind speed (blue), peak wind gust (red), and air pressure (green) at Panama City, Florida for the period October 6 through October 11, Based upon your examination of Fig. 2, the eye of Michael began its direct passage over Panama City a. at around 18 UTC on October 6. b. at around 18 UTC on October 7. c. at around 18 UTC on October 8. d. at around 18 UTC on October 9. e. at around 18 UTC on October Based upon your examination of Fig. 2, winds exceeded the criterion for hurricane strength a. at all times for the data shown in Fig. 2. b. at around 18 UTC on October 10. c. at around 18 UTC on October 7. d. at around 18 UTC on October 5. e. at no time for the data shown in Fig. 2. 3

4 Part 2. Use and Interpretation of Weather Maps Figure 3 is the 300 mb chart for 06 UTC 31 October Note Lines A, B, C, D, and E and also note the Arrows Labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Questions 10 through 13 refer to this figure. Figure mb Chart for 0600 UTC 31 October On Fig. 3, a ridge is at Line(s) a. B and A (both) b. A and E (both) c. C d. D e. A 11. On Fig. 3, a (surface dynamic high would be located at a. A and E (both) b. D and E (both) c. C d. D e. B 12. On Fig. 3, divergence is probably occurring at Location a. A b. B c. C d. D e. E 4

5 13. On the basis of your interpretation of Fig. 3, the arrow which best shows the position of the polar jet stream is a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 d. 4 e. 5 Figure 4 is the surface chart for 12 UTC 9 November Note the pressure systems at A and B and the frontal lines at locations a, b and c. Questions 14 through 16 refer to this figure. Figure 4. Surface Chart, 1200 UTC 9 November On Fig. 4, the pressure system at A is a. a warm core low b. a dynamic low c. a dynamic high d. a wave cyclone e. b. and d. 15. On Fig. 4, Line a is a(n) a. Occluded Front b. Stationary Front c. Cold Front d. Warm Front e. Dry Line 5

6 16. On Fig. 4, Line c is probably a a. Occluded Front b. Stationary Front c. Cold Front d. Warm Front e. Dry Line Figure 5 is the Meteogram for Saint Louis, 2000 UTC 8 to 2000 UTC 9 November Questions 17 through 19 refer to this figure Figure 5. Meteogram for Saint Louis, 2000 UTC 8 to 2000 UTC 9 November The direct evidence (seen on the meteogram given in Fig. 5) of a frontal passage at Saint Louis is a. the wind shift between 8 UTC and 9 UTC. b. the lowest pressure that occurred around 8 to 9 UTC. c. the rainfall that occurred between 9 UTC and 14 UTC d. a., b., and c. above. e. sharp temperature drop between 9 UTC and 14 UTC 18. The indirect evidence (seen on the meteogram given in Fig. 5) of a frontal passage at Saint Louis is a. the wind shift between 8 UTC and 9 UTC. b. the lowest pressure that occurred around 8 to 9 UTC. c. the rainfall that occurred between 9 UTC and 14 UTC d. a., b., and c. above. 6

7 e. sharp temperature drop between 9 UTC and 14 UTC 19. The evidence (seen on the meteogram given in Fig. 5) suggests that the front passing Saint Louis was a. a cold front. b. a warm front. c. a stationary front. d. an occluded front. e. no front passed Saint Louis. Part 3. Statistical Measures Important in Characterizing the Climate of an Area 20. The term normal (in the context of normal rainfall or normal temperature) is a. the usual rainfall or temperature expected in an area. b. defined as the average rainfall or temperature for the whole period of record. c. defined as the mean for the 30 yr period ending in the last year of the last decade (currently ) d. a measure of correlation. e. the standard deviation expressed as a percentage. 21. Correlation measures the degree to which a. the given relationship between the events is not due to chance alone and there is a systematic reason for the relationship. b. the average rainfall or temperature for the whole period of record does not change. c. the mean for the 30 yr period ending in the last year of the last decade (currently ) reflects the long term mean. d. the occurrence of one event is linked, by statistical test to the occurrence of another event. e. the standard deviation is expressed as a percentage. 22. Which of the following measures the range (either as a number or a ratio) of precipitation values relative to the average that can be expected 67% of the time (meaning, 67% of the years in the long term record will have rainfall values within the range) a. standard deviation b. correlation coefficient. c. coefficient of variation d. extreme values. e. (a) and (c) above. 23. In the context of correlation, the given relationship between the events is not due to chance alone and there is a systematic reason for the relationship is the definition for a. average or mean value. b. correlation coefficient. c. coefficient of variation d. statistical significance e. standard deviation 7

8 Part 4. California Rainfall Variability Refer to Figure 6, a diagram that shows the seasonal rainfall for the period for the period of record for Downtown San Francisco. Questions 24 through 26 refer to this chart. Figure 6. Seasonal Rainfall, San Francisco, Downtown, Period of Record 24. The term seasonal rainfall implies a. that the rainfall shown is only for the winter season. b. that the rainfall shown is only for the summer season. c. that the rainfall shown comes seasonally. d. that the rainfall shown is calculated for the period July 1 of one year to June 30 of the next. e. that the rainfall shown is calculated only for the winter season. 25. The dashed red lines on shown on Fig. 6 encompass approximately a. 67% of the seasonal rainfall totals. b. the extreme values. c. the wettest year. d. the driest year. e. the correlation coefficient. 8

9 26. The coefficient of variation shown on Fig. 6 was obtained by a. subtracting the standard deviation from 100. b. dividing the temperature by the dew point temperature. c. comparing San Francisco s rainfall with that of New York d. multiplying the correlation coefficient with the rainfall. e. dividing the standard deviation by the mean seasonal rainfall. 27. Two stations report the same average annual rainfall. One station reports a coefficient of variation of 50% and the other a coefficient of variation of 20%. The station with the higher coefficient of variation a. has more than 67% of its yearly rainfall totals either greater or lesser than one standard deviation and,therefore has higher rainfall variability. b. has annual rainfall totals that depart more greatly from the average value and, therefore has higher rainfall variability. c. has lower rainfall variability. d. has higher areal variabilty of rainfall. e. has a lower standard deviation of rainfall. Fig. 7 shows the 30 year running mean of seasonal rainfall for downtown San Francisco. Questions 28 tthrough 30 refer to this chart. Fig. 7, a chart that shows the 30 year running mean of seasonal rainfall for downtown San Francisco. Questions 27 to 30 refer to this chart. 9

10 28. The 30 year running mean smooths out the season-to-season rainfall variations so that longer term shifts in climate can be deduced. a. T b. F 29. The information shown on Fig. 7 suggests that a. rainfall variability was great in the mid 20 th century. b. the standard deviation of rainfall was great in the 20 th century. c. the late 19 th century was relatively dry. d. the 20 th century was relatively dry. e. the climate is getting drier currently. 30. One way of interpreting the graph given in Fig. 7 is that it shows the variation in the normal rainfall over the period shown. a. T b. F Fig. 8 is a chart that shows the coefficient of variation for the 30 year running means given in the previous figure. Questions 31 and 32 refer to this chart. Fig. 8, a chart that shows the coefficient of variation for the 30 year running means given in the previous figure. Questions 31 to 37 refer to this chart 10

11 31. The first value plotted on Fig. 8 for the 30 years ending in is This means that a. 67% of the seasonal values during that 30 year period varied plus or minus 38% from the long term average. b. 33% of the seasonal values during that 30 year period varied plus or minus 38% from the long term average. c. the standard deviation was 0.38 d. the long term average was accurate only 38% of the time. e. the seasonal rainfall was highly reliable 38% of the time. 32. An examination of Figs. 7 and 8 together suggests that in recent years (compared to the mi 20 th century) a. the seasonal rainfall has increased and that the average value of rainfall has become a more reliable indicator of the rainfall that might occur in any given year. b. precipitation has decreased and so too has the rainfall variability. c. the rainfall variability has increased but that the mean seasonal rainfall has decreased. d. the seasonal rainfall has increased, but that the average value of rainfall has become a less reliable indicator of the rainfall that might occur in any given year. e. the tendency for extreme values to occur has decreased. Part 5: Summer and Fall Weather Patterns 33. The Mediterranean Climate stations in California experience a very dry summer because a. thunderstorms, a key feature of the summer climate of areas further east, do not occur usually. b. the polar jet stream is not present during the summer. c. the cold fronts that pass are usually not associated with clouds. d. California is a desert. e. (a) and (b) above. 34. The average monthly rainfall for January, the wettest month on average, at San Francisco Downtown is about 4.5 inches. The average monthly rainfall for the wettest month (July) at Cherrapunji, India (a station that experiences the rainfall associated with the Asian monsoon) is roughly a. 1 inch b. 10 inches c. 100 inches d inches e inches Figure 9 shows the mean July surface (1000 mb) temperature for the period Questions 35 to 37 refer to this chart. 11

12 Figure 9. Average surface (1000 mb) July temperatures (Kelvin) for the period If there were no other factors that would influence pressure patterns, Fig. 9 suggests that, at the SURFACE a. there would be a low pressure area at A and B. b. there would be a low pressure area at A. c. there would be a high pressure area at B. d. there would be a low pressure area at B. e. there would be a high pressure area at A and B. 36. The area of maximum surface heating seen in Figure 9 is not in the geometric center of the North American continent because a. of the influence of the mountains isolating the Great Basin/Southwest US from the moderating influences of the oceans. b. of upwelling. c. of the Gulf Stream. d. of the California Current. e. b. and d. above are correct. 37. The colder temperatures (relative to those on the continent at a given latitude) seen in Figure 9 are more extreme along the West Coast because a. of the influence of the mountains isolating the Great Basin/Southwest US from the moderating influences of the oceans. b. of upwelling. c. of the Gulf Stream. d. of the California Current. e. b. and d. above are correct. 12

13 Figure 10a, 10b, and 10c give the surface and 300 mb weather charts, and text of National Weather Service Warning. respectively, for the morning of 26 October Questions 38 to 42 relate to these figures. Figure 10a top(left) and Figure 10b top (right). Surface and 300 mb weather charts for the morning of 26 October 2011 and 10c Text of Warning Issued by the National Weather Service on the night of 25 October

14 38. Fig. 10a and 10b could be used to illustrate a. the weather pattern associated with advection fog. b. the weather pattern associated with summer thunderstorms. c. the weather pattern associated with tule fog. d. the weather pattern associated with snow. e. the weather pattern associated with Diablo Winds. 39. Figure 10c is the text for a a. High Wind Warning b. Red Flag Warning c. Diablo Wind Warning d. Santa Ana Wind Warning a. Fire Weather Warning 40. Diablo winds are hot because they sink from high elevation to low elevation, warming compressionally, and because a. they are hot to begin with, originating over the Great Basin in the warm season. b. they come from the warm tropics. c. they are associated with a warm front. d. they are associated with low dew point temperatures. e. they come from the Gulf of Mexico. 41. Diablo winds are associated with low relative humidity because they are associated with high temperatures and low dew point temperatures to begin with and because, as they sink to sealevel, the difference between the temperature and dew point gets even larger. a. T b. F 42. The Diablo Wind weather pattern can occur any time during the year. Yet, these winds are often associated with fires only during the late summer and fall. Which of the following represents your best estimate of the factor that might be important in the late summer and fall absent in other times of the year. a. the impact of irrigation. b. the peak frequency of Diablo Winds comes after the normal six months dry season and the vegetation tends to be dried out. c. the migration of various species of animals. d. that there is a relation of fires to highways. e. that there is a the relation of fires to transmission towers. Part 6. Winter Patterns Figures 11 and 12 show the surface weather map and a meteogram for Modesto, CA on November 26, 2012, charts that we discussed in class. On this day, the jet stream was well north of California, over British Columbia. Questions 43 to 50 relate to these figures. 14

15 Figure 11. Plot of surface weather observations in the Bay Area at 17 UTC November 26, 2012 Figure 12. Surface weather map for 12 UTC November 26, The high pressure area on Fig. 12 over the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin is probably a a. thermal high. b. dynamic low. c. wave cyclone. d. dynamic high. e. North American Thermal Low. 15

16 44. The map (and the data on it) given in Figure 12 suggests that Diablo Winds were occurring in the Bay Area. a. T b. F 45. The weather observations for the stations around the Bay Area (shown in Fig. 12) are mostly reporting a. very high dew points. b. thunderstorms. c. strong winds. d. light rain. e. moderate or heavy fog. 46. On Fig. 11, at 09 UTC 26 November, Modesto reported light rain. a. T b. F 47. On Fig. 11, at 12 UTC 26 November, Modesto reported a. dust storm. b. heavy drizzle. c. moderate snow. d. moderate rain. e. moderate fog. 48. On Fig. 11, which of the following Modesto observations is not a recognized circumstance in the development of radiation fog in the hours leading up to 12 UTC a. low to no visibility. b. pressure of around 1015 mb. c. small to no difference between temperature and dew point temperature. d. light to calm winds. e. clear skies. 49. Note the sharp temperature drop seen in Fig. 11 around 0000 UTC 26 November. This was because a. a thunderstorm was nearby. b. winds were northwesterly. c. a cold front went through. d. the sun went down. e. the pressure was around 1014 mb. 50. The local name given to the fog reported in Modesto on 26 November is a. advection fog. b. tule fog. c. steam fog. d. upslope fog. e. frontal fog. 16

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